Abstract: This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based
short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is
a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian
distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process
models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future
electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the
direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that
combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is
applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results
are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric
load forecasting.
Abstract: Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.
Abstract: Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to model a simple but often satisfactory supervised classification method. The original naive Bayes have a serious weakness, which is producing redundant predictors. In this paper, utilized regularization technique was used to obtain a computationally efficient classifier based on naive Bayes. The suggested construction, utilized L1-penalty, is capable of clearing redundant predictors, where a modification of the LARS algorithm is devised to solve this problem, making this method applicable to a wide range of data. In the experimental section, a study conducted to examine the effect of redundant and irrelevant predictors, and test the method on WSG data set for tomato yields, where there are many more predictors than data, and the urge need to predict weekly yield is the goal of this approach. Finally, the modified approach is compared with several naive Bayes variants and other classification algorithms (SVM and kNN), and is shown to be fairly good.
Abstract: Objective: This study explored the possibility of integrating Health Belief Concepts as additional predictors of intention to adopt a recommended diet-category within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Methods: The study adopted a Sequential Exploratory Mixed Methods approach. Qualitative data were generated on attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and perceptions on predetermined diet-categories including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action. Synthesis of qualitative data was done using constant comparative approach during phase 1. A survey tool developed from qualitative results was used to collect information on the same concepts across 237 legible Type 2 diabetics. Data analysis included use of Structural Equation Modeling in Analysis of Moment Structures to explore the possibility of including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action as additional intention predictors in a single nested model. Results: Two models-one nested based on the traditional TPB model {χ2=223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)} and the newly proposed Planned Behavior Health Belief Model (PBHB) {χ2 = 743.47, df = 301, p = .019; TLI = .90; CFI=.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .079(.031, .14)} passed the goodness of fit tests based on common fit indicators used. Conclusion: The newly developed PBHB Model ranked higher than the traditional TPB model with reference made to chi-square ratios (PBHB: χ2/df = 2.47; p=0.19 against TPB: χ2/df = 2.9, p=0.02). The integrated model can be used to motivate Type 2 diabetics towards healthy eating.
Abstract: Abilities are important for academic success. Yet, abilities cannot be the whole story. Styles might be one source of unexplained variation. A style is a preferred way of using ones abilities. Students are thought to be incompetent not because they are lacking in abilities, but because their styles do not match the academic course chosen. The purpose of the study was to determine the role of abilities and learning styles in prediction of academic performance and their adjustment. Participants were 272 engineering students. The tools used are Myers Briggs Type Indicator, Culture Fair Intelligence Test and Student Problem Checklist. The statistical procedures employed were t-test, correlations and stepwise regressions. The analyses of the data indicated that although abilities are better predictors of academic performance, learning styles also shown a significant relationship. The study also indicates that if students learning styles matches to their chosen academic course, they tend to show better performance and less adjustment problems.
Abstract: This is a national community based project to evaluate effectiveness of HBV vaccination program in prevention of infection. HBV markers were tested in the sera of 3600 vaccinated children. Infected children were followed up for 1 year. Prevalence of HBV infection was 0.39 % (0.28% positive for anti-HBc, 0.03% positive for HBsAg and 0.08% positive for both). One year later, 50% of positive anti-HBc children turned negative with sustained positivity for positive HBsAg cases. HBV infection was significantly higher at age above 9 years (0.6%) compared to 0.2% at age 3-9 years and 0% at younger age (P
Abstract: Various cis-regulatory module (CRM) predictors have been proposed in the last decade. Several well-established CRM predictors adopted different categories of prediction strategies, including window clustering, probabilistic modeling and phylogenetic footprinting. Appropriate integration of them has a potential to achieve high quality CRM prediction. This study analyzed four existing CRM predictors (ClusterBuster, MSCAN, CisModule and MultiModule) to seek a predictor combination that delivers a higher accuracy than individual CRM predictors. 465 CRMs across 140 Drosophila melanogaster genes from the RED fly database were used to evaluate the integrated CRM predictor proposed in this study. The results show that four predictor combinations achieved superior performance than the best individual CRM predictor.
Abstract: This study had two goals. First, it investigated marital
interaction variables as predictors of treatment outcome in panic
disorder with agoraphobia (PDA) in sixty-five couples with one
spouse suffering from PDA. Second, it analyzed the impact of PDA
improvement, following therapy, on marital interaction patterns of
both spouses. The partners were observed during a problem-solving
task, before and after treatment. Negative behaviors at the outset of
therapy, both in the PDA and the NPDA partners, predicted less
improvement at post-test. It also appears that improvement in some
PDA symptoms following therapy is linked to increase in the
dominant behavior of the NPDA spouse and to an improvement in
terms of his intrusiveness.
Abstract: This study was initiated with a three prong objective.
One, to identify the relationship between Technological
Competencies factors (Technical Capability, Firm Innovativeness
and E-Business Practices and professional service firms- business
performance. To investigate the predictors of professional service
firms business performance and finally to evaluate the predictors of
business performance according to the type of professional service
firms, a survey questionnaire was deployed to collect empirical data.
The questionnaire was distributed to the owners of the professional
small medium size enterprises services in the Accounting, Legal,
Engineering and Architecture sectors. Analysis showed that all three
Technology Competency factors have moderate effect on business
performance. In addition, the regression models indicate that
technical capability is the most highly influential that could
determine business performance, followed by e-business practices
and firm innovativeness. Subsequently, the main predictor of
business performance for all types of firms is Technical capability.
Abstract: A Matlab based software for logistic regression is developed to enhance the process of teaching quantitative topics and assist researchers with analyzing wide area of applications where categorical data is involved. The software offers an option of performing stepwise logistic regression to select the most significant predictors. The software includes a feature to detect influential observations in data, and investigates the effect of dropping or misclassifying an observation on a predictor variable. The input data may consist either as a set of individual responses (yes/no) with the predictor variables or as grouped records summarizing various categories for each unique set of predictor variables' values. Graphical displays are used to output various statistical results and to assess the goodness of fit of the logistic regression model. The software recognizes possible convergence constraints when present in data, and the user is notified accordingly.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to rank the impact of Object
Oriented(OO) metrics in fault prediction modeling using Artificial
Neural Networks(ANNs). Past studies on empirical validation of
object oriented metrics as fault predictors using ANNs have focused
on the predictive quality of neural networks versus standard
statistical techniques. In this empirical study we turn our attention to
the capability of ANNs in ranking the impact of these explanatory
metrics on fault proneness. In ANNs data analysis approach, there is
no clear method of ranking the impact of individual metrics. Five
ANN based techniques are studied which rank object oriented
metrics in predicting fault proneness of classes. These techniques are
i) overall connection weights method ii) Garson-s method iii) The
partial derivatives methods iv) The Input Perturb method v) the
classical stepwise methods. We develop and evaluate different
prediction models based on the ranking of the metrics by the
individual techniques. The models based on overall connection
weights and partial derivatives methods have been found to be most
accurate.
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to examine to what
extend classroom management efficacy, marital status, gender, and
teaching experience predict burnout among primary school teachers.
Participants of this study were 523 (345 female, 178 male) teachers
who completed inventories. The results of multiple regression
analysis indicated that three dimensions of teacher burnout
(Emotional Exhaustion, Depersonalization, Personal
Accomplishment) were affected differently from four predictor
variables. Findings indicated that for the emotional exhaustion,
classroom management efficacy, marital status and teaching
experience; for depersonalization dimension, classroom management
efficacy and marital status and finally for the personal
accomplishment dimension, classroom management efficacy, gender,
and teaching experience were significant predictors.
Abstract: Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR)
approach for discovering novel more active Calanone derivative as
anti-leukemia compound has been conducted. There are 6
experimental activities of Calanone compounds against leukemia cell
L1210 that are used as material of the research. Calculation of
theoretical predictors (independent variables) was performed by
AM1 semiempirical method. The QSAR equation is determined by
Principle Component Regression (PCR) analysis, with Log IC50 as
dependent variable and the independent variables are atomic net
charges, dipole moment (μ), and coefficient partition of noctanol/
water (Log P). Three novel Calanone derivatives that
obtained by this research have higher activity against leukemia cell
L1210 than pure Calanone.
Abstract: Meeting users- requirements is one of predictors of project success. There should be a match between the expectations of the users and the perception of key project personnel with respect to usability and functionality. The aim of this study is to make a comparison of key project personnel-s and potential users- (customer representatives) evaluations of the relative importance of usability and functionality factors in a software design project. Analytical Network Process (ANP) was used to analyze the relative importance of the factors. The results show that navigation and interaction are the most significant factors,andsatisfaction and efficiency are the least important factors for both groups. Further, it can be concluded that having similar orders and scores of usability and functionality factors for both groups shows that key project personnel have captured the expectations and requirements of potential users accurately.
Abstract: The main purpose of this study was to determine the predictors of academic achievement of student Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) teachers with different learning styles. Participants were 148 student ICT teachers from Ankara University. Participants were asked to fill out a personal information sheet, the Turkish version of Kolb-s Learning Style Inventory, Weinstein-s Learning and Study Strategies Inventory, Schommer's Epistemological Beliefs Questionnaire, and Eysenck-s Personality Questionnaire. Stepwise regression analyses showed that the statistically significant predictors of the academic achievement of the accommodators were attitudes and high school GPAs; of the divergers was anxiety; of the convergers were gender, epistemological beliefs, and motivation; and of the assimilators were gender, personality, and test strategies. Implications for ICT teaching-learning processes and teacher education are discussed.
Abstract: Human immunodeficiency virus infection and
acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is a global pandemic with
cases reporting from virtually every country and continues to be a
common infection in developing country like India.
Microalbuminuria is a manifestation of human immunodeficiency
virus associated nephropathy. Therefore, microalbuminuria may be
an early marker of human immunodeficiency virus associated
nephropathy, and screening for its presence may be beneficial. A
strikingly high prevalence of microalbuminuria among human
immunodeficiency virus infected patients has been described in
various studies. Risk factors for clinically significant proteinuria
include African - American race, higher human immunodeficiency
virus ribonucleic acid level and lower CD4 lymphocyte count. The
cardiovascular risk factors of increased systolic blood pressure and
increase fasting blood sugar level are strongly associated with
microalbuminuria in human immunodeficiency virus patient. These
results suggest that microalbuminuria may be a sign of current
endothelial dysfunction and micro-vascular disease and there is
substantial risk of future cardiovascular disease events. Positive
contributing factors include early kidney disease such as human
immunodeficiency virus associated nephropathy, a marker of end
organ damage related to co morbidities of diabetes or hypertension,
or more diffuse endothelial cells dysfunction. Nevertheless after
adjustment for non human immunodeficiency virus factors, human
immunodeficiency virus itself is a major risk factor. The presence of
human immunodeficiency virus infection is independent risk to
develop microalbuminuria in human immunodeficiency virus patient.
Cardiovascular risk factors appeared to be stronger predictors of
microalbuminuria than markers of human immunodeficiency virus
severity person with human immunodeficiency virus infection and
microalbuminuria therefore appear to potentially bear the burden of
two separate damage related to known vascular end organ damage
related to know vascular risk factors, and human immunodeficiency
virus specific processes such as the direct viral infection of kidney
cells.The higher prevalence of microalbuminuria among the human
immunodeficiency virus infected could be harbinger of future
increased risks of both kidney and cardiovascular disease. Further
study defining the prognostic significance of microalbuminuria
among human immunodeficiency virus infected persons will be
essential. Microalbuminuria seems to be a predictor of cardiovascular
disease in diabetic and non diabetic subjects, hence it can also be
used for early detection of micro vascular disease in human
immunodeficiency virus positive patients, thus can help to diagnose
the disease at the earliest.
Abstract: The appearance management behavior of tanning by gay men is examined through the lens of Impression Formation. The study proposes that body image, self-esteem, and internalized homophobia are connected and affect the motives for engaging in sun, salon, and cosmetic tanning. Motives examined were: to look masculine, to look attractive to (potential) partners, to look attractive in general, to socialize, to meet a peer standard, and for personal satisfaction. Using regression analysis to examine data of 103 gay men who engage in at least one method of tanning, results reveal that components of body image and internalized homophobia–but not self-esteem–are linked to various motives and methods of tanning. These findings support and extend the literature of Impression Formation Theory and provide practitioners in the health and healthrelated fields new avenues to pursue when dealing with diseases related to tanning.
Abstract: Emerging adulthood, between the ages of 18 and 25, as a distinct developmental stage extending from adolescence to young adulthood. The proportions composing the five-factor model are neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness, and conscientiousness. In the literature, there is any study which includes the relationship between emerging adults loneliness and personality traits. Therefore, the relationship between emerging adults loneliness and personality traits have to be investigated. This study examines the association between the Big Five personality traits, and loneliness among Turkish emerging adults. A total of 220 emerging adults completed the NEO Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI), and the The UCLA Loneliness Scale (UCLALS). Correlation analysis showed that three Big Five personality dimensions which are Neuroticism (positively), and Extraversion and Aggreableness (negatively) are moderately correlated with emerging adults loneliness. Regression analysis shows that Extraversion, Aggreableness and Neuroticism are the most important predictors of emerging adults loneliness. Results can be discussed in the context of emerging adulthood theory.
Abstract: In this paper we compare the response of linear and
nonlinear neural network-based prediction schemes in prediction of
received Signal-to-Interference Power Ratio (SIR) in Direct
Sequence Code Division Multiple Access (DS/CDMA) systems. The
nonlinear predictor is Multilayer Perceptron MLP and the linear
predictor is an Adaptive Linear (Adaline) predictor. We solve the
problem of complexity by using the Minimum Mean Squared Error
(MMSE) principle to select the optimal predictors. The optimized
Adaline predictor is compared to optimized MLP by employing
noisy Rayleigh fading signals with 1.8 GHZ carrier frequency in an
urban environment. The results show that the Adaline predictor can
estimates SIR with the same error as MLP when the user has the
velocity of 5 km/h and 60 km/h but by increasing the velocity up-to
120 km/h the mean squared error of MLP is two times more than
Adaline predictor. This makes the Adaline predictor (with lower
complexity) more suitable than MLP for closed-loop power control
where efficient and accurate identification of the time-varying
inverse dynamics of the multi path fading channel is required.
Abstract: The objective of this study was to develop and compare alternative prediction equations of lean meat proportion (LMP) of lamb carcasses. Forty (40) male lambs, 22 of Churra Galega Bragançana Portuguese local breed and 18 of Suffolk breed were used. Lambs were slaughtered, and carcasses weighed approximately 30 min later in order to obtain hot carcass weight (HCW). After cooling at 4º C for 24-h a set of seventeen carcass measurements was recorded. The left side of carcasses was dissected into muscle, subcutaneous fat, inter-muscular fat, bone, and remainder (major blood vessels, ligaments, tendons, and thick connective tissue sheets associated with muscles), and the LMP was evaluated as the dissected muscle percentage. Prediction equations of LMP were developed, and fitting quality was evaluated through the coefficient of determination of estimation (R2 e) and standard error of estimate (SEE). Models validation was performed by k-fold crossvalidation and the coefficient of determination of prediction (R2 p) and standard error of prediction (SEP) were computed. The BT2 measurement was the best single predictor and accounted for 37.8% of the LMP variation with a SEP of 2.30%. The prediction of LMP of lamb carcasses can be based simple models, using as predictors the HCW and one fat thickness measurement.