Abstract: This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R2 of 0.8428 and R2 (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.
Abstract: The objective of this study is to examine the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Algeria using the econometric modelling techniques of cointegration and vector error correction modelling to analyse and draw policy inferences. The chosen variables of fiscal policy are government expenditure and net taxes on products, while the effect of monetary policy is presented by the inflation rate and the official exchange rate. From the results, we find that in the long-run, the impact of government expenditures is positive, while the effect of taxes is negative on growth. Additionally, we find that the inflation rate is found to have little effect on GDP per capita but the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant. We conclude that fiscal policy is more powerful then monetary policy in promoting economic growth in Algeria.
Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the relationship between economic variables, e.g., inflation rate, interest rate, trade openness and the growth rate of GDP, with domestic investment. The present study also draws on conceptual economy related theories to verify the negative effect of interest rates on domestic investment. However, trade openness and growth rate had a positive correlation, and the inflation rate may have a positive or negative impact on domestic investment.
Abstract: The research investigates the causes of unemployment
in Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa and the role of Capital
Accumulation in reducing the unemployment profile of these
economies as proposed by the post-Keynesian economics. This is
conducted through extensive review of literature on the NAIRU
models and focused on the post-Keynesian view of unemployment
within the NAIRU framework. The NAIRU (non-accelerating
inflation rate of unemployment) model has become a dominant
framework used in macroeconomic analysis of unemployment. The
study views the post-Keynesian economics arguments that capital
accumulation is a major determinant of unemployment.
Unemployment remains the fundamental socio-economic challenge
facing African economies. It has been a burden to citizens of those
economies. Namibia, Nigeria, and South Africa are great African
nations battling with high unemployment rates. The high
unemployment rate in the country led the citizens to chase away
foreigners in the country claiming that they have taken away their
jobs. The study proposes there is a strong relationship between
capital accumulation and unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria, and
South Africa, and capital accumulation is responsible for high
unemployment rates in these countries. For the economies to achieve
steady state level of employment and satisfactory level of economic
growth and development, there is need for capital accumulation to
take place. The countries in the study have been selected after a
critical research and investigations. They are selected based on the
following criteria; African economies with high unemployment rates
above 15% and have about 40% of their workforce unemployed. This
level of unemployment is the critical level of unemployment in
Africa as expressed by International Labour Organization (ILO). And
finally, the African countries experience a slow growth in their Gross
fixed capital formation. Adequate statistical measures have been
employed using a time-series analysis in the study and the results
revealed that capital accumulation is the main driver of
unemployment performance in the chosen African countries. An
increase in the accumulation of capital causes unemployment to
reduce significantly. The results of the research work will be useful
and relevant to federal governments and ministries, departments and
agencies (MDAs) of Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa to resolve
the issue of high and persistent unemployment rates in their
economies which are great burden that slows growth and
development of developing economies. Also, the result can be useful
to World Bank, African Development Bank and International Labour
Organization (ILO) in their further research and studies on how to
tackle unemployment in developing and emerging economies.
Abstract: Numerous studies carried out in the developed
western democratic countries have shown that the ideological
framework of the governing party has a significant influence on the
monetary policy. The executive authority consisting of a left-wing
party gives a higher weight to unemployment suppression and central
bank implements a more expansionary monetary policy. On the other
hand, right-wing governing party considers the monetary stability to
be more important than unemployment suppression and in such a
political framework the main macroeconomic objective becomes the
inflation rate reduction. The political framework conditions in the
transition countries which are new European Union (EU) members
are still highly specific in relation to the other EU member countries.
In the focus of this paper is the question whether the same
monetary policy principles are valid in these transitional countries as
well as they apply in developed western democratic EU member
countries. The data base consists of inflation rate and unemployment
rate for 11 transitional EU member countries covering the period
from 2001 to 2012. The essential information for each of these 11
countries and for each year of the observed period is right or left
political orientation of the ruling party.
In this paper we use t-statistics to test our hypothesis that there are
differences in inflation and unemployment between right and left
political orientation of the governing party. To explore the influence
of different countries, through years and different political
orientations descriptive statistics is used. Inflation and unemployment
should be strongly negatively correlated through time, which is tested
using Pearson correlation coefficient.
Regarding the fact whether the governing authority is consisted
from left or right politically oriented parties, monetary authorities
will adjust its policy setting the higher priority on lower inflation or
unemployment reduction.
Abstract: In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive
Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow
fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be
incorporated or other training or computational methods can be
applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear
squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be
examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle,
Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine
two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and
the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.
Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to estimate the cost of road traffic accidents in Egypt. The Human Capital (HC) approach, specifically the Gross-Loss-of-Output methodology, is adopted for estimation. Moreover, cost values obtained by previous national literature are updated using the inflation rates. The results indicate an estimated cost of road traffic accidents in Egypt of approximately 10 billion Egyptian Pounds (about $US 1.8 billion) for the year 2008. In addition, it is expected that this cost will rise in 2009 to 11.8 billion Egyptian Pounds (about $US 2.1 billion).
Abstract: In this paper we present, propose and examine
additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the
tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions.
Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models
follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions
should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or
other training or computational methods can be applied as the error
backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares.
We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the
inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.