Abstract: The paper deals with the analysis of hazards and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply of population in a selected region of the Czech Republic. The procedure of identification and analysis of hazards and sensitivity is carried out on the basis of a unique methodology of classifying the drinking water resources earmarked for emergency supply of population. The hazard identification is based on a general register of hazards for individual parts of hydrological structure and the elements of technological equipment. It is followed by a semi-quantitative point indexation for the activation of each identified hazard, i.e. fires of anthropogenic origin, flood and the increased radioactive background accompanied by the leak of radon. Point indexation of sensitivity has been carried out at the same time. The analysis is the basis for a risk assessment of potential resource of emergency supply of population and the subsequent classification of such resource within the system of crisis planning.
Abstract: Reliable water level forecasts are particularly
important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The
current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive
network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level
modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least
square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to
identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels
data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling
interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should
be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical
methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation
function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until
12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at
higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased
fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and
provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation.
In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system
provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead
where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to
12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good
performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than
9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results
provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning
system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential
extreme flood are indicated.
Abstract: This work concerns on experimentally investigation
of surfactant flooding in fractured porous media. In this study a series
of water and surfactant injection processes were performed on
micromodels initially saturated with a heavy crude oil. Eight
fractured glass micromodels were used to illustrate effects of
surfactant types and concentrations on oil recovery efficiency in
presence of fractures with different properties i.e. fracture
orientation, length and number of fractures. Two different
surfactants with different concentrations were tested. The results
showed that surfactant flooding would be more efficient by using
SDS surfactant aqueous solution and also by locating injection well
in a proper position respect to fracture properties. This study
demonstrates different physical and chemical conditions that affect
the efficiency of this method of enhanced oil recovery.
Abstract: Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can
cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is
that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place
in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to
its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert
to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi
Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated,
investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather
model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a
reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been
utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated
with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall
measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model
forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was
10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between
WRF model and real measurements results.
Abstract: Ice cover County has a significant impact on rivers as it affects with the ice melting capacity which results in flooding, restrict navigation, modify the ecosystem and microclimate. River ices are made up of different ice types with varying ice thickness, so surveillance of river ice plays an important role. River ice types are captured using infrared imaging camera which captures the images even during the night times. In this paper the river ice infrared texture images are analysed using first-order statistical methods and secondorder statistical methods. The second order statistical methods considered are spatial gray level dependence method, gray level run length method and gray level difference method. The performance of the feature extraction methods are evaluated by using Probabilistic Neural Network classifier and it is found that the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method yields low accuracy. So the features extracted from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method are combined and it is observed that the result of these combined features (First order statistical method + gray level run length method) provides higher accuracy when compared with the features from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method alone.
Abstract: Use of microemulsion in enhanced oil recovery has become more attractive in recent years because of its high level of extraction efficiency. Experimental investigations have been made on characterization of microemulsions of oil-brinesurfactant/ cosurfactant system for its use in enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Sodium dodecyl sulfate, propan-1-ol and heptane were selected as surfactant, cosurfactant and oil respectively for preparation of microemulsion. The effects of salinity on the relative phase volumes and solubilization parameters have also been studied. As salinity changes from low to high value, phase transition takes place from Winsor I to Winsor II via Winsor III. Suitable microemulsion composition has been selected based on its stability and ability to reduce interfacial tension. A series of flooding experiments have been performed using the selected microemulsion. The flooding experiments were performed in a core flooding apparatus using uniform sand pack. The core holder was tightly packed with uniform sands (60-100 mesh) and saturated with brines of different salinities. It was flooded with the brine at 25 psig and the absolute permeability was calculated from the flow rate of the through sand pack. The sand pack was then flooded with the crude oil at 800 psig to irreducible water saturation. The initial water saturation was determined on the basis of mass balance. Waterflooding was conducted by placing the coreholder horizontally at a constant injection pressure at 200 pisg. After water flooding, when water-cut reached above 95%, around 0.5 pore volume (PV) of the above microemulsion slug was injected followed by chasing water. The experiments were repeated using different composition of microemulsion slug. The additional recoveries were calculated by material balance. Encouraging results with additional recovery more than 20% of original oil in place above the conventional water flooding have been observed.
Abstract: High level and high velocity flood flows are
potentially harmful to bridge piers as evidenced in many toppled
piers, and among them the single-column piers were considered as
the most vulnerable. The flood flow characteristic parameters
including drag coefficient, scouring and vortex shedding are built into
a pier-flood interaction model to investigate structural safety against
flood hazards considering the effects of local scouring, hydrodynamic
forces, and vortex induced resonance vibrations. By extracting the
pier-flood simulation results embedded in a neural networks code,
two cases of pier toppling occurred in typhoon days were reexamined:
(1) a bridge overcome by flash flood near a mountain side;
(2) a bridge washed off in flood across a wide channel near the
estuary. The modeling procedures and simulations are capable of
identifying the probable causes for the tumbled bridge piers during
heavy floods, which include the excessive pier bending moments and
resonance in structural vibrations.
Abstract: The one of most important objects in implementation
of damage analysis observations is manner of dam break wave
propagation. In this paper velocity and wave height due dam break in
with and without tailwater states for appointment hazardous lands
and flood radius are investigate. In order to modeling above
phenomenon finite volume method of Roe type for solving shallow
water equations is used. Results indicated that in the dry bed state
risk radius due to dam break is too high. While in the wet bed risk
radius has a less wide. Therefore in the first state constructions and
storage facilities are encountered with destruction risk. Further
velocity due to dam break in the second state is more comparing to
the first state. Hence erosion and scour the river bed in the dry bed is
too more compare to the wet bed.
Abstract: One of the efficient factors in comprehensive
development of an area is to provide water sources and on the other
hand the appropriate management of them. Population growth and
nourishment security for such a population necessitate the
achievement of constant development besides the reforming of
traditional management in order to increase the profit of sources; In
this case, the constant exploitation of sources for the next generations
will be considered in this program. The achievement of this
development without the consideration and possibility of water
development will be too difficult. Zayanderood basin with 41500
areas in square kilometers contains 7 sub-basins and 20 units of
hydrologic. In this basin area, from the entire environment
descending, just a small part will enter into the river currents and the
rest will be out of efficient usage by various ways. The most
important surface current of this basin is Zayanderood River with
403 kilometers length which is originated from east slopes of Zagros
mount and after draining of this basin area it will enter into
Gaavkhooni pond. The existence of various sources and
consumptions of water in Zayanderood basin, water transfer of the
other basin areas into this basin, of course the contradiction between
the upper and lower beneficiaries, the existence of worthwhile
natural ecosystems such as Gaavkhooni swamp in this basin area and
finally, the drought condition and lack of water in this area all
necessitate the existence of comprehensive management of water
sources in this central basin area of Iran as this method is a kind of
management which considers the development and the management
of water sources as an equilibrant way to increase the economical
and social benefits. In this study, it is tried to survey the network of
surface water sources of basin in upper and lower sections; at the
most, according to the difficulties and deficiencies of an efficient
management of water sources in this basin area, besides the
difficulties of water draining and the destructive phenomenon of
flood-water, the appropriate guidelines according to the region
conditions are presented in order to prevent the deviation of water in
upper sections and development of regions in lower sections of
Zayanderood dam.
Abstract: This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.
Abstract: Sedimentation in reservoirs lowers the quality of
consumed water, reduce the volume of reservoir, lowers the
controllable amount of flood, increases the risk of water overflow
during possible floods and the risk of reversal and reduction of dam's
useful life. So in all stages of dam establishment such as cognitive
studies, phase-1 studies of design, control, construction and
maintenance, the problem of sedimentation in reservoir should be
considered. What engineers need to do is examine and develop the
methods to keep effective capacity of a reservoir, however engineers
should also consider the influences of the methods on the flood
disaster, functions of water use facilities and environmental
issues.This article first examines the sedimentation in reservoirs and
shows how to control it and then discusses the studies about the
sedimens in Siazakh Dam.
Abstract: This paper proposes a Wavelength Division
Multiplexing (WDM) technology based Storage Area Network
(SAN) for all type of Disaster recovery operation. It considers
recovery when all paths failure in the network as well as the main
SAN site failure also the all backup sites failure by the effect of
natural disasters such as earthquakes, fires and floods, power outage,
and terrorist attacks, as initially SAN were designed to work within
distance limited environments[2]. Paper also presents a NEW PATH
algorithm when path failure occurs. The simulation result and
analysis is presented for the proposed architecture with performance
consideration.
Abstract: There are various overlay structures that provide
efficient and scalable solutions for point and range query in a peer-topeer
network. Overlay structure based on m-Binary Search Tree
(BST) is one such popular technique. It deals with the division of the
tree into different key intervals and then assigning the key intervals to
a BST. The popularity of the BST makes this overlay structure
vulnerable to different kinds of attacks. Here we present four such
possible attacks namely index poisoning attack, eclipse attack,
pollution attack and syn flooding attack. The functionality of BST is
affected by these attacks. We also provide different security
techniques that can be applied against these attacks.
Abstract: Bridge is an architectural symbol in Iran as Badgir
(wind catcher); fire temples and arch are vaults are such. Therefore, from the very old ages, construction of bridges in Iran has mixed with
architecture, social customs, alms and charity and holiness. Since long ago, from Mad, Achaemenid, Parthian and Sassanid times which construction of bridges got an inseparable relation with social dependency and architecture, based on those dependency bridges and
dams got holy names; as Dokhtar castle and Dokhtar bridges were constructed. This method continued even after Islam and whenever
Iranians got free from political fights and the immunity of roads were established the bridge construction did also prospered. In ancient
times bridge construction passes through it growing and completion process and in Sassanid time in some way it reached to the peak of art
and glory; as after Islam especially during 4th. century (Arab calendar) it put behind a period of glory and in Safavid time it
reached to an exceptional glory and magnificence by constructing
glorious bridges on Zayandeh Roud River in Isfahan.
Having a combined style and changeability into bridge barrier, some of these bridges develop into magnificent constructions. The
sustainable structures, mentioned above, are constructed for various
reasons as follows: connecting two sides of a river, storing water,
controlling floods, using water energy to operate water windmills, making lanes of streams for farms- use, and building recreational
places for people, etc. These studies carried in bridges reveals the fact
that in construction and designing mentioned above, lots of
technological factors have been taken into consideration such as
exceeding floods in the rives, hydraulic and hydrology of the rivers and bridges, geology, foundation, structure, construction material, and adopting appropriate executing methods, all of which are being analyzed in this article.
Abstract: In recent years, the number of natural disasters in Laos has a trend to increase, especially the disaster of flood. To make a flood plan risk management in the future, it is necessary to understand and analyze the characteristics of the rainfall and Mekong River level data. To reduce the damage, this paper presents the flood risk analysis in Luangprabang and Vientiane, the prefecture of Laos. In detail, the relationship between the rainfall and the Mekong River level has evaluated and appropriate countermeasure for flood was discussed.
Abstract: Heavy rains are one of the features of arid and semi
arid climates which result in flood. This kind of rainfall originates
from environmental and synoptic conditions. Mediterranean cyclones
are the major factor in heavy rainfall in Iran, but these cyclones do
not happen in some parts of Iran such as Southern and Southeastern
areas. In this study, it has been tried to pinpoint the synoptic reasons
of heavy rainfall in Isfahan through the analysis of the relationship
between this rainfall in Isfahan and atmospheric system over Iran and
the areas around it. The findings of this study show that the major
factor have is the arrival of Sudanese low pressure system in this
region from the southwest, of course if the ascent local conditions
such as heat occur, the heaviest rains happen in Isfahan. In fact this
kind of rainfall in Isfahan has a Sudanese origin and if it is
accompanied by Mediterranean system, heavier rain falls.
Abstract: This research was conducted in the Lower Ping River
Basin downstream of the Bhumibol Dam and the Lower Wang River
Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. Most of the tributary streams of the
Ping can be considered as ungauged catchments. There are 10-
pumping station installation at both river banks of the Ping in Tak
Province. Recently, most of them could not fully operate due to the
water amount in the river below the level that would be pumping,
even though included water from the natural river and released flow
from the Bhumibol Dam. The aim of this research was to increase the
performance of those pumping stations using weir projects in the
Ping. Therefore, the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) was
applied to study the hydraulic behavior of water surface profiles in
the Ping River with both cases of existing conditions and proposed
weirs during the violent flood in 2011 and severe drought in 2013.
Moreover, the hydrologic modeling system (HMS) was applied to
simulate lateral streamflow hydrograph from ungauged catchments of
the Ping. The results of HEC-RAS model calibration with existing
conditions in 2011 showed best trial roughness coefficient for the
main channel of 0.026. The simulated water surface levels fitted to
observation data with R2 of 0.8175. The model was applied to 3
proposed cascade weirs with 2.35 m in height and found surcharge
water level only 0.27 m higher than the existing condition in 2011.
Moreover, those weirs could maintain river water levels and increase
of those pumping performances during less river flow in 2013.
Abstract: Extensive rainfall disaggregation approaches have been developed and applied in climate change impact studies such as flood risk assessment and urban storm water management.In this study, five rainfall models that were capable ofdisaggregating daily rainfall data into hourly one were investigated for the rainfall record in theChangi Airport, Singapore. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of hourly rainfall in Singapore, and (ii) to evaluate the performance of variousdisaggregation models. The used models included: (i) Rectangular pulse Poisson model (RPPM), (ii) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular pulse model (BLRPM), (iii) Bartlett-Lewis model with 2 cell types (BL2C), (iv) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular with cell depth distribution dependent on duration (BLRD), and (v) Neyman-Scott Rectangular pulse model (NSRPM). All of these models werefitted using hourly rainfall data ranging from 1980 to 2005 (which was obtained from Changimeteorological station).The study results indicated that the weight scheme of inversely proportional variance could deliver more accurateoutputs for fitting rainfall patterns in tropical areas, and BLRPM performedrelatively better than other disaggregation models.
Abstract: The aim of this study was to examine the dynamics of functional composition of a non flooded Amazonian forest in response to drought stress in terms of diameter growth, recruitment and mortality. The survey was carried out in the continuous forest of the Biological dynamics of forest fragments project 90 km outside the city of Manaus, state of Amazonas Brazil. All stems >10 cm dbh where identified to species level and monitored in 18 one hectare permanent sample plots from 1981 to 2004.For statistical analysis all species where aggregated in three ecological guilds. Two distinct drought events occurred in 1983 and 1997. Results showed that more early successional species performed better than later successional ones. Response was significant for both events but for the 1997 event this was more pronounced possibly because of the fact that the event was in the middle of the dry rather than the wet period as was the 1983 one.
Abstract: Permeability reduction induced by asphaltene
precipitation during gas injection is one of the serious problems in
the oil industry. This problem can lead to formation damage and
decrease the oil production rate. In this work, Malaysian light oil
sample has been used to investigate the effect CO2 injection and
Water Alternating Gas (WAG) injection on permeability reduction.
In this work, dynamic core flooding experiments were conducted to
study the effect of CO2 and WAG injection on the amount of
asphaltene precipitated. Core properties after displacement were
inspected for any permeability reduction to study the effect of
asphaltene precipitation on rock properties.
The results showed that WAG injection gave less asphaltene
precipitation and formation damage compared to CO2 injection. The
study suggested that WAG injection can be one of the important
factors of managing asphaltene precipitation.