Abstract: This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS) and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay its debts and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. For AEs, the evolution of the proportion of countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by a relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.
Abstract: This paper deals with the problem of using Autonomous Robotic Platforms (ARP) for the ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) testing in automotive. There are different possibilities of the testing already in development and lately, the ARP are beginning to be used more and more widely. ARP discussed in this paper explores the hardware and software design possibilities related to the field of embedded systems. The paper focuses in its chapters on the introduction of the problem in general, then it describes the proposed prototype concept and its principles from the embedded HW and SW point of view. It talks about the key features that can be used for the innovation of these platforms (e.g., modularity, omnidirectional movement, common and non-traditional sensors used for localization, synchronization of more platforms and cars together or safety mechanisms). In the end, the future possible development of the project is discussed as well.
Abstract: Edgeworth Approximation, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Simulations have a considerable impact on the achieving certain results related to different problems taken into study. In our paper, we have treated a financial case related to the effect that have the components of a Cash-Flow of one of the most successful businesses in the world, as the financial activity, operational activity and investing activity to the cash and cash equivalents at the end of the three-months period. To have a better view of this case we have created a Vector Autoregression model, and after that we have generated the impulse responses in the terms of Asymptotic Analysis (Edgeworth Approximation), Monte Carlo Simulations and Residual Bootstrap based on the standard errors of every series created. The generated results consisted of the common tendencies for the three methods applied, that consequently verified the advantage of the three methods in the optimization of the model that contains many variants.
Abstract: Wind turbines are equipment of great importance for generating clean energy in countries and regions with abundant winds. However, complex loadings fluctuations to which they are subject can cause premature failure of these equipment due to the material fatigue process. This work evaluates fatigue failures in small AISI 304 stainless steel turbine shafts. Fractographic analysis techniques, chemical analyzes using energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS), and hardness tests were used to verify the origin of the failures, characterize the properties of the components and the material. The nucleation of cracks on the shafts' surface was observed due to a combined effect of variable stresses, geometric stress concentrating details, and surface wear, leading to the crack's propagation until the catastrophic failure. Beach marks were identified in the macrographic examination, characterizing the probable failure due to fatigue. The sensitization phenomenon was also observed.
Abstract: In the fight against climate change, the energy consuming building sector must also be taken into account to solve this problem. In this case thermal insulation of buildings using bio-based materials is an interesting solution. Therefore, the thermal performance of some materials of this type has been studied. The advantages of these natural materials of plant origin are multiple, biodegradable, low economic cost, renewable and readily available. The use of biobased materials is widespread in the building sector in order to replace conventional insulation materials with natural materials. Vegetable fibers are very important because they have good thermal behaviour and good insulating properties. The aim of using bio-sourced materials is in line with the logic of energy control and environmental protection, the approach is to make the inhabitants of the houses comfortable and reduce their energy consumption (energy efficiency). In this research we will present the results of studies carried out on the thermal conductivity of banana leaves, latan leaves, vetivers fibers, palm kernel fibers, sargassum, coconut leaves, sawdust and bulk sugarcane leaves. The study on thermal conductivity was carried out in two ways, on the one hand using the flash method, and on the other hand a so-called hot box experiment was carried out. We will discuss and highlight a number of influential factors such as moisture and air pockets present in the samples on the thermophysical properties of these materials, in particular thermal conductivity. Finally, the result of a thermal performance test of banana leaves on a roof in Haiti will also be presented in this work.
Abstract: Data in IT systems in enterprises have been growing at phenomenal pace. This has provided opportunities to run analytics to gather intelligence on key business parameters that enable them to provide better products and services to customers. While there are several Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) and Business Intelligence (BI) tools and technologies available in marketplace to run analytics, there is a need for an integrated view when developing intelligent solutions in enterprises. This paper progressively elaborates a reference model for enterprise solutions, builds an integrated view of data, information and intelligence components and presents a reference architecture for intelligent enterprise solutions. Finally, it applies the reference architecture to an insurance organization. The reference architecture is the outcome of experience and insights gathered from developing intelligent solutions for several organizations.
Abstract: Although scientific methods have been the subject of a large number of papers, the term ‘scientific methods in educational management’ is still not well defined. In this paper, it is adopted the metasystems perspective to define the mentioned term and distinguish them from methods used in time of the scientific management and knowledge management paradigms. In our opinion, scientific methods in educational management rely on global phenomena, events, and processes and their influence on the educational organization. Currently, scientific methods in educational management are integrated with the phenomenon of globalization, cognitivisation, and openness, etc. of educational systems and with global events like the COVID-19 pandemic. Concrete scientific methods are nested in a hierarchy of more and more abstract models of educational management, which form the context of the global impact on education, in general, and learning outcomes, in particular. However, scientific methods can be assigned to a specific mission, strategy, or tactics of educational management of the concrete organization, either by the global management, local development of school organization, or/and development of the life-long successful learner. By accepting this assignment, the scientific method becomes a personal goal of each individual with the educational organization or the option to develop the educational organization at the global standards. In our opinion, in educational management, the scientific methods need to confine the scope to the deep analysis of concrete tasks of the educational system (i.e., teaching, learning, assessment, development), which result in concrete strategies of organizational development. More important are seeking the ways for dynamic equilibrium between the strategy and tactic of the planetary tasks in the field of global education, which result in a need for ecological methods of learning and communication. In sum, distinction between local and global scientific methods is dependent on the subjective conception of the task assignment, measurement, and appraisal. Finally, we conclude that scientific methods are not holistic scientific methods, but the strategy and tactics implemented in the global context by an effective educational/academic manager.
Abstract: Kernelized Correlation Filter (KCF) based trackers have gained a lot of attention recently because of their accuracy and fast calculation speed. However, this algorithm is not robust in cases where the object is lost by a sudden change of direction, being obscured or going out of view. In order to improve KCF performance in long-term tracking, this paper proposes an anomaly detection method for target loss warning by analyzing the response map of each frame, and a classification algorithm for reliable target re-locating mechanism by using Random fern. Being tested with Visual Tracker Benchmark and Visual Object Tracking datasets, the experimental results indicated that the precision and success rate of the proposed algorithm were 2.92 and 2.61 times higher than that of the original KCF algorithm, respectively. Moreover, the proposed tracker handles occlusion better than many state-of-the-art long-term tracking methods while running at 60 frames per second.
Abstract: Analysis of the human microbiome using metagenomic
sequencing data has demonstrated high ability in discriminating
various human diseases. Raw metagenomic sequencing data require
multiple complex and computationally heavy bioinformatics steps
prior to data analysis. Such data contain millions of short sequences
read from the fragmented DNA sequences and stored as fastq files.
Conventional processing pipelines consist in multiple steps including
quality control, filtering, alignment of sequences against genomic
catalogs (genes, species, taxonomic levels, functional pathways,
etc.). These pipelines are complex to use, time consuming and
rely on a large number of parameters that often provide variability
and impact the estimation of the microbiome elements. Training
Deep Neural Networks directly from raw sequencing data is a
promising approach to bypass some of the challenges associated with
mainstream bioinformatics pipelines. Most of these methods use the
concept of word and sentence embeddings that create a meaningful
and numerical representation of DNA sequences, while extracting
features and reducing the dimensionality of the data. In this paper
we present an end-to-end approach that classifies patients into disease
groups directly from raw metagenomic reads: metagenome2vec. This
approach is composed of four steps (i) generating a vocabulary of
k-mers and learning their numerical embeddings; (ii) learning DNA
sequence (read) embeddings; (iii) identifying the genome from which
the sequence is most likely to come and (iv) training a multiple
instance learning classifier which predicts the phenotype based on
the vector representation of the raw data. An attention mechanism
is applied in the network so that the model can be interpreted,
assigning a weight to the influence of the prediction for each genome.
Using two public real-life data-sets as well a simulated one, we
demonstrated that this original approach reaches high performance,
comparable with the state-of-the-art methods applied directly on
processed data though mainstream bioinformatics workflows. These
results are encouraging for this proof of concept work. We believe
that with further dedication, the DNN models have the potential to
surpass mainstream bioinformatics workflows in disease classification
tasks.
Abstract: The built-up area is a significant proxy to measure regional economic growth and reflects the Gross Provincial Product (GPP). However, an up-to-date and reliable database of built-up areas is not always available, especially in developing countries. The cloud-based geospatial analysis platform such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) provides an opportunity with accessibility and computational power for those countries to generate the built-up data. Therefore, this study aims to extract the built-up areas in Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), Thailand using day and nighttime satellite imagery based on GEE facilities. The normalized indices were generated from Landsat 8 surface reflectance dataset, including Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Built-up Index (BUI), and Modified Built-up Index (MBUI). These indices were applied to identify built-up areas in EEC. The result shows that MBUI performs better than BUI and NDBI, with the highest accuracy of 0.85 and Kappa of 0.82. Moreover, the overall accuracy of classification was improved from 79% to 90%, and error of total built-up area was decreased from 29% to 0.7%, after night-time light data from the Visible and Infrared Imaging Suite (VIIRS) Day Night Band (DNB). The results suggest that MBUI with night-time light imagery is appropriate for built-up area extraction and be utilize for further study of socioeconomic impacts of regional development policy over the EEC region.
Abstract: Autonomous vehicles look set to drastically alter the way we move people and goods, in urban as well as rural areas. However, little has been written about Africa with this regard. Moreover, in order for this new technology to be adopted, user acceptance is vital. The current research examines the user acceptance of autonomous minibus shuttles, as a solution for first/last mile public transport in Pretoria, South Africa. Of the respondents surveyed, only 2.31% perceived them as not useful. Respondents showed more interest in using these shuttles in combination with the bus rapid transit system (75.4%) as opposed to other modes of public transportation (40%). The significance of these findings is that they can help ensure that the implementation of autonomous public transport in South Africa is adapted to the local user. Furthermore, these findings could be adapted for other South African cities and other cities across the continent.
Abstract: The addition of a small amount of alumina cement to Portland cement results in immediate setting, a rapid increase in the compressive strength and a clear increase of the adhesion to concrete substrate. This phenomenon is used, among others, for the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds. Alumina cement is several times more expensive than Portland cement and is a component having a significant impact on prices of products manufactured with its use. For the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds, low-alumina cement containing approximately 40% Al2O3 is normally used. The aim of the study was to determine the impact of Portland cement with the addition of alumina cement on the basic physical and mechanical properties of cement slurries and mortars. CEM I 42.5R and three types of alumina cement containing 40%, 50% and 70% of Al2O3 were used for the tests. Mixes containing 4%, 6%, 8%, 10% and 12% of different varieties of alumina cement were prepared; for which, the time of initial and final setting, compressive and flexural strength and adhesion to concrete substrate were determined. The analysis of the obtained test results showed that a similar immediate setting effect and clearly better adhesion strength can be obtained using the addition of 6% of high-alumina cement than 12% of low-alumina cement. As the prices of these cements are similar, this can give significant financial savings in the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds.
Abstract: Innovation is the key element of economic development and a key factor in social processes. Technical innovations can be identified as prerequisites and causes of social change and cannot be created without the renewal of society. The study of social innovation can be characterised as one of the significant research areas of our day. The study’s aim is to identify the process of social innovation, which can be defined by input, transformation, and output factors. This approach divides the social innovation process into three parts: situation analysis, implementation, follow-up. The methods associated with each stage of the process are illustrated by the chronological line of social innovation. In this study, we have sought to present methodologies that support long- and short-term decision-making that is easy to apply, have different complementary content, and are well visualised for different user groups. When applying the methods, the reference objects are different: county, district, settlement, specific organisation. The solution proposed by the study supports the development of a methodological combination adapted to different situations. Having reviewed metric and conceptualisation issues, we wanted to develop a methodological combination along with a change management logic suitable for structured support to the generation of social innovation in the case of a locality or a specific organisation. In addition to a theoretical summary, in the second part of the study, we want to give a non-exhaustive picture of the two counties located in the north-eastern part of Hungary through specific analyses and case descriptions.
Abstract: Additive Manufacturing processes are becoming increasingly established in the industry for the economic production of complex prototypes and functional components. Laser beam melting (LBM), the most frequently used Additive Manufacturing technology for metal parts, has been gaining in industrial importance for several years. The LBM process chain – from material storage to machine set-up and component post-processing – requires many manual operations. These steps often depend on the manufactured component and are therefore not standardized. These operations are often not performed in a standardized manner, but depend on the experience of the machine operator, e.g., levelling of the build plate and adjusting the first powder layer in the LBM machine. This lack of standardization limits the reproducibility of the component quality. When processing metal powders with inhalable and alveolar particle fractions, the machine operator is at high risk due to the high reactivity and the toxic (e.g., carcinogenic) effect of the various metal powders. Faulty execution of the operation or unintentional omission of safety-relevant steps can impair the health of the machine operator. In this paper, all the steps of the LBM process chain are first analysed in terms of their influence on the two aforementioned challenges: reproducibility and work safety. Standardization to avoid errors increases the reproducibility of component quality as well as the adherence to and correct execution of safety-relevant operations. The corresponding lean method 5S will therefore be applied, in order to develop approaches in the form of recommended actions that standardize the work processes. These approaches will then be evaluated in terms of ease of implementation and their potential for improving reproducibility and work safety. The analysis and evaluation showed that sorting tools and spare parts as well as standardizing the workflow are likely to increase reproducibility. Organizing the operational steps and production environment decreases the hazards of material handling and consequently improves work safety.
Abstract: We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.
Abstract: The paper reviews the insights gained in combating COVID-19 in the US, Japan, and China. After evaluation and investigation, we found that China’s and Japan’s experience of fighting COVID-19 is commendable. The Chinese government and the Japanese administration have implemented highly effective governance and public health course of action to fight COVID-19. Government-led epidemic control with a staunch belief in science can roll out effective pandemic control strategies. In contrast, the US failed to react to COVID-19 effectively. The relaxed public health measures of ending shutdowns prematurely were not working. When the US keeps business open after the spring shutdown, COVID-19 cases are soaring. Such experiences inform us effective governance and a mandatory and stricter approach can better curb a pandemic than milder measures in handling a public health emergency. And China and Japan, where collectivistic culture reins, can better maneuver a public health crisis with collective efforts.
Abstract: This paper revolves around the concept of affordance. It aims to discover and develop an architectural typology based on the ecological concept of affordance. In order to achieve this aim, an analytical study is conducted and two sources were taken into account: 1- Gibson's definition of the concept of affordance and 2- The researches that are concerned on the affordance categorisation. As a result, this paper concluded 16 typologies of affordances, including the possibilities of mixing them based on both sources. To clarify these typologies and provide further understanding, a wide range of architectural examples are presented and proposed in the paper. To prove this vocabulary’s capability to diagnose and evaluate the affordance of different environments, an experimental study with two processes have been adapted: 1. Diagnostic process: the interpretation of the environments with regards to its affordance by using the new vocabulary (the developed typologies). 2. Evaluating process: the evaluation of the environments that have been interpreted and classified with regards to their affordances. By using the measures of emotional experience (the positive affect ‘PA’ and the negative affect ‘NA’) and the architectural evaluation criteria (beauty, economy and function). The experimental study proves that the typologies are capable of reading the affordance within different environments. Additionally, it explains how these different typologies reflect different interactions based on the previous processes. The data which are concluded from the evaluation of measures explain how different typologies of affordance that have already reflected different environments had different evaluations. In fact, some of them are recommended while the others are not. In other words, the paper draws a roadmap for designers to diagnose, evaluate and analyse the affordance into different architectural environments. After that, it guides them through adapting the best interaction (affordance category), which they intend to adapt into their proposed designs.
Abstract: The work reviewed and evaluated various genesis debris flow phenomena recently formatted in the Mletiskhevi, accordingly it revealed necessity of treatment modern debris flow against measures. Based on this, it is proposed the debris flow against truncated semi cone shape construction, which elements are contained in the car’s secondary tires. its constituent elements (sections), due to the possibilities of amortization and geometric shapes is effective and sustainable towards debris flow hitting force. The construction is economical, because after crossing the debris flows in the river bed, the riverbed is not cleanable, also the elements of the building are resource saving. For assessment of influence of cohesive debris flow at the construction and evaluation of the construction effectiveness have been implemented calculation in the specific assumptions with approved methodology. According to the calculation, it was established that after passing debris flow in the debris flow construction (in 3 row case) its hitting force reduces 3 times, that causes reduce of debris flow speed and kinetic energy, as well as sedimentation on a certain section of water drain in the lower part of the construction. Based on the analysis and report on the debris flow against construction, it can be said that construction is effective, inexpensive, technically relatively easy-to-reach measure, that’s why its implementation is prospective.
Abstract: Underground space is becoming a necessity nowadays, especially in highly congested urban areas. Retaining underground excavations using shoring systems is essential in order to protect adjoining structures from potential damage or collapse. Reinforced Concrete Piles (RCP) supported by multiple rows of tie-back anchors are commonly used type of shoring systems in deep excavations. However, executing anchors can sometimes be challenging because they might illegally trespass neighboring properties or get obstructed by infrastructure and other underground facilities. A technique is proposed in this paper, and it involves the addition of eccentric high-strength steel strands to the RCP section through ducts without providing the pile with lateral supports. The strands are then vertically stressed externally on the pile cap using a hydraulic jack, creating a compressive strengthening force in the concrete section. An experimental study about the behavior of the shoring wall by pre-stressed piles is presented during the execution of an open excavation in an urban area (Beirut city) followed by numerical analysis using finite element software. Based on the experimental results, this technique is proven to be cost-effective and provides flexible and sustainable construction of shoring works.
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in terms of its global reach and economic impacts. Historically, investment in infrastructure development projects has been touted to boost the economic growth of a nation. The State and Local governments responsible for delivering infrastructure assets work under tight budgets. Therefore, it is important to understand which infrastructure projects have the highest potential of boosting economic growth in the post-pandemic era. This paper presents relationships between infrastructure projects and economic growth. Statistical relationships between investment in different types of infrastructure projects (transit, water and wastewater, highways, power, manufacturing etc.) and indicators of economic growth are presented using historic data between 2002 and 2020 from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The outcome of the paper is the comparison of statistical correlations between investment in different types of infrastructure projects and indicators of economic growth. The comparison of the statistical correlations is useful in ranking the types of infrastructure projects based on their ability to influence economic prosperity. Therefore, investment in the infrastructures with the higher rank will have a better chance of boosting the economic growth. Once, the ranks are derived, they can be used by the decision-makers in infrastructure investment related decision-making process.