Abstract: An empirical correlation for predicting the heat transfer coefficient for a cylinder under free convection, inclined at any arbitrary angle with the horizontal has been developed in terms of Nusselt number, Prandtl number and Grashof number. Available experimental data was used to determine the parameters for the proposed correlation. The proposed correlation predicts the available data well within ±10%, for Prandtl number in the range 0.68-0.72 and Grashof number in the range 1.4×104–1.2×1010.
Abstract: Dielectric materials play an important role in broad applications, such as electrical and electromagnetic applications. This research studied the prediction of effective permeability of composite and nanocomposite dielectric materials based on theoretical analysis to specify the effects of embedded magnetic inclusions in enhancing magnetic properties of dielectrics. Effective permeability of Plastics and Glass nanodielectrics have been predicted with adding various types and percentages of magnetic nano-particles (Fe, Ni-Cu, Ni-Fe, MgZn_Ferrite, NiZn_Ferrite) for formulating new nanodielectric magnetic industrial materials. Soft nanoparticles powders that have been used in new nanodielectrics often possess the structure of a particle size in the range of micrometer- to nano-sized grains and magnetic isotropy, e.g., a random distribution of magnetic easy axes of the nanograins. It has been succeeded for enhancing characteristics of new nanodielectric magnetic industrial materials. The results have shown a significant effect of inclusions distribution on the effective permeability of nanodielectric magnetic composites, and so, explained the effect of magnetic inclusions types and their concentration on the effective permeability of nanodielectric magnetic materials.
Abstract: Recently, increased attention has been devoted to the voltage instability phenomenon in power systems. Many techniques have been proposed in the literature for evaluating and predicting voltage stability using steady state analysis methods. In this paper P-V and Q-V curves have been generated for a 57 bus Patiala Rajpura circle of India. The power-flow program is developed in MATLAB using Newton Raphson method. Using Q-V curves the weakest bus of the power system and the maximum reactive power change permissible on that bus is calculated. STATCOMs are placed on the weakest bus to improve the voltage and hence voltage stability and also the power transmission capability of the line.
Abstract: Thyristor based firing angle controlled voltage regulators are extensively used for speed control of single phase induction motors. This leads to power saving but the applied voltage and current waveforms become non-sinusoidal. These non-sinusoidal waveforms increase voltage and thermal stresses which result into accelerated insulation aging, thus reducing the motor life. Life models that allow predicting the capability of insulation under such multi-stress situations tend to be very complex and somewhat impractical. This paper presents the fuzzy logic application to investigate the synergic effect of voltage and thermal stresses on intrinsic aging of induction motor insulation. A fuzzy expert system is developed to estimate the life of induction motor insulation under multiple stresses. Three insulation degradation parameters, viz. peak modification factor, wave shape modification factor and thermal loss are experimentally obtained for different firing angles. Fuzzy expert system consists of fuzzyfication of the insulation degradation parameters, algorithms based on inverse power law to estimate the life and defuzzyficaton process to output the life. An electro-thermal life model is developed from the results of fuzzy expert system. This fuzzy logic based electro-thermal life model can be used for life estimation of induction motors operated with non-sinusoidal voltage and current waveforms.
Abstract: In this paper we report the quantitative structure activity relationship of novel bis-triazole derivatives for predicting the activity profile. The full model encompassed a dataset of 46 Bis- triazoles. Tripos Sybyl X 2.0 program was used to conduct CoMSIA QSAR modeling. The Partial Least-Squares (PLS) analysis method was used to conduct statistical analysis and to derive a QSAR model based on the field values of CoMSIA descriptor. The compounds were divided into test and training set. The compounds were evaluated by various CoMSIA parameters to predict the best QSAR model. An optimum numbers of components were first determined separately by cross-validation regression for CoMSIA model, which were then applied in the final analysis. A series of parameters were used for the study and the best fit model was obtained using donor, partition coefficient and steric parameters. The CoMSIA models demonstrated good statistical results with regression coefficient (r2) and the cross-validated coefficient (q2) of 0.575 and 0.830 respectively. The standard error for the predicted model was 0.16322. In the CoMSIA model, the steric descriptors make a marginally larger contribution than the electrostatic descriptors. The finding that the steric descriptor is the largest contributor for the CoMSIA QSAR models is consistent with the observation that more than half of the binding site area is occupied by steric regions.
Abstract: Transient storage zones along the flow paths of rivers have great influence on the dispersion of pollutants that are either accidentally or otherwise led into them. The speed with which these pollution clouds get transported and dispersed downstream is, to a large extent, explained by the longitudinal dispersion coefficients in the free-flowing zones of rivers (Kf). In the present work, a new empirical expression for Kf has been derived employing genetic programming (GP) on published dispersion data. The proposed expression uses few hydraulic and geometric characteristics of a river that are readily available to field engineers. Based on various performance indices, the proposed expression is found superior to other existing expression for Kf.
Abstract: The fracture performance of steel wires for civil engineering applications remains a major concern in civil engineering construction and maintenance of wire reinforced structures. The need to employ approaches that simulate micromechanical material processes which characterizes fracture in civil structures has been emphasized recently in the literature. However, choosing from the numerous micromechanics-based fracture models, and identifying their applicability and reliability remains an issue that still needs to be addressed in a greater depth. Laboratory tensile testing and finite element tensile testing simulations with the shear, ductile and Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman’s micromechanics-based models conducted in this work reveal that the shear fracture model is an appropriate fracture model to predict the fracture performance of steel wires used for civil engineering applications. The need to consider the capability of the micromechanics-based fracture model to predict the “cup and cone” fracture exhibited by the wire in choosing the appropriate fracture model is demonstrated.
Abstract: Ultimate shear resistance (USR) of slender plate girders can be predicted theoretically using Cardiff theory or Höglund theory. This paper will be concerned with predicting the USR using Höglund theory and EC3. Two main factors can affect the USR, the panel width “b” and the web depth “d”, consequently, the panel aspect ratio (b/d) has to be identified by limits. In most of the previous study, there is no limit for panel aspect ratio indicated. In this paper theoretical analysis has been conducted to study the effect of (b/d) on the USR. The analysis based on ninety six test results of steel plate girders subjected to shear executed and collected by others. New formula proposed to predict the percentage of the distance between the plastic hinges form in the flanges “c” to panel width “b”. Conservative limits of (c/b) have been suggested to get a consistent value of USR.
Abstract: This paper presents a strategy to predict the lifetime of rails subjected to large rolling contact loads that induce ratchetting strains in the rail head. A critical element concept is used to calculate the number of loading cycles needed for crack initiation to occur in the rail head surface. In this technique the finite element method (FEM) is used to determine the maximum equivalent ratchetting strain per load cycle, which is calculated by combining longitudinal and shear stains in the critical element. This technique builds on a previously developed critical plane concept that has been used to calculate the number of cycles to crack initiation in rolling contact fatigue under ratchetting failure conditions. The critical element concept simplifies the analytical difficulties of critical plane analysis. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used to identify the critical element in the mesh, and then the strain values of the critical element are used to calculate the ratchetting rate analytically. Finally, a ratchetting criterion is used to calculate the number of cycles to crack initiation from the ratchetting rate calculated.
Abstract: The mixture between two fluids of different salinity has been proven to capable of producing electricity in an ocean salinity energy conversion system known as hydrocratic generator. The system relies on the difference between the salinity of the incoming fresh water and the surrounding sea water in the generator. In this investigation, additional parameter is introduced which is the temperature difference between the two fluids; hence the system is known as Ocean Salinity and Temperature Energy Conversion System (OSTEC). The investigation is divided into two papers. This first paper of Part 1 presents the theoretical formulation by considering the effect of fluid dynamic viscosity known as Viscosity Model and later compares with the conventional formulation which is Density Model. The dynamic viscosity model is used to predict the dynamic of the fluids in the system which in turns gives the analytical formulation of the potential power output that can be harvested.
Abstract: Modern management in most fields is performance based; both planning and implementation of maintenance and operational activities are driven by appropriately defined performance indicators. Continuous real-time data collection for management is becoming feasible due to technological advancements. Outdated and insufficient input data may result in incorrect decisions. When using deterministic models the uncertainty of the object state is not visible thus applying the deterministic models are more likely to give false diagnosis. Constructing structured probabilistic models of the performance indicators taking into consideration the surrounding indicator environment enables to estimate the trustworthiness of the indicator values. It also assists to fill gaps in data to improve the quality of the performance analysis and management decisions. In this paper authors discuss the application of probabilistic graphical models in the road performance measurement and propose a high-level conceptual model that enables analyzing and predicting more precisely future pavement deterioration based on road utilization.
Abstract: The new institutional Economics helps generalization
and expansion of new classic by adding the institution theories to
Economic. It is clear that the appropriate institution is among the
factors that lead to success in Economic programs.
If the institutional are appropriate, the society will save the source
and when we make use of time to apply the program, there will be
welfare and average revenue product will also increase. In Economy,
one should not expect the real manifestation of Economic programs
only with a model for estimating and predicting rather institutions of
the same purpose and along with production are needed to form the
process of growth and development costs.
In this research, the institution role in transaction costs, financial
markets, distribution of revenue and capital and its influence on the
process of growth and development are investigated so that
handicaps and problems of Iran Economic Institutions can be
recognized. In other words, incapability, non productivity and
ambiguity of the institution in Iran Economic are some of the factors
that handicap Economic growth and development. For example, Iran
government as an important institution while having 20 ministries,83
organizations and 60 years of programming could not go along the
growth and development but why?
Abstract: Optimization of a microwave-assisted extraction of cherry laurel (Prunus laurocerasus) fruit using methanol was studied. The influence of process parameters (microwave power, plant material-to-solvent ratio and the extraction time) on the extraction efficiency were optimized by using response surface methodology. The predicted maximum yield of extractive substances (41.85 g/100 g fresh plant material) was obtained at microwave power of 600 W and plant material to solvent ratio of 0.2 g/cm3 after 26 minutes of extraction, while a mean value of 40.80±0.41 g/100 g fresh plant material was obtained from laboratory experiments. This proves applicability of the model in predicting optimal extraction conditions with minimal laborious and time consuming. The results indicated that all process parameters were effective on the extraction efficiency, while the most important factor was extraction time. In order to rationalize production the optimal economical condition which gave a large total extract yield with minimal energy and solvent consumption was found.
Abstract: A new approach to predict the 3D structures of proteins by combining the knowledge-based method and Molecular Dynamics Simulation is presented on the chicken villin headpiece subdomain (HP-36). Comparative modeling is employed as the knowledge-based method to predict the core region (Ala9-Asn28) of the protein while the remaining residues are built as extended regions (Met1-Lys8; Leu29-Phe36) which then further refined using Molecular Dynamics Simulation for 120 ns. Since the core region is built based on a high sequence identity to the template (65%) resulting in RMSD of 1.39 Å from the native, it is believed that this well-developed core region can act as a 'nucleation center' for subsequent rapid downhill folding. Results also demonstrate that the formation of the non-native contact which tends to hamper folding rate can be avoided. The best 3D model that exhibits most of the native characteristics is identified using clustering method which then further ranked based on the conformational free energies. It is found that the backbone RMSD of the best model compared to the NMR-MDavg is 1.01 Å and 3.53 Å, for the core region and the complete protein, respectively. In addition to this, the conformational free energy of the best model is lower by 5.85 kcal/mol as compared to the NMR-MDavg. This structure prediction protocol is shown to be effective in predicting the 3D structure of small globular protein with a considerable accuracy in much shorter time compared to the conventional Molecular Dynamics simulation alone.
Abstract: In this study, an inland metropolitan area, Gwangju, in Korea was selected to assess the amplification potential of earthquake motion and provide the information for regional seismic countermeasure. A geographic information system-based expert system was implemented for reliably predicting the spatial geotechnical layers in the entire region of interesting by building a geo-knowledge database. Particularly, the database consists of the existing boring data gathered from the prior geotechnical projects and the surface geo-knowledge data acquired from the site visit. For practical application of the geo-knowledge database to estimate the earthquake hazard potential related to site amplification effects at the study area, seismic zoning maps on geotechnical parameters, such as the bedrock depth and the site period, were created within GIS framework. In addition, seismic zonation of site classification was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design at any site in the study area. KeywordsEarthquake hazard, geo-knowledge, geographic information system, seismic zonation, site period.
Abstract: Bioinformatics methods for predicting the T cell
coreceptor usage from the array of membrane protein of HIV-1 are
investigated. In this study, we aim to propose an effective prediction
method for dealing with the three-class classification problem of
CXCR4 (X4), CCR5 (R5) and CCR5/CXCR4 (R5X4). We made
efforts in investigating the coreceptor prediction problem as follows: 1)
proposing a feature set of informative physicochemical properties
which is cooperated with SVM to achieve high prediction test
accuracy of 81.48%, compared with the existing method with
accuracy of 70.00%; 2) establishing a large up-to-date data set by
increasing the size from 159 to 1225 sequences to verify the proposed
prediction method where the mean test accuracy is 88.59%, and 3)
analyzing the set of 14 informative physicochemical properties to
further understand the characteristics of HIV-1coreceptors.
Abstract: This study had two goals. First, it investigated marital
interaction variables as predictors of treatment outcome in panic
disorder with agoraphobia (PDA) in sixty-five couples with one
spouse suffering from PDA. Second, it analyzed the impact of PDA
improvement, following therapy, on marital interaction patterns of
both spouses. The partners were observed during a problem-solving
task, before and after treatment. Negative behaviors at the outset of
therapy, both in the PDA and the NPDA partners, predicted less
improvement at post-test. It also appears that improvement in some
PDA symptoms following therapy is linked to increase in the
dominant behavior of the NPDA spouse and to an improvement in
terms of his intrusiveness.
Abstract: Considering the numerous applications of the study of
the flow due to leakage in a buried pipe
in unsaturated porous media, finding a proper model to explain the
influence of the effective factors is of great importance.There are
various important factors involved in this type of flow such as: pipe
leakage size and location, burial depth, the degree of the saturation of
the surrounding porous medium, characteristics of the porous
medium, fluid type and pressure of the upstream.In this study, the
flow through unsaturated porous media due to leakage of a buried
pipe for up and down leakage location is studied experimentally and
numerically and their results are compared. Study results show that
Darcy equation together with BCM method (for calculating the
relative permeability) have suitable ability for predicting the flow due
to leakage of buried pipes in unsaturated porous media.
Abstract: This paper describes the use of artificial neural
networks (ANN) for predicting non-linear layer moduli of flexible
airfield pavements subjected to new generation aircraft (NGA)
loading, based on the deflection profiles obtained from Heavy
Weight Deflectometer (HWD) test data. The HWD test is one of the
most widely used tests for routinely assessing the structural integrity
of airport pavements in a non-destructive manner. The elastic moduli
of the individual pavement layers backcalculated from the HWD
deflection profiles are effective indicators of layer condition and are
used for estimating the pavement remaining life. HWD tests were
periodically conducted at the Federal Aviation Administration-s
(FAA-s) National Airport Pavement Test Facility (NAPTF) to
monitor the effect of Boeing 777 (B777) and Beoing 747 (B747) test
gear trafficking on the structural condition of flexible pavement
sections. In this study, a multi-layer, feed-forward network which
uses an error-backpropagation algorithm was trained to approximate
the HWD backcalculation function. The synthetic database generated
using an advanced non-linear pavement finite-element program was
used to train the ANN to overcome the limitations associated with
conventional pavement moduli backcalculation. The changes in
ANN-based backcalculated pavement moduli with trafficking were
used to compare the relative severity effects of the aircraft landing
gears on the NAPTF test pavements.
Abstract: An incentive for performance, as one subsystem of a
new performance management system, has been implemented in the
Thai public sector since 2004. This research investigates the
development of organizational justice in the incentive allocation by
comparing the roles of distributive and procedural justice on national
personnel-s attitudinal outcomes (incentive satisfaction and job
performance) between 2 periods, i.e. 2006 and 2008. The data were
collected via self-administered questionnaires completed by national
government officers and employees. They were stratified using multistage
sampling with 2,600 usable samples or 72.0% response rate in
2006, and 1,969 usable samples or 59.3% in 2008. The findings are:
(1) There is no difference in means between the two periods relating
to distributive justice, procedural justice, incentive satisfaction and
job performance. (2) Distributive justice and procedural justice
played more important roles in predicting incentive satisfaction and
job performance in 2008 than in 2006.