Typical Day Prediction Model for Output Power and Energy Efficiency of a Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic System

A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models.


[1] Mondal, M.A.H. and Islam, A.K.M.S., (2011), "Potential and viability of gridconnected
solar PV system in Bangladesh," Renewable Energy, 36, pp. 1869-1874.
[2] Green, M. A. (2004), "Recent developments in photovoltaics, "Solar Energy, 76, pp. 3-8.
[3] Li, Y.Z., He, Lin, and Nie, R.Q., (2009), " Short-term forecast of power generation
for grid-connected photovoltaics system based on advanced Grey-Markov
Chain,"International Conference on Energy and Enviroment Technology, Taj Chandigarh,
India, pp. 275-278.
[4] Mellit, A., Kalogirou, S.A., Shaari, S. and Arab A.H., (2008), "Methodology for
prediction sequences of mean monthly clearness index and daily solar radiation data
in remote areas: Application for sizing a stand-alone PV system,"Journal of Solar
Energy Engineering, 127, 4, pp. 324-332.
[5] Al-Karaghouli, A. and Kazmerski, L.L., (2010), "Optimization and life-cycle cost
of health clinic PV system for a rural area in southern Iraq using HOMER
software,"Solar Energy, 84, pp. 710-714.
[6] Quasching, V. (2005), "Understanding renewable energy systems," Carl Hanser
Verlag GmbH and Co KG, pp. 44-66.
[7] Duffie, J.A. and Beckman, W.A.(1980), "Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes,"
New York: Johne Wiley and Sons, pp. 1-27.
[8] Notton, G., Lazarov, V. and Stoyanov, L., (2010), "Optimal sizing of a gridconnected
PV system for various PV module technologies and inclinations, inverter
efficiency characteristics and locations," Renewable Energy, 35, pp. 541-554.
[9] Merino G.G., Jones, D., and Stetson, L.E. (2000), "Performance of A Grid-
Connected Photovoltaic System Using Actural and Kriged Hourly Solar Radiation," American Society of Agricultural Engineers-Transactions of ASAE, 43, 4, pp.
[10] Rahman, M. H., Nakayama, J., Nakamura, and Yamashiro, S., (2004), "A viable
grid-connected PV-ECS system with load leveling function using a dayahead
weather forecast," International Conference on Power System Technology-
POWERCON, Singapore, pp.21-24 November, 2004.
[11] Perpinan, O. (2009), "Statistical analysis of the performance and simulation of a two-axis tracking PV system," Solar Energy, 83, pp. 2074-2085.
[12] Chow, T.T., Chan, A.L.S., Fong, K.F. and Lin Z., (2006), "Some perceptions on
typical weather year-from the observations of Hong Kong and Macau," Solar Energy
, 80, 4, pp. 459-467.
[13] Li, D.H.W., Cheung, K.L., Lam, K.L., and Chan W.W.H., (2011), "A study
of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system in Hong Kong", Applied Energy,
[14] Chow, T.T. and Chan, A.L.S., (2004), "Numerical study of desirable solar-collector
orientations for the coastal region of South China," Applied Energy , 79, pp. 249-
[15] Newland, F. J., (1989), "Study of solar radiation models for the coastal region of South China," Solar Energy , 43, 4, pp. 227-235.
[16] Aynompe, L.M., Duffy, A., McCormack, S.J., and Conlon, M. (2011), "Measured
performace of a 1.72 kW rooftop grid connected photovoltaic system,"Energy
Conversion and Management, 52, 4, pp. 816-825.
[17] Hubbert, M.K., (1956), "Nuclear energy and fossil fuels," Am. Petrol. Inst. Drilling
and Production Practice, pp. 7-25.
[18] Abrams, D. M. and Wiener, R. J. (2010), "A model of peak production in oil fields,"Americal Journal of Physics, 78, 1, pp. 24-27.