Abstract: In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested
in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate
these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated
with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order
statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order
statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places
with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson
Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated
assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions.
Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations
of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number
of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original
place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts
the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly
outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place
increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the
log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola
2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be
highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5%
of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model
exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear
regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.
Abstract: A landing pier is subjected to safety assessment by visual inspection and design data, but it is difficult to check the damage in real-time. In this study, real - time damage detection and safety evaluation methods were studied. As a result of structural analysis of the arbitrary landing pier structure, the inflection point of deformation and moment occurred at 10%, 50%, and 90% of pile length. The critical value of Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensor was set according to the safety factor, and the FBG sensor application method for real - time safety evaluation was derived.
Abstract: The present work is dealing with 2% Si-steel alloy. The alloy contains 0.05% C as well as 0.85% Al. The alloy under investigation would be used for electrical transformation purposes. A heating (expansion) - cooling (contraction) dilation investigation was executed to detect the a, a+g, and g transformation temperatures at the inflection points of the dilation curve. On heating, primary a was detected at a temperature range between room temperature and 687 oC. The domain of a+g was detected in the range between 687 oC and 746 oC. g phase exists in the closed g region at the range between 746 oC and 1043 oC. The domain of a phase appears again at a temperature range between 1043 and 1105 oC, and followed by secondary a at temperature higher than 1105 oC. A physical simulation of thermo-mechanical processing on the as-cast alloy was carried out. The simulation process took into consideration the hot flat rolling pilot plant parameters. The process was executed on the thermo-mechanical simulator (Gleeble 3500). The process was designed to include seven consecutive passes. The 1st pass represents the roughing stage, while the remaining six passes represent finish rolling stage. The whole process was executed at the temperature range from 1100 oC to 900 oC. The amount of strain starts with 23.5% at the roughing pass and decreases continuously to reach 7.5 % at the last finishing pass. The flow curve of the alloy can be abstracted from the stress-strain curves representing simulated passes. It shows alloy hardening from a pass to the other up to pass no. 6, as a result of decreasing the deformation temperature and increasing of cumulative strain. After pass no. 6, the deformation process enhances the dynamic recrystallization phenomena to appear, where the z-parameter would be high.
Abstract: Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil
hydraulic properties which is widely used in environmental studies
especially subsurface ground water. Since, its direct measurement is
time consuming and therefore costly, indirect methods such as
pedotransfer functions have been developed based on multiple linear
regression equations and neural networks model in order to estimate
saturated hydraulic conductivity from readily available soil
properties e.g. sand, silt, and clay contents, bulk density, and organic
matter. The objective of this study was to develop neural networks
(NNs) model to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from
available parameters such as sand and clay contents, bulk density,
van Genuchten retention model parameters (i.e. r
θ , α , and n) as well
as effective porosity. We used two methods to calculate effective
porosity: : (1) eff s FC φ =θ -θ , and (2) inf φ =θ -θ eff s , in which s
θ is
saturated water content, FC θ is water content retained at -33 kPa
matric potential, and inf θ is water content at the inflection point.
Total of 311 soil samples from the UNSODA database was divided
into three groups as 187 for the training, 62 for the validation (to
avoid over training), and 62 for the test of NNs model. A commercial
neural network toolbox of MATLAB software with a multi-layer
perceptron model and back propagation algorithm were used for the
training procedure. The statistical parameters such as correlation
coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were also used to
evaluate the developed NNs model. The best number of neurons in
the middle layer of NNs model for methods (1) and (2) were
calculated 44 and 6, respectively. The R2 and MSE values of the test
phase were determined for method (1), 0.94 and 0.0016, and for
method (2), 0.98 and 0.00065, respectively, which shows that method
(2) estimates saturated hydraulic conductivity better than method (1).
Abstract: S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies.
However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead
to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology
forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be
discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other
forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in
technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages,
disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on
3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the
results will be discussed.
Abstract: The principal focus of this study is on the
measurement and analysis of labor learnings in Pakistan. The study
at the aggregate economy level focus on the labor productivity
movements and at large-scale manufacturing level focus on the cost
structure, with isolating the contribution of the learning curve. The
analysis of S-shaped curve suggests that learnings are only below one
half of aggregate learning curve and other half shows the retardation
in learning, hence retardation in productivity movements. The study
implies the existence of learning economies in term of cost reduction
that is input cost per unit produced decreases by 0.51 percent every
time the cumulative production output doubles.