Abstract: This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS) and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay its debts and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. For AEs, the evolution of the proportion of countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by a relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.
Abstract: The service sector continues to grow and the percentage
of GDP accounted for by service industries keeps increasing. The
growth and importance of service to an economy is not just a
phenomenon of advanced economies, service is now a majority of the
world gross domestic products. However, the performance evaluation
process of new service development problems generally involves
uncertain and imprecise data. This paper presents a 2-tuple fuzzy
linguistic computing approach to dealing with heterogeneous
information and information loss problems while the processes of
subjective evaluation integration. The proposed method based on group
decision-making scenario to assist business managers in measuring
performance of new service development manipulates the
heterogeneity integration processes and avoids the information loss
effectively.