Abstract: Whilst there is growing evidence that activity across
the lifespan is beneficial for improved health, there are also many
changes involved with the aging process and subsequently the
potential for reduced indices of health. The nexus between all forms
of health, physical activity and aging is complex and has raised much
interest in recent times due to the realization that a multifaceted
approached is necessary in order to counteract a growing obesity
epidemic. By investigating age based trends within a population
adherring to competitive sport at older ages, further insight might be
gleaned to assist in understanding one of many factors influencing
this relationship. This study evaluated those sport psychological
constructs of health, physical fitness, mental health states, and social
dimension factors in sport that were associated with factors to
participate in sport and physical activity based on responses from the
2009 World Masters Games in Sydney. The sample consisted of
7846 athletes who competed at the games and who completed a 56
item sports participation survey using a 7-point Likert response (1 -
not important to 7 - very important). Questions focuses on factors
thought to promote participation, such as weight control, living
longer, improving mental health (self-esteem, mood states),
improving physical health and factors related to the athlete-s
competitive perspective. The most significant factors related to
participation with this cohort of masters athletes were the socializing
environment of sport, getting physically fit and improving
competitive personal best performances. Strategies to increase
participation in masters sport should focus on these factors as other
factors such as weight loss, improving mental health and living
longer were not identified as important determinates of sports
participation at the World Masters level.
Abstract: Identifying parameters in an epidemic model is one
of the important aspect of modeling. In this paper, we suggest a
method to identify the transmission rate by using the multistage
Adomian decomposition method. As a case study, we use the data of
the reported dengue fever cases in the city of Shah Alam, Malaysia.
The result obtained fairly represents the actual situation. However, in
the SIR model, this method serves as an alternative in parameter
identification and enables us to make necessary analysis for a smaller
interval.
Abstract: The relevance of the study of everyday life in Almaty
and Kyzylorda are associated with the emergence of the modern
trends in historiography and socializing areas of government reform.
The relevance is due to the fact that in the early twentieth century
Kyzylorda and Almaty began to develop as a city and this period has
a special place in the life of the state. An interesting aspect of the
everyday life of the inhabitants of the new city, which was built in the
era of Stalin's Five-Year Plans, can be examined through the eyes of
the Soviet people living in a specific environment, reflecting the life
of the citizens. The study of industrialization of the Soviet Union and
the attention paid to new developments in the first five years of
everyday aspects as the impact of the modernization of the 1930s was
one of the decisive factors in the lives of residents. Among these
factors, we would like to highlight the medical field, which is the
basis of all human life, specifically focusing on the state of medicine
in Alma-Ata in the first 20-30-years of the twentieth century, and
analyze the different aspects of human life, determining the quality of
medical care to the population during this period.
Abstract: An approach of design of stable of control systems with ultimately wide ranges of uncertainly disturbed parameters is offered. The method relies on using of nonlinear structurally stable functions from catastrophe theory as controllers. Theoretical part presents an analysis of designed nonlinear second-order control systems. As more important the integrators in series, canonical controllable form and Jordan forms are considered. The analysis resumes that due to added controllers systems become stable and insensitive to any disturbance of parameters. Experimental part presents MATLAB simulation of design of control systems of epidemic spread, aircrafts angular motion and submarine depth. The results of simulation confirm the efficiency of offered method of design. KeywordsCatastrophes, robust control, simulation, uncertain parameters.
Abstract: We report a computational study of the spreading
dynamics of a viral infection in a complex (scale-free) network. The
final epidemic size distribution (FESD) was found to be unimodal or
bimodal depending on the value of the basic reproductive
number R0 . The FESDs occurred on time-scales long enough for
intermediate-time epidemic size distributions (IESDs) to be important
for control measures. The usefulness of R0 for deciding on the
timeliness and intensity of control measures was found to be limited
by the multimodal nature of the IESDs and by its inability to inform
on the speed at which the infection spreads through the population. A
reduction of the transmission probability at the hubs of the scale-free
network decreased the occurrence of the larger-sized epidemic events
of the multimodal distributions. For effective epidemic control, an
early reduction in transmission at the index cell and its neighbors was
essential.
Abstract: Characteristics of ad hoc networks and even their existence depend on the nodes forming them. Thus, services and applications designed for ad hoc networks should adapt to this dynamic and distributed environment. In particular, multicast algorithms having reliability and scalability requirements should abstain from centralized approaches. We aspire to define a reliable and scalable multicast protocol for ad hoc networks. Our target is to utilize epidemic techniques for this purpose. In this paper, we present a brief survey of epidemic algorithms for reliable multicasting in ad hoc networks, and describe formulations and analytical results for simple epidemics. Then, P2P anti-entropy algorithm for content distribution and our prototype simulation model are described together with our initial results demonstrating the behavior of the algorithm.
Abstract: The incidences of dengue hemorrhagic disease (DHF)
over the long term exhibit a seasonal behavior. It has been
hypothesized that these behaviors are due to the seasonal climate
changes which in turn induce a seasonal variation in the incubation
period of the virus while it is developing the mosquito. The standard
dynamic analysis is applied for analysis the Susceptible-Exposed-
Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model which includes an annual
variation in the length of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP). The
presence of both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections is
allowed in the present model. We found that dynamic behavior of the
endemic state changes as the influence of the seasonal variation of
the EIP becomes stronger. As the influence is further increased, the
trajectory exhibits sustained oscillations when it leaves the chaotic
region.
Abstract: We consider a heterogeneously mixing SIR stochastic
epidemic process in populations described by a general graph.
Likelihood theory is developed to facilitate statistic inference for the
parameters of the model under complete observation. We show that
these estimators are asymptotically Gaussian unbiased estimates by
using a martingale central limit theorem.
Abstract: Dengue fever has become a major concern for health
authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries.
These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying
outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever
(DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main
causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper,
therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may
influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold,
firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the
relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of
explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for
explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most.
The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover,
percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum
temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and
Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The
results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from
July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of
daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly
influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their
occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be
significant only after 2 weeks.
Abstract: Phishing scheme is a new emerged security issue of
E-Commerce Crime in globalization. In this paper, the legal scaffold
of Malaysia, United States and United Kingdom are analyzed and
followed by discussion on critical issues that rose due to phishing
activities. The result revealed that inadequacy of current legal
framework is the main challenge to govern this epidemic. However,
lack of awareness among consumers, crisis on merchant-s
responsibility and lack of intrusion reports and incentive arrangement
contributes to phishing proliferating. Prevention is always better than
curb. By the end of this paper, some best practices for consumers and
corporations are suggested.
Abstract: Every 2-3 years the influenza B virus serves
epidemics. Neuraminidase (NA) is an important target for influenza
drug design. Although, oseltamivir, an oral neuraminidase drug, has
been shown good inhibitory efficiency against wild-type of influenza
B virus, the lower susceptibility to the R152K mutation has been
reported. Better understanding of oseltamivir efficiency and
resistance toward the influenza B NA wild-type and R152K mutant,
respectively, could be useful for rational drug design. Here, two
complex systems of wild-type and R152K NAs with oseltamivir
bound were studied using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations.
Based on 5-ns MD simulation, the loss of notable hydrogen bond and
decrease in per-residue decomposition energy from the mutated
residue K152 contributed to drug compared to those of R152 in wildtype
were found to be a primary source of high-level of oseltamivir
resistance due to the R152K mutation.
Abstract: This paper is concerned with an epidemic model with delay. By using the comparison theorem of the differential equation and constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional, Some sufficient conditions which guarantee the permeance and existence of a unique globally attractive positive almost periodic solution of the model are obtain. Finally, an example is employed to illustrate our result.
Abstract: We present analysis of spatial patterns of generic
disease spread simulated by a stochastic long-range correlation SIR
model, where individuals can be infected at long distance in a power
law distribution. We integrated various tools, namely perimeter,
circularity, fractal dimension, and aggregation index to characterize
and investigate spatial pattern formations. Our primary goal was to
understand for a given model of interest which tool has an advantage
over the other and to what extent. We found that perimeter and
circularity give information only for a case of strong correlation–
while the fractal dimension and aggregation index exhibit the growth
rule of pattern formation, depending on the degree of the correlation
exponent (β). The aggregation index method used as an alternative
method to describe the degree of pathogenic ratio (α). This study may
provide a useful approach to characterize and analyze the pattern
formation of epidemic spreading
Abstract: Dengue, a disease found in most tropical and
subtropical areas of the world. It has become the most common
arboviral disease of humans. This disease is caused by any of four
serotypes of dengue virus (DEN1-DEN4). In many endemic
countries, the average age of getting dengue infection is shifting
upwards, dengue in pregnancy and infancy are likely to be
encountered more frequently. The dynamics of the disease is studied
by a compartmental model involving ordinary differential equations
for the pregnant, infant human and the vector populations. The
stability of each equilibrium point is given. The epidemic dynamic is
discussed. Moreover, the numerical results are shown for difference
values of dengue antibody.
Abstract: In April 2009, a new variant of Influenza A virus
subtype H1N1 emerged in Mexico and spread all over the world. The
influenza has three subtypes in human (H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2)
Types B and C influenza tend to be associated with local or regional
epidemics. Preliminary genetic characterization of the influenza
viruses has identified them as swine influenza A (H1N1) viruses.
Nucleotide sequence analysis of the Haemagglutinin (HA) and
Neuraminidase (NA) are similar to each other and the majority of
their genes of swine influenza viruses, two genes coding for the
neuraminidase (NA) and matrix (M) proteins are similar to
corresponding genes of swine influenza. Sequence similarity between
the 2009 A (H1N1) virus and its nearest relatives indicates that its
gene segments have been circulating undetected for an extended
period. Nucleic acid sequence Maximum Likelihood (MCL) and
DNA Empirical base frequencies, Phylogenetic relationship amongst
the HA genes of H1N1 virus isolated in Genbank having high
nucleotide sequence homology.
In this paper we used 16 HA nucleotide sequences from NCBI for
computing sequence relationships similarity of swine influenza A
virus using the following method MCL the result is 28%, 36.64% for
Optimal tree with the sum of branch length, 35.62% for Interior
branch phylogeny Neighber – Join Tree, 1.85% for the overall
transition/transversion, and 8.28% for Overall mean distance.
Abstract: In recent years, several severe large-scale influenza
outbreaks happened in many countries, such as SARS in 2005 or
H1N1 in 2009. Those influenza Epidemics have greatly impacts not
only on people-s life and health, but medical systems in different
countries. Although severe diseases are more experienced, they are not
fully controlled. Governments have different policies to control the
spreads of diseases. However, those policies have both positive and
negative social or economical influence on people and society.
Therefore, it is necessary and essential to develop an appropriate
model for evaluations of policies. Consequently, a proper measure can
be implemented to confront the diseases. The main goal of this study is
to develop a SIR-based model for the further evaluations of the
candidate policies during the influenza outbreaks.
Abstract: Whilst there is growing evidence that activity
across the lifespan is beneficial for improved health, there are
also many changes involved with the aging process and
subsequently the potential for reduced indices of health. The
nexus between health, physical activity and aging is complex
and has raised much interest in recent times due to the
realization that a multifaceted approached is necessary in
order to counteract a growing obesity epidemic. By
investigating age based trends within a population adhering to
competitive sport at older ages, further insight might be
gleaned to assist in understanding one of many factors
influencing this relationship.
BMI was derived using data gathered on a total of 6,071
masters athletes (51.9% male, 48.1% female) aged 25 to 91
years ( =51.5, s =±9.7), competing at the Sydney World
Masters Games (2009). Using linear and loess regression it
was demonstrated that the usual tendency for prevalence of
higher BMI increasing with age was reversed in the sample.
This trend in reversal was repeated for both male and female
only sub-sets of the sample participants, indicating the
possibility of improved prevalence of BMI with increasing
age for both the sample as a whole and these individual subgroups.
This evidence of improved classification in one index of
health (reduced BMI) for masters athletes (when compared to
the general population) implies there are either improved
levels of this index of health with aging due to adherence to
sport or possibly the reduced BMI is advantageous and
contributes to this cohort adhering (or being attracted) to
masters sport at older ages. Demonstration of this
proportionately under-investigated World Masters Games
population having an improved relationship between BMI and
increasing age over the general population is of particular
interest in the context of the measures being taken globally to
curb an obesity epidemic.
Abstract: The most Malaria cases are occur along Thai-Mynmar border. Mathematical model for the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria in a mixed population of Thais and migrant Burmese living along the Thai-Myanmar Border is studied. The population is separated into two groups, Thai and Burmese. Each population is divided into susceptible, infected, dormant and recovered subclasses. The loss of immunity by individuals in the infected class causes them to move back into the susceptible class. The person who is infected with Plasmodium vivax and is a member of the dormant class can relapse back into the infected class. A standard dynamical method is used to analyze the behaviors of the model. Two stable equilibrium states, a disease-free state and an epidemic state, are found to be possible in each population. A disease-free equilibrium state in the Thai population occurs when there are no infected Burmese entering the community. When infected Burmese enter the Thai community, an epidemic state can occur. It is found that the disease-free state is stable when the threshold number is less than one. The epidemic state is stable when a second threshold number is greater than one. Numerical simulations are used to confirm the results of our model.