Abstract: The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate
forecasting method for predicting the future values of the
unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so,
several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series
with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential
smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method
which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical
analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting
unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In
the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double
exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the
best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters`
multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model
to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing
model. Our findings are in line with European Commission
unemployment rate estimates.
Abstract: Numerous studies carried out in the developed
western democratic countries have shown that the ideological
framework of the governing party has a significant influence on the
monetary policy. The executive authority consisting of a left-wing
party gives a higher weight to unemployment suppression and central
bank implements a more expansionary monetary policy. On the other
hand, right-wing governing party considers the monetary stability to
be more important than unemployment suppression and in such a
political framework the main macroeconomic objective becomes the
inflation rate reduction. The political framework conditions in the
transition countries which are new European Union (EU) members
are still highly specific in relation to the other EU member countries.
In the focus of this paper is the question whether the same
monetary policy principles are valid in these transitional countries as
well as they apply in developed western democratic EU member
countries. The data base consists of inflation rate and unemployment
rate for 11 transitional EU member countries covering the period
from 2001 to 2012. The essential information for each of these 11
countries and for each year of the observed period is right or left
political orientation of the ruling party.
In this paper we use t-statistics to test our hypothesis that there are
differences in inflation and unemployment between right and left
political orientation of the governing party. To explore the influence
of different countries, through years and different political
orientations descriptive statistics is used. Inflation and unemployment
should be strongly negatively correlated through time, which is tested
using Pearson correlation coefficient.
Regarding the fact whether the governing authority is consisted
from left or right politically oriented parties, monetary authorities
will adjust its policy setting the higher priority on lower inflation or
unemployment reduction.
Abstract: This paper examines economic and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development influence on recently increasing Internet purchases by individuals for European Union member states. After a growing trend for Internet purchases in EU27 was noticed, all possible regression analysis was applied using nine independent variables in 2011. Finally, two linear regression models were studied in detail. Conducted simple linear regression analysis confirmed the research hypothesis that the Internet purchases in analyzed EU countries is positively correlated with statistically significant variable Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc). Also, analyzed multiple linear regression model with four regressors, showing ICT development level, indicates that ICT development is crucial for explaining the Internet purchases by individuals, confirming the research hypothesis.