Abstract: Waste reduction is a fundamental problem for sustainability. Methods for waste reduction with point-of-sales (POS) data are proposed, utilizing the knowledge of a recent econophysics study on a statistical property of POS data. Concretely, the non-stationary time series analysis method based on the Particle Filter is developed, which considers abnormal fluctuation scaling known as Taylor's law. This method is extended for handling incomplete sales data because of stock-outs by introducing maximum likelihood estimation for censored data. The way for optimal stock determination with pricing the cost of waste reduction is also proposed. This study focuses on the examination of the methods for large sales numbers where Taylor's law is obvious. Numerical analysis using aggregated POS data shows the effectiveness of the methods to reduce food waste maintaining a high profit for large sales numbers. Moreover, the way of pricing the cost of waste reduction reveals that a small profit loss realizes substantial waste reduction, especially in the case that the proportionality constant of Taylor’s law is small. Specifically, around 1% profit loss realizes half disposal at =0.12, which is the actual value of processed food items used in this research. The methods provide practical and effective solutions for waste reduction keeping a high profit, especially with large sales numbers.
Abstract: Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.
Abstract: Sometimes the amount of time available for testing could be considerably less than the expected lifetime of the component. To overcome such a problem, there is the accelerated life-testing alternative aimed at forcing components to fail by testing them at much higher-than-intended application conditions. These models are known as acceleration models. One possible way to translate test results obtained under accelerated conditions to normal using conditions could be through the application of the “Maxwell Distribution Law.” In this paper we will apply a combined approach of a sequential life testing and an accelerated life testing to a low alloy high-strength steel component used in the construction of overpasses in Brazil. The underlying sampling distribution will be three-parameter Inverse Weibull model. To estimate the three parameters of the Inverse Weibull model we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. We will be assuming a linear acceleration condition. To evaluate the accuracy (significance) of the parameter values obtained under normal conditions for the underlying Inverse Weibull model we will apply to the expected normal failure times a sequential life testing using a truncation mechanism. An example will illustrate the application of this procedure.
Abstract: This paper discusses regression analysis of partly interval-censored failure time data, which is occur in many fields including demographical, epidemiological, financial, medical and sociological studies. For the problem, we focus on the situation where the survival time of interest can be described by the additive hazards model in the present of partly interval-censored. A major advantage of the approach is its simplicity and it can be easily implemented by using R software. Simulation studies are conducted which indicate that the approach performs well for practical situations and comparable to the existing methods. The methodology is applied to a set of partly interval-censored failure time data arising from anti D in Rhesus D negative studies.
Abstract: The paper deals with the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the Burr type V distribution based on left censored samples. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the parameters have been derived and the Fisher information matrix for the parameters of the said distribution has been obtained explicitly. The confidence intervals for the parameters have also been discussed. A simulation study has been conducted to investigate the performance of the point and interval estimates.
Abstract: The article is concerned with analysis of failure rate (shape parameter) under the Topp Leone distribution using a Bayesian framework. Different loss functions and a couple of noninformative priors have been assumed for posterior estimation. The posterior predictive distributions have also been derived. A simulation study has been carried to compare the performance of different estimators. A real life example has been used to illustrate the applicability of the results obtained. The findings of the study suggest that the precautionary loss function based on Jeffreys prior and singly type II censored samples can effectively be employed to
obtain the Bayes estimate of the failure rate under Topp Leone distribution.
Abstract: In this paper we will develop a sequential life test approach applied to a modified low alloy-high strength steel part used in highway overpasses in Brazil.We will consider two possible underlying sampling distributions: the Normal and theInverse Weibull models. The minimum life will be considered equal to zero. We will use the two underlying models to analyze a fatigue life test situation, comparing the results obtained from both.Since a major chemical component of this low alloy-high strength steel part has been changed, there is little information available about the possible values that the parameters of the corresponding Normal and Inverse Weibull underlying sampling distributions could have. To estimate the shape and the scale parameters of these two sampling models we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. We will also develop a truncation mechanism for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models. We will provide rules to truncate a sequential life testing situation making one of the two possible decisions at the moment of truncation; that is, accept or reject the null hypothesis H0. An example will develop the proposed truncated sequential life testing approach for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models.
Abstract: In the recent past, there has been an increasing interest
in applying evolutionary methods to Knowledge Discovery in
Databases (KDD) and a number of successful applications of Genetic
Algorithms (GA) and Genetic Programming (GP) to KDD have been
demonstrated. The most predominant representation of the
discovered knowledge is the standard Production Rules (PRs) in the
form If P Then D. The PRs, however, are unable to handle
exceptions and do not exhibit variable precision. The Censored
Production Rules (CPRs), an extension of PRs, were proposed by
Michalski & Winston that exhibit variable precision and supports an
efficient mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an
augmented production rule of the form:
If P Then D Unless C, where C (Censor) is an exception to the rule.
Such rules are employed in situations, in which the conditional
statement 'If P Then D' holds frequently and the assertion C holds
rarely. By using a rule of this type we are free to ignore the exception
conditions, when the resources needed to establish its presence are
tight or there is simply no information available as to whether it
holds or not. Thus, the 'If P Then D' part of the CPR expresses
important information, while the Unless C part acts only as a switch
and changes the polarity of D to ~D.
This paper presents a classification algorithm based on evolutionary
approach that discovers comprehensible rules with exceptions in the
form of CPRs.
The proposed approach has flexible chromosome encoding, where
each chromosome corresponds to a CPR. Appropriate genetic
operators are suggested and a fitness function is proposed that
incorporates the basic constraints on CPRs. Experimental results are
presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.
Abstract: In this work we study the effect of several covariates X on a censored response variable T with unknown probability distribution. In this context, most of the studies in the literature can be located in two possible general classes of regression models: models that study the effect the covariates have on the hazard function; and models that study the effect the covariates have on the censored response variable. Proposals in this paper are in the second class of models and, more specifically, on least squares based model approach. Thus, using the bootstrap estimate of the bias, we try to improve the estimation of the regression parameters by reducing their bias, for small sample sizes. Simulation results presented in the paper show that, for reasonable sample sizes and censoring levels, the bias is always smaller for the new proposals.
Abstract: This paper considers inference under progressive type II censoring with a compound Rayleigh failure time distribution. The maximum likelihood (ML), and Bayes methods are used for estimating the unknown parameters as well as some lifetime parameters, namely reliability and hazard functions. We obtained Bayes estimators using the conjugate priors for two shape and scale parameters. When the two parameters are unknown, the closed-form expressions of the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained. We use Lindley.s approximation to compute the Bayes estimates. Another Bayes estimator has been obtained based on continuous-discrete joint prior for the unknown parameters. An example with the real data is discussed to illustrate the proposed method. Finally, we made comparisons between these estimators and the maximum likelihood estimators using a Monte Carlo simulation study.
Abstract: There have been various methods created based on the regression ideas to resolve the problem of data set containing censored observations, i.e. the Buckley-James method, Miller-s method, Cox method, and Koul-Susarla-Van Ryzin estimators. Even though comparison studies show the Buckley-James method performs better than some other methods, it is still rarely used by researchers mainly because of the limited diagnostics analysis developed for the Buckley-James method thus far. Therefore, a diagnostic tool for the Buckley-James method is proposed in this paper. It is called the renovated Cook-s Distance, (RD* i ) and has been developed based on the Cook-s idea. The renovated Cook-s Distance (RD* i ) has advantages (depending on the analyst demand) over (i) the change in the fitted value for a single case, DFIT* i as it measures the influence of case i on all n fitted values Yˆ∗ (not just the fitted value for case i as DFIT* i) (ii) the change in the estimate of the coefficient when the ith case is deleted, DBETA* i since DBETA* i corresponds to the number of variables p so it is usually easier to look at a diagnostic measure such as RD* i since information from p variables can be considered simultaneously. Finally, an example using Stanford Heart Transplant data is provided to illustrate the proposed diagnostic tool.
Abstract: Censored Production Rule is an extension of standard
production rule, which is concerned with problems of reasoning with
incomplete information, subject to resource constraints and problem
of reasoning efficiently with exceptions. A CPR has a form: IF A
(Condition) THEN B (Action) UNLESS C (Censor), Where C is the
exception condition. Fuzzy CPR are obtained by augmenting
ordinary fuzzy production rule “If X is A then Y is B with an
exception condition and are written in the form “If X is A then Y is B
Unless Z is C. Such rules are employed in situation in which the
fuzzy conditional statement “If X is A then Y is B" holds frequently
and the exception condition “Z is C" holds rarely. Thus “If X is A
then Y is B" part of the fuzzy CPR express important information
while the unless part acts only as a switch that changes the polarity of
“Y is B" to “Y is not B" when the assertion “Z is C" holds. The
proposed approach is an attempt to discover fuzzy censored
production rules from set of discovered fuzzy if then rules in the
form:
A(X)  B(Y) || C(Z).
Abstract: A challenging problem in radar signal processing is to
achieve reliable target detection in the presence of interferences. In
this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for automatic censoring of
radar interfering targets in log-normal clutter. The proposed
algorithm, termed the forward automatic censored cell averaging
detector (F-ACCAD), consists of two steps: removing the corrupted
reference cells (censoring) and the actual detection. Both steps are
performed dynamically by using a suitable set of ranked cells to
estimate the unknown background level and set the adaptive
thresholds accordingly. The F-ACCAD algorithm does not require
any prior information about the clutter parameters nor does it require
the number of interfering targets. The effectiveness of the F-ACCAD
algorithm is assessed by computing, using Monte Carlo simulations,
the probability of censoring and the probability of detection in
different background environments.
Abstract: We consider linear regression models where both input data (the values of independent variables) and output data (the observations of the dependent variable) are interval-censored. We introduce a possibilistic generalization of the least squares estimator, so called OLS-set for the interval model. This set captures the impact of the loss of information on the OLS estimator caused by interval censoring and provides a tool for quantification of this effect. We study complexity-theoretic properties of the OLS-set. We also deal with restricted versions of the general interval linear regression model, in particular the crisp input – interval output model. We give an argument that natural descriptions of the OLS-set in the crisp input – interval output cannot be computed in polynomial time. Then we derive easily computable approximations for the OLS-set which can be used instead of the exact description. We illustrate the approach by an example.
Abstract: In this paper we will develop further the sequential life test approach presented in a previous article by [1] using an underlying two parameter Inverse Weibull sampling distribution. The location parameter or minimum life will be considered equal to zero. Once again we will provide rules for making one of the three possible decisions as each observation becomes available; that is: accept the null hypothesis H0; reject the null hypothesis H0; or obtain additional information by making another observation. The product being analyzed is a new electronic component. There is little information available about the possible values the parameters of the corresponding Inverse Weibull underlying sampling distribution could have.To estimate the shape and the scale parameters of the underlying Inverse Weibull model we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. A new example will further develop the proposed sequential life testing approach.
Abstract: This paper studies the duration or survival time of commercial banks active in the Moscovian three month Rouble deposits market, during the 1994-1997 period. The privatization process of the Russian commercial banking industry, after the 1988 banking reform, caused a massive entry of new banks followed by a period of high rates of exit. As a consequence, many firms went bankrupt without refunding their deposits. Therefore, both for the banks and for the banks- depositors, it is of interest to analyze which are the significant characteristics that motivate the exit or the closing of the bank. We propose a different methodology based on penalized weighted least squares which represents a very general, flexible and innovative approach for this type of analysis. The more relevant results are that smaller banks exit sooner, banks that enter the market in the last part of the study have shorter durations. As expected, the more experienced banks have a longer duration in the market. In addition, the mean survival time is lower for banks which offer extreme interest rates.
Abstract: In this paper we will develop further the sequential
life test approach presented in a previous article by [1] using an
underlying two parameter Weibull sampling distribution. The
minimum life will be considered equal to zero. We will again provide
rules for making one of the three possible decisions as each
observation becomes available; that is: accept the null hypothesis H0;
reject the null hypothesis H0; or obtain additional information by
making another observation. The product being analyzed is a new
type of a low alloy-high strength steel product. To estimate the shape
and the scale parameters of the underlying Weibull model we will use
a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. A new
example will further develop the proposed sequential life testing
approach.
Abstract: In the recent past Learning Classifier Systems have
been successfully used for data mining. Learning Classifier System
(LCS) is basically a machine learning technique which combines
evolutionary computing, reinforcement learning, supervised or
unsupervised learning and heuristics to produce adaptive systems. A
LCS learns by interacting with an environment from which it
receives feedback in the form of numerical reward. Learning is
achieved by trying to maximize the amount of reward received. All
LCSs models more or less, comprise four main components; a finite
population of condition–action rules, called classifiers; the
performance component, which governs the interaction with the
environment; the credit assignment component, which distributes the
reward received from the environment to the classifiers accountable
for the rewards obtained; the discovery component, which is
responsible for discovering better rules and improving existing ones
through a genetic algorithm. The concatenate of the production rules
in the LCS form the genotype, and therefore the GA should operate
on a population of classifier systems. This approach is known as the
'Pittsburgh' Classifier Systems. Other LCS that perform their GA at
the rule level within a population are known as 'Mitchigan' Classifier
Systems. The most predominant representation of the discovered
knowledge is the standard production rules (PRs) in the form of IF P
THEN D. The PRs, however, are unable to handle exceptions and do
not exhibit variable precision. The Censored Production Rules
(CPRs), an extension of PRs, were proposed by Michalski and
Winston that exhibit variable precision and supports an efficient
mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an augmented
production rule of the form: IF P THEN D UNLESS C, where
Censor C is an exception to the rule. Such rules are employed in
situations, in which conditional statement IF P THEN D holds
frequently and the assertion C holds rarely. By using a rule of this
type we are free to ignore the exception conditions, when the
resources needed to establish its presence are tight or there is simply
no information available as to whether it holds or not. Thus, the IF P
THEN D part of CPR expresses important information, while the
UNLESS C part acts only as a switch and changes the polarity of D
to ~D. In this paper Pittsburgh style LCSs approach is used for
automated discovery of CPRs. An appropriate encoding scheme is
suggested to represent a chromosome consisting of fixed size set of
CPRs. Suitable genetic operators are designed for the set of CPRs
and individual CPRs and also appropriate fitness function is proposed
that incorporates basic constraints on CPR. Experimental results are
presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed learning
classifier system.
Abstract: Knowledge is indispensable but voluminous knowledge becomes a bottleneck for efficient processing. A great challenge for data mining activity is the generation of large number of potential rules as a result of mining process. In fact sometimes result size is comparable to the original data. Traditional data mining pruning activities such as support do not sufficiently reduce the huge rule space. Moreover, many practical applications are characterized by continual change of data and knowledge, thereby making knowledge voluminous with each change. The most predominant representation of the discovered knowledge is the standard Production Rules (PRs) in the form If P Then D. Michalski & Winston proposed Censored Production Rules (CPRs), as an extension of production rules, that exhibit variable precision and supports an efficient mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an augmented production rule of the form: If P Then D Unless C, where C (Censor) is an exception to the rule. Such rules are employed in situations in which the conditional statement 'If P Then D' holds frequently and the assertion C holds rarely. By using a rule of this type we are free to ignore the exception conditions, when the resources needed to establish its presence, are tight or there is simply no information available as to whether it holds or not. Thus the 'If P Then D' part of the CPR expresses important information while the Unless C part acts only as a switch changes the polarity of D to ~D. In this paper a scheme based on Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) interpretation of a CPR is suggested for discovering CPRs from the discovered flat PRs. The discovery of CPRs from flat rules would result in considerable reduction of the already discovered rules. The proposed scheme incrementally incorporates new knowledge and also reduces the size of knowledge base considerably with each episode. Examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed scheme. The suggested cumulative learning scheme would be useful in mining data streams.