Abstract: The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate
forecasting method for predicting the future values of the
unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so,
several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series
with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential
smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method
which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical
analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting
unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In
the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double
exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the
best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters`
multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model
to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing
model. Our findings are in line with European Commission
unemployment rate estimates.
Abstract: Economic growth always correlate positively with the
magnitude of the unemployment rate. This is caused by labor which
one of important variable to keep growth in the real sector of the
region. Meanwhile, the economic structure in districts of Jember
showed an increase of economic activity began to shift towards the
industrial sector and some other economic sectors, so they have an
affects to considerations for policy makers to increase economic
growth in Jember as an autonomous region in East Java Province. At
the fact, SMEs is among the factors driving economic growth in the
region. This is shown by the high amount of SMEs. However,
employment in the sector grew slightly slowed. It is caused by a lack
of productivity in SMEs. Through the analysis of the transformation of
economic structure theory, and the theory of Triple Helix using
descriptive analytical method Location Quotient and Shift - Share,
found that the results of the economic structure in Jember slowly
shifting from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector, because it
is dominated by trade sector, hotel and restaurant sector. In addition,
SMEs is the potential sector of economic growth in Jember. While to
maximizing role and functions of the institution's Research and
Development Center of SMEs, there are three points to be known, that
are Business Landscape, Business Architecture and Value Added.
Abstract: Numerous studies carried out in the developed
western democratic countries have shown that the ideological
framework of the governing party has a significant influence on the
monetary policy. The executive authority consisting of a left-wing
party gives a higher weight to unemployment suppression and central
bank implements a more expansionary monetary policy. On the other
hand, right-wing governing party considers the monetary stability to
be more important than unemployment suppression and in such a
political framework the main macroeconomic objective becomes the
inflation rate reduction. The political framework conditions in the
transition countries which are new European Union (EU) members
are still highly specific in relation to the other EU member countries.
In the focus of this paper is the question whether the same
monetary policy principles are valid in these transitional countries as
well as they apply in developed western democratic EU member
countries. The data base consists of inflation rate and unemployment
rate for 11 transitional EU member countries covering the period
from 2001 to 2012. The essential information for each of these 11
countries and for each year of the observed period is right or left
political orientation of the ruling party.
In this paper we use t-statistics to test our hypothesis that there are
differences in inflation and unemployment between right and left
political orientation of the governing party. To explore the influence
of different countries, through years and different political
orientations descriptive statistics is used. Inflation and unemployment
should be strongly negatively correlated through time, which is tested
using Pearson correlation coefficient.
Regarding the fact whether the governing authority is consisted
from left or right politically oriented parties, monetary authorities
will adjust its policy setting the higher priority on lower inflation or
unemployment reduction.
Abstract: In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based
Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent
variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic
variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation
rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate.
We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the
widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition
autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of
ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic
forecasting used in academic research and in research and application
by the governmental and other institutions
Abstract: In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.
A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.