Abstract: In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit
are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion
periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy
inference system with triangular membership function. We examine
the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of
sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the
Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms
significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period.
This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more
reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.
Abstract: A multicriteria linear programming problem with integer variables and parameterized optimality principle "from lexicographic to Slater" is considered. A situation in which initial coefficients of penalty cost functions are not fixed but may be potentially a subject to variations is studied. For any efficient solution, appropriate measures of the quality are introduced which incorporate information about variations of penalty cost function coefficients. These measures correspond to the so-called stability and accuracy functions defined earlier for efficient solutions of a generic multicriteria combinatorial optimization problem with Pareto and lexicographic optimality principles. Various properties of such functions are studied and maximum norms of perturbations for which an efficient solution preserves the property of being efficient are calculated.
Abstract: While compressing text files is useful, compressing
still image files is almost a necessity. A typical image takes up much
more storage than a typical text message and without compression
images would be extremely clumsy to store and distribute. The
amount of information required to store pictures on modern
computers is quite large in relation to the amount of bandwidth
commonly available to transmit them over the Internet and
applications. Image compression addresses the problem of reducing
the amount of data required to represent a digital image. Performance
of any image compression method can be evaluated by measuring the
root-mean-square-error & peak signal to noise ratio. The method of
image compression that will be analyzed in this paper is based on the
lossy JPEG image compression technique, the most popular
compression technique for color images. JPEG compression is able to
greatly reduce file size with minimal image degradation by throwing
away the least “important" information. In JPEG, both color
components are downsampled simultaneously, but in this paper we
will compare the results when the compression is done by
downsampling the single chroma part. In this paper we will
demonstrate more compression ratio is achieved when the
chrominance blue is downsampled as compared to downsampling the
chrominance red in JPEG compression. But the peak signal to noise
ratio is more when the chrominance red is downsampled as compared
to downsampling the chrominance blue in JPEG compression. In
particular we will use the hats.jpg as a demonstration of JPEG
compression using low pass filter and demonstrate that the image is
compressed with barely any visual differences with both methods.
Abstract: Demand of energy is increasing faster than the
generation. It leads shortage of power in all sectors of society. At
peak hours this shortage is higher. Unless we utilize energy efficient
technology, it is very difficult to minimize the shortage of energy. So
energy efficiency program and energy conservation has an important
role. Energy efficient technologies are cost intensive hence it is
always not possible to implement in country like India. In the recent
study, an educational building with operating hours from 10:00 a.m.
to 05:00 p.m. has been selected to quantify the possibility of lighting
energy conservation. As the operating hour is in daytime, integration
of daylight with artificial lighting system will definitely reduce the
lighting energy consumption. Moreover the initial investment has
been given priority and hence the existing lighting installation was
unaltered. An automatic controller has been designed which will be
operated as a function of daylight through windows and the lighting
system of the room will function accordingly. The result of the study
of integrating daylight gave quite satisfactory for visual comfort as
well as energy conservation.
Abstract: A spectrophotometric method was developed for simultaneous quantification of pseudoephedrine hydrochloride (PSE) triprolidine hydrochloride (TRI) using second derivative method (zero-crossing technique). The second derivative amplitudes of PSE and TRI were measured at 271 and 321 nm, respectively. The calibration curves were linear in the range of 200 to 1,000 g/ml for PSE and 10 to 50 g/ml for TRI. The method was validated for specificity, accuracy, precision, limit of detection and limit of quantitation. The proposed method was applied to the assaying and dissolution of PSE and TRI in commercial tablets without any chemical separation. The results were compared with those obtained by the official USP31 method and statistical tests showed that there is no significant between the methods at 95% confidence level. The proposed method is simple, rapid and suitable for the routine quality control application. KeywordsTriprolidine, Pseudoephedrine, Derivative spectrophotometry, Dissolution testing.
Abstract: A system for market identification (SMI) is presented.
The resulting representations are multivariable dynamic demand
models. The market specifics are analyzed. Appropriate models and
identification techniques are chosen. Multivariate static and dynamic
models are used to represent the market behavior. The steps of the
first stage of SMI, named data preprocessing, are mentioned. Next,
the second stage, which is the model estimation, is considered in more
details. Stepwise linear regression (SWR) is used to determine the
significant cross-effects and the orders of the model polynomials. The
estimates of the model parameters are obtained by a numerically stable
estimator. Real market data is used to analyze SMI performance.
The main conclusion is related to the applicability of multivariate
dynamic models for representation of market systems.
Abstract: The utilization of cheese whey as a fermentation
substrate to produce bio-ethanol is an effort to supply bio-ethanol
demand as a renewable energy. Like other process systems, modeling
is also required for fermentation process design, optimization and
plant operation. This research aims to study the fermentation process
of cheese whey by applying mathematics and fundamental concept in
chemical engineering, and to investigate the characteristic of the
cheese whey fermentation process. Steady state simulation results for
inlet substrate concentration of 50, 100 and 150 g/l, and various
values of hydraulic retention time, showed that the ethanol
productivity maximum values were 0.1091, 0.3163 and 0.5639 g/l.h
respectively. Those values were achieved at hydraulic retention time
of 20 hours, which was the minimum value used in this modeling.
This showed that operating reactor at low hydraulic retention time
was favorable. Model of bio-ethanol production from cheese whey
will enhance the understanding of what really happen in the
fermentation process.
Abstract: Batch adsorption of recalcitrant melanoidin using the abundantly available coal fly ash was carried out. It had low specific surface area (SBET) of 1.7287 m2/g and pore volume of 0.002245 cm3/g while qualitative evaluation of the predominant phases in it was done by XRD analysis. Colour removal efficiency was found to be dependent on various factors studied. Maximum colour removal was achieved around pH 6, whereas increasing sorbent mass from 10g/L to 200 g/L enhanced colour reduction from 25% to 86% at 298 K. Spontaneity of the process was suggested by negative Gibbs free energy while positive values for enthalpy change showed endothermic nature of the process. Non-linear optimization of error functions resulted in Freundlich and Redlich-Peterson isotherms describing sorption equilibrium data best. The coal fly ash had maximum sorption capacity of 53 mg/g and could thus be used as a low cost adsorbent in melanoidin removal.
Abstract: Despite so many years- development, the mainstream of workflow solutions from IT industries has not made ad-hoc workflow-support easy or inexpensive in MIS. Moreover, most of academic approaches tend to make their resulted BPM (Business Process Management) more complex and clumsy since they used to necessitate modeling workflow. To cope well with various ad-hoc or casual requirements on workflows while still keeping things simple and inexpensive, the author puts forth first the TSM design pattern that can provide a flexible workflow control while minimizing demand of predefinitions and modeling workflow, which introduces a generic approach for building BPM in workflow-aware MISs (Management Information Systems) with low development and running expenses.
Abstract: Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.
Abstract: In this paper delamination phenomenon in
Carbon-Epoxy laminated composite material is investigated
numerically. Arcan apparatus and specimen is modeled in ABAQUS
finite element software for different loading conditions and crack
geometries. The influence of variation of crack geometry on
interlaminar fracture stress intensity factor and energy release rate for
various mixed mode ratios and pure mode I and II was studied. Also,
correction factors for this specimen for different crack length ratios
were calculated. The finite element results indicate that for loading
angles close to pure mode-II loading, a high ratio of mode-II to
mode-I fracture is dominant and there is an opposite trend for loading
angles close to pure mode-I loading. It confirms that by varying the
loading angle of Arcan specimen pure mode-I, pure mode-II and a
wide range of mixed-mode loading conditions can be created and
tested. Also, numerical results confirm that the increase of the mode-
II loading contribution leads to an increase of fracture resistance in
the CF/PEI composite (i.e., a reduction in the total strain energy
release rate) and the increase of the crack length leads to a reduction
of interlaminar fracture resistance in the CF/PEI composite (i.e., an
increase in the total interlaminar strain energy release rate).
Abstract: This paper proposes a hybrid method for eyes localization
in facial images. The novelty is in combining techniques
that utilise colour, edge and illumination cues to improve accuracy.
The method is based on the observation that eye regions have dark
colour, high density of edges and low illumination as compared
to other parts of face. The first step in the method is to extract
connected regions from facial images using colour, edge density and
illumination cues separately. Some of the regions are then removed
by applying rules that are based on the general geometry and shape
of eyes. The remaining connected regions obtained through these
three cues are then combined in a systematic way to enhance the
identification of the candidate regions for the eyes. The geometry
and shape based rules are then applied again to further remove the
false eye regions. The proposed method was tested using images from
the PICS facial images database. The proposed method has 93.7%
and 87% accuracies for initial blobs extraction and final eye detection
respectively.
Abstract: This research aims to study the lead pollution in the air of Babylon governorate that resulted generally from vehicles exhausts in addition to industrial and human activities.Vehicles number in Babylon governorate increased significantly after year 2003 that resulted with increase in lead emissions into the air.Measurement of lead emissions was done in seven stations distributed randomly in Babylon governorate. These stations where located in Industrial (Al-Sena'ay) Quarter, 60 street (near to Babylon sewer directorate), 40 Street (near to the first intersection), Al-Hashmia city, Al-Mahaweel city, , Al- Musayab city in addition to another station in Sayd Idris village belong to Abugharaq district (Agricultural station for comparison). The measured concentrations in these stations were compared with the standard limits of Environmental Protection Agency EPA (2 μg /m3). The results of this study showed that the average of lead concentrations ,in Babylon governorate during year 2010, was (3.13 μg/m3) which was greater than standard limits (2 μg/m3). The maximum concentration of lead was (6.41 μg / m3) recorded in the Industrial (Al-Sena'ay) Quarter during April month, while the minimum concentrations was (0.36 μg / m3) recorded in the agricultural station (Abugharaq) during December month.
Abstract: The paper investigates the potential of support vector
machines and Gaussian process based regression approaches to
model the oxygen–transfer capacity from experimental data of
multiple plunging jets oxygenation systems. The results suggest the
utility of both the modeling techniques in the prediction of the
overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) from operational
parameters of multiple plunging jets oxygenation system. The
correlation coefficient root mean square error and coefficient of
determination values of 0.971, 0.002 and 0.945 respectively were
achieved by support vector machine in comparison to values of
0.960, 0.002 and 0.920 respectively achieved by Gaussian process
regression. Further, the performances of both these regression
approaches in predicting the overall volumetric oxygen transfer
coefficient was compared with the empirical relationship for multiple
plunging jets. A comparison of results suggests that support vector
machines approach works well in comparison to both empirical
relationship and Gaussian process approaches, and could successfully
be employed in modeling oxygen-transfer.
Abstract: Carbon disulfide is widely used for the production of
viscose rayon, rubber, and other organic materials and it is a
feedstock for the synthesis of sulfuric acid. The objective of this
paper is to analyze possibilities for efficient production of CS2 from
sour natural gas reformation (H2SMR) (2H2S+CH4 =CS2 +4H2) .
Also, the effect of H2S to CH4 feed ratio and reaction temperature on
carbon disulfide production is investigated numerically in a
reforming reactor. The chemical reaction model is based on an
assumed Probability Density Function (PDF) parameterized by the
mean and variance of mixture fraction and β-PDF shape. The results
show that the major factors influencing CS2 production are reactor
temperature. The yield of carbon disulfide increases with increasing
H2S to CH4 feed gas ratio (H2S/CH4≤4). Also the yield of C(s)
increases with increasing temperature until the temperature reaches
to 1000°K, and then due to increase of CS2 production and
consumption of C(s), yield of C(s) drops with further increase in the
temperature. The predicted CH4 and H2S conversion and yield of
carbon disulfide are in good agreement with result of Huang and TRaissi.
Abstract: Recent advances in wireless sensor networks have led
to many routing methods designed for energy-efficiency in wireless
sensor networks. Despite that many routing methods have been
proposed in USN, a single routing method cannot be energy-efficient
if the environment of the ubiquitous sensor network varies. We present
the controlling network access to various hosts and the services they
offer, rather than on securing them one by one with a network security
model. When ubiquitous sensor networks are deployed in hostile
environments, an adversary may compromise some sensor nodes and
use them to inject false sensing reports. False reports can lead to not
only false alarms but also the depletion of limited energy resource in
battery powered networks. The interleaved hop-by-hop authentication
scheme detects such false reports through interleaved authentication.
This paper presents a LMDD (Low energy method for data delivery)
algorithm that provides energy-efficiency by dynamically changing
protocols installed at the sensor nodes. The algorithm changes
protocols based on the output of the fuzzy logic which is the fitness
level of the protocols for the environment.
Abstract: Matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP3) is key member
of the MMP family, and is known to be present in coronary
atherosclerotic. Several studies have demonstrated that MMP-3
5A/6A polymorphism modify each transcriptional activity in allele
specific manner. We hypothesized that this polymorphism may play
a role as risk factor for development of coronary stenosis. The aim of
our study was to estimate MMP-3 (5A/6A) gene polymorphism on
interindividual variability in risk for coronary stenosis in an Iranian
population.DNA was extracted from white blood cells and genotypes
were obtained from coronary stenosis cases (n=95) and controls
(n=100) by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and restriction
fragment length polymorphism techniques. Significant differences
between cases and controls were observed for MMP3 genotype
frequencies (X2=199.305, p< 0.001); the 6A allele was less
frequently seen in the control group, compared to the disease group
(85.79 vs. 78%, 6A/6A+5A/6A vs. 5A/5A, P≤0.001). These data
imply the involvement of -1612 5A/6A polymorphism in coronary
stenosis, and suggest that probably the 6A/6A MMP-3 genotype is a
genetic susceptibility factor for coronary stenosis.
Abstract: In this paper, the effect of width and height of the
model on the earthquake response in the finite element method is
discussed. For this purpose an earth dam as a soil structure under
earthquake has been considered. Various dam-foundation models are
analyzed by Plaxis, a finite element package for solving geotechnical
problems. The results indicate considerable differences in the seismic
responses.
Abstract: Sociological models (e.g., social network analysis, small-group dynamic and gang models) have historically been used to predict the behavior of terrorist groups. However, they may not be the most appropriate method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations because the models were not initially intended to incorporate violent behavior of its subjects. Rather, models that incorporate life and death competition between subjects, i.e., models utilized by scientists to examine the behavior of wildlife populations, may provide a more accurate analysis. This paper suggests the use of biological models to attain a more robust method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations as compared to traditional methods. This study also describes how a biological population model incorporating predator-prey behavior factors can predict terrorist organizational recruitment behavior for the purpose of understanding the factors that govern the growth and decline of terrorist organizations. The Lotka-Volterra, a biological model that is based on a predator-prey relationship, is applied to a highly suggestive case study, that of the Irish Republican Army. This case study illuminates how a biological model can be utilized to understand the actions of a terrorist organization.
Abstract: A total of fourteen slab-edge beam-column connection specimens were tested gradually to failure under the effect of simultaneous action of shear force and moment. The objective was to investigate the influence of some parameters thought to be important on the behavior and strength of slab-column connections with edge beams encountered in flat slab flooring and roofing systems. The parameters included the existence and strength of edge beam, depth and width of edge beam, steel reinforcement ratio of slab, ratio of moment to shear force, and the existence of openings in the region next to the column.
Results obtained demonstrated the importance of the studied parameters on the strength and behavior of slab-column connections with edge beams.