Abstract: This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based
short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is
a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian
distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process
models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future
electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the
direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that
combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is
applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results
are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric
load forecasting.
Abstract: This paper presents a nonparametric identification of
continuous-time nonlinear systems by using a Gaussian process
(GP) model. The GP prior model is trained by artificial bee colony
algorithm. The nonlinear function of the objective system is estimated
as the predictive mean function of the GP, and the confidence
measure of the estimated nonlinear function is given by the predictive
covariance of the GP. The proposed identification method is applied
to modeling of a simplified electric power system. Simulation results
are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.