Abstract: In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).
Abstract: Nowadays the construction industry is growing specially among developing counties. Iran also has a critical role in these industries in terms of workers disorders. Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) assign 7% of the whole diseases in the society, which make some limitations. One of the main factors, which are ended to WMSDs, is awkward posture. Steel bar bending is considered as one of the prominent performance among construction workers. In this case study we conducted to find the major tasks of bar benders and the most important related risk factors. This study was carried out among twenty workers (18-45 years) as our volunteer samples in some construction sites with less than 6 floors in two regions of Tehran municipality. The data was gathered through in depth observation, interview and questionnaire. Also postural analysis was done by OWAS. In another part of study we used NMQ for gathering some data about psychosocial effects of work related disorders. Our findings show that 64% of workers were not aware of work risks, also about 59% of workers had troubles in their wrists, hands, and especially among workers who worked in steel bar bending. In 46% cases low back pain were prevalence. Considering with gathered data and results, awkward postures and long term tasks and its duration are known as the main risk factors in WMSDs among construction workers, so work-rest schedule and also tools design should be considered to make an ergonomic condition for the mentioned workers.
Abstract: A comprehensive discussion of feasible strategies for sustainable energy supply is urgently needed to achieve a turnaround of the current energy situation. The necessary fundamentals required for the development of a long term energy vision are lacking to a great extent due to the absence of reasonable long term scenarios that fulfill the requirements of climate protection and sustainable energy use. The contribution of the study is based on a search for sustainable energy paths in the long run for Austria. The analysis makes use of secondary data predominantly. The measures developed to avoid CO2 emissions and other ecological risk factors vary to a great extent among all economic sectors. This is shown by the calculation of CO2 cost of abatement curves. In this study it is demonstrated that the most effective technical measures with the lowest CO2 abatement costs yield solutions to the current energy problems. Various scenarios are presented concerning the question how the technological and environmental options for a sustainable energy system for Austria could look like in the long run. It is shown how sustainable energy can be supplied even with today-s technological knowledge and options available. The scenarios developed include an evaluation of the economic costs and ecological impacts. The results are not only applicable to Austria but demonstrate feasible and cost efficient ways towards a sustainable future.
Abstract: Recently, the health of retired National Football
League players, particularly lineman has been investigated. A
number of studies have reported increased cardiometabolic risk,
premature cardiovascular disease and incidence of type 2 diabetes.
Rugby union players have somatotypes very similar to National
Football League players which suggests that rugby players may have
similar health risks. The International Golden Oldies World Rugby
Festival (GORF) provided a unique opportunity to investigate the
demographics of veteran rugby players. METHODOLOGIES: A
cross-sectional, observational study was completed using an online
web-based questionnaire that consisted of medical history and
physiological measures. Data analysis was completed using a one
sample t-test (50yrs) and Chi-square test. RESULTS:
A total of 216 veteran rugby competitors (response rate = 6.8%)
representing 10 countries, aged 35-72 yrs (mean 51.2, S.D. ±8.0),
participated in the online survey. As a group, the incidence of current
smokers was low at 8.8% (avg 72.4 cigs/wk) whilst the percentage
consuming alcohol was high (93.1% (avg 11.2 drinks/wk).
Competitors reported the following top six chronic
diseases/disorders; hypertension (18.6%), arthritis (OA/RA, 11.5%),
asthma (9.3%), hyperlipidemia (8.2%), diabetes (all types, 7.5%) and
gout (6%), there were significant differences between groups with
regard to cancer (all types) and migraines. When compared to the
Australian general population (Australian Bureau of Statistics data,
n=18,000), GORF competitors had a significantly lower incidence of
anxiety (p
Abstract: Background: Blunt aortic trauma (BAT) includes
various morphological changes that occur during deceleration,
acceleration and/or body compression in traffic accidents. The
various forms of BAT, from limited laceration of the intima to
complete transection of the aorta, depends on the force acting on the
vessel wall and the tolerance of the aorta to injury. The force depends
on the change in velocity, the dynamics of the accident and of the
seating position in the car. Tolerance to aortic injury depends on the
anatomy, histological structure and pathomorphological alterations
due to aging or disease of the aortic wall.
An overview of the literature and medical documentation reveals
that different terms are used to describe certain forms of BAT, which
can lead to misinterpretation of findings or diagnoses. We therefore,
propose a classification that would enable uniform systematic
screening of all forms of BAT. We have classified BAT into three
morphologycal types: TYPE I (intramural), TYPE II (transmural) and
TYPE III (multiple) aortic ruptures with appropriate subtypes.
Methods: All car accident casualties examined at the Institute of
Forensic Medicine from 2001 to 2009 were included in this
retrospective study. Autopsy reports were used to determine the
occurrence of each morphological type of BAT in deceased drivers,
front seat passengers and other passengers in cars and to define the
morphology of BAT in relation to the accident dynamics and the age
of the fatalities.
Results: A total of 391 fatalities in car accidents were included in
the study. TYPE I, TYPE II and TYPE III BAT were observed in
10,9%, 55,6% and 33,5%, respectively. The incidence of BAT in
drivers, front seat and other passengers was 36,7%, 43,1% and
28,6%, respectively. In frontal collisions, the incidence of BAT was
32,7%, in lateral collisions 54,2%, and in other traffic accidents
29,3%. The average age of fatalities with BAT was 42,8 years and of
those without BAT 39,1 years.
Conclusion: Identification and early recognition of the risk factors
of BAT following a traffic accident is crucial for successful treatment
of patients with BAT. Front seat passengers over 50 years of age who
have been injured in a lateral collision are the most at risk of BAT.
Abstract: Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a severe
cardiovascular disorder characterized by progressive systolic
dysfunction due to cardiac chamber dilatation and inefficient
myocardial contractility often leading to chronic heart failure.
Recently, a genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on DCM
indicate that the ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 single nucleotide
polymorphism is associated with DCM. The aim of the study was to
identify the distribution of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism
in 50 Slovak patients with DCM and 80 healthy control subjects
using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Risk factors
detected at baseline in each group included age, sex, body mass
index, smoking status, diabetes and blood pressure. The mean age of
patients with DCM was 52.9±6.3 years; the mean age of individuals
in control group was 50.3±8.9 years. The distribution of investigated
genotypes of rs10927875 polymorphism within ZBTB17 gene in the
cohort of Slovak patients with DCM was as follows: CC (38.8%), CT
(55.1%), TT (6.1%), in controls: CC (43.8%), CT (51.2%), TT
(5.0%). The risk allele T was more common among the patients with
dilated cardiomyopathy than in normal controls (33.7% versus
30.6%). The differences in genotype or allele frequencies of ZBTB17
gene rs10927875 polymorphism were not statistically significant
(p=0.6908; p=0.6098). The results of this study suggest that ZBTB17
gene rs10927875 polymorphism may be a risk factor for
susceptibility to DCM in Slovak patients with DCM. Studies of
numerous files and additional functional investigations are needed to
fully understand the roles of genetic associations.
Abstract: This paper suggests an algorithm for the evaluation
and selection of suppliers. At the beginning, all the needed materials and services used by the organization were identified and categorized
with regard to their nature by ABC method. Afterwards, in order to reduce risk factors and maximize the organization's profit, purchase strategies were determined. Then, appropriate criteria were identified for primary evaluation of suppliers applying to the organization. The output of this stage was a list of suppliers qualified by the organization to participate in its tenders. Subsequently, considering a material in particular, appropriate criteria on the ordering of the
mentioned material were determined, taking into account the particular materials' specifications as well as the organization's needs. Finally, for the purpose of validation and verification of the
proposed model, it was applied to Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), the qualified suppliers of this Company are ranked by the means of a Hierarchical Fuzzy TOPSIS method. The obtained results
show that the proposed algorithm is quite effective, efficient and easy to apply.
Abstract: Risk management is an essential fraction of project management, which plays a significant role in project success. Many failures associated with Web projects are the consequences of poor awareness of the risks involved and lack of process models that can serve as a guideline for the development of Web based applications. To circumvent this problem, contemporary process models have been devised for the development of conventional software. This paper introduces the WPRiMA (Web Project Risk Management Assessment) as the tool, which is used to implement RIAP, the risk identification architecture pattern model, which focuses upon the data from the proprietor-s and vendor-s perspectives. The paper also illustrates how WPRiMA tool works and how it can be used to calculate the risk level for a given Web project, to generate recommendations in order to facilitate risk avoidance in a project, and to improve the prospects of early risk management.
Abstract: Information Technology (IT) projects are always
accompanied by various risks and because of high rate of failure in
such projects, managing risks in order to neutralize or at least
decrease their effects on the success of the project is strongly
essential. In this paper, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is
exploited as a means of risk evaluation methodology to prioritize and
organize risk factors faced in IT projects. A real case of IT projects, a
project of design and implementation of an integrated information
system in a vehicle producing company in Iran is studied. Related
risk factors are identified and then expert qualitative judgments about
these factors are acquired. Translating these judgments to fuzzy
numbers and using them as an input to FAHP, risk factors are then
ranked and prioritized by FAHP in order to make project managers
aware of more important risks and enable them to adopt suitable
measures to deal with these highly devastative risks.
Abstract: The healthcare environment is generally perceived as
being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack
of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends
in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from
application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this
study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant
patterns from the Coronary Heart Disease warehouses for heart
attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause
of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose,
we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the
reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique
associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to
validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to
identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large
amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on
the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts- knowledge in
this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the
disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge
relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is
developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The
performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based
on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.
Abstract: Human immunodeficiency virus infection and
acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is a global pandemic with
cases reporting from virtually every country and continues to be a
common infection in developing country like India.
Microalbuminuria is a manifestation of human immunodeficiency
virus associated nephropathy. Therefore, microalbuminuria may be
an early marker of human immunodeficiency virus associated
nephropathy, and screening for its presence may be beneficial. A
strikingly high prevalence of microalbuminuria among human
immunodeficiency virus infected patients has been described in
various studies. Risk factors for clinically significant proteinuria
include African - American race, higher human immunodeficiency
virus ribonucleic acid level and lower CD4 lymphocyte count. The
cardiovascular risk factors of increased systolic blood pressure and
increase fasting blood sugar level are strongly associated with
microalbuminuria in human immunodeficiency virus patient. These
results suggest that microalbuminuria may be a sign of current
endothelial dysfunction and micro-vascular disease and there is
substantial risk of future cardiovascular disease events. Positive
contributing factors include early kidney disease such as human
immunodeficiency virus associated nephropathy, a marker of end
organ damage related to co morbidities of diabetes or hypertension,
or more diffuse endothelial cells dysfunction. Nevertheless after
adjustment for non human immunodeficiency virus factors, human
immunodeficiency virus itself is a major risk factor. The presence of
human immunodeficiency virus infection is independent risk to
develop microalbuminuria in human immunodeficiency virus patient.
Cardiovascular risk factors appeared to be stronger predictors of
microalbuminuria than markers of human immunodeficiency virus
severity person with human immunodeficiency virus infection and
microalbuminuria therefore appear to potentially bear the burden of
two separate damage related to known vascular end organ damage
related to know vascular risk factors, and human immunodeficiency
virus specific processes such as the direct viral infection of kidney
cells.The higher prevalence of microalbuminuria among the human
immunodeficiency virus infected could be harbinger of future
increased risks of both kidney and cardiovascular disease. Further
study defining the prognostic significance of microalbuminuria
among human immunodeficiency virus infected persons will be
essential. Microalbuminuria seems to be a predictor of cardiovascular
disease in diabetic and non diabetic subjects, hence it can also be
used for early detection of micro vascular disease in human
immunodeficiency virus positive patients, thus can help to diagnose
the disease at the earliest.
Abstract: Recently, the health of retired National Football
League players, particularly lineman has been investigated. A number of studies have reported increased cardiometabolic risk, premature ardiovascular disease and incidence of type 2 diabetes. Rugby union players have somatotypes very similar
to National Football league players which suggest that rugby players may have similar health risks. The International Golden Oldies World Rugby Festival (GORF) provided a
unique opportunity to investigate the demographics of veteran rugby players. METHODOLOGIES: A cross-sectional, observational study was completed using an online web-based
questionnaire that consisted of medical history and
physiological measures. Data analysis was completed using a one sample t-test (50yrs) and Chi-square test. RESULTS: A total of 216 veteran rugby competitors
(response rate = 6.8%) representing 10 countries, aged 35-72 yrs (mean 51.2, S.D. ±8.0), participated in the online survey. As a group, the incidence of current smokers was low at 8.8%
(avg 72.4 cigs/wk) whilst the percentage consuming alcohol
was high (93.1% (avg 11.2 drinks/wk). Competitors reported
the following top six chronic diseases/disorders; hypertension
(18.6%), arthritis (OA/RA, 11.5%), asthma (9.3%),
hyperlipidemia (8.2%), diabetes (all types, 7.5%) and gout (6%), there were significant differences between groups with
regard to cancer (all types) and migraines. When compared to
the Australian general population (Australian Bureau of Statistics data, n=18,000), GORF competitors had a
Climstein Mike, Walsh Joe (corresponding author) and Burke Stephen
School of Exercise Science, Australian Catholic University, 25A Barker Road,
Strathfield, Sydney, NSW, 2016, Australia (e-mail:
[email protected], [email protected],
[email protected]).
John Best is with Orthosports, 160 Belmore Rd., Randwick, Sydney,NSW
2031, Australia (e-mail: [email protected]).
Heazlewood, Ian Timothy is with School of Environmental and Life
Sciences, Faculty Education, Health and Science, Charles Darwin University,
Precinct Yellow Building 2, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909, Australia
(e-mail: [email protected]).
Kettunen Jyrki Arcada University of Applied Sciences, Jan-Magnus
Janssonin aukio 1, FI-00550, Helsinki, Finland (e-mail:
[email protected]).
Adams Kent is with California State University Monterey Bay, Kinesiology Department, 100 Campus Center, Seaside, CA., 93955, USA (email: [email protected]).
DeBeliso Mark is with Department of Physical Education and Human
Performance, Southern Utah University, 351 West University Blvd, Cedar
City, Utah, USA (e-mail: [email protected]).
significantly lower incidence of anxiety (p
Abstract: This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.
Abstract: An epidemiological cross sectional study was
undertaken in Yaoundé in 2002 and updated in 2005. Focused on
health within the city, the objectives were to measure diarrheal
prevalence and to identify the risk factors associated with them.
Results of microbiological examinations have revealed an urban
average prevalence rate of 14.5%. Access to basic services in the
living environment appears to be an important risk factor for
diarrheas. Statistical and spatial analyses conducted have revealed
that prevalence of diarrheal diseases vary among the two main types
of settlement (informal and planned). More importantly, this study
shows that, diarrhea prevalence rates (notably bacterial and parasitic
diarrheas) vary according to the sub- category of settlements. The
study draws a number of theoretical and policy implications for
researchers and policy decision makers.
Abstract: Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI),
using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), is a proposed technique to identify
not only the risk factors but also the causes of the appearance of the
risk factors in software development life cycle. The method is based
on analyzing the probable causes of software development failures
before they become problems and adversely affect a project. It uses
Fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the probability of a particular
system level failures that are defined by A Taxonomy for Sources of
Software Development Risk to deduce failure analysis in which an
undesired state of a system by using Boolean logic to combine a
series of lower-level events. The major purpose of this paper is to use
the probabilistic calculations of Fault Tree Analysis approach to
determine all possible causes that lead to software development risk
occurrence
Abstract: The medical studies often require different methods
for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the
database-s designing and filling with information. One common
task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown
methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and
to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods
are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the
binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical
principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the
analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics
over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289
psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences).
Finally, we will make some observations about the relation
between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary
logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of
Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the
binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk
factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being
always true.
Abstract: In this paper, a heuristic method for simultaneous
rescue robot path-planning and mission scheduling is introduced
based on project management techniques, multi criteria decision
making and artificial potential fields path-planning. Groups of
injured people are trapped in a disastrous situation. These people are
categorized into several groups based on the severity of their
situation. A rescue robot, whose ultimate objective is reaching
injured groups and providing preliminary aid for them through a path
with minimum risk, has to perform certain tasks on its way towards
targets before the arrival of rescue team. A decision value is assigned
to each target based on the whole degree of satisfaction of the criteria
and duties of the robot toward the target and the importance of
rescuing each target based on their category and the number of
injured people. The resulted decision value defines the strength of the
attractive potential field of each target. Dangerous environmental
parameters are defined as obstacles whose risk determines the
strength of the repulsive potential field of each obstacle. Moreover,
negative and positive energies are assigned to the targets and
obstacles, which are variable with respects to the factors involved.
The simulation results show that the generated path for two cases
studies with certain differences in environmental conditions and
other risk factors differ considerably.
Abstract: Data Mining aims at discovering knowledge out of
data and presenting it in a form that is easily comprehensible to
humans. One of the useful applications in Egypt is the Cancer
management, especially the management of Acute Lymphoblastic
Leukemia or ALL, which is the most common type of cancer in
children.
This paper discusses the process of designing a prototype that can
help in the management of childhood ALL, which has a great
significance in the health care field. Besides, it has a social impact
on decreasing the rate of infection in children in Egypt. It also
provides valubale information about the distribution and
segmentation of ALL in Egypt, which may be linked to the possible
risk factors.
Undirected Knowledge Discovery is used since, in the case of this
research project, there is no target field as the data provided is
mainly subjective. This is done in order to quantify the subjective
variables. Therefore, the computer will be asked to identify
significant patterns in the provided medical data about ALL. This
may be achieved through collecting the data necessary for the
system, determimng the data mining technique to be used for the
system, and choosing the most suitable implementation tool for the
domain.
The research makes use of a data mining tool, Clementine, so as to
apply Decision Trees technique. We feed it with data extracted from
real-life cases taken from specialized Cancer Institutes. Relevant
medical cases details such as patient medical history and diagnosis
are analyzed, classified, and clustered in order to improve the disease
management.
Abstract: Chest pain is one of the most prevalent complaints
among adults that cause the people to attend to medical centers. The
aim was to determine the prevalence and risk factors of chest pain
among over 30 years old people in Tehran. In this cross-sectional
study, 787 adults took part from Apr 2005 until Apr 2006. The
sampling method was random cluster sampling and there were 25
clusters. In each cluster, interviews were performed with 32 over 30
years old, people lived in those houses. In cases with chest pain, extra
questions asked. The prevalence of CP was 9% (71 cases). Of them
21 cases (6.5%) were in 41-60 year age ranges and the remainders
were over 61 year old. 19 cases (26.8%) mentioned CP in resting
state and all of the cases had exertion onset CP. The CP duration was
10 minutes or less in all of the cases and in most of them (84.5%), the
location of pain mentioned left anterior part of chest, left anterior part
of sternum and or left arm. There was positive history of myocardial
infarction in 12 cases (17%). There was significant relation between
CP and age, sex and between history of myocardial infarction and
marital state of study people. Our results are similar to other studies-
results in most parts, however it is necessary to perform
supplementary tests and follow up studies to differentiate between
cardiac and non-cardiac CP exactly.
Abstract: In recent years, copulas have become very popular in
financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in
modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared
to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson.
However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in
order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure
and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization
heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to
tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models
in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely
on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of
more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas.
Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides
more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM
approach.