Abstract: Social media has become an important source of information for the public and the media profession. Some social issues raised on social media are picked up by journalists to report on other platforms. This relationship between social media and mainstream media can sometimes drive public debate or stimulate social movements. The question to examine is in what situations can social media conversations raise awareness and stimulate change on public issues. This study addresses the communication patterns of social media conversations driving covert issues into mainstream media and leading to social advocacy movements. In methodological terms, the study findings are based on a content analysis of Facebook, Twitter, news websites and television media reports on three different case studies – saving Bryde’s whale, protests against a government proposal to downsize the Office of Knowledge Management and Development in Thailand, and a dengue fever campaign. These case studies were chosen because they represent issues that most members of the public do not pay much attention to but social media conversations stimulated public debate and calls to action. This study found: 1) Collective social media conversations can stimulate public debate and encourage change at three levels – awareness, public debate, and action of policy and social change. The level depends on the communication patterns of online users and media coverage. 2) Patterns of communication have to be designed to combine social media conversations, online opinion leaders, mainstream media coverage and call to both online and offline action to motivate social change. Thus, this result suggests that social media is a powerful platform for collective communication and setting the agenda on public issues for mainstream media. However, for social change to succeed, social media should be used to mobilize online movements to move offline too.
Abstract: Identifying parameters in an epidemic model is one
of the important aspect of modeling. In this paper, we suggest a
method to identify the transmission rate by using the multistage
Adomian decomposition method. As a case study, we use the data of
the reported dengue fever cases in the city of Shah Alam, Malaysia.
The result obtained fairly represents the actual situation. However, in
the SIR model, this method serves as an alternative in parameter
identification and enables us to make necessary analysis for a smaller
interval.
Abstract: Mathematical models can be used to describe the
dynamics of the spread of infectious disease between susceptibles
and infectious populations. Dengue fever is a re-emerging disease in
the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Its incidence has
increased fourfold since 1970 and outbreaks are now reported quite
frequently from many parts of the world. In dengue endemic regions,
more cases of dengue infection in pregnancy and infancy are being
found due to the increasing incidence. It has been reported that
dengue infection was vertically transmitted to the infants. Primary
dengue infection is associated with mild to high fever, headache,
muscle pain and skin rash. Immune response includes IgM antibodies
produced by the 5th day of symptoms and persist for 30-60 days. IgG
antibodies appear on the 14th day and persist for life. Secondary
infections often result in high fever and in many cases with
hemorrhagic events and circulatory failure. In the present paper, a
mathematical model is proposed to simulate the succession of dengue
disease transmission in pregnancy and infancy. Stability analysis of
the equilibrium points is carried out and a simulation is given for the
different sets of parameter. Moreover, the bifurcation diagrams of our
model are discussed. The controlling of this disease in infant cases is
introduced in the term of the threshold condition.
Abstract: The effect of a time delay on the transmission on
dengue fever is studied. The time delay is due to the presence of an
incubation period for the dengue virus to develop in the mosquito
before the mosquito becomes infectious. The conditions for the
existence of a Hopf bifurcation to limit cycle behavior are
established. The conditions are different from the usual one and they
are based on whether a particular third degree polynomial has
positive real roots. A theorem for determining whether for a given
set of parameter values, a critical delay time exist is given. It is
found that for a set of realistic values of the parameters in the model,
a Hopf bifurcation can not occur. For a set of unrealistic values of
some of the parameters, it is shown that a Hopf bifurcation can occur.
Numerical solutions using this last set show the trajectory of two of
the variables making a transition from a spiraling orbit to a limit
cycle orbit.
Abstract: Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous
cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education
on the prevention of the desease through various means has been
carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate
Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other
means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak
period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors
contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation
model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a
simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue
outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was
developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are
rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph
showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these
two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model
will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its
accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue
outbreak.
Abstract: Dengue fever has become a major concern for health
authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries.
These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying
outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever
(DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main
causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper,
therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may
influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold,
firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the
relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of
explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for
explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most.
The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover,
percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum
temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and
Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The
results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from
July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of
daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly
influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their
occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be
significant only after 2 weeks.
Abstract: A climate dependent model is proposed to simulate
the population of Aedes aegypti mosquito. In developing the model,
average temperature of Shah Alam, Malaysia was used to determine
the development rate of each stage of the life cycle of mosquito.
Rainfall dependent function was proposed to simulate the hatching
rate of the eggs under several assumptions. The proposed transition
matrix was obtained and used to simulate the population of eggs,
larvae, pupae and adults mosquito. It was found that the peak of
mosquito abundance comes during a relatively dry period following a
heavy rainfall. In addition, lag time between the peaks of mosquito
abundance and dengue fever cases in Shah Alam was estimated.
Abstract: Dengue fever is an important human arboviral disease. Outbreaks are now reported quite often from many parts of the world. The number of cases involving pregnant women and infant cases are increasing every year. The illness is often severe and complications may occur. Deaths often occur because of the difficulties in early diagnosis and in the improper management of the diseases. Dengue antibodies from pregnant women are passed on to infants and this protects the infants from dengue infections. Antibodies from the mother are transferred to the fetus when it is still in the womb. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model to describe the transmission of this disease in pregnant women. The model is formulated by dividing the human population into pregnant women and non-pregnant human (men and non-pregnant women). Each class is subdivided into susceptible (S), infectious (I) and recovered (R) subclasses. We apply standard dynamical analysis to our model. Conditions for the local stability of the equilibrium points are given. The numerical simulations are shown. The bifurcation diagrams of our model are discussed. The control of this disease in pregnant women is discussed in terms of the threshold conditions.