Abstract: In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.
Abstract: This work is devoted to the study of modeling
geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying
parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in
geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic
first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of
log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly
improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood
estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm
for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2
standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good
convergence properties.
Abstract: In this paper, a robust fault detection and isolation
(FDI) scheme is developed to monitor a multivariable nonlinear
chemical process called the Chylla-Haase polymerization reactor,
when it is under the cascade PI control. The scheme employs a radial
basis function neural network (RBFNN) in an independent mode to
model the process dynamics, and using the weighted sum-squared
prediction error as the residual. The Recursive Orthogonal Least
Squares algorithm (ROLS) is employed to train the model to
overcome the training difficulty of the independent mode of the
network. Then, another RBFNN is used as a fault classifier to isolate
faults from different features involved in the residual vector. Several
actuator and sensor faults are simulated in a nonlinear simulation of
the reactor in Simulink. The scheme is used to detect and isolate the
faults on-line. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the
scheme even the process is subjected to disturbances and
uncertainties including significant changes in the monomer feed rate,
fouling factor, impurity factor, ambient temperature, and
measurement noise. The simulation results are presented to illustrate
the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.
Abstract: This paper aims at experimental and numerical investigation of springback behavior of sheet metals during L-bending process with emphasis on Stribeck-type friction modeling. The coefficient of friction in Stribeck curve depends on sliding velocity and contact pressure. The springback behavior of mild steel and aluminum alloy 6022-T4 sheets was studied experimentally and using numerical simulations with ABAQUS software with two types of friction model: Coulomb friction and Stribeck friction. The influence of forming speed on springback behavior was studied experimentally and numerically. The results showed that Stribeck-type friction model has better results in predicting springback in sheet metal forming. The FE prediction error for mild steel and 6022-T4 AA is 23.8%, 25.5% respectively, using Coulomb friction model and 11%, 13% respectively, using Stribeck friction model. These results show that Stribeck model is suitable for simulation of sheet metal forming especially at higher forming speed.
Abstract: Microscopic emission and fuel consumption models
have been widely recognized as an effective method to quantify real
traffic emission and energy consumption when they are applied with
microscopic traffic simulation models. This paper presents a
framework for developing the Microscopic Emission (HC, CO, NOx,
and CO2) and Fuel consumption (MEF) models for light-duty
vehicles. The variable of composite acceleration is introduced into
the MEF model with the purpose of capturing the effects of historical
accelerations interacting with current speed on emission and fuel
consumption. The MEF model is calibrated by multivariate
least-squares method for two types of light-duty vehicle using
on-board data collected in Beijing, China by a Portable Emission
Measurement System (PEMS). The instantaneous validation results
shows the MEF model performs better with lower Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to other two models. Moreover,
the aggregate validation results tells the MEF model produces
reasonable estimations compared to actual measurements with
prediction errors within 12%, 10%, 19%, and 9% for HC, CO, NOx
emissions and fuel consumption, respectively.
Abstract: This paper presents a new approach in the identification of the quadrotor dynamic model using a black-box system for identification. Also the paper considers the problems which appear during the identification in the closed-loop and offers a technical solution for overcoming the correlation between the input noise present in the output
Abstract: In the paper an effective context based lossless coding
technique is presented. Three principal and few auxiliary contexts are
defined. The predictor adaptation technique is an improved CoBALP
algorithm, denoted CoBALP+. Cumulated predictor error combining
8 bias estimators is calculated. It is shown experimentally that
indeed, the new technique is time-effective while it outperforms the
well known methods having reasonable time complexity, and is
inferior only to extremely computationally complex ones.
Abstract: Dynamic bandwidth allocation in EPONs can be
generally separated into inter-ONU scheduling and intra-ONU scheduling. In our previous work, the active intra-ONU scheduling
(AS) utilizes multiple queue reports (QRs) in each report message to cooperate with the inter-ONU scheduling and makes the granted
bandwidth fully utilized without leaving unused slot remainder (USR).
This scheme successfully solves the USR problem originating from the
inseparability of Ethernet frame. However, without proper setting of
threshold value in AS, the number of QRs constrained by the IEEE
802.3ah standard is not enough, especially in the unbalanced traffic
environment. This limitation may be solved by enlarging the threshold
value. The large threshold implies the large gap between the adjacent QRs, thus resulting in the large difference between the best granted bandwidth and the real granted bandwidth. In this paper, we integrate
AS with a cooperative prediction mechanism and distribute multiple
QRs to reduce the penalty brought by the prediction error.
Furthermore, to improve the QoS and save the usage of queue reports,
the highest priority (EF) traffic which comes during the waiting time is
granted automatically by OLT and is not considered in the requested
bandwidth of ONU. The simulation results show that the proposed
scheme has better performance metrics in terms of bandwidth
utilization and average delay for different classes of packets.
Abstract: In this paper a new Joint Adaptive Block Matching
Search (JABMS) algorithm is proposed to generate motion vector
and search a best match macro block by classifying the motion vector
movement based on prediction error. Diamond Search (DS)
algorithm generates high estimation accuracy when motion vector is
small and Adaptive Rood Pattern Search (ARPS) algorithm can
handle large motion vector but is not very accurate. The proposed
JABMS algorithm which is capable of considering both small and
large motions gives improved estimation accuracy and the
computational cost is reduced by 15.2 times compared with
Exhaustive Search (ES) algorithm and is 1.3 times less compared
with Diamond search algorithm.
Abstract: This paper addresses the problem of how one can
improve the performance of a non-optimal filter. First the theoretical question on dynamical representation for a given time correlated
random process is studied. It will be demonstrated that for a wide class of random processes, having a canonical form, there exists
a dynamical system equivalent in the sense that its output has the
same covariance function. It is shown that the dynamical approach is more effective for simulating and estimating a Markov and non-
Markovian random processes, computationally is less demanding,
especially with increasing of the dimension of simulated processes.
Numerical examples and estimation problems in low dimensional
systems are given to illustrate the advantages of the approach. A very useful application of the proposed approach is shown for the
problem of state estimation in very high dimensional systems. Here a modified filter for data assimilation in an oceanic numerical model
is presented which is proved to be very efficient due to introducing
a simple Markovian structure for the output prediction error process
and adaptive tuning some parameters of the Markov equation.
Abstract: To define or predict incipient motion in an alluvial
channel, most of the investigators use a standard or modified form of
Shields- diagram. Shields- diagram does give a process to determine
the incipient motion parameters but an iterative one. To design
properly (without iteration), one should have another equation for
resistance. Absence of a universal resistance equation also magnifies
the difficulties in defining the model. Neural network technique,
which is particularly useful in modeling a complex processes, is
presented as a tool complimentary to modeling incipient motion.
Present work develops a neural network model employing the RBF
network to predict the average velocity u and water depth y based on
the experimental data on incipient condition. Based on the model,
design curves have been presented for the field application.
Abstract: This study describes the methodology for the development of a validated in-vitro in-vivo correlation (IVIVC) for metoprolol tartrate modified release dosage forms with distinctive release rate characteristics. Modified release dosage forms were formulated by microencapsulation of metoprolol tartrate into different amounts of ethylcellulose by non-solvent addition technique. Then in-vitro and in-vivo studies were conducted to develop and validate level A IVIVC for metoprolol tartrate. The values of regression co-efficient (R2-values) for IVIVC of T2 and T3 formulations were not significantly (p
Abstract: An alternative approach to the use of Discrete Fourier
Transform (DFT) for Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) reconstruction
is the use of parametric modeling technique. This method
is suitable for problems in which the image can be modeled by
explicit known source functions with a few adjustable parameters.
Despite the success reported in the use of modeling technique as an
alternative MRI reconstruction technique, two important problems
constitutes challenges to the applicability of this method, these are
estimation of Model order and model coefficient determination. In
this paper, five of the suggested method of evaluating the model
order have been evaluated, these are: The Final Prediction Error
(FPE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Residual Variance (RV),
Minimum Description Length (MDL) and Hannan and Quinn (HNQ)
criterion. These criteria were evaluated on MRI data sets based on the
method of Transient Error Reconstruction Algorithm (TERA). The
result for each criterion is compared to result obtained by the use of a
fixed order technique and three measures of similarity were evaluated.
Result obtained shows that the use of MDL gives the highest measure
of similarity to that use by a fixed order technique.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes
requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work
established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a
suitable tool for developing such models. The current research
focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction
error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in
training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an
observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in
each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used
in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at
hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model,
consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters,
was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and
calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks
for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms,
up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of
processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced
average prediction error compared to previous research across all
horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or
12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12
hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively,
improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these
horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different
initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These
results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider
instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial
weights to establish preferred model parameters.
Abstract: The current methods of predictive controllers are
utilized for those processes in which the rate of output variations is
not high. For such processes, therefore, stability can be achieved by
implementing the constrained predictive controller or applying
infinite prediction horizon. When the rate of the output growth is
high (e.g. for unstable nonminimum phase process) the stabilization
seems to be problematic. In order to avoid this, it is suggested to
change the method in the way that: first, the prediction error growth
should be decreased at the early stage of the prediction horizon, and
second, the rate of the error variation should be penalized. The
growth of the error is decreased through adjusting its weighting
coefficients in the cost function. Reduction in the error variation is
possible by adding the first order derivate of the error into the cost
function. By studying different examples it is shown that using these
two remedies together, the closed-loop stability of unstable
nonminimum phase process can be achieved.
Abstract: An adaptive software reliability prediction model
using evolutionary connectionist approach based on Recurrent Radial
Basis Function architecture is proposed. Based on the currently
available software failure time data, Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm is
used to globally optimize the number of the k Gaussian nodes. The
corresponding optimized neural network architecture is iteratively
and dynamically reconfigured in real-time as new actual failure time
data arrives. The performance of our proposed approach has been
tested using sixteen real-time software failure data. Numerical results
show that our proposed approach is robust across different software
projects, and has a better performance with respect to next-steppredictability
compared to existing neural network model for failure
time prediction.
Abstract: End milling process is one of the common metal
cutting operations used for machining parts in manufacturing
industry. It is usually performed at the final stage in manufacturing a
product and surface roughness of the produced job plays an
important role. In general, the surface roughness affects wear
resistance, ductility, tensile, fatigue strength, etc., for machined parts
and cannot be neglected in design. In the present work an
experimental investigation of end milling of aluminium alloy with
carbide tool is carried out and the effect of different cutting
parameters on the response are studied with three-dimensional
surface plots. An artificial neural network (ANN) is used to establish
the relationship between the surface roughness and the input cutting
parameters (i.e., spindle speed, feed, and depth of cut). The Matlab
ANN toolbox works on feed forward back propagation algorithm is
used for modeling purpose. 3-12-1 network structure having
minimum average prediction error found as best network architecture
for predicting surface roughness value. The network predicts surface
roughness for unseen data and found that the result/prediction is
better. For desired surface finish of the component to be produced
there are many different combination of cutting parameters are
available. The optimum cutting parameter for obtaining desired
surface finish, to maximize tool life is predicted. The methodology is
demonstrated, number of problems are solved and algorithm is coded
in Matlab®.
Abstract: Prior research has not effectively investigated how the
profitability of Chinese branches affect FDIs in China [1, 2], so this
study for the first time incorporates realistic earnings information
to systematically investigate effects of innovation, imitation, and
profit factors of FDI diffusions from Taiwan to China. Our nonlinear
least square (NLS) model, which incorporates earnings factors,
forms a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) in numerical
simulation programs. The model parameters are obtained through
a genetic algorithms (GA) technique and then optimized with the
collected data for the best accuracy. Particularly, Taiwanese regulatory
FDI restrictions are also considered in our modified model to meet
the realistic conditions. To validate the model-s effectiveness, this
investigation compares the prediction accuracy of modified model
with the conventional diffusion model, which does not take account
of the profitability factors.
The results clearly demonstrate the internal influence to be positive,
as early FDI adopters- consistent praises of FDI attract potential firms
to make the same move. The former erects a behavior model for the
latter to imitate their foreign investment decision. Particularly, the
results of modified diffusion models show that the earnings from
Chinese branches are positively related to the internal influence. In
general, the imitating tendency of potential consumers is substantially
hindered by the losses in the Chinese branches, and these firms would
invest less into China. The FDI inflow extension depends on earnings
of Chinese branches, and companies will adjust their FDI strategies
based on the returns. Since this research has proved that earning is
an influential factor on FDI dynamics, our revised model explicitly
performs superior in prediction ability than conventional diffusion
model.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.
Abstract: Response surface methodology (RSM) is a very
efficient tool to provide a good practical insight into developing new
process and optimizing them. This methodology could help
engineers to raise a mathematical model to represent the behavior of
system as a convincing function of process parameters.
Through this paper the sequential nature of the RSM surveyed for process
engineers and its relationship to design of experiments (DOE), regression
analysis and robust design reviewed. The proposed four-step procedure in
two different phases could help system analyst to resolve the parameter
design problem involving responses. In order to check accuracy of the
designed model, residual analysis and prediction error sum of squares
(PRESS) described.
It is believed that the proposed procedure in this study can resolve a
complex parameter design problem with one or more responses. It can be
applied to those areas where there are large data sets and a number of
responses are to be optimized simultaneously. In addition, the proposed
procedure is relatively simple and can be implemented easily by using
ready-made standard statistical packages.