A Hybrid Model of ARIMA and Multiple Polynomial Regression for Uncertainties Modeling of a Serial Production Line

Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Development and Optimization of Automated Dry-Wafer Separation

In a state-of-the-art industrial production line of photovoltaic products the handling and automation processes are of particular importance and implication. While processing a fully functional crystalline solar cell an as-cut photovoltaic wafer is subject to numerous repeated handling steps. With respect to stronger requirements in productivity and decreasing rejections due to defects the mechanical stress on the thin wafers has to be reduced to a minimum as the fragility increases by decreasing wafer thicknesses. In relation to the increasing wafer fragility, researches at the Fraunhofer Institutes IPA and CSP showed a negative correlation between multiple handling processes and the wafer integrity. Recent work therefore focused on the analysis and optimization of the dry wafer stack separation process with compressed air. The achievement of a wafer sensitive process capability and a high production throughput rate is the basic motivation in this research.