Abstract: Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).
Abstract: The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.
Abstract: Since supply chains highly impact the financial
performance of companies, it is important to optimize and analyze
their Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The synergistic combination
of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Monte Carlo simulation is
applied to determine the optimal reorder point of warehouses in
supply chains. The goal of the optimization is the minimization of the
objective function calculated as the linear combination of holding and
order costs. The required values of service levels of the warehouses
represent non-linear constraints in the PSO. The results illustrate that
the developed stochastic simulator and optimization tool is flexible
enough to handle complex situations.
Abstract: Recordings from recent earthquakes have provided evidence that ground motions in the near field of a rupturing fault differ from ordinary ground motions, as they can contain a large energy, or “directivity" pulse. This pulse can cause considerable damage during an earthquake, especially to structures with natural periods close to those of the pulse. Failures of modern engineered structures observed within the near-fault region in recent earthquakes have revealed the vulnerability of existing RC buildings against pulse-type ground motions. This may be due to the fact that these modern structures had been designed primarily using the design spectra of available standards, which have been developed using stochastic processes with relatively long duration that characterizes more distant ground motions. Many recently designed and constructed buildings may therefore require strengthening in order to perform well when subjected to near-fault ground motions. Fiber Reinforced Polymers are considered to be a viable alternative, due to their relatively easy and quick installation, low life cycle costs and zero maintenance requirements. The objective of this paper is to investigate the adequacy of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to determine the three dimensional dynamic response of FRP strengthened RC buildings under the near-fault ground motions. For this purpose, one ANN model is proposed to estimate the base shear force, base bending moments and roof displacement of buildings in two directions. A training set of 168 and a validation set of 21 buildings are produced from FEA analysis results of the dynamic response of RC buildings under the near-fault earthquakes. It is demonstrated that the neural network based approach is highly successful in determining the response.
Abstract: Stochastic models of biological networks are well established in systems biology, where the computational treatment of such models is often focused on the solution of the so-called chemical master equation via stochastic simulation algorithms. In contrast to this, the development of storage-efficient model representations that are directly suitable for computer implementation has received significantly less attention. Instead, a model is usually described in terms of a stochastic process or a "higher-level paradigm" with graphical representation such as e.g. a stochastic Petri net. A serious problem then arises due to the exponential growth of the model-s state space which is in fact a main reason for the popularity of stochastic simulation since simulation suffers less from the state space explosion than non-simulative numerical solution techniques. In this paper we present transition class models for the representation of biological network models, a compact mathematical formalism that circumvents state space explosion. Transition class models can also serve as an interface between different higher level modeling paradigms, stochastic processes and the implementation coded in a programming language. Besides, the compact model representation provides the opportunity to apply non-simulative solution techniques thereby preserving the possible use of stochastic simulation. Illustrative examples of transition class representations are given for an enzyme-catalyzed substrate conversion and a part of the bacteriophage λ lysis/lysogeny pathway.
Abstract: In this paper we discuss the effect of unbounded particle interaction operator on particle growth and we study how this can address the choice of appropriate time steps of the numerical simulation. We provide also rigorous mathematical proofs showing that large particles become dominating with increasing time while small particles contribute negligibly. Second, we discuss the efficiency of the algorithm by performing numerical simulations tests and by comparing the simulated solutions with some known analytic solutions to the Smoluchowski equation.
Abstract: For decades financial economists have been attempted to determine the optimal investment policy by recognizing the option value embedded in irreversible investment whose project value evolves as a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). This paper aims to examine the effects of the optimal investment trigger and of the misspecification of stochastic processes on investment in real options applications. Specifically, the former explores the consequence of adopting optimal investment rules on the distributions of corporate value under the correct assumption of stochastic process while the latter analyzes the influence on the distributions of corporate value as a result of the misspecification of stochastic processes, i.e., mistaking an alternative process as a GBM. It is found that adopting the correct optimal investment policy may increase corporate value by shifting the value distribution rightward, and the misspecification effect may decrease corporate value by shifting the value distribution leftward. The adoption of the optimal investment trigger has a major impact on investment to such an extent that the downside risk of investment is truncated at the project value of zero, thereby moving the value distributions rightward. The analytical framework is also extended to situations where collection lags are in place, and the result indicates that collection lags reduce the effects of investment trigger and misspecification on investment in an opposite way.