Abstract: Multiplicative multiple criteria decision making analysis (MCDMA) method is a systematic decision support system to aid decision makers reach appropriate decisions. The application of multiplicative MCDMA in the military aircraft selection problem is significant for proper decision making process, which is the decisive factor in minimizing expenditures and increasing defense capability and capacity. Nine military fighter aircraft alternatives were evaluated by ten decision criteria to solve the decision making problem. In this study, multiplicative MCDMA model aims to evaluate and select an appropriate military fighter aircraft for the Air Force fleet planning. The ranking results of multiplicative MCDMA model were compared with the ranking results of additive MCDMA, logarithmic MCDMA, and regrettive MCDMA models under the L2 norm data normalization technique to substantiate the robustness of the proposed method. The final ranking results indicate the military fighter aircraft Su-57 as the best available solution.
Abstract: Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).
Abstract: The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative
method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin.
Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as
hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management.
The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow
duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly
developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA)
models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then
these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each
having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves
of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10,
50 and 95% of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were
calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh
basin will comprehensively be represented.
Abstract: In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series
for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by
various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of
rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in
modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter
models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the
models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give
information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the
proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water
resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained
the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA
Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.
Abstract: Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.
Abstract: The authors have been developing several models
based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box-
Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series
of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest
Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the
different type models have been experimented as well as the features
used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the
best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to
their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a
comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using
simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward
architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and
a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the
task of predicting the mentioned time series.
Abstract: In this paper, many techniques for blind identification of moving average (MA) process are presented. These methods utilize third- and fourth-order cumulants of the noisy observations of the system output. The system is driven by an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) non-Gaussian sequence that is not observed. Two nonlinear optimization algorithms, namely the Gradient Descent and the Gauss-Newton algorithms are exposed. An algorithm based on the joint-diagonalization of the fourth-order cumulant matrices (FOSI) is also considered, as well as an improved version of the classical C(q, 0, k) algorithm based on the choice of the Best 1-D Slice of fourth-order cumulants. To illustrate the effectiveness of our methods, various simulation examples are presented.