Abstract: The wellbeing of urban dwellers is strongly associated with the quality and quantity of green infrastructure. Nevertheless, urban green infrastructure is still lagging in many Arab cities, and Jordan is no exception. The capital city of Jordan, Amman, is becoming more urban dense with limited green spaces. The unplanned urban growth in Amman has caused several environmental problems such as urban heat islands, air pollution and lack of green spaces. This study aims to investigate the most suitable drivers to leverage the implementation of urban green infrastructure in Jordan through qualitative and quantitative analysis. The qualitative research includes an extensive literature review to discuss the most common drivers used internationally to promote urban green infrastructure implementation in the literature. The quantitative study employs a questionnaire survey to rank the suitability of each driver. Consultants, contractors and policymakers were invited to fill the research questionnaire according to their judgments and opinions. Relative Importance Index has been used to calculate the weighted average of all drivers and the Kruskal-Wallis test to check the degree of agreement among groups. This study finds that research participants agreed that indirect financial incentives (i.e., tax reductions, reduction in stormwater utility fee, reduction of interest rate, density bonus etc.) are the most effective incentive policy whilst granting sustainability certificate policy is the least effective driver to ensure widespread of UGI is elements in Jordan.
Abstract: A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.
Abstract: Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.
Abstract: The level of penetration of Islamic banking products and services has recorded a reasonable growth at an exponential rate in many parts of the world. There are many factors which have contributed to this growth including, but not limited to the rapid growth of number of Muslims who are uncomfortable with the conventional ways of banking, interest and higher interest rates scheduled by conventional banks and financial institutions as well as the financial inclusion campaign conducted in many countries. The system is facing legal challenges which open the research fdoor for practitioners and academicians for the sake of finding out solutions to those challenges. This paper tries to investigate the development of the Islamic banking system in the United Kingdom (UK), Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iran, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda in order to understand the modalities which have been employed to run an Islamic banking system in the aforementioned countries. The methodology which has been employed in doing this research paper is Doctrinal, of which legislations, policies and other legal tools have been carefully studied and analysed. Again, papers from academic journals, books and financial reports have been deeply analysed for the purpose of enriching the paper and come up with a tangible results. The paper found that in Asia, Malaysia has created the smoothest legal platform for Islamic banking system to work properly in the country. The United Kingdom has tried harder to smooth the banking system without affecting the conventional banking methods and without favouring the operations of Islamic banks. It also tries harder to make UK as an Islamic banking and finance hub in Europe. The entire banking system in Iran is Islamic, while Nigeria has undergone several legal reforms to suit Islamic banking system in the country. Kenya and Uganda are at a different pace in making Islamic Banking system work alongside the conventional banking system.
Abstract: This paper deals with the impact of decrease in interest rates on the performance of commercial and cooperative banks in the Eurozone measured by net interest margin. The analysis was performed on balanced dataset of 268 commercial and 726 cooperative banks spanning the 2008-2015 period. We employed Fixed Effects estimation panel method. As expected, we found a negative relationship between market rates and net interest margin. Our results suggest that the impact of negative interest income differs across individual banking business models. More precisely, those cooperative banks were much more hit by the decrease of market interest rates which might be due to their ownership structure and more restrictive business regulation.
Abstract: Current state of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Georgia is analyzed and evaluated in the paper, the existing legislative background for regulating investments and stimulating policies to attract investments are shown. It is noted that in developing countries encouragement of investment activity, support and implementation are of the most important tasks, implying a consistent investment policy, investor-friendly tax regime and the legal system, reducing administrative barriers and restrictions, fare competitive conditions and business development infrastructure. The work deals with the determining factor of FDIs and the main directions of stimulation, as well as prospective industries where new investments are needed. Contributing and hindering factors and stimulating measures are analyzed. As a result of the research, the direct and indirect factors attracting FDI have been identified. Facilitating factors to FDI inflow are as follows: simplicity of starting business, geopolitical location, low taxes, access to credit, ease of ownership registration, natural resources, low burden of regulations, low level of corruption and low crime rates. Hindering factors to FDI inflow are as follows: small market, lack of policy for attracting investments, low qualification of the workforce (despite the large number of unemployed people it is difficult to find workers with necessary special skills and qualifications), high interest rates, instability of national currency exchange rate, presence of conflict zones within the country and so forth.
Abstract: The exchange rate is a pivotal pricing instrument that simultaneously impacts various components of the economy. Depreciation of nominal exchange rate is export promoting, which might be a desired export-led growth policy, and particularly critical to closing-down the widening current account imbalance. However, negative effects resulting from high dollarization and high share of imported intermediate inputs can outweigh positive effect. The aim of this research is to quantify impact of change in nominal exchange rate and test contractionary depreciation hypothesis on Georgian economy using structural and Bayesian vector autoregression. According to the acquired results, appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to decrease inflation, monetary policy rate, interest rate on domestic currency loans and economic growth in the medium run; however, impact on economic growth in the short run is statistically not significant.
Abstract: In the interest-free banking system of Iran, the savings of society are in the form of bank deposits, and banks using the Islamic contracts, allocate the resources to applicants for obtaining facilities and credit. In the meantime, the central bank, with the aim of introducing monetary policy, determines the maximum interest rate on bank deposits in terms of macroeconomic requirements. But in recent years, the country's economic constraints with the stagflation and the consequence of the institutional weaknesses of the financial market of Iran have resulted in massive disturbances in the balance sheet of the banking system, resulting in a period of mismatch maturity in the banks' assets and liabilities and the implementation of a Ponzi game. This issue caused determination of the interest rate in long-term bank deposit contracts to be associated with non-observance of the maximum rate set by the central bank. The result of this condition was in the allocation of new sources of equipment to meet past commitments towards the old depositors and, as a result, a significant part of the supply of equipment was leaked out of the facilitating cycle and credit crunch emerged. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors affecting the occurrence of non-confirmatory financial banking behavior using data from 19 public and private banks of Iran. For this purpose, the causes of this non-confirmatory behavior of banks have been investigated using the panel vector autoregression method (PVAR) for the period of 2007-2015. Granger's causality test results suggest that the return of parallel markets for bank deposits, non-performing loans and the high share of the ratio of facilities to banks' deposits are all a cause of the formation of non-confirmatory behavior. Also, according to the results of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, NPL and the ratio of facilities to deposits have the highest long-term effect and also have a high contribution to explaining the changes in banks' non-confirmatory behavior in determining the interest rate on deposits.
Abstract: This paper presents the impact of persuasive communication implemented by fertility clinics websites, and how this information influences women at their decision-making for undertaking this procedure. The influential factors for women decisions to do social egg freezing (SEF) are analyzed from a framing theory perspective, with a specific focus on the impact of persuasive information on women’s decision making. This study follows a quantitative approach. A two-phase survey has been conducted to examine the interest rate to undertake SEF. In the first phase, a questionnaire was available during a month (May 2015) to women to answer whether or not they knew enough information of this process, with a total of 230 answers. The second phase took place in the two last weeks of July 2015. All the respondents were invited to a seminars called ‘All about egg freezing’ and afretwards they were requested to answer the second questionnaire. After the seminar, in which they were given an extensive amount of information about egg freezing, a total of 115 women replied the questionnaire. The collected data during this process were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Most of the respondents changed their opinion in the second questionaire which was after receiving information. Although in the first questionnaire their self-evaluation of having knowledge about this process and the implemented technologies was very high, they realized that they still need to access more information from different sources in order to be able to make a decision. The study reached the conclusion that persuasive and framed information by clinics would affect the decisions of these women. Despite the reasons women have to do egg freezing and their motivations behind it, providing people necessary information and unprejudiced data about this process (such as its positive and negative aspects, requirements, suppositions, possibilities and consequences) would help them to make a more precise and reasonable decision about what they are buying.
Abstract: Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.
Abstract: Net fee and commission income is one of the key elements of a bank’s core income. In the current low-interest rate environment, this type of income is gaining importance relative to net interest income. This paper analyses the effects of bank and country specific determinants of net fee and commission income on a set of cooperative banks from European countries in the 2007-2014 period. In order to do that, dynamic panel data methods (system Generalized Methods of Moments) were employed. Subsequently, alternative panel data methods were run as robustness checks of the analysis. Strong positive impact of bank concentration on the share of net fee and commission income was found, which proves that cooperative banks tend to display a higher share of fee income in less competitive markets. This is probably connected with the fact that they stick with their traditional deposit-taking and loan-providing model and fees on these services are driven down by the competitors. Moreover, compared to commercial banks, cooperatives do not expand heavily into non-traditional fee bearing services under competition and their overall fee income share is therefore decreasing with the increased competitiveness of the sector.
Abstract: Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator
evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios;
therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability
to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class
of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many
authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate
the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has
multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle
Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize
by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon
curve and the NSS curve.
Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the relationship between economic variables, e.g., inflation rate, interest rate, trade openness and the growth rate of GDP, with domestic investment. The present study also draws on conceptual economy related theories to verify the negative effect of interest rates on domestic investment. However, trade openness and growth rate had a positive correlation, and the inflation rate may have a positive or negative impact on domestic investment.
Abstract: The goal of this paper is to specify factors influencing
the profitability of selected banks. Next, a model will be created to
help establish variables that have a demonstrable influence on the
development of the selected banks' profitability ratios. Czech banks
and their international parent companies were selected for analyzing
profitability. Banks categorized as large banks (according to the
Czech National Bank's system, which ranks banks according to
balance sheet total) were selected to represent the Czech banks. Two
ratios, the return on assets ratio (ROA) and the return on equity ratio
(ROE) are used to assess bank profitability. Six endogenous and four
external indicators were selected from among other factors that
influence bank profitability. The data analyzed were for 2001–2013.
First, correlation analysis, which was supposed to eliminate
correlated values, was conducted. A large number of correlated
values were established on the basis of this analysis. The strongly
correlated values were omitted. Despite this, the subsequent
regression analysis of profitability for the individual banks that were
selected did not confirm that the selected variables influenced their
profitability. The studied factors' influence on bank profitability was
demonstrated only for Ceskoslovenska Obchodni Banka and Société
Générale using regression analysis. For Československa Obchodni
Banka, it was demonstrated that inflation level and the amount of the
central bank's interest rate influenced the return on assets ratio and
that capital adequacy and market concentration influenced the return
on equity ratio for Société Générale.
Abstract: The importance of agribusiness development is
proved in accordance with the trends in the agricultural sector of
Georgia. Agribusiness environment and the consequences of the
agricultural reforms are evaluated. The factors hindering the
development of agribusiness are revealed and the ways for
overcoming these problems are suggested. SWOT analysis is done in
order to identify the needs of agribusiness. The needs of agribusiness
development in Georgia are evaluated by priorities: prevention of
diseases and reduction of the harm caused by these diseases,
accessibility of long-term agricultural loans with low interest rates,
improving qualification of farmers, the level of education and usage
of modern technologies, changes in legislation, accessibility to high
quality agricultural machinery, and the development of infrastructure.
Based on the outcomes of the research, agribusiness development
strategies in Georgia are suggested and appropriate priorities of
economic policy are determined. Conclusions are made and based on
these conclusions, some recommendations are suggested.
Abstract: Commercial banks in Nigeria adopted many strategies
to attract fresh deposits including the use of high deposit rate.
However, pricing of banking services moved in favor of the banks at
the expense of customers, resulting in their seeking other investment
alternatives rather than saving their money in the bank. Both deposit
and lending rates were greatly influenced by the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) decision on interest rate. Therefore, commercial bank
effort to attract deposits via manipulation of her rates was greatly
limited, otherwise the banks will be giving out more than it earned.
The study aimed at examining the relationship between interest rate
and fixed fund deposit of commercial banks, how policy-controlled
interest rate affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit The
researcher employed ordinary least square technique, using, multiple
linear regression, unrestricted vector auto-regression, correlation
matrix test, granger causality and impulse response graph in the
analysis. Commercial bank’s interest rates affected commercial
bank’s fixed fund deposit significantly while policy-controlled
interest rate did not significantly transmit through the commercial
bank’s interest rates to affect fixed fund deposit. While commercial
banks seek creative ways to expand their fixed fund deposit, policy
authorities in Nigeria should better coordinate interest rate fluctuation
and induce competition in the entire financial sector.
Abstract: This study conducts simulation analyses to find the
optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan, while factoring in welfare
maximization under a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
framework. The simulation is based on Taiwan's 2001 to 2011
economic data and shows that welfare is maximized at a debt/GDP
ratio of 0.2, increases in the debt/GDP ratio leads to increases in both
tax and interest rates and decreases in the consumption ratio and
working hours. The study results indicate that the optimal debt ceiling
of Taiwan is 20% of GDP, where if the debt/GDP ratio is greater than
40%, the welfare will be negative and result in welfare loss.
Abstract: The main objective of this article is to examine the
impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of
financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank
loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the
impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland.
Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation
between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments
in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank
interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy
on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used
econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model
and Pearson correlation coefficient.
This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate
inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland
and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because
it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The
research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of
view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine
the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the
decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the
country.
Abstract: Housing loans play an important role in CEE
countries’ economies. This fact is based on their share in total loans
to households and their importance for economic activity and growth
in CEE countries. Therefore, it is important to find out key
determinants of housing loans demand in these countries. The aim of
this study is to research and analyze the determinants of the demand
for housing loans in Croatia. In this regard, the effect of economic
activity, loan terms and real estate prices were analyzed. Also, the
aim of this study is to find out what motivates people to take housing
loans. Therefore, primarily empirical study was conducted among the
Croatian residents. The results show that demand for housing loans is
positively affected by economic growth, higher personal income and
flexible loan terms, while it is negatively affected by interest rate rise.
Abstract: In this paper the CVA computation of interest rate
swap is presented based on its rating. Rating and probability default
given by Moody’s Investors Service are used to calculate our CVA
for a specific swap with different maturities. With this computation
the influence of rating variation can be shown on CVA. Application
is made to the analysis of Greek CDS variation during the period of
Greek crisis between 2008 and 2011. The main point is the
determination of correlation between the fluctuation of Greek CDS
cumulative value and the variation of swap CVA due to change of
rating.