Abstract: Recent investigations have demonstrated the global
sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study, climate
changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of
Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be
investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output
data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under
climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different
variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation
with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy
among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using
stepwise regression. One of models (Discrete Wavelet artificial
Neural Network) was developed to explore the relationship between
climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet
was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into
different components and then ANN was used to relate the
disaggregated components of predictors and input parameters to each
other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario
A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea
level rise is among 90 t0 105 cm. Furthermore, the result showed a
significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate
change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas
management.
Abstract: A system for market identification (SMI) is presented.
The resulting representations are multivariable dynamic demand
models. The market specifics are analyzed. Appropriate models and
identification techniques are chosen. Multivariate static and dynamic
models are used to represent the market behavior. The steps of the
first stage of SMI, named data preprocessing, are mentioned. Next,
the second stage, which is the model estimation, is considered in more
details. Stepwise linear regression (SWR) is used to determine the
significant cross-effects and the orders of the model polynomials. The
estimates of the model parameters are obtained by a numerically stable
estimator. Real market data is used to analyze SMI performance.
The main conclusion is related to the applicability of multivariate
dynamic models for representation of market systems.