In recent years, several severe large-scale influenza
outbreaks happened in many countries, such as SARS in 2005 or
H1N1 in 2009. Those influenza Epidemics have greatly impacts not
only on people-s life and health, but medical systems in different
countries. Although severe diseases are more experienced, they are not
fully controlled. Governments have different policies to control the
spreads of diseases. However, those policies have both positive and
negative social or economical influence on people and society.
Therefore, it is necessary and essential to develop an appropriate
model for evaluations of policies. Consequently, a proper measure can
be implemented to confront the diseases. The main goal of this study is
to develop a SIR-based model for the further evaluations of the
candidate policies during the influenza outbreaks.
[1] Franciszek Rakowski, Magdalena Gruziel, .ukasz Bieniasz-Krzywiec, Jan
P. Radomski, "Influenza epidemic spread simulation for Poland - a large
scale, individual based model study", Physica A, vol. 389, pp.3149-3165,
2010.
[2] Tim Lant, Megan Jehn., Cody Christensen, Ozgur M. Araz, John W.
Fowler. "Simulating pandemic influenza preparedness plans for a public
university: a hierarchical system dynamics approach". Winter Simulation
Conference, Proceedings of the 2008 Winter, pp.1305-1313, 2008
[3] W. O. Kermack, A. G. M. , "A contribution to the Mathematical Theory of
Epidemics", Proceedings of the Royal Society, Vol. 115, pp.700-721,
1927.
[4] Ahmet Y─▒ld─▒r─▒m and Yves Cherruault, "Analytical approximate
solution of a SIR epidemic model with constant vaccination strategy by
homotopy perturbation method", Kybernetes, Vol. 38, No. 9,
pp.1566-1575, 2009
[5] B. Dybiec, "SIR model of epidemic spread with accumulated exposure",
The European Physical Journal B, Vol. 67, pp. 377-383, 2009
[6] Gul Zaman, Yong Han Kang, and Il Hyo Jung, "Optimal treatment of an
SIR epidemic model with time delay", BioSystems, Vol. 98, pp.43-50,
2009.
[7] Xinzhu Meng, Lansun Chen, Bo Wu, "A delay SIR epidemic model with
pulse vaccination and incubation Times", Nonlinear Analysis: Real
World Applications, Vol. 11, pp.88-98, 2010.
[8] Xinzhu Meng, Lansun Chen, "The dynamics of a new SIR epidemic
model concerning pulse vaccination strategy", Journal of Mathematical
Analysis and Applications, Vol. 372, pp. 162-180, 2008
[9] Xia Wang, Youde Tao, Xinyu Song, "Pulse vaccination on SEIR
epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate", Applied Mathematics
and Computation, Vol. 210, pp.398- 404, 2009
[10] S. C. Chen, C. F. Chang, L. J. Jou and C. M. Liao, "Modelling vaccination
programmes against measles in Taiwan ", Epidemiology and infection,
Vol. 135, No. 5, pp.775-786, 2007
[11] Phenyo E. Lekone and Bärbel F. Finkenstädt, "Statistical Inference in a
Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model and with Control Intervention: Ebola as
a Case Study", Biometrics, Vol. 62, pp. 1170-1177,2006
[12] S.B Hsu and Y.H. Hsieh, "On the role of asymptomatic infection in
transmission dynamics of infectious diseases", Bulletin of Mathematical
Biology, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 134-155, 2008
[1] Franciszek Rakowski, Magdalena Gruziel, .ukasz Bieniasz-Krzywiec, Jan
P. Radomski, "Influenza epidemic spread simulation for Poland - a large
scale, individual based model study", Physica A, vol. 389, pp.3149-3165,
2010.
[2] Tim Lant, Megan Jehn., Cody Christensen, Ozgur M. Araz, John W.
Fowler. "Simulating pandemic influenza preparedness plans for a public
university: a hierarchical system dynamics approach". Winter Simulation
Conference, Proceedings of the 2008 Winter, pp.1305-1313, 2008
[3] W. O. Kermack, A. G. M. , "A contribution to the Mathematical Theory of
Epidemics", Proceedings of the Royal Society, Vol. 115, pp.700-721,
1927.
[4] Ahmet Y─▒ld─▒r─▒m and Yves Cherruault, "Analytical approximate
solution of a SIR epidemic model with constant vaccination strategy by
homotopy perturbation method", Kybernetes, Vol. 38, No. 9,
pp.1566-1575, 2009
[5] B. Dybiec, "SIR model of epidemic spread with accumulated exposure",
The European Physical Journal B, Vol. 67, pp. 377-383, 2009
[6] Gul Zaman, Yong Han Kang, and Il Hyo Jung, "Optimal treatment of an
SIR epidemic model with time delay", BioSystems, Vol. 98, pp.43-50,
2009.
[7] Xinzhu Meng, Lansun Chen, Bo Wu, "A delay SIR epidemic model with
pulse vaccination and incubation Times", Nonlinear Analysis: Real
World Applications, Vol. 11, pp.88-98, 2010.
[8] Xinzhu Meng, Lansun Chen, "The dynamics of a new SIR epidemic
model concerning pulse vaccination strategy", Journal of Mathematical
Analysis and Applications, Vol. 372, pp. 162-180, 2008
[9] Xia Wang, Youde Tao, Xinyu Song, "Pulse vaccination on SEIR
epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate", Applied Mathematics
and Computation, Vol. 210, pp.398- 404, 2009
[10] S. C. Chen, C. F. Chang, L. J. Jou and C. M. Liao, "Modelling vaccination
programmes against measles in Taiwan ", Epidemiology and infection,
Vol. 135, No. 5, pp.775-786, 2007
[11] Phenyo E. Lekone and Bärbel F. Finkenstädt, "Statistical Inference in a
Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model and with Control Intervention: Ebola as
a Case Study", Biometrics, Vol. 62, pp. 1170-1177,2006
[12] S.B Hsu and Y.H. Hsieh, "On the role of asymptomatic infection in
transmission dynamics of infectious diseases", Bulletin of Mathematical
Biology, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 134-155, 2008
@article{"International Journal of Engineering, Mathematical and Physical Sciences:50442", author = "Kang-Hung Yang and Jin-Yuan Hsu", title = "A New SIR-based Model for Influenza Epidemic", abstract = "In recent years, several severe large-scale influenza
outbreaks happened in many countries, such as SARS in 2005 or
H1N1 in 2009. Those influenza Epidemics have greatly impacts not
only on people-s life and health, but medical systems in different
countries. Although severe diseases are more experienced, they are not
fully controlled. Governments have different policies to control the
spreads of diseases. However, those policies have both positive and
negative social or economical influence on people and society.
Therefore, it is necessary and essential to develop an appropriate
model for evaluations of policies. Consequently, a proper measure can
be implemented to confront the diseases. The main goal of this study is
to develop a SIR-based model for the further evaluations of the
candidate policies during the influenza outbreaks.", keywords = "SIR, influenza, systems dynamic model, H1N1", volume = "6", number = "7", pages = "703-6", }