Abstract: Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.
Abstract: Mobile applications are being used to perform a wide variety of tasks in day-to-day life, ranging from checking email to controlling your home heating. Application developers have recognized the potential to transform a smart device into a medical device, by using a mobile medical application i.e. a mobile phone or a tablet. When initially conceived these mobile medical applications performed basic functions e.g. BMI calculator, accessing reference material etc.; however, increasing complexity offers clinicians and patients a range of functionality. As this complexity and functionality increases, so too does the potential risk associated with using such an application. Examples include any applications that provide the ability to inflate and deflate blood pressure cuffs, as well as applications that use patient-specific parameters and calculate dosage or create a dosage plan for radiation therapy. If an unapproved mobile medical application is marketed by a medical device organization, then they face significant penalties such as receiving an FDA warning letter to cease the prohibited activity, fines and possibility of facing a criminal conviction. Regulatory bodies have finalized guidance intended for mobile application developers to establish if their applications are subject to regulatory scrutiny. However, regulatory controls appear contradictory with the approaches taken by mobile application developers who generally work with short development cycles and very little documentation and as such, there is the potential to stifle further improvements due to these regulations. The research presented as part of this paper details how by adopting development techniques, such as agile software development, mobile medical application developers can meet regulatory requirements whilst still fostering innovation.
Abstract: Bridge condition assessment and rating provide essential information needed for bridge management. This paper reviews bridge inspection and condition rating practices and introduces a defect-based urgency index. The index is estimated at the element-level based on the extent and severity of the different defects typical to the bridge element. The urgency index approach has the following advantages: (1) It facilitates judgment submission, i.e. instead of rating the bridge element with a specific linguistic overall expression (which can be subjective and used differently by different people), the approach is based on assessing the defects; (2) It captures multiple defects that can be present within a deteriorated element; and (3) It reflects how critical the element is through quantifying critical defects and their severity. The approach can be further developed and validated. It is expected to be useful for practical purposes as an early-warning system for critical bridge elements.
Abstract: Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.
Abstract: Introduction: Student nurses must develop skills in observation, communication and reflection as well as public health knowledge from their first year of training. This paper will explain a method developed for students to collect their own findings about public health in urban areas. These areas are both rich in the history of old public health that informs the content of many traditional public health walks, but are also locations where new public health concerns about chronic disease are concentrated. The learning method explained in this paper enables students to collect their own data and write original work as first year students. Examples of their findings will be given. Methodology: In small groups, health care students are instructed to walk in neighbourhoods near to the hospitals they will soon attend as apprentice nurses. On their walks, they wander slowly, engage in conversations, and enter places open to the public. As they drift, they observe with all five senses in the real three dimensional world to collect data for their reflective accounts of old and new public health. They are encouraged to stop for refreshments and taste, as well as look, hear, smell, and touch while on their walk. They reflect as a group and later develop an individual reflective account in which they write up their deep reflections about what they observed on their walk. In preparation for their walk, they are encouraged to look at studies of quality of Life and other neighbourhood statistics as well as undertaking a risk assessment for their walk. Findings: Reflecting on their walks, students apply theoretical concepts around social determinants of health and health inequalities to develop their understanding of communities in the neighbourhoods visited. They write about the treasured historical architecture made of stone, bronze and marble which have outlived those who built them; but also how the streets are used now. The students develop their observations into thematic analyses such as: what we drink as illustrated by the empty coke can tossed into a now disused drinking fountain; the shift in home-life balance illustrated by streets where families once lived over the shop which are now walked by commuters weaving around each other as they talk on their mobile phones; and security on the street, with CCTV cameras placed at regular intervals, signs warning trespasses and barbed wire; but little evidence of local people watching the street. Conclusion: In evaluations of their first year, students have reported the health walk as one of their best experiences. The innovative approach was commended by the UK governing body of nurse education and it received a quality award from the nurse education funding body. This approach to education allows students to develop skills in the real world and write original work.
Abstract: To assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks, this study explores the application of Building Information Modeling in establishing the ‘BIM based Energy Management Support System’ (BIM-EMSS). The BIM-EMSS consists of six components: (1) sensors installed for each occupant and each equipment, (2) electricity sub-meters (constantly logging lighting, HVAC, and socket electricity consumptions of each room), (3) BIM models of all rooms within individual departments’ facilities, (4) data warehouse (for storing occupancy status and logged electricity consumption data), (5) building energy management system that provides energy managers with various energy management functions, and (6) energy simulation tool (such as eQuest) that generates real time 'standard energy consumptions' data against which 'actual energy consumptions' data are compared and energy efficiency evaluated. Through the building energy management system, the energy manager is able to (a) have 3D visualization (BIM model) of each room, in which the occupancy and equipment status detected by the sensors and the electricity consumptions data logged are displayed constantly; (b) perform real time energy consumption analysis to compare the actual and standard energy consumption profiles of a space; (c) obtain energy consumption anomaly detection warnings on certain rooms so that energy management corrective actions can be further taken (data mining technique is employed to analyze the relation between space occupancy pattern with current space equipment setting to indicate an anomaly, such as when appliances turn on without occupancy); and (d) perform historical energy consumption analysis to review monthly and annually energy consumption profiles and compare them against historical energy profiles. The BIM-EMSS was further implemented in a research lab in the Department of Architecture of NTUST in Taiwan and implementation results presented to illustrate how it can be used to assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks.
Abstract: Flash flood is occurred in short time rainfall interval:
from 1 hour to 12 hours in small and medium basins. Flash floods
typically have two characteristics: large water flow and big flow
velocity. Flash flood is occurred at hill valley site (strip of lowland of
terrain) in a catchment with large enough distribution area, steep
basin slope, and heavy rainfall. The risk of flash floods is determined
through Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index (GBFFPI). Flash
Flood Potential Index (FFPI) is determined through terrain slope
flash flood index, soil erosion flash flood index, land cover flash
floods index, land use flash flood index, rainfall flash flood index.
Determining GBFFPI, each cell in a map can be considered as outlet
of a water accumulation basin. GBFFPI of the cell is determined as
basin average value of FFPI of the corresponding water accumulation
basin. Based on GIS, a tool is developed to compute GBFFPI using
ArcObjects SDK for .NET. The maps of GBFFPI are built in two
types: GBFFPI including rainfall flash flood index (real time flash
flood warning) or GBFFPI excluding rainfall flash flood index.
GBFFPI Tool can be used to determine a high flash flood potential
site in a large region as quick as possible. The GBFFPI is improved
from conventional FFPI. The advantage of GBFFPI is that GBFFPI is
taking into account the basin response (interaction of cells) and
determines more true flash flood site (strip of lowland of terrain)
while conventional FFPI is taking into account single cell and does
not consider the interaction between cells. The GBFFPI Map of
QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue is built and exported to
Google Earth. The obtained map proves scientific basis of GBFFPI.
Abstract: Landfill waste is a common problem as it has an
economic and environmental impact even if it is closed. Landfill
waste contains a high density of various persistent compounds such
as heavy metals, organic and inorganic materials. As persistent
compounds are slowly-degradable or even non-degradable in the
environment, they often produce sublethal or even lethal effects on
aquatic organisms. The aims of the present study were to estimate
sublethal effects of the Kairiai landfill (WGS: 55°55‘46.74“,
23°23‘28.4“) leachate on the locomotor activity of rainbow trout
Oncorhynchus mykiss juveniles using the original system package
developed in our laboratory for automated monitoring, recording and
analysis of aquatic organisms’ activity, and to determine patterns of
fish behavioral response to sublethal effects of leachate. Four
different concentrations of leachate were chosen: 0.125; 0.25; 0.5 and
1.0 mL/L (0.0025; 0.005; 0.01 and 0.002 as part of 96-hour LC50,
respectively). Locomotor activity was measured after 5, 10 and 30
minutes of exposure during 1-minute test-periods of each fish (7 fish
per treatment). The threshold-effect-concentration amounted to 0.18
mL/L (0.0036 parts of 96-hour LC50). This concentration was found
to be even 2.8-fold lower than the concentration generally assumed to
be “safe” for fish. At higher concentrations, the landfill leachate
solution elicited behavioral response of test fish to sublethal levels of
pollutants. The ability of the rainbow trout to detect and avoid
contaminants occurred after 5 minutes of exposure. The intensity of
locomotor activity reached a peak within 10 minutes, evidently
decreasing after 30 minutes. This could be explained by the
physiological and biochemical adaptation of fish to altered
environmental conditions. It has been established that the locomotor
activity of juvenile trout depends on leachate concentration and
exposure duration. Modeling of these parameters showed that the
activity of juveniles increased at higher leachate concentrations, but
slightly decreased with the increasing exposure duration. Experiment
results confirm that the behavior of rainbow trout juveniles is a
sensitive and rapid biomarker that can be used in combination with
the system for fish behavior monitoring, registration and analysis to
determine sublethal concentrations of pollutants in ambient water.
Further research should be focused on software improvement aimed
to include more parameters of aquatic organisms’ behavior and to
investigate the most rapid and appropriate behavioral responses in
different species. In practice, this study could be the basis for the
development and creation of biological early-warning systems
(BEWS).
Abstract: This paper focuses on the orbit avoidance strategy of
the optical remote sensing satellite. The optical remote sensing
satellite, moving along the Sun-synchronous orbit, is equipped with
laser warning equipment to alert CCD camera from laser attacks. This
paper explores the strategy of satellite avoidance to protect the CCD
camera and also the satellite. The satellite could evasive to several
target points in the orbital coordinates of virtual satellite. The so-called
virtual satellite is a passive vehicle which superposes the satellite at the
initial stage of avoidance. The target points share the consistent cycle
time and the same semi-major axis with the virtual satellite, which
ensures the properties of the satellite’s Sun-synchronous orbit remain
unchanged. Moreover, to further strengthen the avoidance capability
of satellite, it can perform multi-target-points avoid maneuvers. On
occasions of fulfilling the satellite orbit tasks, the orbit can be restored
back to virtual satellite through orbit maneuvers. There into, the avoid
maneuvers adopts pulse guidance. In addition, the fuel consumption is
optimized. The avoidance strategy discussed in this article is
applicable to optical remote sensing satellite when it is encountered
with hostile attack of space-based laser anti-satellite.
Abstract: Myocardial infarction is one of the leading causes of
death in the world. Some of these deaths occur even before the
patient reaches the hospital. Myocardial infarction occurs as a result
of impaired blood supply. Because the most of these deaths are due to
coronary artery disease, hence the awareness of the warning signs of
a heart attack is essential. Some heart attacks are sudden and intense,
but most of them start slowly, with mild pain or discomfort, then
early detection and successful treatment of these symptoms is vital to
save them. Therefore, importance and usefulness of a system
designing to assist physicians in early diagnosis of the acute heart
attacks is obvious. The main purpose of this study would be to enable patients to
become better informed about their condition and to encourage them
to seek professional care at an earlier stage in the appropriate
situations. For this purpose, the data were collected on 711 heart
patients in Iran hospitals. 28 attributes of clinical factors can be
reported by patients; were studied. Three logistic regression models
were made on the basis of the 28 features to predict the risk of heart
attacks. The best logistic regression model in terms of performance
had a C-index of 0.955 and with an accuracy of 94.9%. The variables,
severe chest pain, back pain, cold sweats, shortness of breath, nausea
and vomiting, were selected as the main features.
Abstract: At the present time, awareness, education, computer
simulation and information systems protection are very serious and
relevant topics. The article deals with perspectives and possibilities of
implementation of emergence or natural hazard threats into the
system which is developed for communication among members of
crisis management staffs. The Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute
with its System of Integrated Warning Service resents the largest
usable base of information. National information systems are connected to foreign systems,
especially to flooding emergency systems of neighboring countries,
systems of European Union and international organizations where the
Czech Republic is a member. Use of outputs of particular information
systems and computer simulations on a single communication
interface of information system for communication among members
of crisis management staff and setting the site interoperability in the
net will lead to time savings in decision-making processes in solving
extraordinary events and crisis situations. Faster managing of an
extraordinary event or a crisis situation will bring positive effects and
minimize the impact of negative effects on the environment.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose moving object detection
method which is helpful for driver to safely take his/her car out of
parking lot. When moving objects such as motorbikes, pedestrians,
the other cars and some obstacles are detected at the rear-side of host
vehicle, the proposed algorithm can provide to driver warning. We
assume that the host vehicle is just before departure. Gaussian
Mixture Model (GMM) based background subtraction is basically
applied. Pre-processing such as smoothing and post-processing as
morphological filtering are added. We examine “which color space
has better performance for detection of moving objects?” Three color
spaces including RGB, YCbCr, and Y are applied and compared, in
terms of detection rate. Through simulation, we prove that RGB
space is more suitable for moving object detection based on
background subtraction.
Abstract: The Figaro AM-1 sensor module which employs TGS
2600 model gas sensor in air quality assessment was used. The
system was coupled with a microprocessor that enables sensor
module to create warning message via telephone. This low cot sensor
system’s performance was compared with a DiagNose II commercial
electronic nose system. Both air quality sensor and electronic nose
system employ metal oxide chemical gas sensors. In the study
experimental setup, data acquisition methods for electronic nose
system, and performance of the low cost air quality system were
evaluated and explained.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a system for preventing gas
risks through the use of wireless communication modules and
intelligent gas safety appliances. Our system configuration consists of
an automatic extinguishing system, detectors, a wall-pad, and a
microcomputer controlled micom gas meter to monitor gas flow and
pressure as well as the occurrence of earthquakes. The automatic fire
extinguishing system checks for both combustible gaseous leaks and
monitors the environmental temperature, while the detector array
measures smoke and CO gas concentrations. Depending on detected
conditions, the micom gas meter cuts off an inner valve and generates
a warning, the automatic fire-extinguishing system cuts off an external
valve and sprays extinguishing materials, or the sensors generate
signals and take further action when smoke or CO are detected.
Information on intelligent measures taken by the gas safety appliances
and sensors are transmitted to the wall-pad, which in turn relays this as
real time data to a server that can be monitored via an external network
(BcN) connection to a web or mobile application for the management
of gas safety. To validate this smart-home gas management system, we
field-tested its suitability for use in Korean apartments under several
scenarios.
Abstract: This paper describes the issues relating to the role of
the flash flood early warning system provided by the Malaysian
Government to the communities in Malaysia, specifically during the
flash flood disaster in the Cameron Highlands, Malaysia. Normally,
flash flood disasters can occur as a result of heavy rainfall in an area,
and that water may possibly cause flooding via streams or narrow
channels. The focus of this study is the flash flood disaster which
occurred on 23 October 2013 in the Cameron Highlands, and as a
result the Sungai Bertam overflowed after the release of water from
the Sultan Abu Bakar Dam. This release of water from the dam
caused flash flooding which led to damage to properties and also the
death of residents and livestock in the area. Therefore, the effort of
this study is to identify the perceptions of the flash flood victims on
the role of the flash flood early warning system. For the purposes of
this study, data were gathered through face-to-face interviews from
those flood victims who were willing to participate in this study. This
approach helped the researcher to glean in-depth information about
their feelings and perceptions of the role of the flash flood early
warning system offered by the government. The data were analysed
descriptively and the findings show that the respondents of 22 flood
victims believe strongly that the flash flood early warning system was
confusing and dysfunctional, and communities had failed to response
positively to it. Therefore, most of the communities were not well
prepared for the releasing of water from the dam which caused
property damage, and 3 people were killed in the Cameron Highland
flash flood disaster.
Abstract: Flash Floods, together with landslides, are a common
natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills.
One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early
Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation
strategy for natural disasters.
In this work we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early
Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more
ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early
warning of landslides.
To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing
Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general
architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus
on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical
models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.
Abstract: Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose
the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the
distressed extent differs substantially among different financial
distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed”
and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article
to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper
explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method.
First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate
governance and market factors to measure the probability of various
financial distress events based on multinomial logit models.
Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the
difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work
further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle
index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage
models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and
two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial
distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared
with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the
one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the
two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the
two-stage model.
Abstract: A new concept of response system is proposed for
filling the gap that exists in reducing vulnerability during immediate
response to natural disasters. Real Time Early Response Systems
(RTERSs) incorporate real time information as feedback data for
closing control loop and for generating real time situation assessment.
A review of the state of the art on works that fit the concept of
RTERS is presented, and it is found that they are mainly focused on
manmade disasters. At the same time, in response phase of natural
disaster management many works are involved in creating early
warning systems, but just few efforts have been put on deciding what
to do once an alarm is activated. In this context a RTERS arises as a
useful tool for supporting people in their decision making process
during natural disasters after an event is detected, and also as an
innovative context for applying well-known automation technologies
and automatic control concepts and tools.
Abstract: At present, the evaluation of voltage stability
assessment experiences sizeable anxiety in the safe operation of
power systems. This is due to the complications of a strain power
system. With the snowballing of power demand by the consumers
and also the restricted amount of power sources, therefore, the system
has to perform at its maximum proficiency. Consequently, the
noteworthy to discover the maximum ability boundary prior to
voltage collapse should be undertaken. A preliminary warning can be
perceived to evade the interruption of power system’s capacity. The
effectiveness of line voltage stability indices (LVSI) is differentiated
in this paper. The main purpose of the indices used is to predict the
proximity of voltage instability of the electric power system. On the
other hand, the indices are also able to decide the weakest load buses
which are close to voltage collapse in the power system. The line
stability indices are assessed using the IEEE 14 bus test system to
validate its practicability. Results demonstrated that the implemented
indices are practically relevant in predicting the manifestation of
voltage collapse in the system. Therefore, essential actions can be
taken to dodge the incident from arising.
Abstract: Molluca Collision Zone is located at the junction of
the Eurasian, Australian, Pacific and the Philippines plates. Between
the Sangihe arc, west of the collision zone, and to the east of
Halmahera arc is active collision and convex toward the Molluca Sea.
This research will analyze the behavior of earthquake occurrence in
Molluca Collision Zone related to the distributions of an earthquake
in each partition regions, determining the type of distribution of a
occurrence earthquake of partition regions, and the mean occurence
of earthquakes each partition regions, and the correlation between the
partitions region. We calculate number of earthquakes using partition
method and its behavioral using conventional statistical methods. In
this research, we used data of shallow earthquakes type and its
magnitudes ≥4 SR (period 1964-2013). From the results, we can
classify partitioned regions based on the correlation into two classes:
strong and very strong. This classification can be used for early
warning system in disaster management.