Ordinal Regression with Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics: A Case Study of an Orienteering Race

In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

A Fundamental Study for Real-Time Safety Evaluation System of Landing Pier Using FBG Sensor

A landing pier is subjected to safety assessment by visual inspection and design data, but it is difficult to check the damage in real-time. In this study, real - time damage detection and safety evaluation methods were studied. As a result of structural analysis of the arbitrary landing pier structure, the inflection point of deformation and moment occurred at 10%, 50%, and 90% of pile length. The critical value of Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensor was set according to the safety factor, and the FBG sensor application method for real - time safety evaluation was derived.

Hot Deformability of Si-Steel Strips Containing Al

The present work is dealing with 2% Si-steel alloy. The alloy contains 0.05% C as well as 0.85% Al. The alloy under investigation would be used for electrical transformation purposes. A heating (expansion) - cooling (contraction) dilation investigation was executed to detect the a, a+g, and g transformation temperatures at the inflection points of the dilation curve. On heating, primary a  was detected at a temperature range between room temperature and 687 oC. The domain of a+g was detected in the range between 687 oC and 746 oC. g phase exists in the closed g region at the range between 746 oC and 1043 oC. The domain of a phase appears again at a temperature range between 1043 and 1105 oC, and followed by secondary a at temperature higher than 1105 oC. A physical simulation of thermo-mechanical processing on the as-cast alloy was carried out. The simulation process took into consideration the hot flat rolling pilot plant parameters. The process was executed on the thermo-mechanical simulator (Gleeble 3500). The process was designed to include seven consecutive passes. The 1st pass represents the roughing stage, while the remaining six passes represent finish rolling stage. The whole process was executed at the temperature range from 1100 oC to 900 oC. The amount of strain starts with 23.5% at the roughing pass and decreases continuously to reach 7.5 % at the last finishing pass. The flow curve of the alloy can be abstracted from the stress-strain curves representing simulated passes. It shows alloy hardening from a pass to the other up to pass no. 6, as a result of decreasing the deformation temperature and increasing of cumulative strain. After pass no. 6, the deformation process enhances the dynamic recrystallization phenomena to appear, where the z-parameter would be high.

Grammatically Coded Corpus of Spoken Lithuanian: Methodology and Development

The paper deals with the main issues of methodology of the Corpus of Spoken Lithuanian which was started to be developed in 2006. At present, the corpus consists of 300,000 grammatically annotated word forms. The creation of the corpus consists of three main stages: collecting the data, the transcription of the recorded data, and the grammatical annotation. Collecting the data was based on the principles of balance and naturality. The recorded speech was transcribed according to the CHAT requirements of CHILDES. The transcripts were double-checked and annotated grammatically using CHILDES. The development of the Corpus of Spoken Lithuanian has led to the constant increase in studies on spontaneous communication, and various papers have dealt with a distribution of parts of speech, use of different grammatical forms, variation of inflectional paradigms, distribution of fillers, syntactic functions of adjectives, the mean length of utterances.

A Linguistic Analysis of the Inconsistencies in the Meaning of Some -er Suffix Morphemes

English like any other language is rich by means of arbitrary, conventional, symbols which lend it to lot of inconsistencies in spelling, phonology, syntax, and morphology. The research examines the irregularities prevalent in the structure and meaning of some ‘er’ lexical items in English and its implication to vocabulary acquisition. It centers its investigation on the derivational suffix ‘er’, which changes the grammatical category of word. English language poses many challenges to Second Language Learners because of its irregularities, exceptions, and rules. One of the meaning of –er derivational suffix is someone or somebody who does something. This rule often confuses the learners when they meet with the exceptions in normal discourse. The need to investigate instances of such inconsistencies in the formation of –er words and the meanings given to such words by the students motivated this study. For this purpose, some senior secondary two (SS2) students in six randomly selected schools in the metropolis were provided a large number of alphabetically selected ‘er’ suffix ending words, The researcher opts for a test technique, which requires them to provide the meaning of the selected words with- er. The marking of the test was scored on the scale of 1-0, where correct formation of –er word and meaning is scored one while wrong formation and meaning is scored zero. The number of wrong and correct formations of –er words meaning were calculated using percentage. The result of this research shows that a large number of students made wrong generalization of the meaning of the selected -er ending words. This shows how enormous the inconsistencies are in English language and how are affect the learning of English. Findings from the study revealed that though students mastered the basic morphological rules but the errors are generally committed on those vocabulary items that are not frequently in use. The study arrives at this conclusion from the survey of their textbook and their spoken activities. Therefore, the researcher recommends that there should be effective reappraisal of language teaching through implementation of the designed curriculum to reflect on modern strategies of teaching language, identification, and incorporation of the exceptions in rigorous communicative activities in language teaching, language course books and tutorials, training and retraining of teachers on the strategies that conform to the new pedagogy.

Morphemic Analysis Awareness: Impact on ESL Students’ Vocabulary Learning Strategy

The research explored the effect of morphemic analysis awareness on ESL secondary school students’ vocabulary acquisition. The quasi-experimental study was conducted with 100 ESL secondary school students in two experimental groups (inflectional and derivational) and one control group. The students’ vocabulary acquisition was assessed through two measures: Morph-Analysis Test and Morph-Vocabulary Test in the pretest and posttest before and after an intervention programme. Results of ANCOVA revealed that both the experimental groups achieved a significant score in Morph- Analysis Test and Vocabulary-Morphemic Test. However, the inflectional group obtained a fairly higher score than the derivational group. Thus, the findings of the research are discussed in two main areas. First, individual instructions of two types of morphemic awareness have contributed significant results on inflectional and derivational awareness among the ESL secondary school students. Nevertheless, derivational morphology achieved a significant but relatively smaller amount of effect on secondary school students’ morphological awareness compared to inflectional morphology in this research. Second finding showed that the awareness of inflectional and derivational morphology was found significantly related to vocabulary achievement of ESL secondary school students. Nevertheless, inflectional morphemic awareness had higher significant effect on ESL secondary school students’ vocabulary acquisition. Despite these findings, the study implies that morphemic analysis awareness can serve as an alternative strategy for ESL secondary school students in acquiring English vocabulary.

Morphemic Analysis Awareness: A Boon or Bane on ESL Students’ Vocabulary Learning Strategy

This study investigated the impact of inflectional and derivational morphemic analysis awareness on ESL secondary school students’ vocabulary learning strategy. The quasi-experimental study was conducted with 106 low proficiency secondary school students in two experimental groups (inflectional and derivational) and one control group. The students’ vocabulary acquisition was assessed through two measures: Morphemic Analysis Test and Vocabulary- Morphemic Test in the pretest and posttest before and after an intervention programme. Results of ANCOVA revealed that both the experimental groups achieved a significant score in Morphemic Analysis Test and Vocabulary-Morphemic Test. However, the inflectional group obtained a fairly higher score than the derivational group. Thus, the results indicated that ESL low proficiency secondary school students performed better on inflectional morphemic awareness as compared to derivatives. The results also showed that the awareness of inflectional morphology contributed more on the vocabulary acquisition. Importantly, learning inflectional morphology can help ESL low proficiency secondary school students to develop both morphemic awareness and vocabulary gain. Theoretically, these findings show that not all morphemes are equally useful to students for their language development. Practically, these findings indicate that morphological instruction should at least be included in remediation and instructional efforts with struggling learners across all grade levels, allowing them to focus on meaning within the word before they attempt the text in large for better comprehension. Also, by methodologically, by conducting individualized intervention and assessment this study provided fresh empirical evidence to support the existing literature on morphemic analysis awareness and vocabulary learning strategy. Thus, a major pedagogical implication of the study is that morphemic analysis awareness strategy is a definite boon for ESL secondary school students in learning English vocabulary.

Error Analysis of English Inflection among Thai University Students

The linguistic competence of Thai university students majoring in Business English was examined in the context of knowledge of English language inflection, and also various linguistic elements. Errors analysis was applied to the results of the testing. Levels of errors in inflection, tense and linguistic elements were shown to be significantly high for all noun, verb and adjective inflections. Findings suggest that students do not gain linguistic competence in their use of English language inflection, because of interlanguage interference. Implications for curriculum reform and treatment of errors in the classroom are discussed.

On Discretization of Second-order Derivatives in Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics

Discretization of spatial derivatives is an important issue in meshfree methods especially when the derivative terms contain non-linear coefficients. In this paper, various methods used for discretization of second-order spatial derivatives are investigated in the context of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. Three popular forms (i.e. "double summation", "second-order kernel derivation", and "difference scheme") are studied using one-dimensional unsteady heat conduction equation. To assess these schemes, transient response to a step function initial condition is considered. Due to parabolic nature of the heat equation, one can expect smooth and monotone solutions. It is shown, however in this paper, that regardless of the type of kernel function used and the size of smoothing radius, the double summation discretization form leads to non-physical oscillations which persist in the solution. Also, results show that when a second-order kernel derivative is used, a high-order kernel function shall be employed in such a way that the distance of inflection point from origin in the kernel function be less than the nearest particle distance. Otherwise, solutions may exhibit oscillations near discontinuities unlike the "difference scheme" which unconditionally produces monotone results.

Estimating Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity from Soil Physical Properties using Neural Networks Model

Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil hydraulic properties which is widely used in environmental studies especially subsurface ground water. Since, its direct measurement is time consuming and therefore costly, indirect methods such as pedotransfer functions have been developed based on multiple linear regression equations and neural networks model in order to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from readily available soil properties e.g. sand, silt, and clay contents, bulk density, and organic matter. The objective of this study was to develop neural networks (NNs) model to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from available parameters such as sand and clay contents, bulk density, van Genuchten retention model parameters (i.e. r θ , α , and n) as well as effective porosity. We used two methods to calculate effective porosity: : (1) eff s FC φ =θ -θ , and (2) inf φ =θ -θ eff s , in which s θ is saturated water content, FC θ is water content retained at -33 kPa matric potential, and inf θ is water content at the inflection point. Total of 311 soil samples from the UNSODA database was divided into three groups as 187 for the training, 62 for the validation (to avoid over training), and 62 for the test of NNs model. A commercial neural network toolbox of MATLAB software with a multi-layer perceptron model and back propagation algorithm were used for the training procedure. The statistical parameters such as correlation coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were also used to evaluate the developed NNs model. The best number of neurons in the middle layer of NNs model for methods (1) and (2) were calculated 44 and 6, respectively. The R2 and MSE values of the test phase were determined for method (1), 0.94 and 0.0016, and for method (2), 0.98 and 0.00065, respectively, which shows that method (2) estimates saturated hydraulic conductivity better than method (1).

The Use of S Curves in Technology Forecasting and its Application On 3D TV Technology

S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies. However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages, disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on 3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the results will be discussed.

Effect of Buoyancy Ratio on Non-Darcy Mixed Convection in a Vertical Channel: A Thermal Non-equilibrium Approach

This article presents a numerical study of the doublediffusive mixed convection in a vertical channel filled with porous medium by using non-equilibrium model. The flow is assumed fully developed, uni-directional and steady state. The controlling parameters are thermal Rayleigh number (RaT ), Darcy number (Da), Forchheimer number (F), buoyancy ratio (N), inter phase heat transfer coefficient (H), and porosity scaled thermal conductivity ratio (γ). The Brinkman-extended non-Darcy model is considered. The governing equations are solved by spectral collocation method. The main emphasize is given on flow profiles as well as heat and solute transfer rates, when two diffusive components in terms of buoyancy ratio are in favor (against) of each other and solid matrix and fluid are thermally non-equilibrium. The results show that, for aiding flow (RaT = 1000), the heat transfer rate of fluid (Nuf ) increases upto a certain value of H, beyond that decreases smoothly and converges to a constant, whereas in case of opposing flow (RaT = -1000), the result is same for N = 0 and 1. The variation of Nuf in (N, Nuf )-plane shows sinusoidal pattern for RaT = -1000. For both cases (aiding and opposing) the flow destabilize on increasing N by inviting point of inflection or flow separation on the velocity profile. Overall, the buoyancy force have significant impact on the non-Darcy mixed convection under LTNE conditions.

Cost and Productivity Experiences of Pakistan with Aggregate Learning Curve

The principal focus of this study is on the measurement and analysis of labor learnings in Pakistan. The study at the aggregate economy level focus on the labor productivity movements and at large-scale manufacturing level focus on the cost structure, with isolating the contribution of the learning curve. The analysis of S-shaped curve suggests that learnings are only below one half of aggregate learning curve and other half shows the retardation in learning, hence retardation in productivity movements. The study implies the existence of learning economies in term of cost reduction that is input cost per unit produced decreases by 0.51 percent every time the cumulative production output doubles.

Morpho-Phonological Modelling in Natural Language Processing

In this paper we propose a computational model for the representation and processing of morpho-phonological phenomena in a natural language, like Modern Greek. We aim at a unified treatment of inflection, compounding, and word-internal phonological changes, in a model that is used for both analysis and generation. After discussing certain difficulties cuase by well-known finitestate approaches, such as Koskenniemi-s two-level model [7] when applied to a computational treatment of compounding, we argue that a morphology-based model provides a more adequate account of word-internal phenomena. Contrary to the finite state approaches that cannot handle hierarchical word constituency in a satisfactory way, we propose a unification-based word grammar, as the nucleus of our strategy, which takes into consideration word representations that are based on affixation and [stem stem] or [stem word] compounds. In our formalism, feature-passing operations are formulated with the use of the unification device, and phonological rules modeling the correspondence between lexical and surface forms apply at morpheme boundaries. In the paper, examples from Modern Greek illustrate our approach. Morpheme structures, stress, and morphologically conditioned phoneme changes are analyzed and generated in a principled way.

Study of the Effect of Over-expansion Factor on the Flow Transition in Dual Bell Nozzles

Dual bell nozzle is a promising one among the altitude adaptation nozzle concepts, which offer increased nozzle performance in rocket engines. Its advantage is the simplicity it offers due to the absence of any additional mechanical device or movable parts. Hence it offers reliability along with improved nozzle performance as demanded by future launch vehicles. Among other issues, the flow transition to the extension nozzle of a dual bell nozzle is one of the major issues being studied in the development of dual bell nozzle. A parameter named over-expansion factor, which controls the value of the wall inflection angle, has been reported to have substantial influence in this transition process. This paper studies, through CFD and cold flow experiments, the effect of overexpansion factor on flow transition in dual bell nozzles.

Fuzzy Control of the Air Conditioning System at Different Operating Pressures

The present work demonstrates the design and simulation of a fuzzy control of an air conditioning system at different pressures. The first order Sugeno fuzzy inference system is utilized to model the system and create the controller. In addition, an estimation of the heat transfer rate and water mass flow rate injection into or withdraw from the air conditioning system is determined by the fuzzy IF-THEN rules. The approach starts by generating the input/output data. Then, the subtractive clustering algorithm along with least square estimation (LSE) generates the fuzzy rules that describe the relationship between input/output data. The fuzzy rules are tuned by Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The results show that when the pressure increases the amount of water flow rate and heat transfer rate decrease within the lower ranges of inlet dry bulb temperatures. On the other hand, and as pressure increases the amount of water flow rate and heat transfer rate increases within the higher ranges of inlet dry bulb temperatures. The inflection in the pressure effect trend occurs at lower temperatures as the inlet air humidity increases.