Abstract: When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.
Abstract: The Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR) is an internationally-recognized region of consistent upwelling events, high productivity, and rich biodiversity. Despite its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll condition, the archipelago has experienced phytoplankton blooms, especially in the western section between Isabela and Fernandina Islands. However, little is known about how climate variability will affect future phytoplankton standing stock in the Galápagos, and no consistent protocols currently exist to quantify phytoplankton biomass, identify species, or monitor for potential harmful algal blooms (HABs) within the archipelago. This analysis investigates physical, chemical, and biological oceanic variables that contribute to algal blooms within the GMR, using 4 km Aqua MODIS satellite imagery and 0.125-degree wind stress data from January 2003 to December 2016. Furthermore, this study analyzes chlorophyll-a concentrations at varying spatial scales— within the greater archipelago, as well as within five smaller bioregions based on species biodiversity in the GMR. Seasonal and interannual trend analyses, correlations, and hotspot identification were performed. Results demonstrate that chlorophyll-a is expressed in two seasons throughout the year in the GMR, most frequently in September and March, with a notable hotspot in the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Interannual chlorophyll-a trend analyses revealed highest peaks in 2003, 2007, 2013, and 2016, and variables that correlate highly with chlorophyll-a include surface temperature and particulate organic carbon. This study recommends future in situ sampling locations for phytoplankton monitoring, including the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Conclusions from this study contribute to the knowledge of oceanic drivers that catalyze primary productivity and consequently affect species biodiversity within the GMR. Additionally, this research can inform policy and decision-making strategies for species conservation and management within bioregions of the Galápagos.
Abstract: This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.
Abstract: Climate variability and changes are the emerging challenges for Indian agriculture with the growing population to ensure national food security. A study was conducted to assess the Climatic Change effects in medium to low altitude areas of the Himalayan region causing changes in land use and cereal crop productivity with the various climatic parameters. The rainfall and temperature changes from 1951 to 2013 were studied at four locations of varying altitudes, namely Hardwar, Rudra Prayag, Uttar Kashi and Tehri Garwal. It was observed that there is noticeable increment in temperature on all the four locations. It was surprisingly observed that the mean rainfall intensity of 30 minutes duration has increased at the rate of 0.1 mm/hours since 2000. The study shows that the combined effect of increasing temperature, rainfall, runoff and urbanization at the mid-Himalayan region is causing an increase in various climatic disasters and changes in agriculture patterns. A noticeable change in cropping patterns, crop productivity and land use change was observed. Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are necessary to ensure that sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture. Appropriate information is necessary for farmers, as well as planners and decision makers for developing, disseminating and adopting climate-smart technologies.
Abstract: The squid Loligo forbesii is suspected to be an important species in marine food webs, as it can strongly impact its prey and be impacted upon by predation, competition, fishing and/or climate variability. To quantify these impacts in the food web, the measurement of its trophic position and ecological role within well-studied ecosystems is essential. An Ecopath model was balanced and run for the Moray Firth ecosystem and was used to investigate the significance of this squid’s trophic roles. The network analysis routine included in Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) was used to estimate trophic interaction, system indicators (health condition and developmental stage) and food web features. Results indicated that within the Moray Firth squid occupy a top trophic position in the food web and also a major prey item for many other species. Results from Omnivory Index (OI) showed that squid is a generalized feeder transferring energy across wide trophic levels and is more important as a predator than that as a prey in the Moray Firth ecosystem. The results highlight the importance of taking squid into account in the management of Europe’s living marine resources.
Abstract: The majority of the urban areas in Latin America face the challenges associated with city planning and development problems, attributed to human, technical, and economical factors; therefore, we cannot ignore the issues related to climate change because the city modifies the natural landscape in a significant way transforming the radiation balance and heat content in the urbanized areas. These modifications provoke changes in the temperature distribution known as “the heat island effect”. According to this phenomenon, we have the need to conceive the urban planning based on climatological patterns that will assure its sustainable functioning, including the particularities of the climate variability. In the present study, it is identified the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) in the Metropolitan Area of the Aburrá Valley (Colombia) with the objective of relocate the air quality monitoring stations as a partial solution to the problem of how to measure representative air quality levels in a city for a local scale, but with instruments that measure in the microscale.
Abstract: Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns
with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes.
Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become
increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty
related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed
changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an
increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although
the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general
picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and
frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary
characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate
change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic
downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models
(RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric
physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields
as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture
the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a
basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical
relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called
predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands.
The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical
downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological
variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then
served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to
obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other
hydrological variables of interest.
Abstract: Heat Index describes the combined effect of
temperature and humidity on human body. This combined effect is
causing a serious threat to the health of people because of the
changing climate. With climate change, climate variability and thus
the occurrence of heat waves is likely to increase. Evidence is
emerging from the analysis of long-term climate records of an
increase in the frequency and duration of extreme temperature events
in all over Bangladesh particularly during summer. Summer season
has prolonged while winters have become short in Bangladesh.
Summers have become hotter and thus affecting the lives of the
people engaged in outdoor activities during scorching sun hours. In
2003 around 62 people died due to heat wave across the country. In
this paper Bangladesh is divided in four regions and heat index has
been calculated from 1960 to 2010 in these regions of the country.
The aim of this paper is to identify the spots most vulnerable to heat
strokes and heat waves due to high heat index. The results show
upward trend of heat index in almost all the regions of Bangladesh.
The highest increase in heat index value has been observed in areas
of South-west region and North-west Region. The highest change in
average heat index has been found in Jessore by almost 5.50C.
Abstract: The response of growth and yield of rainfed-chickpea
to population density should be evaluated based on long-term
experiments to include the climate variability. This is achievable just
by simulation. In this simulation study, this evaluation was done by
running the CYRUS model for long-term daily weather data of five
locations in Iran. The tested population densities were 7 to 59 (with
interval of 2) stands per square meter. Various functions, including
quadratic, segmented, beta, broken linear, and dent-like functions,
were tested. Considering root mean square of deviations and linear
regression statistics [intercept (a), slope (b), and correlation
coefficient (r)] for predicted versus observed variables, the quadratic
and broken linear functions appeared to be appropriate for describing
the changes in biomass and grain yield, and in harvest index,
respectively. Results indicated that in all locations, grain yield tends
to show increasing trend with crowding the population, but
subsequently decreases. This was also true for biomass in five
locations. The harvest index appeared to have plateau state across
low population densities, but decreasing trend with more increasing
density. The turning point (optimum population density) for grain
yield was 30.68 stands per square meter in Isfahan, 30.54 in Shiraz,
31.47 in Kermanshah, 34.85 in Tabriz, and 32.00 in Mashhad. The
optimum population density for biomass ranged from 24.6 (in
Tabriz) to 35.3 stands per square meter (Mashhad). For harvest index
it varied between 35.87 and 40.12 stands per square meter.
Abstract: This study assessed the effects of climate change on
Thai soybeans under simulation situations. Our study is focused on
temperature variability and effects on growth, yield, and genetic
changes in 2 generations of Chiang Mai 60 cultivars. In the
experiment, soybeans were exposed to 3 levels of air temperature for
8 h day-1 in an open top chamber for 2 cropping periods. Air
temperature levels in each treatment were controlled at 30-33°C (±
2.3) for LT-treatment, 33-36°C ( ± 2.4) for AT-treatment, and 36-40
°C ( ± 3.2) for HT-treatment, respectively. Positive effects of high
temperature became obvious at the maturing stage when yield
significantly increased in both cropping periods. Results in growth
indicated that shoot length at the pre-maturing stage
(V3-R3) was more positively affected by high temperature than at the
maturing stage. However, the positive effect on growth under high
temperature was not found in the 2nd cropping period. Finally, genetic
changes were examined in phenotype characteristics by the AFLPs
technique. The results showed that the high temperature factor clearly
caused genetic change in the soybeans and showed more alteration in
the 2nd cropping period.
Abstract: Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The urban climate, representing different urban morphologies across central Bangkok metropolitan area (BMA), are used to investigates the effects of both the composition and configuration of variables of urban morphology indicators on the summer diurnal range of urban climate, using correlation analyses and multiple linear regressions. Results show first indicate that approximately 92.6% of the variation in the average maximum daytime near-surface air temperature (Ta) was explained jointly by the two composition variables of urban morphology indicators including open space ratio (OSR) and floor area ratio (FAR). It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to the local climate zones (LCZs) using these urban morphology descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. Finally result found the temperature differences among zones of large separation, such as the city center could be respectively from 35.48±1.04ºC (Mean±S.D.) warmer than the outskirt of Bangkok on average for maximum daytime near surface temperature to 28.27±0.21ºC for extreme event and, can exceed as 8ºC. A spatially disaggregation of urban thermal responsiveness map would be helpful for several reasons. First, it would localize urban areas concerned by different climate behavior over summer daytime and be a good indicator of urban climate variability. Second, when overlaid with a land cover map, this map may contribute to identify possible urban management strategies to reduce heat wave effects in BMA.
Abstract: The effects of global warming on India vary from the
submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of
glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate
of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In
India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a
result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become
increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is
expected to continue.
Climate change is one of the most important global environmental
challenges, with implications for food production, water supply,
health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good
scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and
global level. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge
of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more
effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies
designed to make national and regional development paths more
sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate
policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will
affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development
goals.
A very well calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R2 =
0.9968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Khatra sub basin of the
Kangsabati River watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal,
India, in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural
activities. Evapotranspiration, Transmission Losses, Potential
Evapotranspiration and Lateral Flow to reach are evaluated from the
years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable
development of the river basin and its inhabitants.
India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as
an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation.
This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building,
networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a
commitment towards the planning, management and development of
the water resources of the Kangsabati River by presenting detailed
future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin, Khatra sub basin, over
the mentioned time period.
India-s economy and societal infrastructures are finely tuned to the
remarkable stability of the Indian monsoon, with the consequence
that vulnerability to small changes in monsoon rainfall is very high.
In 2002 the monsoon rains failed during July, causing profound loss
of agricultural production with a drop of over 3% in India-s GDP.
Neither the prolonged break in the monsoon nor the seasonal rainfall
deficit was predicted. While the general features of monsoon
variability and change are fairly well-documented, the causal
mechanisms and the role of regional ecosystems in modulating the
changes are still not clear. Current climate models are very poor at
modelling the Asian monsoon: this is a challenging and critical
region where the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and mountains all
interact. The impact of climate change on regional ecosystems is
likewise unknown. The potential for the monsoon to become more
volatile has major implications for India itself and for economies
worldwide. Knowledge of future variability of the monsoon system,
particularly in the context of global climate change, is of great
concern for regional water and food security.
The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen
projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content,
potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to
reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041-
2050.