Abstract: This paper presents the methodology from machine
learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision
Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine
(SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models
for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to
demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the
relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather
conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for
predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to
launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of
Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the
Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin,
Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making
Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai
Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57
features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three
main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm
(C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain.
The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the
five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.),
few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall
accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN
was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square
error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of
the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for
daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day
estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and
moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10%
of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM
models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison
of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.
Abstract: The purpose of determining impact significance is to
place value on impacts. Environmental impact assessment review is a
process that judges whether impact significance is acceptable or not in
accordance with the scientific facts regarding environmental,
ecological and socio-economical impacts described in environmental
impact statements (EIS) or environmental impact assessment reports
(EIAR). The first aim of this paper is to summarize the criteria of
significance evaluation from the past review results and accordingly
utilize fuzzy logic to incorporate these criteria into scientific facts. The
second aim is to employ data mining technique to construct an EIS or
EIAR prediction model for reviewing results which can assist
developers to prepare and revise better environmental management
plans in advance. The validity of the previous prediction model
proposed by authors in 2009 is 92.7%. The enhanced validity in this
study can attain 100.0%.
Abstract: This paper presents a vocoder to obtain high quality synthetic speech at 600 bps. To reduce the bit rate, the algorithm is based on a sinusoidally excited linear prediction model which extracts few coding parameters, and three consecutive frames are grouped into a superframe and jointly vector quantization is used to obtain high coding efficiency. The inter-frame redundancy is exploited with distinct quantization schemes for different unvoiced/voiced frame combinations in the superframe. Experimental results show that the quality of the proposed coder is better than that of 2.4kbps LPC10e and achieves approximately the same as that of 2.4kbps MELP and with high robustness.
Abstract: This paper presents a formant-tracking linear prediction
(FTLP) model for speech processing in noise. The main focus of this
work is the detection of formant trajectory based on Hidden Markov
Models (HMM), for improved formant estimation in noise. The
approach proposed in this paper provides a systematic framework for
modelling and utilization of a time- sequence of peaks which satisfies
continuity constraints on parameter; the within peaks are modelled
by the LP parameters. The formant tracking LP model estimation
is composed of three stages: (1) a pre-cleaning multi-band spectral
subtraction stage to reduce the effect of residue noise on formants
(2) estimation stage where an initial estimate of the LP model of
speech for each frame is obtained (3) a formant classification using
probability models of formants and Viterbi-decoders. The evaluation
results for the estimation of the formant tracking LP model tested
in Gaussian white noise background, demonstrate that the proposed
combination of the initial noise reduction stage with formant tracking
and LPC variable order analysis, results in a significant reduction in
errors and distortions. The performance was evaluated with noisy
natual vowels extracted from international french and English vocabulary
speech signals at SNR value of 10dB. In each case, the
estimated formants are compared to reference formants.
Abstract: Reliability is one of the most important quality attributes of software. Based on the approach of Reussner and the approach of Cheung, we proposed the reliability prediction model of component-based software architectures. Also, the value of the model is shown through the experimental evaluation on a web server system.
Abstract: A major requirement for Grid application developers is ensuring performance and scalability of their applications. Predicting the performance of an application demands understanding its specific features. This paper discusses performance modeling and prediction of multi-agent based simulation (MABS) applications on the Grid. An experiment conducted using a synthetic MABS workload explains the key features to be included in the performance model. The results obtained from the experiment show that the prediction model developed for the synthetic workload can be used as a guideline to understand to estimate the performance characteristics of real world simulation applications.
Abstract: This paper presents the possibilities of using Weibull statistical distribution in modeling the distribution of defects in ERP systems. There follows a case study, which examines helpdesk records of defects that were reported as the result of one ERP subsystem upgrade. The result of the applied modeling is in modeling the reliability of the ERP system from a user perspective with estimated parameters like expected maximum number of defects in one day or predicted minimum of defects between two upgrades. Applied measurement-based analysis framework is proved to be suitable in predicting future states of the reliability of the observed ERP subsystems.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.
Abstract: In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.
Abstract: In this paper, the requirement for Coke quality
prediction, its role in Blast furnaces, and the model output is
explained. By applying method of Artificial Neural Networking
(ANN) using back propagation (BP) algorithm, prediction model has
been developed to predict CSR. Important blast furnace functions
such as permeability, heat exchanging, melting, and reducing
capacity are mostly connected to coke quality. Coke quality is further
dependent upon coal characterization and coke making process
parameters. The ANN model developed is a useful tool for process
experts to adjust the control parameters in case of coke quality
deviations. The model also makes it possible to predict CSR for new
coal blends which are yet to be used in Coke Plant. Input data to the
model was structured into 3 modules, for tenure of past 2 years and
the incremental models thus developed assists in identifying the
group causing the deviation of CSR.
Abstract: Based on an analysis of the mechanism of degradation of optical characteristics of the ZnO-pigmented white paint by electron irradiation, a model of single molecular color centers is built. An equation that explains the relationship between the changes of variation of the ZnO-pigmented white paint-s spectrum absorptance and electron fluence is derived. The uncertain parameters in the equation can be calculated using the curve fitting by experimental data. The result indicates that the model can be applied to predict the degradation of optical characteristics of ZnO-pigmented white paint by electron radiation.
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to design a model of human vital sign prediction for decreasing prediction error by using two states mapping based time series neural network BP (back-propagation) model. Normally, lot of industries has been applying the neural network model by training them in a supervised manner with the error back-propagation algorithm for time series prediction systems. However, it still has a residual error between real value and prediction output. Therefore, we designed two states of neural network model for compensation of residual error which is possible to use in the prevention of sudden death and metabolic syndrome disease such as hypertension disease and obesity. We found that most of simulations cases were satisfied by the two states mapping based time series prediction model compared to normal BP. In particular, small sample size of times series were more accurate than the standard MLP model. We expect that this algorithm can be available to sudden death prevention and monitoring AGENT system in a ubiquitous homecare environment.
Abstract: In recent years, the underground water sources in
southern Taiwan have become salinized because of saltwater
intrusions. This study explores the adsorption characteristics of
activated carbon on salinizing inorganic salts using isothermal
adsorption experiments and provides a model analysis. The
temperature range for the isothermal adsorption experiments ranged
between 5 to 45 ℃, and the amount adsorbed varied between 28.21 to
33.87 mg/g. All experimental data of adsorption can be fitted to both
the Langmuir and the Freundlich models. The thermodynamic
parameters for per chlorate onto granular activated carbon were
calculated as -0.99 to -1.11 kcal/mol for DG°, -0.6 kcal/mol for DH°,
and 1.21 to 1.84 kcal/mol for DS°. This shows that the adsorption
process of granular activated carbon is spontaneously exothermic. The
observation of adsorption behaviors under low ionic strength, low pH
values, and low temperatures is beneficial to the adsorption removal of
perchlorate with granular activated carbon.
Abstract: This paper explains the cause of nonlinearity in floor
attenuation hither to left unexplained. The performance degradation
occurring in air interface for GSM signals is quantitatively analysed
using the concept of Radiating Columns of buildings. The signal
levels were measured using Wireless Network Optimising Drive Test
Tool (E6474A of Agilent Technologies). The measurements were
taken in reflected signal environment under usual fading conditions
on actual GSM signals radiated from base stations. A mathematical
model is derived from the measurements to predict the GSM signal
levels in different floors. It was applied on three buildings and found
that the predicted signal levels deviated from the measured levels
with in +/- 2 dB for all floors. It is more accurate than the prediction
models based on Floor Attenuation Factor. It can be used for
planning proper indoor coverage in multi storey buildings.
Abstract: Due to the environmental and price issues of current
energy crisis, scientists and technologists around the globe are
intensively searching for new environmentally less-impact form of
clean energy that will reduce the high dependency on fossil fuel.
Particularly hydrogen can be produced from biomass via thermochemical
processes including pyrolysis and gasification due to the
economic advantage and can be further enhanced through in-situ
carbon dioxide removal using calcium oxide. This work focuses on
the synthesis and development of the flowsheet for the enhanced
biomass gasification process in PETRONAS-s iCON process
simulation software. This hydrogen prediction model is conducted at
operating temperature between 600 to 1000oC at atmospheric
pressure. Effects of temperature, steam-to-biomass ratio and
adsorbent-to-biomass ratio were studied and 0.85 mol fraction of
hydrogen is predicted in the product gas. Comparisons of the results
are also made with experimental data from literature. The
preliminary economic potential of developed system is RM 12.57 x
106 which equivalent to USD 3.77 x 106 annually shows economic
viability of this process.
Abstract: In this paper, an artificial intelligent technique for
robust digital image watermarking in multiwavelet domain is
proposed. The embedding technique is based on the quantization
index modulation technique and the watermark extraction process
does not require the original image. We have developed an
optimization technique using the genetic algorithms to search for
optimal quantization steps to improve the quality of watermarked
image and robustness of the watermark. In addition, we construct a
prediction model based on image moments and back propagation
neural network to correct an attacked image geometrically before the
watermark extraction process begins. The experimental results show
that the proposed watermarking algorithm yields watermarked image
with good imperceptibility and very robust watermark against various
image processing attacks.
Abstract: The prediction of Software quality during development life cycle of software project helps the development organization to make efficient use of available resource to produce the product of highest quality. “Whether a module is faulty or not" approach can be used to predict quality of a software module. There are numbers of software quality prediction models described in the literature based upon genetic algorithms, artificial neural network and other data mining algorithms. One of the promising aspects for quality prediction is based on clustering techniques. Most quality prediction models that are based on clustering techniques make use of K-means, Mixture-of-Guassians, Self-Organizing Map, Neural Gas and fuzzy K-means algorithm for prediction. In all these techniques a predefined structure is required that is number of neurons or clusters should be known before we start clustering process. But in case of Growing Neural Gas there is no need of predetermining the quantity of neurons and the topology of the structure to be used and it starts with a minimal neurons structure that is incremented during training until it reaches a maximum number user defined limits for clusters. Hence, in this work we have used Growing Neural Gas as underlying cluster algorithm that produces the initial set of labeled cluster from training data set and thereafter this set of clusters is used to predict the quality of test data set of software modules. The best testing results shows 80% accuracy in evaluating the quality of software modules. Hence, the proposed technique can be used by programmers in evaluating the quality of modules during software development.
Abstract: A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models.