Abstract: In this paper, the optimum design for renewable energy system powered an aquaculture pond was determined. Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) software program, which is developed by U.S National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is used for analyzing the feasibility of the stand alone and hybrid system in this study. HOMER program determines whether renewable energy resources satisfy hourly electric demand or not. The program calculates energy balance for every 8760 hours in a year to simulate operation of the system. This optimization compares the demand for the electrical energy for each hour of the year with the energy supplied by the system for that hour and calculates the relevant energy flow for each component in the model. The essential principle is to minimize the total system cost while HOMER ensures control of the system. Moreover the feasibility analysis of the energy system is also studied. Wind speed, solar irradiance, interest rate and capacity shortage are the parameters which are taken into consideration. The simulation results indicate that the hybrid system is the best choice in this study, yielding lower net present cost. Thus, it provides higher system performance than PV or wind stand alone systems.
Abstract: Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.
Abstract: This paper is focused on the analysis and comparison of liquidity ratios and asset liability management practices in top three banks from public, private and foreign sector in India. The analysis is based upon the liquidity ratios calculation and the determination of maturity gap profiles for the banks under study. The paper also compares these banks maturity gap profiles with their corresponding group’s maturity gap profiles. This paper identifies the interest rate sensitivity of the balance sheet items of these banks to determine the gap between rate sensitive assets and rate sensitive liabilities. The results of this study suggest that overall banks in India have very good short term liquidity position and all banks are financing their short term liabilities by their long term assets.
Abstract: E-tourism is among the issues that have recently been entered into the field of tourism. In order to achieve this type of tourism, Information and Communications Technology or ICT infrastructures as well as Co-governmental organizations and tourism resources are important. In this study, the opinions of managers and tourism officials about the e-tourism in Lenjan city were measured; it also surveyed the impact of level of digital literacy of managers and tourism officials on attracting tourists in Lenjan city. This study was conducted in Lenjan, one of the environs of the Esfahan province. This study is a documentary – survey and the sources include library resources and also questionnaires. The results obtained indicate that if managers use ICT, it may help E-tourism to be developed in the region, and increasing managers’ beliefs on e-tourism and upgrading their level of digital literacy may affect e-tourism development.
Abstract: In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive
Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow
fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be
incorporated or other training or computational methods can be
applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear
squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be
examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle,
Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine
two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and
the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.
Abstract: The objective of this study is to propose a statistical
modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure
estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default,
incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as
credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used
for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and
Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation
and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the
information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the
empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.
Abstract: Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.
Abstract: Three service providers in competition, try to optimize
their quality of service / content level and their service access
price. But, they have to deal with uncertainty on the consumers-
preferences. To reduce their uncertainty, they have the opportunity
to buy information and to build alliances. We determine the Shapley
value which is a fair way to allocate the grand coalition-s revenue
between the service providers. Then, we identify the values of β
(consumers- sensitivity coefficient to the quality of service / contents)
for which allocating the grand coalition-s revenue using the Shapley
value guarantees the system stability. For other values of β, we prove
that it is possible for the regulator to impose a per-period interest rate
maximizing the market coverage under equal allocation rules.
Abstract: A feasibility study for the design and construction of a
pilot plant for the extraction of castor oil in South Africa was
conducted. The study emphasized the four critical aspects of project
feasibility analysis, namely technical, financial, market and
managerial aspects. The technical aspect involved research on
existing oil extraction technologies, namely: mechanical pressing and
solvent extraction, as well as assessment of the proposed production
site for both short and long term viability of the project. The site is
on the outskirts of Nkomazi village in the Mpumalanga province,
where connections for water and electricity are currently underway,
potential raw material supply proves to be reliable since the province
is known for its commercial farming. The managerial aspect was
evaluated based on the fact that the current producer of castor oil will
be fully involved in the project while receiving training and technical
assistance from Sasol Technology, the TSC and SEDA. Market and
financial aspects were evaluated and the project was considered
financially viable with a Net Present Value (NPV) of R2 731 687 and
an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 18% at an annual interest rate of
10.5%. The payback time is 6years for analysis over the first 10
years with a net income of R1 971 000 in the first year. The project
was thus found to be feasible with high chance of success while
contributing to socio-economic development. It was recommended
for lab tests to be conducted to establish process kinetics that would
be used in the initial design of the plant.
Abstract: In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based
Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent
variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic
variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation
rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate.
We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the
widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition
autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of
ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic
forecasting used in academic research and in research and application
by the governmental and other institutions
Abstract: This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis, the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms, such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution, which has recently become more evident in Turkey-s fragile economy.
Abstract: In this paper real money demand function is analyzed
within multivariate time-series framework. Cointegration approach is
used (Johansen procedure) assuming interdependence between
money demand determinants, which are nonstationary variables. This
will help us to understand the behavior of money demand in Croatia,
revealing the significant influence between endogenous variables in
vector autoregrression system (VAR), i.e. vector error correction
model (VECM). Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is tested.
Long-run money demand function is estimated indicating slow speed
of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Empirical results
provide the evidence that real industrial production and exchange
rate explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run,
while interest rate is significant only in short-run.
Abstract: In this paper we present, propose and examine
additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the
tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions.
Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models
follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions
should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or
other training or computational methods can be applied as the error
backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares.
We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the
inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.
Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to investigate thelong-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run.Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause strongerimpacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries.The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.
Abstract: Marketing is an essential issue to the survival of any
real estate company in Turkey. There are some factors which are
constraining the achievements of the marketing and sales strategies in
the Turkey real estate industry. This study aims to identify and
prioritise the most significant constraints to marketing in real estate
sector and new strategies based on those constraints. This study is
based on survey method, where the respondents such as credit
counsellors, real estate investors, consultants, academicians and
marketing representatives in Turkey were asked to rank forty seven
sub-factors according to their levels of impact. The results of Multiattribute
analytical technique indicated that the main subcomponents
having impact on marketing in real estate sector are interest rates, real
estate credit availability, accessibility, company image and consumer
real income, respectively. The identified constraints are expected to
guide the marketing team in a sales-effective way.
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between financial
risks and profitability of the conventional and Islamic banks in
Malaysia for the period between 1996 and 2005. The measures of
profitability that have been used in the study are the return on equity
(ROE) and return on assets (ROA) while the financial risks are credit
risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risks. This study employs panel
data regression analysis of Generalised Least Squares of fixed effects
and random effects models. It was found that credit risk has a
significant impact on ROA and ROE for the conventional as well as
the Islamic banks. The relationship between interest rate risk and ROE
were found to be weakly significant for the conventional banks and
insignificant for the Islamic banks. The effect of interest rate risk on
ROA is significant for the conventional banks. Liquidity risk was
found to have an insignificant impact on both profitability measures.
Abstract: Underpricing is one anomaly in initial public offerings
(IPO) literature that has been widely observed across different stock
markets with different trends emerging over different time periods.
This study seeks to determine how IPOs on the JSE performed on the
first day, first week and first month over the period of 1996-2011.
Underpricing trends are documented for both hot and cold market
periods in terms of four main sectors (cyclical, defensive, growth
stock and interest rate sensitive stocks). Using a sample of 360 listed
companies on the JSE, the empirical findings established that IPOs
on the JSE are significantly underpriced with an average market
adjusted first day return of 62.9%. It is also established that hot
market IPOs on the JSE are more underpriced than the cold market
IPOs. Also observed is the fact that as the offer price per share
increases above the median price for any given period, the level of
underpricing decreases substantially. While significant differences
exist in the level of underpricing of IPOs in the four different sectors
in the hot and cold market periods, interest rates sensitive stocks
showed a different trend from the other sectors and thus require
further investigation to uncover this pattern.
Abstract: Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.
Abstract: This paper studies the duration or survival time of commercial banks active in the Moscovian three month Rouble deposits market, during the 1994-1997 period. The privatization process of the Russian commercial banking industry, after the 1988 banking reform, caused a massive entry of new banks followed by a period of high rates of exit. As a consequence, many firms went bankrupt without refunding their deposits. Therefore, both for the banks and for the banks- depositors, it is of interest to analyze which are the significant characteristics that motivate the exit or the closing of the bank. We propose a different methodology based on penalized weighted least squares which represents a very general, flexible and innovative approach for this type of analysis. The more relevant results are that smaller banks exit sooner, banks that enter the market in the last part of the study have shorter durations. As expected, the more experienced banks have a longer duration in the market. In addition, the mean survival time is lower for banks which offer extreme interest rates.
Abstract: The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant
aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are
considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the
approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel
(1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their
dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is
conducted.