Electricity Consumption Prediction Model using Neuro-Fuzzy System

In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.

On Fractional (k,m)-Deleted Graphs with Constrains Conditions

Let G be a graph of order n, and let k  2 and m  0 be two integers. Let h : E(G)  [0, 1] be a function. If e∋x h(e) = k holds for each x  V (G), then we call G[Fh] a fractional k-factor of G with indicator function h where Fh = {e  E(G) : h(e) > 0}. A graph G is called a fractional (k,m)-deleted graph if there exists a fractional k-factor G[Fh] of G with indicator function h such that h(e) = 0 for any e  E(H), where H is any subgraph of G with m edges. In this paper, it is proved that G is a fractional (k,m)-deleted graph if (G)  k + m + m k+1 , n  4k2 + 2k − 6 + (4k 2 +6k−2)m−2 k−1 and max{dG(x), dG(y)}  n 2 for any vertices x and y of G with dG(x, y) = 2. Furthermore, it is shown that the result in this paper is best possible in some sense.

A 3.125Gb/s Clock and Data Recovery Circuit Using 1/4-Rate Technique

This paper describes the design and fabrication of a clock and data recovery circuit (CDR). We propose a new clock and data recovery which is based on a 1/4-rate frequency detector (QRFD). The proposed frequency detector helps reduce the VCO frequency and is thus advantageous for high speed application. The proposed frequency detector can achieve low jitter operation and extend the pull-in range without using the reference clock. The proposed CDR was implemented using a 1/4-rate bang-bang type phase detector (PD) and a ring voltage controlled oscillator (VCO). The CDR circuit has been fabricated in a standard 0.18 CMOS technology. It occupies an active area of 1 x 1 and consumes 90 mW from a single 1.8V supply.

Multiple Model and Neural based Adaptive Multi-loop PID Controller for a CSTR Process

Multi-loop (De-centralized) Proportional-Integral- Derivative (PID) controllers have been used extensively in process industries due to their simple structure for control of multivariable processes. The objective of this work is to design multiple-model adaptive multi-loop PID strategy (Multiple Model Adaptive-PID) and neural network based multi-loop PID strategy (Neural Net Adaptive-PID) for the control of multivariable system. The first method combines the output of multiple linear PID controllers, each describing process dynamics at a specific level of operation. The global output is an interpolation of the individual multi-loop PID controller outputs weighted based on the current value of the measured process variable. In the second method, neural network is used to calculate the PID controller parameters based on the scheduling variable that corresponds to major shift in the process dynamics. The proposed control schemes are simple in structure with less computational complexity. The effectiveness of the proposed control schemes have been demonstrated on the CSTR process, which exhibits dynamic non-linearity.

The First Ground Track Maintenance Manoeuvre of THEOS Spacecraft

THEOS is the first earth observation spacecraft of Thailand which was launched on the 1st October 2008 and is currently operated by GISTDA. The transfer phase has been performed by Astrium Flight Dynamics team leading to a hand over to GISTDA teams starting mid-October 2008. The THEOS spacecraft-s orbit is LEO and has the same repetitivity (14+5/26) as the SPOT spacecraft, i.e. the same altitude of 822 km but it has a different mean local solar time (LST). Ground track maintenance manoeuvres are performed to maintain the ground track within a predefined control band around the reference ground track and the band is ±40 km for THEOS spacecraft. This paper presents the first ground track maintenance manoeuvre of THEOS spacecraft and the detailed results. In addition, it also includes one and a half year of operation as seen by GISTDA operators. It finally describes the foreseenable activities for the next orbit control manoeuvre (OCM) preparation.

Performance Enhancement of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells by MgO Coating on TiO2 Electrodes

TiO2/MgO composite films were prepared by coating the magnesium acetate solution in the pores of mesoporous TiO2 films using a dip coating method. Concentrations of magnesium acetate solution were varied in a range of 1x10-4 – 1x10-1 M. The TiO2/MgO composite films were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscropy (TEM), electrochemical impedance spectroscopy(EIS) , transient voltage decay and I-V test. The TiO2 films and TiO2/MgO composite films were immersed in a 0.3 mM N719 dye solution. The Dye-sensitized solar cells with the TiO2/MgO/N719 structure showed an optimal concentration of magnesium acetate solution of 1x10-3 M resulting in the MgO film estimated thickness of 0.0963 nm and giving the maximum efficiency of 4.85%. The improved efficiency of dyesensitized solar cell was due to the magnesium oxide film as the wide band gap coating decays the electron back transfer to the triiodide electrolyte and reduce charge recombination.

Transmission Planning – a Probabilistic Load Flow Perspective

Perhaps no single issue has been cited as either the root cause and / or the greatest challenge to the restructured power system then the lack of adequate reliable transmission. Probabilistic transmission planning has become increasingly necessary and important in recent years. The transmission planning analysis carried out by the authors, spans a 10-year horizon, taking into consideration a value of 2 % load increase / year at each consumer. Taking into consideration this increased load, a probabilistic power flow was carried out, all the system components being regarded from probabilistic point of view. Several contingencies have been generated, for assessing the security of the power system. The results have been analyzed and several important conclusions were pointed. The objective is to achieve a network that works without limit violations for all (or most of) scenario realizations. The case study is represented by the IEEE 14 buses test power system.

Detecting Email Forgery using Random Forests and Naïve Bayes Classifiers

As emails communications have no consistent authentication procedure to ensure the authenticity, we present an investigation analysis approach for detecting forged emails based on Random Forests and Naïve Bays classifiers. Instead of investigating the email headers, we use the body content to extract a unique writing style for all the possible suspects. Our approach consists of four main steps: (1) The cybercrime investigator extract different effective features including structural, lexical, linguistic, and syntactic evidence from previous emails for all the possible suspects, (2) The extracted features vectors are normalized to increase the accuracy rate. (3) The normalized features are then used to train the learning engine, (4) upon receiving the anonymous email (M); we apply the feature extraction process to produce a feature vector. Finally, using the machine learning classifiers the email is assigned to one of the suspects- whose writing style closely matches M. Experimental results on real data sets show the improved performance of the proposed method and the ability of identifying the authors with a very limited number of features.

Choosing Search Algorithms in Bayesian Optimization Algorithm

The Bayesian Optimization Algorithm (BOA) is an algorithm based on the estimation of distributions. It uses techniques from modeling data by Bayesian networks to estimating the joint distribution of promising solutions. To obtain the structure of Bayesian network, different search algorithms can be used. The key point that BOA addresses is whether the constructed Bayesian network could generate new and useful solutions (strings), which could lead the algorithm in the right direction to solve the problem. Undoubtedly, this ability is a crucial factor of the efficiency of BOA. Varied search algorithms can be used in BOA, but their performances are different. For choosing better ones, certain suitable method to present their ability difference is needed. In this paper, a greedy search algorithm and a stochastic search algorithm are used in BOA to solve certain optimization problem. A method using Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence to reflect their difference is described.

A Visual Control Flow Language and Its Termination Properties

This paper presents the visual control flow support of Visual Modeling and Transformation System (VMTS), which facilitates composing complex model transformations out of simple transformation steps and executing them. The VMTS Visual Control Flow Language (VCFL) uses stereotyped activity diagrams to specify control flow structures and OCL constraints to choose between different control flow branches. This work discusses the termination properties of VCFL and provides an algorithm to support the termination analysis of VCFL transformations.

Auspicious Meaning for Community Souvenir Products

The objective of this research was to find the relationship between auspicious meaning in eastern wisdom and the interpretation as a guideline for the design and development of community souvenirs. The sample group included 400 customers in Bangkok who used to buy community souvenir products. The information was applied to design the souvenirs which were considered for the appropriateness by 5 design specialists. The data were analyzed to find frequency, percentage, and SD with the results as follows. 1) The best factor referring to the auspicious meaning is color. The application of auspicious meaning can make the value added to the product and bring the fortune to the receivers. 2) The effectiveness of the auspicious meaning integration on the design of community souvenir product was in high level. When considering in each aspect, it was found that the interpretation aspect was in high level, the congruency of the auspicious meaning and the utility of the product was in high level. The attractiveness and the good design were in very high level while the potential of the value added in the product design was in high level. The suitable application to the design of community souvenir product was in high level.

Stability of Functionally Graded Beams with Piezoelectric Layers Based on the First Order Shear Deformation Theory

Stability of functionally graded beams with piezoelectric layers subjected to axial compressive load that is simply supported at both ends is studied in this paper. The displacement field of beam is assumed based on first order shear deformation beam theory. Applying the Hamilton's principle, the governing equation is established. The influences of applied voltage, dimensionless geometrical parameter, functionally graded index and piezoelectric thickness on the critical buckling load of beam are presented. To investigate the accuracy of the present analysis, a compression study is carried out with a known data.

Climatic Change, Drought and Dust Crisis in Iran

Drought is a phenomenon caused by environmental and climatic changes. This phenomenon is affected by shortage of rainfall and temperature. Dust is one of important environmental problems caused by climate change and drought. With recent multi-year drought, many environmental crises caused by dust in Iran and Middle East. Dust in the vast areas of the provinces occurs with high frequency. By dust affecting many problems created in terms of health, social and economic. In this study, we tried to study the most important factors causing dust. In this way we have used the satellite images and meteorological data. Finally, strategies to deal with the dust will be mentioned.

Information Measures Based on Sampling Distributions

Information theory and Statistics play an important role in Biological Sciences when we use information measures for the study of diversity and equitability. In this communication, we develop the link among the three disciplines and prove that sampling distributions can be used to develop new information measures. Our study will be an interdisciplinary and will find its applications in Biological systems.

The Sizes of Large Hierarchical Long-Range Percolation Clusters

We study a long-range percolation model in the hierarchical lattice ΩN of order N where probability of connection between two nodes separated by distance k is of the form min{αβ−k, 1}, α ≥ 0 and β > 0. The parameter α is the percolation parameter, while β describes the long-range nature of the model. The ΩN is an example of so called ultrametric space, which has remarkable qualitative difference between Euclidean-type lattices. In this paper, we characterize the sizes of large clusters for this model along the line of some prior work. The proof involves a stationary embedding of ΩN into Z. The phase diagram of this long-range percolation is well understood.

Improvising Intrusion Detection for Malware Activities on Dual-Stack Network Environment

Malware is software which was invented and meant for doing harms on computers. Malware is becoming a significant threat in computer network nowadays. Malware attack is not just only involving financial lost but it can also cause fatal errors which may cost lives in some cases. As new Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) emerged, many people believe this protocol could solve most malware propagation issues due to its broader addressing scheme. As IPv6 is still new compares to native IPv4, some transition mechanisms have been introduced to promote smoother migration. Unfortunately, these transition mechanisms allow some malwares to propagate its attack from IPv4 to IPv6 network environment. In this paper, a proof of concept shall be presented in order to show that some existing IPv4 malware detection technique need to be improvised in order to detect malware attack in dual-stack network more efficiently. A testbed of dual-stack network environment has been deployed and some genuine malware have been released to observe their behaviors. The results between these different scenarios will be analyzed and discussed further in term of their behaviors and propagation methods. The results show that malware behave differently on IPv6 from the IPv4 network protocol on the dual-stack network environment. A new detection technique is called for in order to cater this problem in the near future.

Geomatics Techniques for Urban Transport Planning

The major urban centers are all facing rapid growth is most often associated with spreading urbanization, social status of the car has also changed: it has become a commodity of mass consumption. There are currently about 5 million and 260 cars in Algeria (2008), this number increases every year 200,000 new cars. These phenomena induce a demand for greater mobility and a significant need for transport infrastructure. Faced with these problems and development of the growing use of the automobile, central governments and local authorities in charge of urban transport issues are aware of the need to develop their urban transport systems but often lack opportunities. Urban Transport Plans (PDU) were born in reaction to the "culture of automobile." Their existence in the world the '80s, however, they had little success before laws on air and rational use of energy in 90 years does not alter substantially their content and make mandatory their implementation in cities of over 100,000 inhabitants (Abroad) [1]. The objective of this work is to use the tool and specifically Geomatics techniques as decision support in the organization and management of travel while taking into consideration the influence, which will then translate by National Urban Transport Plan.

Latent Topic Based Medical Data Classification

This paper discusses the classification process for medical data. In this paper, we use the data from ACM KDDCup 2008 to demonstrate our classification process based on latent topic discovery. In this data set, the target set and outliers are quite different in their nature: target set is only 0.6% size in total, while the outliers consist of 99.4% of the data set. We use this data set as an example to show how we dealt with this extremely biased data set with latent topic discovery and noise reduction techniques. Our experiment faces two major challenge: (1) extremely distributed outliers, and (2) positive samples are far smaller than negative ones. We try to propose a suitable process flow to deal with these issues and get a best AUC result of 0.98.

Experimentation on Piercing with Abrasive Waterjet

Abrasive waterjet cutting (AWJ) is a highly efficient method for cutting almost any type of material. When holes shall be cut the waterjet first needs to pierce the material.This paper presents a vast experimental analysis of piercing parameters effect on piercing time. Results from experimentation on feed rates, work piece thicknesses, abrasive flow rates, standoff distances and water pressure are also presented as well as studies on three methods for dynamic piercing. It is shown that a large amount of time and resources can be saved by choosing the piercing parameters in a correct way. The large number of experiments puts demands on the experimental setup. An automated experimental setup including piercing detection is presented to enable large series of experiments to be carried out efficiently.

Efficiency Evaluation of E-Commerce Websites

This study suggests a model of a new set of evaluation criteria that will be used to measure the efficiency of real-world E-commerce websites. Evaluation criteria include design, usability and performance for websites, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique has been used to measure the websites efficiency. An efficient Web site is defined as a site that generates the most outputs, using the smallest amount of inputs. Inputs refer to measurements representing the amount of effort required to build, maintain and perform the site. Output is amount of traffic the site generates. These outputs are measured as the average number of daily hits and the average number of daily unique visitors.