Abstract: Health and Social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges, due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven approaches can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms that assist healthcare managers to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), and Logistic Regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared and Student’s test are used on data over a 39 years span for which data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are associated using probabilities and are parts of statistical hypotheses. These hypotheses, as their NULL part, assume that the target demand is statistically dependent on other services’ demands. This linking is checked using the data. In addition, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus, groups of services. Statistical tests confirmed ML coupling and made the prediction statistically meaningful and proved that a target service can be matched reliably to other services while ML showed that such marked relationships can also be linear ones. Zero padding was used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and for the entire span offering long-term data visualizations while limited years periods explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods of time or that they can change over time as opposed to behaviours across more years. The prediction performance of the associations were measured using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC) and Accuracy (ACC) as well as the statistical tests Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for the RF, CART, and LGR methods as well as the p-value from tests and Information Exchange (IE/MIE) measures are provided showing the relative performance of ML methods and of the statistical tests as well as the behaviour using different learning ratios. The impact of k-neighbours classification (k-NN), Cross-Correlation (CC) and C-Means (CM) first groupings was also studied over limited years and for the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC = 0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912 showing that ML methods can be confused by zero-padding or by data’s irregularities or by the outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing well RF and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only when a significance level (p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, low birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited duration, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed by using statistical hypotheses.
Abstract: Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.
Abstract: Since its inception, predictive analysis has revolutionized the IT industry through its robustness and decision-making facilities. It involves the application of a set of data processing techniques and algorithms in order to create predictive models. Its principle is based on finding relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables. Past occurrences are exploited to predict and to derive the unknown outcome. With the advent of big data, many studies have suggested the use of predictive analytics in order to process and analyze big data. Nevertheless, they have been curbed by the limits of classical methods of predictive analysis in case of a large amount of data. In fact, because of their volumes, their nature (semi or unstructured) and their variety, it is impossible to analyze efficiently big data via classical methods of predictive analysis. The authors attribute this weakness to the fact that predictive analysis algorithms do not allow the parallelization and distribution of calculation. In this paper, we propose to extend the predictive analysis algorithm, Classification And Regression Trees (CART), in order to adapt it for big data analysis. The major changes of this algorithm are presented and then a version of the extended algorithm is defined in order to make it applicable for a huge quantity of data.
Abstract: Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.
Abstract: In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.
Abstract: In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.
Abstract: This paper examines the available experiment data for a copper bromide vapor laser (CuBr laser), emitting at two wavelengths - 510.6 and 578.2nm. Laser output power is estimated based on 10 independent input physical parameters. A classification and regression tree (CART) model is obtained which describes 97% of data. The resulting binary CART tree specifies which input parameters influence considerably each of the classification groups. This allows for a technical assessment that indicates which of these are the most significant for the manufacture and operation of the type of laser under consideration. The predicted values of the laser output power are also obtained depending on classification. This aids the design and development processes considerably.
Abstract: Sleep stage scoring is the process of classifying the
stage of the sleep in which the subject is in. Sleep is classified into
two states based on the constellation of physiological parameters.
The two states are the non-rapid eye movement (NREM) and the
rapid eye movement (REM). The NREM sleep is also classified into
four stages (1-4). These states and the state wakefulness are
distinguished from each other based on the brain activity. In this
work, a classification method for automated sleep stage scoring
based on a single EEG recording using wavelet packet decomposition
was implemented. Thirty two ploysomnographic recording from the
MIT-BIH database were used for training and validation of the
proposed method. A single EEG recording was extracted and
smoothed using Savitzky-Golay filter. Wavelet packets
decomposition up to the fourth level based on 20th order Daubechies
filter was used to extract features from the EEG signal. A features
vector of 54 features was formed. It was reduced to a size of 25 using
the gain ratio method and fed into a classifier of regression trees. The
regression trees were trained using 67% of the records available. The
records for training were selected based on cross validation of the
records. The remaining of the records was used for testing the
classifier. The overall correct rate of the proposed method was found
to be around 75%, which is acceptable compared to the techniques in
the literature.
Abstract: Avoiding learning failures in mathematics e-learning environments caused by emotional problems in students with autism has become an important topic for combining of special education with information and communications technology. This study presents an adaptive emotional adjustment model in mathematics e-learning for students with autism, emphasizing the lack of emotional perception in mathematics e-learning systems. In addition, an emotion classification for students with autism was developed by inducing emotions in mathematical learning environments to record changes in the physiological signals and facial expressions of students. Using these methods, 58 emotional features were obtained. These features were then processed using one-way ANOVA and information gain (IG). After reducing the feature dimension, methods of support vector machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and classification and regression trees (CART) were used to classify four emotional categories: baseline, happy, angry, and anxious. After testing and comparisons, in a situation without feature selection, the accuracy rate of the SVM classification can reach as high as 79.3-%. After using IG to reduce the feature dimension, with only 28 features remaining, SVM still has a classification accuracy of 78.2-%. The results of this research could enhance the effectiveness of eLearning in special education.
Abstract: The γ-turns play important roles in protein folding and
molecular recognition. The prediction and analysis of γ-turn types are
important for both protein structure predictions and better
understanding the characteristics of different γ-turn types. This study
proposed a physicochemical property-based decision tree (PPDT)
method to interpretably predict γ-turn types. In addition to the good
prediction performance of PPDT, three simple and human
interpretable IF-THEN rules are extracted from the decision tree
constructed by PPDT. The identified informative physicochemical
properties and concise rules provide a simple way for discriminating
and understanding γ-turn types.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to identify the most suitable
model for churn prediction based on three different techniques. The
paper identifies the variables that affect churn in reverence of
customer complaints data and provides a comparative analysis of
neural networks, regression trees and regression in their capabilities
of predicting customer churn.
Abstract: In the semiconductor manufacturing process, large
amounts of data are collected from various sensors of multiple
facilities. The collected data from sensors have several different characteristics
due to variables such as types of products, former processes
and recipes. In general, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods
assume the normality of the data to detect out-of-control states of
processes. Although the collected data have different characteristics,
using the data as inputs of SQC will increase variations of data,
require wide control limits, and decrease performance to detect outof-
control. Therefore, it is necessary to separate similar data groups
from mixed data for more accurate process control. In the paper,
we propose a regression tree using split algorithm based on Pearson
distribution to handle non-normal distribution in parametric method.
The regression tree finds similar properties of data from different
variables. The experiments using real semiconductor manufacturing
process data show improved performance in fault detecting ability.
Abstract: Maintenance is one of the most important activities in
the shipyard industry. However, sometimes it is not supported by
adequate services from the shipyard, where inaccuracy in estimating
the duration of the ship maintenance is still common. This makes
estimation of ship maintenance duration is crucial. This study uses
Data Mining approach, i.e., CART (Classification and Regression
Tree) to estimate the duration of ship maintenance that is limited to
dock works or which is known as dry docking. By using the volume
of dock works as an input to estimate the maintenance duration, 4
classes of dry docking duration were obtained with different linear
model and job criteria for each class. These linear models can then be
used to estimate the duration of dry docking based on job criteria.