Spreading Dynamics of a Viral Infection in a Complex Network

We report a computational study of the spreading
dynamics of a viral infection in a complex (scale-free) network. The
final epidemic size distribution (FESD) was found to be unimodal or
bimodal depending on the value of the basic reproductive
number R0 . The FESDs occurred on time-scales long enough for
intermediate-time epidemic size distributions (IESDs) to be important
for control measures. The usefulness of R0 for deciding on the
timeliness and intensity of control measures was found to be limited
by the multimodal nature of the IESDs and by its inability to inform
on the speed at which the infection spreads through the population. A
reduction of the transmission probability at the hubs of the scale-free
network decreased the occurrence of the larger-sized epidemic events
of the multimodal distributions. For effective epidemic control, an
early reduction in transmission at the index cell and its neighbors was
essential.

• Khemanand Moheeput
• Smita S. D. Goorah
• Satish K. Ramchurn

• Basic reproductive number
• epidemic control
• scalefree network
• viral infection.

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