Abstract: In multi-parameter family of distributions, conditions
for a modified maximum likelihood estimator to be second order
admissible are given. Applying these results to the multi-parameter
logistic regression model, it is shown that the maximum likelihood
estimator is always second order inadmissible. Also, conditions for
the Berkson estimator to be second order admissible are given.
Abstract: Economic dispatch (ED) is considered to be one of the
key functions in electric power system operation. This paper presents
a new hybrid approach based genetic algorithm (GA) to economic
dispatch problems. GA is most commonly used optimizing algorithm
predicated on principal of natural evolution. Utilization of chaotic
queue with GA generates several neighborhoods of near optimal
solutions to keep solution variation. It could avoid the search process
from becoming pre-mature. For the objective of chaotic queue
generation, utilization of tent equation as opposed to logistic equation
results in improvement of iterative speed. The results of the proposed
approach were compared in terms of fuel cost, with existing
differential evolution and other methods in literature.
Abstract: Environmental contamination is a common problem in ex-industrial and industrial sites. This article gives a brief description of general applied environmental investigation methodologies and possible remediation applications in Latvia. Most of contaminated areas are situated in former and active industrial, military areas and ports. Industrial and logistic activities very often have been with great impact for more than hundred years thus the contamination level with heavy metals, hydrocarbons, pesticides, persistent organic pollutants is high and is threatening health and environment in general. 242 territories now are numbered as contaminated and fixed in the National Register of contaminated territories in Latvia. Research and remediation of contamination in densely populated areas are of important environmental policy domain. Four different investigation case studies of contaminated areas are given describing the history of use, environmental quality assessment as well as planned environmental management actions. All four case study locations are situated in Riga - the capital of the Republic of Latvia. The aim of this paper is to analyze the situation and problems with management of contaminated areas in Latvia, give description of field research methods and recommendations for remediation industry based on scientific data and innovations.
Abstract: This paper estimates the economic values of
household preference for enhanced solid waste disposal services in
Malaysia. The contingent valuation (CV) method estimates an
average additional monthly willingness-to-pay (WTP) in solid waste
management charges of Ôé¼0.77 to 0.80 for improved waste disposal
services quality. The finding of a slightly higher WTP from the
generic CV question than that of label-specific, further reveals a
higher WTP for sanitary landfill, at Ôé¼0.90, than incineration, at Ôé¼0.63.
This suggests that sanitary landfill is a more preferred alternative.
The logistic regression estimation procedure reveals that household-s
concern of where their rubbish is disposed, age, ownership of house,
household income and format of CV question are significant factors
in influencing WTP.
Abstract: Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly
integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very
expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation
system which simulates transportation models using real time
resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the
specification of own control algorithms and validation of new
strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR)
environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress.
Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data
gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.
Abstract: Transportation is one of the main activities related to
creating value for the tourists. Transport management in tourism
mainly focuses on managing transfer points and vehicle capacity.
However, transport service level must also be ensured as it now
relates to tourist-s experiences. This paper emphasizes on the
responsiveness as one of key service performance measures. An
evaluation framework is developed and illustarted by using the case
of small bus service in Pattaya city. It can be seen as a great potential
for the city to utilize the small bus transportation in order to meet the
needs of more diverse group of passengers and to support the
expansion of tourist areas. The framework integrates with service
operations management, logistics, and tourism behavior perspectives.
The findings from the investigation of existing small bus service are
presented and preliminarily validate the usability of the framework.
Abstract: The purposes of this study were as follows to evaluate
the economic value of Phu Kradueng National Park by the travel cost
method (TCM) and the contingent valuation method (CVM) and to
estimate the demand for traveling and the willingness to pay. The
data for this study were collected by conducting two large scale
surveys on users and non-users. A total of 1,016 users and 1,034
non-users were interviewed. The data were analyzed using multiple
linear regression analysis, logistic regression model and the
consumer surplus (CS) was the integral of demand function for trips.
The survey found, were as follows:
1)Using the travel cost method which provides an estimate of direct
benefits to park users, we found that visitors- total willingness to pay
per visit was 2,284.57 bath, of which 958.29 bath was travel cost,
1,129.82 bath was expenditure for accommodation, food, and
services, and 166.66 bath was consumer surplus or the visitors -net
gain or satisfaction from the visit (the integral of demand function for
trips).
2) Thai visitors to Phu Kradueng National Park were further willing
to pay an average of 646.84 bath per head per year to ensure the
continued existence of Phu Kradueng National Park and to preserve
their option to use it in the future.
3) Thai non-visitors, on the other hand, are willing to pay an average
of 212.61 bath per head per year for the option and existence value
provided by the Park.
4) The total economic value of Phu Kradueng National Park to Thai
visitors and non-visitors taken together stands today at 9,249.55
million bath per year.
5) The users- average willingness to pay for access to Phu Kradueng
National Park rises
from 40 bath to 84.66 bath per head per trip for improved services
such as road improvement, increased cleanliness, and upgraded
information.
This paper was needed to investigate of the potential market
demand for bio prospecting in Phu Kradueng national Park and to
investigate how a larger share of the economic benefits of tourism
could be distributed income to the local residents.
Abstract: In this paper we use data mining techniques to investigate factors that contribute significantly to enhancing the risk of acute coronary syndrome. We assume that the dependent variable is diagnosis – with dichotomous values showing presence or absence of disease. We have applied binary regression to the factors affecting the dependent variable. The data set has been taken from two different cardiac hospitals of Karachi, Pakistan. We have total sixteen variables out of which one is assumed dependent and other 15 are independent variables. For better performance of the regression model in predicting acute coronary syndrome, data reduction techniques like principle component analysis is applied. Based on results of data reduction, we have considered only 14 out of sixteen factors.
Abstract: An increasingly dynamic and complex environment poses huge challenges to production enterprises, especially with regards to logistics. The Logistic Operating Curve Theory, developed at the Institute of Production Systems and Logistics (IFA) of the Leibniz University of Hanover, is a recognized approach to describing logistic interactions, nevertheless, it reaches its limits when it comes to the dynamic aspects. In order to facilitate a timely and optimal Logistic Positioning a method is developed for quickly and reliably identifying dynamic processing states.
Abstract: Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.
Abstract: The medical studies often require different methods
for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the
database-s designing and filling with information. One common
task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown
methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and
to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods
are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the
binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical
principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the
analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics
over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289
psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences).
Finally, we will make some observations about the relation
between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary
logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of
Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the
binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk
factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being
always true.
Abstract: In this paper a combined feature selection method is
proposed which takes advantages of sample domain filtering,
resampling and feature subset evaluation methods to reduce
dimensions of huge datasets and select reliable features. This method
utilizes both feature space and sample domain to improve the process
of feature selection and uses a combination of Chi squared with
Consistency attribute evaluation methods to seek reliable features.
This method consists of two phases. The first phase filters and
resamples the sample domain and the second phase adopts a hybrid
procedure to find the optimal feature space by applying Chi squared,
Consistency subset evaluation methods and genetic search.
Experiments on various sized datasets from UCI Repository of
Machine Learning databases show that the performance of five
classifiers (Naïve Bayes, Logistic, Multilayer Perceptron, Best First
Decision Tree and JRIP) improves simultaneously and the
classification error for these classifiers decreases considerably. The
experiments also show that this method outperforms other feature
selection methods.
Abstract: Plastic waste is a big issue in Thailand, but the amount of recycled plastic in Thailand is still low due to the high investment and operating cost. Hence, the rest of plastic waste are burnt to destroy or sent to the landfills. In order to be financial viable, an effective reverse logistics infrastructure is required to support the product recovery activities. However, there is a conflict between reducing the cost and raising environmental protection level. The purpose of this study is to build a goal programming (GP) so that it can be used to help analyze the proper planning of the Thailand-s plastic recycling system that involves multiple objectives. This study considers three objectives; reducing total cost, increasing the amount of plastic recovery, and raising the desired plastic materials in recycling process. The results from two priority structures show that it is necessary to raise the total cost budget in order to achieve targets on amount of recycled plastic and desired plastic materials.
Abstract: With today's fast lifestyles and busy schedule, nuclear
families are becoming popular. Thus, the elderly members of these
families are often neglected. This has lead to the popularity of the
concept of Community living for the aged. The elders reside at a
centre, which is controlled by the MANAGER. The manager takes
responsibility of the functioning of the centre which includes taking
care of 'residents' at the centre along with managing the daily chores
of the centre, which he accomplishes with the help of a number of
staff members and volunteers Often the Manager is not an employee
but a volunteer. In such cases especially, time is an important
constraint. A system, which provides an easy and efficient manner of
managing the working of an old age home in detail, will prove to be
of great benefit. We have developed a P.C. based organizer used to
monitor the various activities of an old age home. It is an effective
and easy-to-use system which will enable the manager to keep an
account of all the residents, their accounts, staff members, volunteers,
the centre-s logistic requirements etc. It is thus, a comprehensive
'Organizer' for Old Age Homes.
Abstract: Thailand is the agriculture country as the weather and geography are suitable for agriculture environment. In 2011, the quantity of exported fresh vegetable was 126,069 tons which valued 117.1 million US dollars. Although the fresh vegetable has a high potential in exporting, there also have a lack of knowledge such as chemical usage, land usage, marketing and also the transportation and logistics. Nakorn Pathom province is the area which the farmer and manufacturer of fresh vegetable located. The objectives of this study are to study the basic information of the local fresh vegetable farmers in Nakorn Pathom province, to study the factor which effects the management of the fresh vegetable supply chain in Nakorn Pathom province and to study the problems and obstacle of the fresh vegetable supply chain in Nakorn Pathom province. This study is limited to the flow of the Nakorn Pathom province fresh vegetable from the farmers to the country which import the vegetable from Thailand. The populations of this study are 100 local farmers in Nakorn Pathom province. The result of this study shows that the key process of the fresh vegetable supply chain is in the supply sourcing process and manufacturing process.
Abstract: Along with forward supply chain organization needs
to consider the impact of reverse logistics due to its economic
advantage, social awareness and strict legislations. In this paper, we
develop a system dynamics framework for a closed-loop supply
chain with fuzzy demand and fuzzy collection rate by incorporating
product exchange policy in forward channel and various recovery
options in reverse channel. The uncertainty issues associated with
acquisition and collection of used product have been quantified using
possibility measures. In the simulation study, we analyze order
variation at both retailer and distributor level and compare bullwhip
effects of different logistics participants over time between the
traditional forward supply chain and the closed-loop supply chain.
Our results suggest that the integration of reverse logistics can reduce
order variation and bullwhip effect of a closed-loop system. Finally,
sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of various
parameters on recovery process and bullwhip effect.
Abstract: Nowadays there are lots of applications of power and
free conveyors in logistics. They are the most frequently used
conveyor systems worldwide. Overhead conveyor technologies like
power and free systems are used in the most intra-logistics
applications in trade and industry. The automotive, food, beverage
and textile industry as well as aeronautic catering or engineering are
among the applications. Power and free systems employ different
manufacturing intervals in manufacturing as well as in production as
temporary store and buffer. Depending on the application area, power
and free conveyors are equipped with target controls enabling
complex distribution-and sorting tasks. This article introduces a new
power and free conveyor design in intra-logistics and explains its
components. According to the explanation of the components, a
model is created by means of their technical characteristics. Through
the CAD software, the model is visualized. After that, the static
analysis is evaluated. This analysis helps the calculation of the
mandatory state of structures under force action. This powerful model
helps companies achieve lower development costs as well as quicker
market maturity.
Abstract: Overhead conveyor systems satisfy by their simple
construction, wide application range and their full compatibility with
other manufacturing systems, which are designed according to
international standards. Ultra-light overhead conveyor systems are
rope-based conveying systems with individually driven vehicles. The
vehicles can move automatically on the rope and this can be realized
by energy and signals. Crossings are realized by switches. Overhead
conveyor systems are particularly used in the automotive industry but
also at post offices. Overhead conveyor systems always must be
integrated with a logistical process by finding the best way for a
cheaper material flow and in order to guarantee precise and fast
workflows. With their help, any transport can take place without
wasting ground and space, without excessive company capacity, lost
or damaged products, erroneous delivery, endless travels and without
wasting time. Ultra-light overhead conveyor systems provide optimal
material flow, which produces profit and saves time. This article
illustrates the advantages of the structure of the ultra-light overhead
conveyor systems in logistics applications and explains the steps of
their system design. After an illustration of the steps, currently
available systems on the market will be shown by means of their
technical characteristics. Due to their simple construction, demands
to an ultra-light overhead conveyor system will be illustrated.
Abstract: Developing a stable early warning system (EWS)
model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging
task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method
which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the
aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN
performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in
our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a
consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods
which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural
network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The
analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic
indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method
with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other
methods.
Abstract: Guaranteeing the availability of the required parts at
the scheduled time represents a key logistical challenge. This is
especially important when several parts are required together. This
article describes a tool that supports the positioning in the area of
conflict between low stock costs and a high service level for a
consumer.