Abstract: This paper presents a conceptual model of agreement
options on negotiation support for civil engineering decision. The
negotiation support facilitates the solving of group choice decision
making problems in civil engineering decision to reduce the impact
of mud volcano disaster in Sidoarjo, Indonesia. The approach based
on application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method for
multi criteria decision on three level of decision hierarchy.
Decisions for reducing impact is very complicated since many
parties involved in a critical time. Where a number of stakeholders
are involved in choosing a single alternative from a set of solution
alternatives, there are different concern caused by differing
stakeholder preferences, experiences, and background. Therefore, a
group choice decision support is required to enable each stakeholder
to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into
negotiation with the other stakeholders. Such civil engineering
solutions as alternatives are referred to as agreement options that are
determined by identifying the possible stakeholder choice, followed
by determining the optimal solution for each group of stakeholder.
Determination of the optimal solution is based on a game theory
model of n-person general sum game with complete information that
involves forming coalitions among stakeholders.
Abstract: Disposal of health-care waste (HCW) is considered as
an important environmental problem especially in large cities.
Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques are apt to deal
with quantitative and qualitative considerations of the health-care
waste management (HCWM) problems. This research proposes a
fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making approach with a multilevel
hierarchical structure including qualitative as well as
quantitative performance attributes for evaluating HCW disposal
alternatives for Istanbul. Using the entropy weighting method,
objective weights as well as subjective weights are taken into account
to determine the importance weighting of quantitative performance
attributes. The results obtained using the proposed methodology are
thoroughly analyzed.
Abstract: Supplier selection, in real situation, is affected by
several qualitative and quantitative factors and is one of the most
important activities of purchasing department. Since at the time of
evaluating suppliers against the criteria or factors, decision makers
(DMS) do not have precise, exact and complete information, supplier
selection becomes more difficult. In this case, Grey theory helps us
to deal with this problem of uncertainty. Here, we apply Technique
for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)
method to evaluate and select the best supplier by using interval
fuzzy numbers. Through this article, we compare TOPSIS with some
other approaches and afterward demonstrate that the concept of
TOPSIS is very important for ranking and selecting right supplier.
Abstract: The wisest economic decision of United States in the
20th century was establishing the favorable international monetary
system, and capturing the leadership position in it. This decision gave
economic hegemony to the US for the next more than 7 decades. The
continuation of this hegemony till the next decade seems difficult as
the US economy is under continuous streams of recessions since
2007. On the other hand, Chinese economy is progressing with a
very fast speed and is estimated to pass the US economy till 2025, in
various aspects. Will the US be able to continue its leadership in the
IMS? Will China replace US in the international monetary system?
The answers to these questions have been explored by comparing the
economic competitiveness of US and China, with respect to each
other. The paper concludes that the change in global economic
environment will compel US to share the leadership of international
monetary system with China. This sharing will solve most problems
of the current IMS, but will also birth some new problems.
Abstract: Today, the preferences and participation of the TD groups such as the elderly and disabled is still lacking in decision-making of transportation planning, and their reactions to certain type of policies are not well known. Thus, a clear methodology is needed. This study aimed to develop a method to extract the preferences of the disabled to be used in the policy-making stage that can also guide to future estimations. The method utilizes the combination of cluster analysis and data filtering using the data of the Arao city (Japan). The method is a process that follows: defining the TD group by the cluster analysis tool, their travel preferences in tabular form from the household surveys by policy variableimpact pairs, zones, and by trip purposes, and the final outcome is the preference probabilities of the disabled. The preferences vary by trip purpose; for the work trips, accessibility and transit system quality policies with the accompanying impacts of modal shifts towards public mode use as well as the decreasing travel costs, and the trip rate increase; for the social trips, the same accessibility and transit system policies leading to the same mode shift impact, together with the travel quality policy area leading to trip rate increase. These results explain the policies to focus and can be used in scenario generation in models, or any other planning purpose as decision support tool.
Abstract: Innovation is more important in any companies.
However, it is not easy to measure the innovation performance
correctly. Patent is one of measuring index nowadays. This paper
wants to purpose an approach for valuing patents based on market
reaction to patent infringement litigations. The interesting
phenomenon is found from collection of patent infringement litigation
events. That is if any patent litigation event occurs the stock value will
follow changing. The plaintiffs- stock value raises some percentage.
According to this interesting phenomenon, the relationship between
patent litigation and stock value is tested and verified. And then, the
stock value variation is used to deduce the infringed patents- value.
The purpose of this study is providing another concept model to
evaluate the infringed patents. This study can provide a decision assist
system to help drafting patent litigation strategy and determine the
technology value
Abstract: The latest Geographic Information System (GIS)
technology makes it possible to administer the spatial components of
daily “business object," in the corporate database, and apply suitable
geographic analysis efficiently in a desktop-focused application. We
can use wireless internet technology for transfer process in spatial
data from server to client or vice versa. However, the problem in
wireless Internet is system bottlenecks that can make the process of
transferring data not efficient. The reason is large amount of spatial
data. Optimization in the process of transferring and retrieving data,
however, is an essential issue that must be considered. Appropriate
decision to choose between R-tree and Quadtree spatial data indexing
method can optimize the process. With the rapid proliferation of
these databases in the past decade, extensive research has been
conducted on the design of efficient data structures to enable fast
spatial searching. Commercial database vendors like Oracle have also
started implementing these spatial indexing to cater to the large and
diverse GIS. This paper focuses on the decisions to choose R-tree
and quadtree spatial indexing using Oracle spatial database in mobile
GIS application. From our research condition, the result of using
Quadtree and R-tree spatial data indexing method in one single
spatial database can save the time until 42.5%.
Abstract: Typical Intelligent Decision Support System is 4-based, its design composes of Data Warehouse, Online Analytical Processing, Data Mining and Decision Supporting based on models, which is called Decision Support System Based on Data Warehouse (DSSBDW). This way takes ETL,OLAP and DM as its implementing means, and integrates traditional model-driving DSS and data-driving DSS into a whole. For this kind of problem, this paper analyzes the DSSBDW architecture and DW model, and discusses the following key issues: ETL designing and Realization; metadata managing technology using XML; SQL implementing, optimizing performance, data mapping in OLAP; lastly, it illustrates the designing principle and method of DW in DSSBDW.
Abstract: The brain MR imaging-based clinical research and analysis system were specifically built and the development for a large-scale data was targeted. We used the general clinical data available for building large-scale data. Registration period for the selection of the lesion ROI and the region growing algorithm was used and the Mesh-warp algorithm for matching was implemented. The accuracy of the matching errors was modified individually. Also, the large ROI research data can accumulate by our developed compression method. In this way, the correctly decision criteria to the research result was suggested. The experimental groups were age, sex, MR type, patient ID and smoking which can easily be queries. The result data was visualized of the overlapped images by a color table. Its data was calculated by the statistical package. The evaluation for the utilization of this system in the chronic ischemic damage in the area has done from patients with the acute cerebral infarction. This is the cause of neurologic disability index location in the center portion of the lateral ventricle facing. The corona radiate was found in the position. Finally, the system reliability was measured both inter-user and intra-user registering correlation.
Abstract: Nowadays, obtaining traditional statistics and reports
is not adequate for the needs of organizational managers. The
managers need to analyze and to transform the raw data into
knowledge in the world filled with information. Therefore in this
regard various processes have been developed. In the meantime the
artificial intelligence-based processes are used and the new topics
such as business intelligence and knowledge discovery have
emerged. In the current paper it is sought to study the business
intelligence and its applications in the organizations.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes
requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work
established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a
suitable tool for developing such models. The current research
focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction
error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in
training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an
observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in
each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used
in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at
hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model,
consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters,
was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and
calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks
for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms,
up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of
processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced
average prediction error compared to previous research across all
horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or
12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12
hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively,
improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these
horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different
initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These
results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider
instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial
weights to establish preferred model parameters.
Abstract: There are many views on how human decision makers behave. In this work, the Justices of the United States Supreme Court will be viewed in terms of constrained maximization and cognitivecybernetic theory. This paper will integrate research in such fields as law, political science, psychology, economics and decision making theory. It will be argued that due to its heavy workload, the Supreme Court is forced to make decisions in a boundedly rational manner. The ideas and theory put forward here will be tested in the area of the Court’s decisions involving religion. Therefore, the cases involving the U.S. Constitution’s Free Exercise Clause and Establishment Clause will be analyzed. Also, variables such as the U.S. government’s involvement in these cases will be considered. The years to be studied will be 1987-2011.
Abstract: During last decades, worldwide researchers dedicated
efforts to develop machine-based seismic Early Warning systems,
aiming at reducing the huge human losses and economic damages.
The elaboration time of seismic waveforms is to be reduced in order
to increase the time interval available for the activation of safety
measures. This paper suggests a Data Mining model able to correctly
and quickly estimate dangerousness of the running seismic event.
Several thousand seismic recordings of Japanese and Italian
earthquakes were analyzed and a model was obtained by means of a
Bayesian Network (BN), which was tested just over the first
recordings of seismic events in order to reduce the decision time and
the test results were very satisfactory.
The model was integrated within an Early Warning System
prototype able to collect and elaborate data from a seismic sensor
network, estimate the dangerousness of the running earthquake and
take the decision of activating the warning promptly.
Abstract: Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.
Abstract: A business case is a proposal for an investment
initiative to satisfy business and functional requirements. The
business case provides the foundation for tactical decision making
and technology risk management. It helps to clarify how the
organization will use its resources in the best way by providing
justification for investment of resources. This paper describes how
simulation was used for business case benefits and return on
investment for the procurement of 8 production machines. With
investment costs of about 4.7 million dollars and annual operating
costs of about 1.3 million, we needed to determine if the machines
would provide enough cost savings and cost avoidance. We
constructed a model of the existing factory environment consisting of
8 machines and subsequently, we conducted average day simulations
with light and heavy volumes to facilitate planning decisions
required to be documented and substantiated in the business case.
Abstract: The information systems with incomplete attribute
values and fuzzy decisions commonly exist in practical problems. On
the base of the notion of variable precision rough set model for
incomplete information system and the rough set model for
incomplete and fuzzy decision information system, the variable rough
set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system is
constructed, which is the generalization of the variable precision
rough set model for incomplete information system and that of rough
set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system. The
knowledge reduction and heuristic algorithm, built on the method and
theory of precision reduction, are proposed.
Abstract: In two studies we challenged the well consolidated
position in regret literature according to which the necessary
condition for the emergence of regret is a bad outcome ensuing from
free decisions. Without free choice, and, consequently, personal
responsibility, other emotions, such as disappointment, but not regret,
are supposed to be elicited. In our opinion, a main source of regret is
being obliged by circumstance out of our control to chose an
undesired option. We tested the hypothesis that regret resulting from
a forced choice is more intense than regret derived from a free choice
and that the outcome affects the latter, not the former. Besides, we
investigated whether two other variables – the perception of the level
of freedom of the choice and the choice justifiability – mediated the
relationships between choice and regret, as well as the other four
emotions we examined: satisfaction, anger toward oneself,
disappointment, anger towards circumstances. The two studies were
based on the scenario methodology and implied a 2 x 2 (choice x
outcome) between design. In the first study the foreseen short-term
effects of the choice were assessed; in the second study the
experienced long-term effects of the choice were assessed. In each
study 160 students of the Second University of Naples participated.
Results largely corroborated our hypotheses. They were discussed in
the light of the main theories on regret and decision making.
Abstract: Location selection is one of the most important
decision making process which requires to consider several criteria
based on the mission and the strategy. This study-s object is to
provide a decision support model in order to help the bank selecting
the most appropriate location for a bank-s branch considering a case
study in Turkey. The object of the bank is to select the most
appropriate city for opening a branch among six alternatives in the
South-Eastern of Turkey. The model in this study was consisted of
five main criteria which are Demographic, Socio-Economic, Sectoral
Employment, Banking and Trade Potential and twenty one subcriteria
which represent the bank-s mission and strategy. Because of
the multi-criteria structure of the problem and the fuzziness in the
comparisons of the criteria, fuzzy AHP is used and for the ranking of
the alternatives, TOPSIS method is used.
Abstract: A method is presented for obtaining the error probability for block codes. The method is based on the eigenvalueeigenvector properties of the code correlation matrix. It is found that under a unary transformation and for an additive white Gaussian noise environment, the performance evaluation of a block code becomes a one-dimensional problem in which only one eigenvalue and its corresponding eigenvector are needed in the computation. The obtained error rate results show remarkable agreement between simulations and analysis.
Abstract: Scene interpretation systems need to match (often ambiguous)
low-level input data to concepts from a high-level ontology.
In many domains, these decisions are uncertain and benefit greatly
from proper context. This paper demonstrates the use of decision
trees for estimating class probabilities for regions described by feature
vectors, and shows how context can be introduced in order to improve
the matching performance.