Abstract: This paper summarizes some of the discussions that occurred in a workshop in West Virginia, U.S.A which was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in February 2016. The goal of the workshop was to explore the opportunities and challenges for applying systems engineering in large enterprises, and some of the issues that still persist. The main topics of the discussion included challenges with elaboration and abstraction in large systems, interfacing physical and social systems, and the need for axiomatic frameworks for large enterprises. We summarize these main points of discussion drawing parallels with decision making in organizations to instigate research in these discussion areas.
Abstract: This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.
Abstract: Decision making for sustainable manufacturing design and management requires critical considerations due to the complexity and partly conflicting issues of economic, social and environmental factors. Although there are tools capable of assessing the combination of one or two of the sustainability factors, the frameworks have not adequately integrated all the three factors. Case study and review of existing simulation applications also shows the approach lacks integration of the sustainability factors. In this paper we discussed the development of a simulation based framework for support of a holistic assessment of sustainable manufacturing design and management. To achieve this, a strategic approach is introduced to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing decision supporting tools. Investigation reveals that Discrete Event Simulation (DES) can serve as a rock base for other Life Cycle Analysis frameworks. Simio-DES application optimizes systems for both economic and competitive advantage, Granta CES EduPack and SimaPro collate data for Material Flow Analysis and environmental Life Cycle Assessment, while social and stakeholders’ analysis is supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method. Such a common and integrated framework creates a platform for companies to build a computer simulation model of a real system and assess the impact of alternative solutions before implementing a chosen solution.
Abstract: This paper discusses the intake of combining multi-criteria
decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems, to generate
an integrated analysis process dealing with complex multi-criteria
decision-making situations. In this context, a multi-agent modeling is
presented for decision support systems by combining multi-criteria
decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems. The proposed
modeling which consists in performing the multi-agent system
(MAS) architecture, procedure and protocol of the negotiation model
is elaborated as a decision support tool for complex decision-making
environments. Our objective is to take advantage from the multi-agent
system which distributes resources and computational
capabilities across interconnected agents, and provide a problem
modeling in terms of autonomous interacting component-agents.
Thus, the identification and evaluation of criteria as well as the
evaluation and ranking of alternatives in a decision support situation
will be performed by organizing tasks and user preferences between
different agents in order to reach the right decision. At the end, an
illustrative example is conducted to demonstrate the function and
effectiveness of our MAS modeling.
Abstract: Group decision making with multiple attribute has
attracted intensive concern in the decision analysis area. This paper
assumes that the contributions of all the decision makers (DMs) are not
equal to the decision process based on different knowledge and
experience in group setting. The aim of this paper is to develop a novel
approach to determine weights of DMs in the group decision making
problems. In this paper, the weights of DMs are determined in the
group decision environment via angle cosine and projection method.
First of all, the average decision of all individual decisions is defined
as the ideal decision. After that, we define the weight of each decision
maker (DM) by aggregating the angle cosine and projection between
individual decision and ideal decision with associated direction
indicator μ. By using the weights of DMs, all individual decisions are
aggregated into a collective decision. Further, the preference order of
alternatives is ranked in accordance with the overall row value of
collective decision. Finally, an example in a chemical company is
provided to illustrate the developed approach.
Abstract: The Analytic Hierarchy Process is frequently used
approach for solving decision making problems. There exists wide
range of software programs utilizing that approach. Their main
disadvantage is that they are relatively expensive and missing
intermediate calculations. This work introduces a Microsoft Excel
add-in called DAME – Decision Analysis Module for Excel.
Comparing to other computer programs DAME is free, can work
with scenarios or multiple decision makers and displays intermediate
calculations. Users can structure their decision models into three
levels – scenarios/users, criteria and variants. Items on all levels can
be evaluated either by weights or pair-wise comparisons. There are
provided three different methods for the evaluation of the weights of
criteria, the variants as well as the scenarios – Saaty’s Method,
Geometric Mean Method and Fuller’s Triangle Method.
Multiplicative and additive syntheses are supported. The proposed
software package is demonstrated on couple of illustrating examples
of real life decision problems.
Abstract: In this paper, a new method for multi criteria decision making is represented whichspecifies a trajectory satisfying desired criteria including minimization of time. A rescue robot is defined to perform certain tasks before the arrival of rescue team, including evaluation of the probability of explosion in the area, detecting human-beings, and providing preliminary aidsin case of identifying signs of life, so that the security of the surroundings will have enhanced significantly for the individuals inside the disaster zone as well as the rescue team. The main idea behind our technique is using the Program Evaluation and Review Technique analysis along with Critical Path Method and use the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method to decidewhich set of activities must be performed first. Since the disastrous event in one area may be well contagious to others, it is one of the robot's priorities to evaluate the relative adversity of the situation, using the above methods and prioritize its mission.
Abstract: Environmental decision making, particularly about
hazardous waste management, is inherently exposed to a high
potential conflict, principally because of the trade-off between sociopolitical,
environmental, health and economic factors. The need to
plan complex contexts has led to an increasing request for decision
analytic techniques as support for the decision process. In this work,
alternative systems of asbestos-containing waste management
(ACW) in Puglia (Southern Italy) were explored by a multi-criteria
decision analysis. In particular, through Analytic Hierarchy Process
five alternatives management have been compared and ranked
according to their performance and efficiency, taking into account
environmental, health and socio-economic aspects. A separated
valuation has been performed for different temporal scale. For short
period results showed a narrow deviation between the disposal
alternatives “mono-material landfill in public quarry" and “dedicate
cells in existing landfill", with the best performance of the first one.
While for long period “treatment plant to eliminate hazard from
asbestos-containing waste" was prevalent, although high energy
demand required to achieve the change of crystalline structure. A
comparison with results from a participative approach in valuation
process might be considered as future development of method
application to ACW management.
Abstract: One of the most important issues in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is to determine the weights of criteria so that all alternatives can be compared based on the collective performance of criteria. In this paper, one of popular methods in data envelopment analysis (DEA) known as common weights (CWs) is used to determine the weights in MCDA. Two frontiers named ideal and anti-ideal frontiers, instead of ideal and anti-ideal alternatives, are defined based on two new proposed CWs models. Ideal and antiideal frontiers are more flexible than that of alternatives. According to the optimal solutions of these two models, the distances of an alternative from the ideal and anti-ideal frontiers are derived. Then, a relative distance is introduced to measure the value of each alternative. The suggested models are linear and despite weight restrictions are feasible. An example is presented for explaining the method and for comparing to the existing literature.
Abstract: Home is important for Chinese people. Because the
information regarding the house attributes and surrounding
environments is incomplete in most real estate agency, most house
buyers are difficult to consider the overall factors effectively and only
can search candidates by sorting-based approach. This study aims to
develop a decision support system for housing purchasing, in which
surrounding facilities of each house are quantified. Then, all
considered house factors and customer preferences are incorporated
into Simple Multi-Attribute Ranking Technique (SMART) to support
the housing evaluation. To evaluate the validity of proposed approach,
an empirical study was conducted from a real estate agency. Based on
the customer requirement and preferences, the proposed approach can
identify better candidate house with consider the overall house
attributes and surrounding facilities.
Abstract: Within the realm of e-government, the development has moved towards testing new means for democratic decisionmaking, like e-panels, electronic discussion forums, and polls. Although such new developments seem promising, they are not problem-free, and the outcomes are seldom used in the subsequent formal political procedures. Nevertheless, process models offer promising potential when it comes to structuring and supporting transparency of decision processes in order to facilitate the integration of the public into decision-making procedures in a reasonable and manageable way. Based on real-life cases of urban planning processes in Sweden, we present an outline for an integrated framework for public decision making to: a) provide tools for citizens to organize discussion and create opinions; b) enable governments, authorities, and institutions to better analyse these opinions; and c) enable governments to account for this information in planning and societal decision making by employing a process model for structured public decision making.
Abstract: In this paper a new approach to prioritize urban planning projects in an efficient and reliable way is presented. It is based on environmental pressure indices and multicriteria decision methods. The paper introduces a rigorous method with acceptable complexity of rank ordering urban development proposals according to their environmental pressure. The technique combines the use of Environmental Pressure Indicators, the aggregation of indicators in an Environmental Pressure Index by means of the Analytic Network Process method and interpreting the information obtained from the experts during the decision-making process. The ANP method allows the aggregation of the experts- judgments on each of the indicators into one Environmental Pressure Index. In addition, ANP is based on utility ratio functions which are the most appropriate for the analysis of uncertain data, like experts- estimations. Finally, unlike the other multicriteria techniques, ANP allows the decision problem to be modelled using the relationships among dependent criteria. The method has been applied to the proposal for urban development of La Carlota airport in Caracas (Venezuela). The Venezuelan Government would like to see a recreational project develop on the abandoned area and mean a significant improvement for the capital. There are currently three options on their table which are currently under evaluation. They include a Health Club, a Residential area and a Theme Park. The participating experts coincided in the appreciation that the method proposed in this paper is useful and an improvement from traditional techniques such as environmental impact studies, lifecycle analysis, etc. They find the results obtained coherent, the process seems sufficiently rigorous and precise, and the use of resources is significantly less than in other methods.
Abstract: In this paper the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is
applied to the selection of photovoltaic (PV) solar power projects.
These projects follow a long management and execution process
from plant site selection to plant start-up. As a consequence, there are
many risks of time delays and even of project stoppage.
In the case study presented in this paper a top manager of an
important Spanish company that operates in the power market has to
decide on the best PV project (from four alternative projects) to
invest based on risk minimization. The manager identified 50 project
execution delay and/or stoppage risks.
The influences among elements of the network (groups of risks
and alternatives) were identified and analyzed using the ANP
multicriteria decision analysis method. After analyzing the results the
main conclusion is that the network model can manage all the
information of the real-world problem and thus it is a decision
analysis model recommended by the authors. The strengths and
weaknesses ANP as a multicriteria decision analysis tool are also
described in the paper.
Abstract: Decision support based upon risk analysis into
comparison of the electricity generation from different renewable
energy technologies can provide information about their effects on
the environment and society. The aim of this paper is to develop the
assessment framework regarding risks to health and environment,
and the society-s benefits of the electric power plant generation from
different renewable sources. The multicriteria framework to
multiattribute risk analysis technique and the decision analysis
interview technique are applied in order to support the decisionmaking
process for the implementing renewable energy projects to
the Bangkok case study. Having analyses the local conditions and
appropriate technologies, five renewable power plants are postulated
as options. As this work demonstrates, the analysis can provide a tool
to aid decision-makers for achieving targets related to promote
sustainable energy system.
Abstract: Decisions are regularly made during a project or
daily life. Some decisions are critical and have a direct impact on
project or human success. Formal evaluation is thus required,
especially for crucial decisions, to arrive at the optimal solution
among alternatives to address issues. According to microeconomic
theory, all people-s decisions can be modeled as indifference curves.
The proposed approach supports formal analysis and decision by
constructing indifference curve model from the previous experts-
decision criteria. These knowledge embedded in the system can be
reused or help naïve users select alternative solution of the similar
problem. Moreover, the method is flexible to cope with unlimited
number of factors influencing the decision-making. The preliminary
experimental results of the alternative selection are accurately
matched with the expert-s decisions.
Abstract: Multi criteria decision analysis (MDCA) covers both
data and experience. It is very common to solve the problems with
many parameters and uncertainties. GIS supported solutions improve
and speed up the decision process. Weighted grading as a MDCA
method is employed for solving the geotechnical problems. In this
study, geotechnical parameters namely soil type; SPT (N) blow
number, shear wave velocity (Vs) and depth of underground water
level (DUWL) have been engaged in MDCA and GIS. In terms of
geotechnical aspects, the settlement suitability of the municipal area
was analyzed by the method. MDCA results were compatible with
the geotechnical observations and experience. The method can be
employed in geotechnical oriented microzoning studies if the criteria
are well evaluated.
Abstract: Environmental aspects plays a central role in environmental management system (EMS) because it is the basis for the identification of an organization-s environmental targets. The
existing methods for the assessment of environmental aspects are grouped into three categories: risk assessment-based (RA-based),
LCA-based and criterion-based methods. To combine the benefits of
these three categories of research, this study proposes an integrated framework, combining RA-, LCA- and criterion-based methods. The
integrated framework incorporates LCA techniques for the identification of the causal linkage for aspect, pathway, receptor and
impact, uses fuzzy logic to assess aspects, considers fuzzy conditions,
in likelihood assessment, and employs a new multi-criteria decision analysis method - multi-criteria and multi-connection comprehensive
assessment (MMCA) - to estimate significant aspects in EMS. The proposed model is verified, using a real case study and the results show
that this method successfully prioritizes the environmental aspects.