Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in
three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data
mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering
into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an
artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented
after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring
error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on
previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of
network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast
for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential
Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based
on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support
vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results
show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in
comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods'
stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of
clustering analysis is measured.
Abstract: The turbulent mixing of coolant streams of different
temperature and density can cause severe temperature fluctuations in
piping systems in nuclear reactors. In certain periodic contraction
cycles these conditions lead to thermal fatigue. The resulting aging
effect prompts investigation in how the mixing of flows over a sharp
temperature/density interface evolves. To study the fundamental
turbulent mixing phenomena in the presence of density gradients,
isokinetic (shear-free) mixing experiments are performed in a square
channel with Reynolds numbers ranging from 2-500 to 60-000.
Sucrose is used to create the density difference. A Wire Mesh Sensor
(WMS) is used to determine the concentration map of the flow in the
cross section. The mean interface width as a function of velocity,
density difference and distance from the mixing point are analyzed
based on traditional methods chosen for the purposes of
atmospheric/oceanic stratification analyses. A definition of the
mixing layer thickness more appropriate to thermal fatigue and based
on mixedness is devised. This definition shows that the thermal
fatigue risk assessed using simple mixing layer growth can be
misleading and why an approach that separates the effects of large
scale (turbulent) and small scale (molecular) mixing is necessary.
Abstract: Today with the rapid growth of telecommunications equipment, electronic and developing more and more networks of power, influence of electromagnetic waves on one another has become hot topic discussions. So in this article, this issue and appropriate mechanisms for EMC operations have been presented. First, impact of high voltage lines on the surrounding environment especially on the control room has been investigated, then to reduce electromagnetic radiation, various methods of shielding are provided and shielding effectiveness of them has been compared. It should be expressed that simulations have been done by the finite element method (FEM).
Abstract: This research was conducted for the first time at the
southeastern coasts of the Caspian Sea in order to evaluate the
performance of osteichthyes cooperatives through production (catch)
function. Using one of the indirect valuation methods in this research,
contributory factors in catch were identified and were inserted into
the function as independent variables. In order to carry out this
research, the performance of 25 Osteichthyes catching cooperatives
in the utilization year of 2009 which were involved in fishing in
Miankale wildlife refuge region. The contributory factors in catch
were divided into groups of economic, ecological and biological
factors. In the mentioned function, catch rate of the cooperative were
inserted into as the dependant variable and fourteen partial variables
in terms of nine general variables as independent variables. Finally,
after function estimation, seven variables were rendered significant at
99 percent reliably level. The results of the function estimation
indicated that human resource (fisherman quantity) had the greatest
positive effect on catch rate with an influence coefficient of 1.7 while
weather conditions had the greatest negative effect on the catch rate
of cooperatives with an influence coefficient of -2.07. Moreover,
factors like member's share, experience and fisherman training and
fishing effort played the main roles in the catch rate of cooperative
with influence coefficients of 0.81, 0.5 and 0.21, respectively.
Abstract: In this paper, a tooth shape optimization method for
cogging torque reduction in Permanent Magnet (PM) motors is
developed by using the Reduced Basis Technique (RBT) coupled by
Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and Design of Experiments (DOE)
methods. The primary objective of the method is to reduce the
enormous number of design variables required to define the tooth
shape. RBT is a weighted combination of several basis shapes. The
aim of the method is to find the best combination using the weights
for each tooth shape as the design variables. A multi-level design
process is developed to find suitable basis shapes or trial shapes at
each level that can be used in the reduced basis technique. Each level
is treated as a separated optimization problem until the required
objective – minimum cogging torque – is achieved. The process is
started with geometrically simple basis shapes that are defined by
their shape co-ordinates. The experimental design of Taguchi method
is used to build the approximation model and to perform
optimization. This method is demonstrated on the tooth shape
optimization of a 8-poles/12-slots PM motor.
Abstract: Increasing growth of information volume in the
internet causes an increasing need to develop new (semi)automatic
methods for retrieval of documents and ranking them according to
their relevance to the user query. In this paper, after a brief review
on ranking models, a new ontology based approach for ranking
HTML documents is proposed and evaluated in various
circumstances. Our approach is a combination of conceptual,
statistical and linguistic methods. This combination reserves the
precision of ranking without loosing the speed. Our approach
exploits natural language processing techniques to extract phrases
from documents and the query and doing stemming on words. Then
an ontology based conceptual method will be used to annotate
documents and expand the query. To expand a query the spread
activation algorithm is improved so that the expansion can be done
flexible and in various aspects. The annotated documents and the
expanded query will be processed to compute the relevance degree
exploiting statistical methods. The outstanding features of our
approach are (1) combining conceptual, statistical and linguistic
features of documents, (2) expanding the query with its related
concepts before comparing to documents, (3) extracting and using
both words and phrases to compute relevance degree, (4) improving
the spread activation algorithm to do the expansion based on
weighted combination of different conceptual relationships and (5)
allowing variable document vector dimensions. A ranking system
called ORank is developed to implement and test the proposed
model. The test results will be included at the end of the paper.
Abstract: The main goal of this paper is to show a possibility, how to solve numerically elliptic boundary value problems arising in 2D linear elasticity by using the fictitious domain method (FDM) and the Total-FETI domain decomposition method. We briefly mention the theoretical background of these methods and demonstrate their performance on a benchmark.
Abstract: Soil washing process with a surfactant solution is a potential technology for the rapid removal of hydrophobic organic compound (HOC) from soil. However, large amount of washed water would be produced during operation and this should be treated effectively by proper methods. The soil washed water for complex contaminated site with HOC and heavy metals might contain high amount of pollutants such as HOC and heavy metals as well as used surfactant. The heavy metals in the soil washed water have toxic effects on microbial activities thus these should be removed from the washed water before proceeding to a biological waste-water treatment system. Moreover, the used surfactant solutions are necessary to be recovered for reducing the soil washing operation cost. In order to simultaneously remove the heavy metals and HOC from soil-washed water, activated carbon (AC) was used in the present study. In an anionic-nonionic surfactant mixed solution, the Cd(II) and phenanthrene (PHE) were effectively removed by adsorption on activated carbon. The removal efficiency for Cd(II) was increased from 0.027 mmol-Cd/g-AC to 0.142 mmol-Cd/g-AC as the mole ratio of SDS increased in the presence of PHE. The adsorptive capacity of PHE was also increased according to the SDS mole ratio due to the decrement of molar solubilization ratios (MSR) for PHE in an anionic-nonionic surfactant mixture. The simultaneous adsorption of HOC and cationic heavy metals using activated carbon could be a useful method for surfactant recovery and the reduction of heavy metal toxicity in a surfactant-enhanced soil washing process.
Abstract: The evaluation of residual reliability of large sized
parallel computer interconnection systems is not practicable with
the existing methods. Under such conditions, one must go for
approximation techniques which provide the upper bound and lower
bound on this reliability. In this context, a new approximation method
for providing bounds on residual reliability is proposed here. The
proposed method is well supported by two algorithms for simulation
purpose. The bounds on residual reliability of three different categories
of interconnection topologies are efficiently found by using
the proposed method
Abstract: Basic objective of this study is to create a regression
analysis method that can estimate the length of a plastic hinge which
is an important design parameter, by making use of the outcomes of
(lateral load-lateral displacement hysteretic curves) the experimental
studies conducted for the reinforced square concrete columns. For
this aim, 170 different square reinforced concrete column tests results
have been collected from the existing literature. The parameters
which are thought affecting the plastic hinge length such as crosssection
properties, features of material used, axial loading level,
confinement of the column, longitudinal reinforcement bars in the
columns etc. have been obtained from these 170 different square
reinforced concrete column tests. In the study, when determining the
length of plastic hinge, using the experimental test results, a
regression analysis have been separately tested and compared with
each other. In addition, the outcome of mentioned methods on
determination of plastic hinge length of the reinforced concrete
columns has been compared to other methods available in the
literature.
Abstract: Population diversification phenomena becomes quite common in villages located in China’s developed coastal area. Based on the analysis of the traditional rural society and its landscape characteristics, and in consideration of diversified landscape requirements due to the population diversification, with dual ideas of heritage and innovation, methods for rural landscape design were explored by taking Duxuao Village in Zhejiang Province of China as an example.
Abstract: Measurement of competitiveness between countries or regions is an important topic of many economic analysis and scientific papers. In European Union (EU), there is no mainstream approach of competitiveness evaluation and measuring. There are many opinions and methods of measurement and evaluation of competitiveness between states or regions at national and European level. The methods differ in structure of using the indicators of competitiveness and ways of their processing. The aim of the paper is to analyze main sources of competitive potential of the EU Member States with the help of Factor analysis (FA) and to classify the EU Member States to homogeneous units (clusters) according to the similarity of selected indicators of competitiveness factors by Cluster analysis (CA) in reference years 2000 and 2011. The theoretical part of the paper is devoted to the fundamental bases of competitiveness and the methodology of FA and CA methods. The empirical part of the paper deals with the evaluation of competitiveness factors in the EU Member States and cluster comparison of evaluated countries by cluster analysis.
Abstract: The distribution, enrichment, and accumulation of zinc
(Zn) in the sediments of Kaohsiung Ocean Disposal Site (KODS),
Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from two outer disposal
site stations and nine disposed stations in the KODS were collected per
quarterly in 2009 and characterized for Zn, aluminum, organic matter,
and grain size. Results showed that the mean Zn concentrations varied
from 48 mg/kg to 456 mg/kg. Results from the enrichment factor (EF)
and geo-accumulation index (Igeo) analyses imply that the sediments
collected from the KODS can be characterized between moderate and
moderately severe degree enrichment and between none and none to
medium accumulation of Zn, respectively. However, results of
potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low
ecological potential risk. The EF, Igeo, and Zn concentrations at the
disposed stations were slightly higher than those at outer disposal site.
This indicated that the disposed area centers may be subjected to the
disposal impaction of harbor dredged sediments.
Abstract: With the development of the Internet, E-commerce is
growing at an exponential rate, and lots of online stores are built up to
sell their goods online. A major factor influencing the successful
adoption of E-commerce is consumer-s trust. For new or unknown
Internet business, consumers- lack of trust has been cited as a major
barrier to its proliferation. As web sites provide key interface for
consumer use of E-Commerce, we investigate the design of web site to
build trust in E-Commerce from a design science approach. A
conceptual model is proposed in this paper to describe the ontology of
online transaction and human-computer interaction. Based on this
conceptual model, we provide a personalized webpage design
approach using Bayesian networks learning method. Experimental
evaluation are designed to show the effectiveness of web
personalization in improving consumer-s trust in new or unknown
online store.
Abstract: Reduction of Single Input Single Output (SISO) discrete systems into lower order model, using a conventional and an evolutionary technique is presented in this paper. In the conventional technique, the mixed advantages of Modified Cauer Form (MCF) and differentiation are used. In this method the original discrete system is, first, converted into equivalent continuous system by applying bilinear transformation. The denominator of the equivalent continuous system and its reciprocal are differentiated successively, the reduced denominator of the desired order is obtained by combining the differentiated polynomials. The numerator is obtained by matching the quotients of MCF. The reduced continuous system is converted back into discrete system using inverse bilinear transformation. In the evolutionary technique method, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed to reduce the higher order model. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical example.
Abstract: Internet computer games turn to be more and more
attractive within the context of technology enhanced learning.
Educational games as quizzes and quests have gained significant
success in appealing and motivating learners to study in a different
way and provoke steadily increasing interest in new methods of
application. Board games are specific group of games where figures
are manipulated in competitive play mode with race conditions on a
surface according predefined rules. The article represents a new,
formalized model of traditional quizzes, puzzles and quests shown as
multimedia board games which facilitates the construction process of
such games. Authors provide different examples of quizzes and their
models in order to demonstrate the model is quite general and does
support not only quizzes, mazes and quests but also any set of
teaching activities. The execution process of such models is
explained and, as well, how they can be useful for creation and
delivery of adaptive e-learning courseware.
Abstract: Understanding the cell's large-scale organization is an
interesting task in computational biology. Thus, protein-protein
interactions can reveal important organization and function of the
cell. Here, we investigated the correspondence between protein
interactions and function for the yeast. We obtained the correlations
among the set of proteins. Then these correlations are clustered using
both the hierarchical and biclustering methods. The detailed analyses
of proteins in each cluster were carried out by making use of their
functional annotations. As a result, we found that some functional
classes appear together in almost all biclusters. On the other hand, in
hierarchical clustering, the dominancy of one functional class is
observed. In brief, from interaction data to function, some correlated
results are noticed about the relationship between interaction and
function which might give clues about the organization of the
proteins.
Abstract: In this paper we present an adaptive method for image
compression that is based on complexity level of the image. The
basic compressor/de-compressor structure of this method is a multilayer
perceptron artificial neural network. In adaptive approach
different Back-Propagation artificial neural networks are used as
compressor and de-compressor and this is done by dividing the
image into blocks, computing the complexity of each block and then
selecting one network for each block according to its complexity
value. Three complexity measure methods, called Entropy, Activity
and Pattern-based are used to determine the level of complexity in
image blocks and their ability in complexity estimation are evaluated
and compared. In training and evaluation, each image block is
assigned to a network based on its complexity value. Best-SNR is
another alternative in selecting compressor network for image blocks
in evolution phase which chooses one of the trained networks such
that results best SNR in compressing the input image block. In our
evaluations, best results are obtained when overlapping the blocks is
allowed and choosing the networks in compressor is based on the
Best-SNR. In this case, the results demonstrate superiority of this
method comparing with previous similar works and JPEG standard
coding.
Abstract: As days go by, we hear more and more about HIV,
Ebola, Bird Flu and other dreadful viruses which were unknown a
few decades ago. In both detecting and fighting viral diseases
ordinary methods have come across some basic and important
difficulties. Vaccination is by a sense introduction of the virus to the
immune system before the occurrence of the real case infection. It is
very successful against some viruses (e.g. Poliomyelitis), while
totally ineffective against some others (e.g. HIV or Hepatitis-C). On
the other hand, Anti-virus drugs are mostly some tools to control and
not to cure a viral disease. This could be a good motivation to try
alternative treatments. In this study, some key features of possible
physical-based alternative treatments for viral diseases are presented.
Electrification of body parts or fluids (especially blood) with micro
electric signals with adjusted current or frequency is also studied. The
main approach of this study is to find a suitable energy field, with
appropriate parameters that are able to kill or deactivate viruses. This
would be a lengthy, multi-disciplinary research which needs the
contribution of virology, physics, and signal processing experts. It
should be mentioned that all the claims made by alternative cures
researchers must be tested carefully and are not advisable at the time
being.
Abstract: The transformation of vocal characteristics aims at
modifying voice such that the intelligibility of aphonic voice is
increased or the voice characteristics of a speaker (source speaker) to
be perceived as if another speaker (target speaker) had uttered it. In
this paper, the current state-of-the-art voice characteristics
transformation methodology is reviewed. Special emphasis is placed
on voice transformation methodology and issues for improving the
transformed speech quality in intelligibility and naturalness are
discussed. In particular, it is suggested to use the modulation theory
of speech as a base for research on high quality voice transformation.
This approach allows one to separate linguistic, expressive, organic
and perspective information of speech, based on an analysis of how
they are fused when speech is produced. Therefore, this theory
provides the fundamentals not only for manipulating non-linguistic,
extra-/paralinguistic and intra-linguistic variables for voice
transformation, but also for paving the way for easily transposing the
existing voice transformation methods to emotion-related voice
quality transformation and speaking style transformation. From the
perspectives of human speech production and perception, the popular
voice transformation techniques are described and classified them
based on the underlying principles either from the speech production
or perception mechanisms or from both. In addition, the advantages
and limitations of voice transformation techniques and the
experimental manipulation of vocal cues are discussed through
examples from past and present research. Finally, a conclusion and
road map are pointed out for more natural voice transformation
algorithms in the future.