Abstract: Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.
Abstract: In general, issues related to design and maintenance are considered in an independent manner. However, the decisions made in these two sets influence each other. The design for maintenance is considered an opportunity to optimize the life cycle cost of a product, particularly in the nuclear or aeronautical field, where maintenance expenses represent more than 60% of life cycle costs. The design of large-scale systems starts with product architecture, a choice of components in terms of cost, reliability, weight and other attributes, corresponding to the specifications. On the other hand, the design must take into account maintenance by improving, in particular, real-time monitoring of equipment through the integration of new technologies such as connected sensors and intelligent actuators. We noticed that different approaches used in the Design For Maintenance (DFM) methods are limited to the simultaneous characterization of the reliability and maintainability of a multi-component system. This article proposes a method of DFM that assists designers to propose dynamic maintenance for multi-component industrial systems. The term "dynamic" refers to the ability to integrate available monitoring data to adapt the maintenance decision in real time. The goal is to maximize the availability of the system at a given life cycle cost. This paper presents an approach for simultaneous optimization of the design and maintenance of multi-component systems. Here the design is characterized by four decision variables for each component (reliability level, maintainability level, redundancy level, and level of monitoring data). The maintenance is characterized by two decision variables (the dates of the maintenance stops and the maintenance operations to be performed on the system during these stops). The DFM model helps the designers choose technical solutions for the large-scale industrial products. Large-scale refers to the complex multi-component industrial systems and long life-cycle, such as trains, aircraft, etc. The method is based on a two-level hybrid algorithm for simultaneous optimization of design and maintenance, using genetic algorithms. The first level is to select a design solution for a given system that considers the life cycle cost and the reliability. The second level consists of determining a dynamic and optimal maintenance plan to be deployed for a design solution. This level is based on the Maintenance Free Operating Period (MFOP) concept, which takes into account the decision criteria such as, total reliability, maintenance cost and maintenance time. Depending on the life cycle duration, the desired availability, and the desired business model (sales or rental), this tool provides visibility of overall costs and optimal product architecture.
Abstract: This paper presents the techno-economic evaluation of run-of-river small-hydropower plants. In this regard, a multi-objective optimization procedure is proposed for the optimal sizing of the hydropower plants, and NSGAII is employed as the optimization algorithm. Annual generated energy and investment cost are considered as the objective functions, and number of generator units (n) and nominal turbine flow rate (QT) constitute the decision variables. Site of Yeripao in Benin is considered as the case study. We have categorized the river of this site using its environmental characteristics: gross head, and first quartile, median, third quartile and mean of flow. Effects of each decision variable on the objective functions are analysed. The results gave Pareto Front which represents the trade-offs between annual energy generation and the investment cost of hydropower plants, as well as the recommended optimal solutions. We noted that with the increase of the annual energy generation, the investment cost rises. Thus, maximizing energy generation is contradictory with minimizing the investment cost. Moreover, we have noted that the solutions of Pareto Front are grouped according to the number of generator units (n). The results also illustrate that the costs per kWh are grouped according to the n and rise with the increase of the nominal turbine flow rate. The lowest investment costs per kWh are obtained for n equal to one and are between 0.065 and 0.180 €/kWh. Following the values of n (equal to 1, 2, 3 or 4), the investment cost and investment cost per kWh increase almost linearly with increasing the nominal turbine flowrate while annual generated. Energy increases logarithmically with increasing of the nominal turbine flowrate. This study made for the Yeripao river can be applied to other rivers with their own characteristics.
Abstract: Economic optimization of shell and tube heat exchanger (STHE) is presented in this paper. To increase the rate of heat transfer, copper oxide (CuO) nanoparticle is added into the tube side fluid and their optimum results are compared with the case of without additive nanoparticle. Total annual cost (TAC) is selected as fitness function and nine decision variables related to the heat exchanger parameters as well as concentration of nanoparticle are considered. Optimization results reveal the noticeable improvement in the TAC and in the case of heat exchanger working with nanofluid compared with the case of base fluid (8.9%). Comparison of the results between two studied cases also reveal that the lower tube diameter, tube number, and baffle spacing are needed in the case of heat exchanger working with nanofluid compared with the case of base fluid.
Abstract: An optimization scheme based on COM server is suggested for communication between Genetic Algorithm (GA) toolbox of MATLAB and Aspen HYSYS. The structure and details of the proposed framework are discussed. The power of the developed scheme is illustrated by its application to the optimization of a recently developed natural gas liquefaction process in which Aspen HYSYS was used for minimization of the power consumption by optimizing the values of five operating variables. In this work, optimization by coupling between the GA in MATLAB and Aspen HYSYS model of the same process using the same five decision variables enabled improvements in power consumption by 3.3%, when 77% of the natural gas feed is liquefied. Also on inclusion of the flow rates of both nitrogen and carbon dioxide refrigerants as two additional decision variables, the power consumption decreased by 6.5% for a 78% liquefaction of the natural gas feed.
Abstract: In this article, the flexible job-shop scheduling problem is extended by consideration of energy costs which arise owing to the power peak, and further decision variables such as work in process and throughput time are incorporated into the objective function. This enables a production plan to be simultaneously optimized in respect of the real arising energy and logistics costs. The energy-costs-aware flexible job-shop scheduling problem (EFJSP) which arises is described mathematically, and a memetic algorithm (MA) is presented as a solution. In the MA, the evolutionary process is supplemented with a local search. Furthermore, repair procedures are used in order to rectify any infeasible solutions that have arisen in the evolutionary process. The potential for lowering the real arising costs of a production plan through consideration of energy consumption levels is highlighted.
Abstract: In this paper, a method is proposed for solving Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming problems (FMOLPP) with fuzzy right hand side and fuzzy decision variables. To illustrate the proposed method, it is applied to the problem of selecting suppliers for an automotive parts producer company in Iran in order to find the number of optimal orders allocated to each supplier considering the conflicting objectives. Finally, the obtained results are discussed.
Abstract: The paper presented a sustainable design model for integrated evaluation of the design and supply chain of a product for the sustainable objectives. To design a product, there can be alternative ways to assign the detailed specifications to fulfill the same design objectives. In the design alternative cases, different material and manufacturing processes with various supply chain activities may be required for the production. Therefore, it is required to evaluate the different design cases based on the sustainable objectives. In this research, a closed-loop design model is developed by integrating the forward design model and reverse design model. From the supply chain point of view, the decisions in the forward design model are connected with the forward supply chain. The decisions in the reverse design model are connected with the reverse supply chain considering the sustainable objectives. The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical model for analyzing the design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria in the closed-loop design and the closed-loop supply chain. The decision variables are built to represent the design cases of the forward design and reverse design. The cost parameters in a forward design include the costs of material and manufacturing processes. The cost parameters in a reverse design include the costs of recycling, disassembly, reusing, remanufacturing, and disposing. The mathematical model is formulated to minimize the total cost under the design constraints. In practical applications, the decisions of the mathematical model can be used for selecting a design case for the purpose of sustainable design of a product. An example product is demonstrated in the paper. The test result shows that the sustainable design model is useful for integrated evaluation of the design and the supply chain to achieve the sustainable objectives.
Abstract: Concurrent planning of project scheduling and
material ordering can provide more flexibility to the project
scheduling problem, as the project execution costs can be enhanced.
Hence, the issue has been taken into account in this paper. To do so, a
mixed-integer mathematical model is developed which considers the
aforementioned flexibility, in addition to the materials quantity
discount and space availability restrictions. Moreover, the activities
duration has been treated as decision variables. Finally, the efficiency
of the proposed model is tested by different instances. Additionally,
the influence of the aforementioned parameters is investigated on the
model performance.
Abstract: Perfectly suited for natural or man-made emergency and disaster management situations such as flood, earthquakes, tornadoes, or tsunami, multi-target search path planning for a team of rescue agents is known to be computationally hard, and most techniques developed so far come short to successfully estimate optimality gap. A novel mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) formulation is proposed to optimally solve the multi-target multi-agent discrete search and rescue (SAR) path planning problem. Aimed at maximizing cumulative probability of successful target detection, it captures anticipated feedback information associated with possible observation outcomes resulting from projected path execution, while modeling agent discrete actions over all possible moving directions. Problem modeling further takes advantage of network representation to encompass decision variables, expedite compact constraint specification, and lead to substantial problem-solving speed-up. The proposed MIP approach uses CPLEX optimization machinery, efficiently computing near-optimal solutions for practical size problems, while giving a robust upper bound obtained from Lagrangean integrality constraint relaxation. Should eventually a target be positively detected during plan execution, a new problem instance would simply be reformulated from the current state, and then solved over the next decision cycle. A computational experiment shows the feasibility and the value of the proposed approach.
Abstract: This paper suggests a decision tree based approach for flexible job shop scheduling with multiple process plans, i.e. each job can be processed through alternative operations, each of which can be processed on alternative machines. The main decision variables are: (a) selecting operation/machine pair; and (b) sequencing the jobs assigned to each machine. As an extension of the priority scheduling approach that selects the best priority rule combination after many simulation runs, this study suggests a decision tree based approach in which a decision tree is used to select a priority rule combination adequate for a specific system state and hence the burdens required for developing simulation models and carrying out simulation runs can be eliminated. The decision tree based scheduling approach consists of construction and scheduling modules. In the construction module, a decision tree is constructed using a four-stage algorithm, and in the scheduling module, a priority rule combination is selected using the decision tree. To show the performance of the decision tree based approach suggested in this study, a case study was done on a flexible job shop with reconfigurable manufacturing cells and a conventional job shop, and the results are reported by comparing it with individual priority rule combinations for the objectives of minimizing total flow time and total tardiness.
Abstract: Collaborative planning, forecasting and
replenishment (CPFR) coordinates the various supply chain
management activities including production and purchase planning,
demand forecasting and inventory replenishment between supply
chain trading partners. This study proposes a systematic way of
analyzing CPFR supporting factors using fuzzy cognitive map
(FCM) approach. FCMs have proven particularly useful for solving
problems in which a number of decision variables and
uncontrollable variables are causally interrelated. Hence the FCMs
of CPFR are created to show the relationships between the factors
that influence on effective implementation of CPFR in the supply
chain.
Abstract: This paper introduces a mixed integer programming model to find the optimum development plan for port Anzali. The model minimizes total system costs taking into account both port infrastructure costs and shipping costs. Due to the multipurpose function of the port, the model consists of 1020 decision variables and 2490 constraints. Results of the model determine the optimum number of berths that should be constructed in each period and for each type of cargo. In addition to, the results of sensitivity analysis on port operation quantity provide useful information for managers to choose the best scenario for port planning with the lowest investment risks. Despite all limitations-due to data availability-the model offers a straightforward decision tools to port planners aspiring to achieve optimum port planning steps.
Abstract: This paper proposes a meta-heuristic called Ant Colony Optimization to solve multi-objective production problems. The multi-objective function is to minimize lead time and work in process. The problem is related to the decision variables, i.e.; distance and process time. According to decision criteria, the mathematical model is formulated. In order to solve the model an ant colony optimization approach has been developed. The proposed algorithm is parameterized by the number of ant colonies and the number of pheromone trails. One example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed formulations; Max-Min Ant system are then used to solve the problem and the results evaluate the performance and efficiency of the proposed algorithm using simulation.
Abstract: In this paper multi-objective genetic algorithms are
employed for Pareto approach optimization of ideal Turboshaft
engines. In the multi-objective optimization a number of conflicting
objective functions are to be optimized simultaneously. The
important objective functions that have been considered for
optimization are specific thrust (F/m& 0), specific fuel consumption
( P S ), output shaft power 0 (& /&) shaft W m and overall efficiency( ) O
η .
These objectives are usually conflicting with each other. The design
variables consist of thermodynamic parameters (compressor pressure
ratio, turbine temperature ratio and Mach number).
At the first stage single objective optimization has been
investigated and the method of NSGA-II has been used for multiobjective
optimization. Optimization procedures are performed for
two and four objective functions and the results are compared for
ideal Turboshaft engine. In order to investigate the optimal
thermodynamic behavior of two objectives, different set, each
including two objectives of output parameters, are considered
individually. For each set Pareto front are depicted. The sets of
selected decision variables based on this Pareto front, will cause the
best possible combination of corresponding objective functions.
There is no superiority for the points on the Pareto front figure,
but they are superior to any other point. In the case of four objective
optimization the results are given in tables.
Abstract: Because of importance of energy, optimization of
power generation systems is necessary. Gas turbine cycles are
suitable manner for fast power generation, but their efficiency is
partly low. In order to achieving higher efficiencies, some
propositions are preferred such as recovery of heat from exhaust
gases in a regenerator, utilization of intercooler in a multistage
compressor, steam injection to combustion chamber and etc.
However thermodynamic optimization of gas turbine cycle, even
with above components, is necessary. In this article multi-objective
genetic algorithms are employed for Pareto approach optimization of
Regenerative-Intercooling-Gas Turbine (RIGT) cycle. In the multiobjective
optimization a number of conflicting objective functions
are to be optimized simultaneously. The important objective
functions that have been considered for optimization are entropy
generation of RIGT cycle (Ns) derives using Exergy Analysis and
Gouy-Stodola theorem, thermal efficiency and the net output power
of RIGT Cycle. These objectives are usually conflicting with each
other. The design variables consist of thermodynamic parameters
such as compressor pressure ratio (Rp), excess air in combustion
(EA), turbine inlet temperature (TIT) and inlet air temperature (T0).
At the first stage single objective optimization has been investigated
and the method of Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm
(NSGA-II) has been used for multi-objective optimization.
Optimization procedures are performed for two and three objective
functions and the results are compared for RIGT Cycle. In order to
investigate the optimal thermodynamic behavior of two objectives,
different set, each including two objectives of output parameters, are
considered individually. For each set Pareto front are depicted. The
sets of selected decision variables based on this Pareto front, will
cause the best possible combination of corresponding objective
functions. There is no superiority for the points on the Pareto front
figure, but they are superior to any other point. In the case of three
objective optimization the results are given in tables.
Abstract: This paper presents the identification of the impact
force acting on a simply supported beam. The force identification is
an inverse problem in which the measured response of the structure is
used to determine the applied force. The identification problem is
formulated as an optimization problem and the genetic algorithm is
utilized to solve the optimization problem. The objective function is
calculated on the difference between analytical and measured
responses and the decision variables are the location and magnitude
of the applied force. The results from simulation show the
effectiveness of the approach and its robustness vs. the measurement
noise and sensor location.
Abstract: Owing the fact that optimization of business process
is a crucial requirement to navigate, survive and even thrive in
today-s volatile business environment, this paper presents a
framework for selecting a best-fit optimization package for solving
complex business problems. Complexity level of the problem and/or
using incorrect optimization software can lead to biased solutions of
the optimization problem. Accordingly, the proposed framework
identifies a number of relevant factors (e.g. decision variables,
objective functions, and modeling approach) to be considered during
the evaluation and selection process. Application domain, problem
specifications, and available accredited optimization approaches are
also to be regarded. A recommendation of one or two optimization
software is the output of the framework which is believed to provide
the best results of the underlying problem. In addition to a set of
guidelines and recommendations on how managers can conduct an
effective optimization exercise is discussed.
Abstract: The design of a steam turbine is a very complex
engineering operation that can be simplified and improved thanks to
computer-aided multi-objective optimization. This process makes use
of existing optimization algorithms and losses correlations to identify
those geometries that deliver the best balance of performance (i.e.
Pareto-optimal points).
This paper deals with a one-dimensional multi-objective and
multi-point optimization of a single-stage steam turbine. Using a
genetic optimization algorithm and an algebraic one-dimensional
ideal gas-path model based on loss and deviation correlations, a code
capable of performing the optimization of a predefined steam turbine
stage was developed. More specifically, during this study the
parameters modified (i.e. decision variables) to identify the best
performing geometries were solidity and angles both for stator and
rotor cascades, while the objective functions to maximize were totalto-
static efficiency and specific work done.
Finally, an accurate analysis of the obtained results was carried
out.
Abstract: In high powered dense wavelength division
multiplexed (WDM) systems with low chromatic dispersion,
four-wave mixing (FWM) can prove to be a major source of noise.
The MultiCanonical Monte Carlo Method (MCMC) and the Split
Step Fourier Method (SSFM) are combined to accurately evaluate the
probability density function of the decision variable of a receiver,
limited by FWM. The combination of the two methods leads to more
accurate results, and offers the possibility of adding other optical
noises such as the Amplified Spontaneous Emission (ASE) noise.