Abstract: One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is
agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most
important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is
rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in
agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR)
provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output
relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the
other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall
prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the
polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are
compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model
(MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on
MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.
Abstract: Fault-proneness of a software module is the
probability that the module contains faults. A correlation exists
between the fault-proneness of the software and the measurable
attributes of the code (i.e. the static metrics) and of the testing (i.e.
the dynamic metrics). Early detection of fault-prone software
components enables verification experts to concentrate their time and
resources on the problem areas of the software system under
development. This paper introduces Genetic Algorithm based
software fault prediction models with Object-Oriented metrics. The
contribution of this paper is that it has used Metric values of JEdit
open source software for generation of the rules for the classification
of software modules in the categories of Faulty and non faulty
modules and thereafter empirically validation is performed. The
results shows that Genetic algorithm approach can be used for
finding the fault proneness in object oriented software components.
Abstract: Purpose: To explore the use of Curvelet transform to
extract texture features of pulmonary nodules in CT image and support
vector machine to establish prediction model of small solitary
pulmonary nodules in order to promote the ratio of detection and
diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer. Methods: 2461 benign or
malignant small solitary pulmonary nodules in CT image from 129
patients were collected. Fourteen Curvelet transform textural features
were as parameters to establish support vector machine prediction
model. Results: Compared with other methods, using 252 texture
features as parameters to establish prediction model is more proper.
And the classification consistency, sensitivity and specificity for the
model are 81.5%, 93.8% and 38.0% respectively. Conclusion: Based
on texture features extracted from Curvelet transform, support vector
machine prediction model is sensitive to lung cancer, which can
promote the rate of diagnosis for early-stage lung cancer to some
extent.
Abstract: Metal matrix composites have been increasingly used
as materials for components in automotive and aerospace industries
because of their improved properties compared with non-reinforced
alloys. During machining the selection of appropriate machining
parameters to produce job for desired surface roughness is of great
concern considering the economy of manufacturing process. In this
study, a surface roughness prediction model using fuzzy logic is
developed for end milling of Al-SiCp metal matrix composite
component using carbide end mill cutter. The surface roughness is
modeled as a function of spindle speed (N), feed rate (f), depth of cut
(d) and the SiCp percentage (S). The predicted values surface
roughness is compared with experimental result. The model predicts
average percentage error as 4.56% and mean square error as 0.0729.
It is observed that surface roughness is most influenced by feed rate,
spindle speed and SiC percentage. Depth of cut has least influence.
Abstract: In the oil and gas industry, energy prediction can help
the distributor and customer to forecast the outgoing and incoming
gas through the pipeline. It will also help to eliminate any
uncertainties in gas metering for billing purposes. The objective of
this paper is to develop Neural Network Model for energy
consumption and analyze the performance model. This paper
provides a comprehensive review on published research on the
energy consumption prediction which focuses on structures and the
parameters used in developing Neural Network models. This paper is
then focused on the parameter selection of the neural network
prediction model development for energy consumption and analysis
on the result. The most reliable model that gives the most accurate
result is proposed for the prediction. The result shows that the
proposed neural network energy prediction model is able to
demonstrate an adequate performance with least Root Mean Square
Error.
Abstract: This paper presents performance analysis of the
Evolutionary Programming-Artificial Neural Network (EPANN)
based technique to optimize the architecture and training parameters
of a one-hidden layer feedforward ANN model for the prediction of
energy output from a grid connected photovoltaic system. The ANN
utilizes solar radiation and ambient temperature as its inputs while the
output is the total watt-hour energy produced from the grid-connected
PV system. EP is used to optimize the regression performance of the
ANN model by determining the optimum values for the number of
nodes in the hidden layer as well as the optimal momentum rate and
learning rate for the training. The EPANN model is tested using two
types of transfer function for the hidden layer, namely the tangent
sigmoid and logarithmic sigmoid. The best transfer function, neural
topology and learning parameters were selected based on the highest
regression performance obtained during the ANN training and testing
process. It is observed that the best transfer function configuration for
the prediction model is [logarithmic sigmoid, purely linear].
Abstract: Wireless Sensor Networks can be used to monitor the
physical phenomenon in such areas where human approach is nearly
impossible. Hence the limited power supply is the major constraint of
the WSNs due to the use of non-rechargeable batteries in sensor
nodes. A lot of researches are going on to reduce the energy
consumption of sensor nodes. Energy map can be used with
clustering, data dissemination and routing techniques to reduce the
power consumption of WSNs. Energy map can also be used to know
which part of the network is going to fail in near future. In this paper,
Energy map is constructed using the prediction based approach.
Adaptive alpha GM(1,1) model is used as the prediction model.
GM(1,1) is being used worldwide in many applications for predicting
future values of time series using some past values due to its high
computational efficiency and accuracy.
Abstract: This paper present the study carried out of accident
analysis, black spot study and to develop accident predictive models
based on the data collected at rural roadway, Federal Route 50 (F050)
Malaysia. The road accident trends and black spot ranking were
established on the F050. The development of the accident prediction
model will concentrate in Parit Raja area from KM 19 to KM 23.
Multiple non-linear regression method was used to relate the discrete
accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variable. The
dependent variable was modeled as the number of crashes namely
accident point weighting, however accident point weighting have
rarely been account in the road accident prediction Models. The result
show that, the existing number of major access points, without traffic
light, rise in speed, increasing number of Annual Average Daily
Traffic (AADT), growing number of motorcycle and motorcar and
reducing the time gap are the potential contributors of increment
accident rates on multiple rural roadway.
Abstract: This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.
Abstract: Fault-proneness of a software module is the
probability that the module contains faults. To predict faultproneness
of modules different techniques have been proposed which
includes statistical methods, machine learning techniques, neural
network techniques and clustering techniques. The aim of proposed
study is to explore whether metrics available in the early lifecycle
(i.e. requirement metrics), metrics available in the late lifecycle (i.e.
code metrics) and metrics available in the early lifecycle (i.e.
requirement metrics) combined with metrics available in the late
lifecycle (i.e. code metrics) can be used to identify fault prone
modules using Genetic Algorithm technique. This approach has been
tested with real time defect C Programming language datasets of
NASA software projects. The results show that the fusion of
requirement and code metric is the best prediction model for
detecting the faults as compared with commonly used code based
model.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes
requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work
established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a
suitable tool for developing such models. The current research
focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction
error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in
training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an
observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in
each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used
in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at
hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model,
consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters,
was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and
calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks
for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms,
up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of
processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced
average prediction error compared to previous research across all
horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or
12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12
hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively,
improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these
horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different
initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These
results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider
instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial
weights to establish preferred model parameters.
Abstract: Automotive engine air-ratio plays an important role of
emissions and fuel consumption reduction while maintains
satisfactory engine power among all of the engine control variables. In
order to effectively control the air-ratio, this paper presents a model
predictive fuzzy control algorithm based on online least-squares
support vector machines prediction model and fuzzy logic optimizer.
The proposed control algorithm was also implemented on a real car for
testing and the results are highly satisfactory. Experimental results
show that the proposed control algorithm can regulate the engine
air-ratio to the stoichiometric value, 1.0, under external disturbance
with less than 5% tolerance.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to develop models that would enable predicting student success. These models could improve allocation of students among colleges and optimize the newly introduced model of government subsidies for higher education. For the purpose of collecting data, an anonymous survey was carried out in the last year of undergraduate degree student population using random sampling method. Decision trees were created of which two have been chosen that were most successful in predicting student success based on two criteria: Grade Point Average (GPA) and time that a student needs to finish the undergraduate program (time-to-degree). Decision trees have been shown as a good method of classification student success and they could be even more improved by increasing survey sample and developing specialized decision trees for each type of college. These types of methods have a big potential for use in decision support systems.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to rank the impact of Object
Oriented(OO) metrics in fault prediction modeling using Artificial
Neural Networks(ANNs). Past studies on empirical validation of
object oriented metrics as fault predictors using ANNs have focused
on the predictive quality of neural networks versus standard
statistical techniques. In this empirical study we turn our attention to
the capability of ANNs in ranking the impact of these explanatory
metrics on fault proneness. In ANNs data analysis approach, there is
no clear method of ranking the impact of individual metrics. Five
ANN based techniques are studied which rank object oriented
metrics in predicting fault proneness of classes. These techniques are
i) overall connection weights method ii) Garson-s method iii) The
partial derivatives methods iv) The Input Perturb method v) the
classical stepwise methods. We develop and evaluate different
prediction models based on the ranking of the metrics by the
individual techniques. The models based on overall connection
weights and partial derivatives methods have been found to be most
accurate.
Abstract: An adaptive software reliability prediction model
using evolutionary connectionist approach based on Recurrent Radial
Basis Function architecture is proposed. Based on the currently
available software failure time data, Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm is
used to globally optimize the number of the k Gaussian nodes. The
corresponding optimized neural network architecture is iteratively
and dynamically reconfigured in real-time as new actual failure time
data arrives. The performance of our proposed approach has been
tested using sixteen real-time software failure data. Numerical results
show that our proposed approach is robust across different software
projects, and has a better performance with respect to next-steppredictability
compared to existing neural network model for failure
time prediction.
Abstract: Protein residue contact map is a compact
representation of secondary structure of protein. Due to the
information hold in the contact map, attentions from researchers in
related field were drawn and plenty of works have been done
throughout the past decade. Artificial intelligence approaches have
been widely adapted in related works such as neural networks,
genetic programming, and Hidden Markov model as well as support
vector machine. However, the performance of the prediction was not
generalized which probably depends on the data used to train and
generate the prediction model. This situation shown the importance
of the features or information used in affecting the prediction
performance. In this research, support vector machine was used to
predict protein residue contact map on different combination of
features in order to show and analyze the effectiveness of the
features.
Abstract: Microarray data profiles gene expression on a whole
genome scale, therefore, it provides a good way to study associations
between gene expression and occurrence or progression of cancer.
More and more researchers realized that microarray data is helpful
to predict cancer sample. However, the high dimension of gene
expressions is much larger than the sample size, which makes this
task very difficult. Therefore, how to identify the significant genes
causing cancer becomes emergency and also a hot and hard research
topic. Many feature selection algorithms have been proposed in
the past focusing on improving cancer predictive accuracy at the
expense of ignoring the correlations between the features. In this
work, a novel framework (named by SGS) is presented for stable gene
selection and efficient cancer prediction . The proposed framework
first performs clustering algorithm to find the gene groups where
genes in each group have higher correlation coefficient, and then
selects the significant genes in each group with Bayesian Lasso and
important gene groups with group Lasso, and finally builds prediction
model based on the shrinkage gene space with efficient classification
algorithm (such as, SVM, 1NN, Regression and etc.). Experiment
results on real world data show that the proposed framework often
outperforms the existing feature selection and prediction methods,
say SAM, IG and Lasso-type prediction model.
Abstract: Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the
production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a
real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be
controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model
including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and
multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear
relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The
uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime,
scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production
uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic
and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for
quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized
the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time
series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the
hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted
R-squared, which is 98.9%.
Abstract: This purpose of this paper is to develop and validate a
model to accurately predict the cell temperature of a PV module that
adapts to various mounting configurations, mounting locations, and
climates while only requiring readily available data from the module
manufacturer. Results from this model are also compared to results
from published cell temperature models. The models were used to
predict real-time performance from a PV water pumping systems in
the desert of Medenine, south of Tunisia using 60-min intervals of
measured performance data during one complete year. Statistical
analysis of the predicted results and measured data highlight possible
sources of errors and the limitations and/or adequacy of existing
models, to describe the temperature and efficiency of PV-cells and
consequently, the accuracy of performance of PV water pumping
systems prediction models.
Abstract: Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.