Abstract: This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS) and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay its debts and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. For AEs, the evolution of the proportion of countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by a relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.
Abstract: The main purpose of this research study is to assist non-profit organizations (NPOs) to better segment a group of least developing countries and to optimally target the most needier areas, so that the provided aids make positive and lasting differences. We applied international marketing and strategy approaches to segment a sub-group of candidates among a group of 151 countries identified by the UN-G77 list, and furthermore, we point out the areas of priorities. We use reliable and well known criteria on the basis of economics, geography, demography and behavioral. These criteria can be objectively estimated and updated so that a follow-up can be performed to measure the outcomes of any program. We selected 12 socio-economic criteria that complement each other: GDP per capita, GDP growth, industry value added, export per capita, fragile state index, corruption perceived index, environment protection index, ease of doing business index, global competitiveness index, Internet use, public spending on education, and employment rate. A weight was attributed to each variable to highlight the relative importance of each criterion within the country. Care was taken to collect the most recent available data from trusted well-known international organizations (IMF, WB, WEF, and WTO). Construct of equivalence was carried out to compare the same variables across countries. The combination of all these weighted estimated criteria provides us with a global index that represents the level of development per country. An absolute index that combines wars and risks was introduced to exclude or include a country on the basis of conflicts and a collapsing state. The final step applied to the included countries consists of a benchmarking method to select the segment of countries and the percentile of each criterion. The results of this study allowed us to exclude 16 countries for risks and security. We also excluded four countries because they lack reliable and complete data. The other countries were classified per percentile thru their global index, and we identified the needier and the areas where aids are highly required to help any NPO to prioritize the area of implementation. This new concept is based on defined, actionable, accessible and accurate variables by which NPO can implement their program and it can be extended to profit companies to perform their corporate social responsibility acts.
Abstract: Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) prepared by World Economic Forum has become a benchmark in studying the competitiveness of countries and for understanding the factors that enable competitiveness. Innovation is a key pillar in competitiveness and has the unique property of enabling exponential economic growth. This paper attempts to analyze how the pillars comprising the Global Competitiveness Index affect innovation and whether GDP growth can directly affect innovation outcomes for a country. The key objective of the study is to identify areas on which governments of developing countries can focus policies and programs to improve their country’s innovativeness. We have compiled a panel data set for top innovating countries and large emerging economies called BRICS from 2007-08 to 2014-15 in order to find the significant factors that affect innovation. The results of the regression analysis suggest that government should make policies to improve labor market efficiency, establish sophisticated business networks, provide basic health and primary education to its people and strengthen the quality of higher education and training services in the economy. The achievements of smaller economies on innovation suggest that concerted efforts by governments can counter any size related disadvantage, and in fact can provide greater flexibility and speed in encouraging innovation.
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between manufacturing growth and economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data ranging from 2001 to 2014. The paper employed the Johansen cointegration to test the Kaldor’s hypothesis. The Johansen cointegration results revealed that there is a long run relationship between GDP, manufacturing, service and employment. The Granger causality results revealed that there is a unidirectional causality running from manufacturing growth to GDP growth. The overall findings of the study confirm that Kaldor’s first law of growth is applicable in South African economy. Therefore, investment strategies and policies should be alignment towards promoting growth in the manufacturing sector in order to boost the economic growth of South Africa.
Abstract: Present empirical paper investigates the relationship
between FDI and economic growth by 10 selected industries in 10
Central and Eastern European countries from the period 1995 to
2012. Different estimation approaches were used to explore the
connection between FDI and economic growth, for example OLS,
RE, FE with and without time dummies. Obtained empirical results
leads to some main consequences: First, the Central and East
European countries (CEEC) attracted foreign direct investment,
which raised the productivity of industries they entered in. It should
be concluded that the linkage between FDI and output growth by
industries is positive and significant enough to suggest that foreign
firm’s participation enhanced the productivity of the industries they
occupied. There had been an endogeneity problem in the regression
and fixed effects estimation approach was used which partially
corrected the regression analysis in order to make the results less
biased. Second, it should be stressed that the results show that time
has an important role in making FDI operational for enhancing output
growth by industries via total factor productivity. Third, R&D
positively affected economic growth and at the same time, it should
take some time for research and development to influence economic
growth. Fourth, the general trends masked crucial differences at the
country level: over the last 20 years, the analysis of the tables and
figures at the country level show that the main recipients of FDI of
the 11 Central and Eastern European countries were Hungary, Poland
and the Czech Republic. The main reason was that these countries
had more open door policies for attracting the FDI. Fifth, according
to the graphical analysis, while Hungary had the highest FDI inflow
in this region, it was not reflected in the GDP growth as much as in
other Central and Eastern European countries.
Abstract: Based on Business and Consumer Survey (BCS) data,
the European Commission (EC) regularly publishes the monthly
Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for each EU member state. ESI
is conceptualized as a leading indicator, aimed ad tracking the overall
economic activity. In calculating ESI, the EC employs arbitrarily
chosen weights on 15 BCS response balances. This paper raises the
predictive quality of ESI by applying nonlinear programming to find
such weights that maximize the correlation coefficient of ESI and
year-on-year GDP growth. The obtained results show that the highest
weights are assigned to the response balances of industrial sector
questions, followed by questions from the retail trade sector. This
comes as no surprise since the existing literature shows that the
industrial production is a plausible proxy for the overall Croatian
economic activity and since Croatian GDP is largely influenced by
the aggregate personal consumption.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to explore the economic circumstances in which the selective credit policy, the least used instrument of four types of instruments on disposal to central banks, should be used. The most significant example includes the use of selective credit policies in response to the emergence of the global financial crisis by the FED. Specifics of the potential use of selective credit policies as the instigator of economic growth in Croatia, a small open economy, are determined by high euroization of financial system, fixed exchange rate and long-term trend growth of external debt that is related to the need to maintain high levels of foreign reserves. In such conditions, the classic forms of selective credit policies are unsuitable for the introduction. Several alternative approaches to implement selective credit policies are examined in this paper. Also, thorough analysis of distribution of selective monetary policy loans among economic sectors in Croatia is conducted in order to minimize the risk of investing funds and maximize the return, in order to influence the GDP growth.
Abstract: Knowledge is the foundation for growth and development. Investment in knowledge improves new method for originate knowledge society and knowledge economy. Investment in knowledge embraces expenditure on education and R&D and software. Measuring of investment in knowledge is characteristically complicated. We examine the influence of investment in knowledge in multifactor productivity growth and numbers of patent. We analyze the annual growth of investment in knowledge and we estimate portion of each country intended for produce total investment in knowledge on the whole OECD. We determine the relative efficiency of average patent numbers with average investment in knowledge and we compare GDP growth rates and growth of knowledge investment. The main purpose in this paper is to study to evaluate different aspect, influence and output of investment in knowledge in OECD countries.
Abstract: Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.
Abstract: This research examines possible effects of climatic
change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world
agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed
to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario
were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was
reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider
results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary
agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are
obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model.
Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or
regions will have different trends depending on the context. These
alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population,
temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of
environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food
in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental
policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant
further investigation.
Abstract: Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global
regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and
market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to
be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set
of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking
sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic
stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and
governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures.
Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential,
regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking
institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations,
system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well
as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two
approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at
the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks.
Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the
medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is
in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand
economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending
spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher
capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated
effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary
policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a
reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30
to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework
based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises.
Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute
to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first
part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking
system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second
part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed.
The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of
the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.