Abstract: The aim of the performed work is to establish the 2D
and 3D model of direct unsteady task of sample heat treatment by
moving source employing computer model on the basis of finite
element method. Complex boundary condition on heat loaded sample
surface is the essential feature of the task. Computer model describes
heat treatment of the sample during heat source movement over the
sample surface. It is started from 2D task of sample cross section as a
basic model. Possibilities of extension from 2D to 3D task are
discussed. The effect of the addition of third model dimension on
temperature distribution in the sample is showed. Comparison of
various model parameters on the sample temperatures is observed.
Influence of heat source motion on the depth of material heat
treatment is shown for several velocities of the movement. Presented
computer model is prepared for the utilization in laser treatment of
machine parts.
Abstract: Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in
developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding
population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of
cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational
message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in
the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms
of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the
equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are
established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically
stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of
backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore,
numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show
the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that
combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera
in the population.
Abstract: We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of a simulation study.
Abstract: Liquid-Liquid Equilibrium (LLE) data are measured
for the ternary mixtures of water + 1-butanol + butyl acetate and
quaternary mixtures of water + 1-butanol + butyl acetate + glycerol at
atmospheric pressure at 313.15 K. In addition, isothermal
vapor–liquid–liquid equilibrium (VLLE) data are determined
experimentally at 333.15 K. The region of heterogeneity is found to
increase as the hydrophilic agent (glycerol) is introduced into the
aqueous mixtures. The experimental data are correlated with the
NRTL model. The predicted results from the solution model with the
model parameters determined from the constituent binaries are also
compared with the experimental values.
Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small
wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines
sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of
the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations
diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential
distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one
parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of
small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is
based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual
sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind
Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation
of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for
adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080
(confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average
lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval
from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind
turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%,
while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price
changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model.
This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression
function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The
estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines
(for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval
from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind
turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to
58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years.
In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second
– 95,3%.
Abstract: High density electrical prospecting has been widely
used in groundwater investigation, civil engineering and
environmental survey. For efficient inversion, the forward modeling
routine, sensitivity calculation, and inversion algorithm must be
efficient. This paper attempts to provide a brief summary of the past
and ongoing developments of the method. It includes reviews of the
procedures used for data acquisition, processing and inversion of
electrical resistivity data based on compilation of academic literature.
In recent times there had been a significant evolution in field survey
designs and data inversion techniques for the resistivity method. In
general 2-D inversion for resistivity data is carried out using the
linearized least-square method with the local optimization technique
.Multi-electrode and multi-channel systems have made it possible to
conduct large 2-D, 3-D and even 4-D surveys efficiently to resolve
complex geological structures that were not possible with traditional
1-D surveys. 3-D surveys play an increasingly important role in very
complex areas where 2-D models suffer from artifacts due to off-line
structures. Continued developments in computation technology, as
well as fast data inversion techniques and software, have made it
possible to use optimization techniques to obtain model parameters to
a higher accuracy. A brief discussion on the limitations of the
electrical resistivity method has also been presented.
Abstract: Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most
important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this
study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow
assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling.
In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important
role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is
very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model
boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow
into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence,
in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code
(UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as
tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain
extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent
is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel
radius and joint spacing.
Abstract: Estimation of model parameters is necessary to predict
the behavior of a system. Model parameters are estimated using
optimization criteria. Most algorithms use historical data to estimate
model parameters. The known target values (actual) and the output
produced by the model are compared. The differences between the
two form the basis to estimate the parameters. In order to compare
different models developed using the same data different criteria are
used. The data obtained for short scale projects are used here. We
consider software effort estimation problem using radial basis
function network. The accuracy comparison is made using various
existing criteria for one and two predictors. Then, we propose a new
criterion based on linear least squares for evaluation and compared
the results of one and two predictors. We have considered another
data set and evaluated prediction accuracy using the new criterion.
The new criterion is easy to comprehend compared to single statistic.
Although software effort estimation is considered, this method is
applicable for any modeling and prediction.
Abstract: Characterization of the engineering behavior of
unsaturated soil is dependent on the soil-water characteristic curve
(SWCC), a graphical representation of the relationship between water
content or degree of saturation and soil suction. A reasonable
description of the SWCC is thus important for the accurate prediction
of unsaturated soil parameters. The measurement procedures for
determining the SWCC, however, are difficult, expensive, and timeconsuming.
During the past few decades, researchers have laid a
major focus on developing empirical equations for predicting the
SWCC, with a large number of empirical models suggested. One of
the most crucial questions is how precisely existing equations can
represent the SWCC. As different models have different ranges of
capability, it is essential to evaluate the precision of the SWCC
models used for each particular soil type for better SWCC estimation.
It is expected that better estimation of SWCC would be achieved via
a thorough statistical analysis of its distribution within a particular
soil class. With this in view, a statistical analysis was conducted in
order to evaluate the reliability of the SWCC prediction models
against laboratory measurement. Optimization techniques were used
to obtain the best-fit of the model parameters in four forms of SWCC
equation, using laboratory data for relatively coarse-textured (i.e.,
sandy) soil. The four most prominent SWCCs were evaluated and
computed for each sample. The result shows that the Brooks and
Corey model is the most consistent in describing the SWCC for sand
soil type. The Brooks and Corey model prediction also exhibit
compatibility with samples ranging from low to high soil water
content in which subjected to the samples that evaluated in this study.
Abstract: This paper describes identification of the two poles
unstable SOPDT process, especially with large time delay. A new
modified relay feedback identification method for two poles unstable
SOPDT process is proposed. Furthermore, for the two poles unstable
SOPDT process, an additional Derivative controller is incorporated
parallel with relay to relax the constraint on the ratio of delay to the
unstable time constant, so that the exact model parameters of
unstable processes can be identified. To cope with measurement
noise in practice, a low pass filter is suggested to get denoised output
signal toimprove the exactness of model parameter of unstable
process. PID Lead-lag tuning formulas are derived for two poles
unstable (SOPDT) processes based on IMC principle. Simulation
example illustrates the effectiveness and the simplicity of the
proposed identification and control method.
Abstract: The direct synthesis process of dimethyl ether (DME)
from syngas in slurry reactors is considered to be promising because
of its advantages in caloric transfer. In this paper, the influences of
operating conditions (temperature, pressure and weight hourly space
velocity) on the conversion of CO, selectivity of DME and methanol
were studied in a stirred autoclave over Cu-Zn-Al-Zr slurry catalyst,
which is far more suitable to liquid phase dimethyl ether synthesis
process than bifunctional catalyst commercially. A Langmuir-
Hinshelwood mechanism type global kinetics model for liquid phase
DME direct synthesis based on methanol synthesis models and a
methanol dehydration model has been investigated by fitting our
experimental data. The model parameters were estimated with
MATLAB program based on general Genetic Algorithms and
Levenberg-Marquardt method, which is suitably fitting experimental
data and its reliability was verified by statistical test and residual
error analysis.
Abstract: AAM (active appearance model) has been successfully
applied to face and facial feature localization. However, its performance is sensitive to initial parameter values. In this paper, we propose a two-stage AAM for robust face alignment, which first fits an
inner face-AAM model to the inner facial feature points of the face and then localizes the whole face and facial features by optimizing the
whole face-AAM model parameters. Experiments show that the proposed face alignment method using two-stage AAM is more reliable to the background and the head pose than the standard
AAM-based face alignment method.
Abstract: A proposed small-signal model parameters for a pseudomorphic high electron mobility transistor (PHEMT) is presented. Both extrinsic and intrinsic circuit elements of a smallsignal model are determined using genetic algorithm (GA) as a stochastic global search and optimization tool. The parameters extraction of the small-signal model is performed on 200-μm gate width AlGaAs/InGaAs PHEMT. The equivalent circuit elements for a proposed 18 elements model are determined directly from the measured S- parameters. The GA is used to extract the parameters of the proposed small-signal model from 0.5 up to 18 GHz.
Abstract: Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil
hydraulic properties which is widely used in environmental studies
especially subsurface ground water. Since, its direct measurement is
time consuming and therefore costly, indirect methods such as
pedotransfer functions have been developed based on multiple linear
regression equations and neural networks model in order to estimate
saturated hydraulic conductivity from readily available soil
properties e.g. sand, silt, and clay contents, bulk density, and organic
matter. The objective of this study was to develop neural networks
(NNs) model to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from
available parameters such as sand and clay contents, bulk density,
van Genuchten retention model parameters (i.e. r
θ , α , and n) as well
as effective porosity. We used two methods to calculate effective
porosity: : (1) eff s FC φ =θ -θ , and (2) inf φ =θ -θ eff s , in which s
θ is
saturated water content, FC θ is water content retained at -33 kPa
matric potential, and inf θ is water content at the inflection point.
Total of 311 soil samples from the UNSODA database was divided
into three groups as 187 for the training, 62 for the validation (to
avoid over training), and 62 for the test of NNs model. A commercial
neural network toolbox of MATLAB software with a multi-layer
perceptron model and back propagation algorithm were used for the
training procedure. The statistical parameters such as correlation
coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were also used to
evaluate the developed NNs model. The best number of neurons in
the middle layer of NNs model for methods (1) and (2) were
calculated 44 and 6, respectively. The R2 and MSE values of the test
phase were determined for method (1), 0.94 and 0.0016, and for
method (2), 0.98 and 0.00065, respectively, which shows that method
(2) estimates saturated hydraulic conductivity better than method (1).
Abstract: A two-parameter fatigue model explicitly accounting for the cyclic as well as the mean stress was used to fit static and fatigue data available in literature concerning carbon fiber reinforced composite laminates subjected tension-tension fatigue. The model confirms the strength–life equal rank assumption and predicts reasonably the probability of failure under cyclic loading. The model parameters were found by best fitting procedures and required a minimum of experimental tests.
Abstract: The rate of nitrate adsorption by a nitrate selective ion
exchange resin was investigated in a well-stirred batch experiments.
The kinetic experimental data were simulated with diffusion models including external mass transfer, particle diffusion and chemical
adsorption. Particle pore volume diffusion and particle surface diffusion were taken into consideration separately and simultaneously
in the modeling. The model equations were solved numerically using the Crank-Nicholson scheme. An optimization technique was
employed to optimize the model parameters. All nitrate concentration
decay data were well described with the all diffusion models. The
results indicated that the kinetic process is initially controlled by external mass transfer and then by particle diffusion. The external
mass transfer coefficient and the coefficients of pore volume diffusion and surface diffusion in all experiments were close to each
other with the average value of 8.3×10-3 cm/S for external mass
transfer coefficient. In addition, the models are more sensitive to the
mass transfer coefficient in comparison with particle diffusion. Moreover, it seems that surface diffusion is the dominant particle
diffusion in comparison with pore volume diffusion.
Abstract: Elastic and inelastic scattering of α-particles by 9Be nuclei at different incident energies have been analyzed. Optical model parameters (OMPs) of α-particles elastic scattering by 9Be at different energies have been obtained. Coupled Reaction Channel (CRC) of elastic scattering, inelastic scattering and transfer reaction has been calculated using Fresco Code. The effect of involving CRC calculations on the analysis of differential cross section has been studied. The transfer reaction of (5He) in the reaction 9Be(α,9Be)α has been studied. The spectroscopic factor of 9Be≡α+5He has been extracted.
Abstract: There is a world-wide need for the development of sustainable management strategies to control pest infestation and the development of phosphine (PH3) resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica). Computer simulation models can provide a relatively fast, safe and inexpensive way to weigh the merits of various management options. However, the usefulness of simulation models relies on the accurate estimation of important model parameters, such as mortality. Concentration and time of exposure are both important in determining mortality in response to a toxic agent. Recent research indicated the existence of two resistance phenotypes in R. dominica in Australia, weak and strong, and revealed that the presence of resistance alleles at two loci confers strong resistance, thus motivating the construction of a two-locus model of resistance. Experimental data sets on purified pest strains, each corresponding to a single genotype of our two-locus model, were also available. Hence it became possible to explicitly include mortalities of the different genotypes in the model. In this paper we described how we used two generalized linear models (GLM), probit and logistic models, to fit the available experimental data sets. We used a direct algebraic approach generalized inverse matrix technique, rather than the traditional maximum likelihood estimation, to estimate the model parameters. The results show that both probit and logistic models fit the data sets well but the former is much better in terms of small least squares (numerical) errors. Meanwhile, the generalized inverse matrix technique achieved similar accuracy results to those from the maximum likelihood estimation, but is less time consuming and computationally demanding.
Abstract: This paper reports the feasibility of the ARMA model
to describe a bursty video source transmitting over a AAL5 ATM link
(VBR traffic). The traffic represents the activity of the action movie
"Lethal Weapon 3" transmitted over the ATM network using the Fore
System AVA-200 ATM video codec with a peak rate of 100 Mbps
and a frame rate of 25. The model parameters were estimated for a
single video source and independently multiplexed video sources. It
was found that the model ARMA (2, 4) is well-suited for the real data
in terms of average rate traffic profile, probability density function,
autocorrelation function, burstiness measure, and the pole-zero
distribution of the filter model.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes
requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work
established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a
suitable tool for developing such models. The current research
focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction
error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in
training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an
observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in
each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used
in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at
hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model,
consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters,
was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and
calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks
for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms,
up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of
processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced
average prediction error compared to previous research across all
horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or
12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12
hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively,
improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these
horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different
initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These
results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider
instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial
weights to establish preferred model parameters.