Abstract: In this article, a mathematical programming model
for choosing an optimum portfolio of investments is developed.
The investments are considered as investment projects. The
uncertainties of the real world are associated through fuzzy
concepts for coefficients of the proposed model (i. e. initial
investment costs, profits, resource requirement, and total available
budget). Model has been coded by using LINGO 11.0 solver. The
results of a full analysis of optimistic and pessimistic derivative
models are promising for selecting an optimum portfolio of
projects in presence of uncertainty.
Abstract: In this paper, stabilization of an Active Magnetic Bearing (AMB) system with varying rotor speed using Sliding Mode Control (SMC) technique is considered. The gyroscopic effect inherited in the system is proportional to rotor speed in which this nonlinearity effect causes high system instability as the rotor speed increases. Also, transformation of the AMB dynamic model into a new class of uncertain system shows that this gyroscopic effect lies in the mismatched part of the system matrix. Moreover, the current gain parameter is allowed to be varied in a known bound as an uncertainty in the input matrix. SMC design method is proposed in which the sufficient condition that guarantees the global exponential stability of the reduced-order system is represented in Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI). Then, a new chattering-free control law is established such that the system states are driven to reach the switching surface and stay on it thereafter. The performance of the controller applied to the AMB model is demonstrated through simulation works under various system conditions.
Abstract: Imitation learning is considered to be an effective way of teaching humanoid robots and action recognition is the key step to imitation learning. In this paper an online algorithm to recognize
parametric actions with object context is presented. Objects are key instruments in understanding an action when there is uncertainty.
Ambiguities arising in similar actions can be resolved with objectn context. We classify actions according to the changes they make to
the object space. Actions that produce the same state change in the object movement space are classified to belong to the same class. This allow us to define several classes of actions where members of
each class are connected with a semantic interpretation.
Abstract: Dichotomization of the outcome by a single cut-off point is an important part of various medical studies. Usually the relationship between the resulted dichotomized dependent variable and explanatory variables is analyzed with linear regression, probit regression or logistic regression. However, in many real-life situations, a certain cut-off point dividing the outcome into two groups is unknown and can be specified only approximately, i.e. surrounded by some (small) uncertainty. It means that in order to have any practical meaning the regression model must be robust to this uncertainty. In this paper, we show that neither the beta in the linear regression model, nor its significance level is robust to the small variations in the dichotomization cut-off point. As an alternative robust approach to the problem of uncertain medical categories, we propose to use the linear regression model with the fuzzy membership function as a dependent variable. This fuzzy membership function denotes to what degree the value of the underlying (continuous) outcome falls below or above the dichotomization cut-off point. In the paper, we demonstrate that the linear regression model of the fuzzy dependent variable can be insensitive against the uncertainty in the cut-off point location. In the paper we present the modeling results from the real study of low hemoglobin levels in infants. We systematically test the robustness of the binomial regression model and the linear regression model with the fuzzy dependent variable by changing the boundary for the category Anemia and show that the behavior of the latter model persists over a quite wide interval.
Abstract: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most
widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set
of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that
input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical
issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem
of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the
general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that
output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random
variables and we propose two different models defined according to a
neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated
by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the
technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in
the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the
validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique
by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on
his risk aversion degree.
Abstract: This article deals with the conceptual modeling under uncertainty. First, the division of information systems with their definition will be described, focusing on those where the construction of a conceptual model is suitable for the design of future information system database. Furthermore, the disadvantages of the traditional approach in creating a conceptual model and database design will be analyzed. A comprehensive methodology for the creation of a conceptual model based on analysis of client requirements and the selection of a suitable domain model is proposed here. This article presents the expert system used for the construction of a conceptual model and is a suitable tool for database designers to create a conceptual model.
Abstract: Supplier selection, in real situation, is affected by
several qualitative and quantitative factors and is one of the most
important activities of purchasing department. Since at the time of
evaluating suppliers against the criteria or factors, decision makers
(DMS) do not have precise, exact and complete information, supplier
selection becomes more difficult. In this case, Grey theory helps us
to deal with this problem of uncertainty. Here, we apply Technique
for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)
method to evaluate and select the best supplier by using interval
fuzzy numbers. Through this article, we compare TOPSIS with some
other approaches and afterward demonstrate that the concept of
TOPSIS is very important for ranking and selecting right supplier.
Abstract: The paper depicts air velocity values, reproduced by laser Doppler anemometer (LDA) and ultrasonic anemometer (UA), relations with calculated ones from flow rate measurements using the gas meter which calibration uncertainty is ± (0.15 – 0.30) %. Investigation had been performed in channel installed in aerodynamical facility used as a part of national standard of air velocity. Relations defined in a research let us confirm the LDA and UA for air velocity reproduction to be the most advantageous measures. The results affirm ultrasonic anemometer to be reliable and favourable instrument for measurement of mean velocity or control of velocity stability in the velocity range of 0.05 m/s – 10 (15) m/s when the LDA used. The main aim of this research is to investigate low velocity regularities, starting from 0.05 m/s, including region of turbulent, laminar and transitional air flows. Theoretical and experimental results and brief analysis of it are given in the paper. Maximum and mean velocity relations for transitional air flow having unique distribution are represented. Transitional flow having distinctive and different from laminar and turbulent flow characteristics experimentally have not yet been analysed.
Abstract: Urban water management in Australia faces increasing pressure to deal with the challenges of droughts, growing population and the climate change uncertainty. Addressing these challenges is an opportunity to incorporate the parallel goals of sustainable water management and climate change adaptation through holistic, non-technical means. This paper presents case studies from Perth and Sydney which show how despite robust adaptation plans and experience, recent efforts to 'drought proof' cities have focused on supply-side measures (i.e. desalination), rather than rethinking how water is used and managing demand. The trend towards desalination as a climate adaptation measure raises questions about the sustainability of urban water futures in Australia.
Abstract: Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSSs) are sophisticated, intelligent systems that can provide inference due to lack of information and uncertainty. In such systems, to model the uncertainty various soft computing methods such as Bayesian networks, rough sets, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, inductive logic programming and genetic algorithms and hybrid methods that formed from the combination of the few mentioned methods are used. In this study, symptom-disease relationships are presented by a framework which is modeled with a formal concept analysis and theory, as diseases, objects and attributes of symptoms. After a concept lattice is formed, Bayes theorem can be used to determine the relationships between attributes and objects. A discernibility relation that forms the base of the rough sets can be applied to attribute data sets in order to reduce attributes and decrease the complexity of computation.
Abstract: This paper presents a new optimization technique based on quantum computing principles to solve a security constrained power system economic dispatch problem (SCED). The proposed technique is a population-based algorithm, which uses some quantum computing elements in coding and evolving groups of potential solutions to reach the optimum following a partially directed random approach. The SCED problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem in a way that insures a secure-economic system operation. Real Coded Quantum-Inspired Evolution Algorithm (RQIEA) is then applied to solve the constrained optimization formulation. Simulation results of the proposed approach are compared with those reported in literature. The outcome is very encouraging and proves that RQIEA is very applicable for solving security constrained power system economic dispatch problem (SCED).
Abstract: Mathematical programming has been applied to various
problems. For many actual problems, the assumption that the parameters
involved are deterministic known data is often unjustified. In
such cases, these data contain uncertainty and are thus represented
as random variables, since they represent information about the
future. Decision-making under uncertainty involves potential risk.
Stochastic programming is a commonly used method for optimization
under uncertainty. A stochastic programming problem with recourse
is referred to as a two-stage stochastic problem. In this study, we
consider a stochastic programming problem with simple integer
recourse in which the value of the recourse variable is restricted to a
multiple of a nonnegative integer. The algorithm of a dynamic slope
scaling procedure for solving this problem is developed by using a
property of the expected recourse function. Numerical experiments
demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is quite efficient. The
stochastic programming model defined in this paper is quite useful
for a variety of design and operational problems.
Abstract: This paper examines the influence of communication
form on employee uncertainty during mergers and acquisitions
(M&As). Specifically, the author uses narrative theory to analyze
how narrative organizational communication affects the three
components of uncertainty – decreased predictive, explanatory, and
descriptive ability. It is hypothesized that employees whose
organizations use narrative M&A communication will have greater
predictive, explanatory, and descriptive abilities than employees of
organizations using non-narrative M&A communication. This paper
contributes to the stream of research examining uncertainty during
mergers and acquisitions and argues that narratives are an effective
means of managing uncertainty in the mergers and acquisitions
context.
Abstract: This paper argues that increased uncertainty, in certain
situations, may actually encourage investment. Since earlier studies
mostly base their arguments on the assumption of geometric Brownian
motion, the study extends the assumption to alternative stochastic
processes, such as mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process, and
jump amplitude process. A general approach of Monte Carlo
simulation is developed to derive optimal investment trigger for the
situation that the closed-form solution could not be readily obtained
under the assumption of alternative process. The main finding is that
the overall effect of uncertainty on investment is interpreted by the
probability of investing, and the relationship appears to be an invested
U-shaped curve between uncertainty and investment. The implication
is that uncertainty does not always discourage investment even under
several sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, high-risk projects are not
always dominated by low-risk projects because the high-risk projects
may have a positive realization effect on encouraging investment.
Abstract: Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle
products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and
fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring
modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models
incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic
variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal
order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor
inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand
capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer
demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure
that attains optimality in two steps with demand information
availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with
stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies
and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the
second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected
event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is
illustrated with a numerical example.
Abstract: There is a growing body of evidence to support the
proposition of product take back for remanufacturing particularly
within the context of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR).
Remanufacturing however presents challenges unlike that of
traditional manufacturing environments due to its high levels of
uncertainty which may further distract organizations from
considering its potential benefits. This paper presents a novel
modeling approach for evaluating the uncertainty of part failures
within the remanufacturing process and its impact on economic and
environmental performance measures. This paper presents both the
theoretical modeling approach and an example of its use in
application.
Abstract: Public sector corruption has long-term and damaging
effects that are deep and broad. Addressing corruption relies on
understanding the drivers that precipitate acts of corruption and
developing educational programs that target areas of vulnerability.
This paper provides an innovative approach to explore the nature of
corruption by drawing on the perceptions and ideas of a group of
public servants who have been part of a corruption investigation. The
paper examines these reflections through the ideas of Pierre Bourdieu
and Alfred Schutz to point to some of the steps that can lead to
corrupt activity. The paper demonstrates that phenomenological
inquiry is useful in the exploration of corruption and, as a theoretical
framework, it highlights that corruption emerges through a
combination of conflict, doubt and uncertainty. The paper calls for
anti-corruption education programs to be attentive to way in which
these conditions can influence the steps into corruption.
Abstract: The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.
Abstract: This paper focuses on creating a component model of information system under uncertainty. The paper identifies problem in current approach of component modeling and proposes fuzzy tool, which will work with vague customer requirements and propose components of the resulting component model. The proposed tool is verified on specific information system and results are shown in paper. After finding suitable sub-components of the resulting component model, the component model is visualised by tool.
Abstract: We study the spatial design of experiment and we want to select a most informative subset, having prespecified size, from a set of correlated random variables. The problem arises in many applied domains, such as meteorology, environmental statistics, and statistical geology. In these applications, observations can be collected at different locations and possibly at different times. In spatial design, when the design region and the set of interest are discrete then the covariance matrix completely describe any objective function and our goal is to choose a feasible design that minimizes the resulting uncertainty. The problem is recast as that of maximizing the determinant of the covariance matrix of the chosen subset. This problem is NP-hard. For using these designs in computer experiments, in many cases, the design space is very large and it's not possible to calculate the exact optimal solution. Heuristic optimization methods can discover efficient experiment designs in situations where traditional designs cannot be applied, exchange methods are ineffective and exact solution not possible. We developed a GA algorithm to take advantage of the exploratory power of this algorithm. The successful application of this method is demonstrated in large design space. We consider a real case of design of experiment. In our problem, design space is very large and for solving the problem, we used proposed GA algorithm.