Simulation Model for Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreak
Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous
cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education
on the prevention of the desease through various means has been
carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate
Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other
means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak
period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors
contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation
model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a
simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue
outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was
developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are
rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph
showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these
two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model
will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its
accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue
outbreak.
[1] O. Aburas, H. M. Aburas Index: A statistically developed index for
dengue transmitting vector population prediction. Proceedings of
World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 23, 151-
154(2007).
[2] Gubler, D.J. "How Effectivelly is Epidemiological Surveillance used for
Dengue Programme Planning and Epidemic Response?." Dengue
Bulletin, Volume 26 (2002).
[3] Gubler, D.J. "Dengue and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever." Clin Microbiol
Rev, 113: 480-496 (1998).
[4] McConnell K.J. Gubler, D.J. (2003). "Guidelines of the Cost-
Effectiveness of Larval Control Programs to Reduce Dengue
Transmission in Puerto Rico." Rev Panam Salud Publica. 14:1(2003).
[5] WHO (World Health Organisation). Key issues in dengue vector control
towards the operationlization of global strategy report of consultation.
Geneva: WHO-CDC/FIL 2010.2.(2010)
[1] O. Aburas, H. M. Aburas Index: A statistically developed index for
dengue transmitting vector population prediction. Proceedings of
World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 23, 151-
154(2007).
[2] Gubler, D.J. "How Effectivelly is Epidemiological Surveillance used for
Dengue Programme Planning and Epidemic Response?." Dengue
Bulletin, Volume 26 (2002).
[3] Gubler, D.J. "Dengue and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever." Clin Microbiol
Rev, 113: 480-496 (1998).
[4] McConnell K.J. Gubler, D.J. (2003). "Guidelines of the Cost-
Effectiveness of Larval Control Programs to Reduce Dengue
Transmission in Puerto Rico." Rev Panam Salud Publica. 14:1(2003).
[5] WHO (World Health Organisation). Key issues in dengue vector control
towards the operationlization of global strategy report of consultation.
Geneva: WHO-CDC/FIL 2010.2.(2010)
@article{"International Journal of Information, Control and Computer Sciences:57615", author = "Azmi Ibrahim and Nor Azan Mat Zin and Noraidah Sahari Ashaari", title = "Simulation Model for Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreak", abstract = "Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous
cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education
on the prevention of the desease through various means has been
carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate
Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other
means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak
period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors
contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation
model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a
simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue
outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was
developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are
rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph
showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these
two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model
will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its
accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue
outbreak.", keywords = "dengue fever, prediction, system dynamic, simulation", volume = "5", number = "11", pages = "1331-3", }