Abstract: The paper deals with the possibilities of modelling
vapour propagation of explosive substances in the FLUENT
software. With regard to very low tensions of explosive substance
vapours the experiment has been verified as exemplified by
mononitrotoluene. Either constant or time variable meteorological
conditions have been used for calculation. Further, it has been
verified that the eluent source may be time-dependent and may reflect
a real situation or the liberation rate may be constant. The execution
of the experiment as well as evaluation were clear and it could also
be used for modelling vapour and aerosol propagation of selected
explosive substances in the atmospheric boundary layer.
Abstract: Drought is one of the most damaging climate-related
hazards, it is generally considered as a prolonged absence of
precipitation. This normal and recurring climate phenomenon had
plagued civilization throughout history because of the negative
impacts on economical, environmental and social sectors. Drought
characteristics are thus recognized as important factors in water
resources planning and management. The purpose of this study is to
detect the changes in drought frequency, persistence and severity
in the Ruhr river basin. The frequency of drought events was
calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Used
data are daily precipitation records from seven meteorological
stations covering the period 1961-2007. The main benefit of the
application of this index is its versatility, only rainfall data is required
to deliver five major dimensions of a drought : duration, intensity,
severity, magnitude, and frequency. Furthermore, drought can be
calculated in different time steps. In this study SPI was calculated for
1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. Several drought events were detected
in the covered period, these events contain mild, moderate and severe
droughts. Also positive and negative trends in the SPI values were
observed.
Abstract: Extensive rainfall disaggregation approaches have been developed and applied in climate change impact studies such as flood risk assessment and urban storm water management.In this study, five rainfall models that were capable ofdisaggregating daily rainfall data into hourly one were investigated for the rainfall record in theChangi Airport, Singapore. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of hourly rainfall in Singapore, and (ii) to evaluate the performance of variousdisaggregation models. The used models included: (i) Rectangular pulse Poisson model (RPPM), (ii) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular pulse model (BLRPM), (iii) Bartlett-Lewis model with 2 cell types (BL2C), (iv) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular with cell depth distribution dependent on duration (BLRD), and (v) Neyman-Scott Rectangular pulse model (NSRPM). All of these models werefitted using hourly rainfall data ranging from 1980 to 2005 (which was obtained from Changimeteorological station).The study results indicated that the weight scheme of inversely proportional variance could deliver more accurateoutputs for fitting rainfall patterns in tropical areas, and BLRPM performedrelatively better than other disaggregation models.
Abstract: The problems associated with wind predictions of
WAsP model in complex terrain are already the target of several
studies in the last decade. In this paper, the influence of surrounding
orography on accuracy of wind data analysis of a train is
investigated. For the case study, a site with complex surrounding
orography is considered. This site is located in Manjil, one of the
windiest cities of Iran. For having precise evaluation of wind regime
in the site, one-year wind data measurements from two metrological
masts are used. To validate the obtained results from WAsP, the
cross prediction between each mast is performed. The analysis
reveals that WAsP model can estimate the wind speed behavior
accurately. In addition, results show that this software can be used
for predicting the wind regime in flat sites with complex surrounding
orography.
Abstract: The use of contour strips of perennial vegetation with
bio-fuel potential can improve surface water quality by reducing
NO3-N and sediment outflow from cropland to surface water-bodies.
It also has economic benefits of producing ethanol. In this study,
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to
a watershed in Iowa, USA to examine the effectiveness of contour
strips of switch grass in reducing the NO3-N outflows from crop
fields to rivers or lakes. Numerical experiments were conducted to
identify potential subbasins in the watershed that have high water
quality impact, and to examine the effects of strip size on NO3-N
reduction under various meteorological conditions, i.e. dry, average
and wet years. Useful information was obtained for the evaluation of
economic feasibility of growing switch grass for bio-fuel in contour
strips. The results can assist in cost-benefit analysis and decisionmaking
in best management practices for environmental protection.
Abstract: This paper focuses on assessment of air pollution in Umm-Alhyman, Kuwait, which is located south to oil refineries, power station, oil field, and highways. The measurements were made over a period of four days in March and July in 2001, 2004, and 2008. The measured pollutants included methanated and nonmethanated hydrocarbons (MHC, NMHC), CO, CO2, SO2, NOX, O3, and PM10. Also, meteorological parameters were measured, which includes temperature, wind speed and direction, and solar radiation. Over the study period, data analysis showed increase in measured SO2, NOX and CO by factors of 1.2, 5.5 and 2, respectively. This is explained in terms of increase in industrial activities, motor vehicle density, and power generation. Predictions of the measured data were made by the ISC-AERMOD software package and by using the ISCST3 model option. Finally, comparison was made between measured data against international standards.
Abstract: Predict daily global solar radiation (GSR) based on meteorological variables, using Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks is the main objective of this study. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, evaporation, wind speed, and soil temperature values between 2002 and 2006 for Dezful city in Iran (32° 16' N, 48° 25' E), are used in this study. The measured data between 2002 and 2005 are used to train the neural networks while the data for 214 days from 2006 are used as testing data.
Abstract: Dew harvesting needs only weak investment and
exploits a free, clean and inexhaustible energy. This study aims to
measure the relative contributions of dew and rain water in the
Mediterranean Dalmatian coast and islands of Croatia and determine
whether dew water is potable. Two sites were chosen, an open site on
the coast favourable to dew formation (Zadar) and a less favourable
site in a circus of mountains in Komiža (Vis Island). Between July
1st, 2003 and October 31st, 2006, dew hasbeen daily collected on a 1
m2 tilted (30°) test dew condenser together with ordinary
meteorological data (air temperature and relative humidity, cloud
coverage, windspeed and direction). The mean yearly cumulative
dew yields were found to be 20 mm (Zadar) and 9.3 mm (Komiža ).
During the dry season (May to October), monthly cumulative dew
water yield can represent up to 38% of water collected by rain fall. In
July 2003 and 2006, dew water represented about 120% of the
monthly cumulative rain water. Dew and rain water were analyzed in
Zadar. The corresponding parameters were measured: pH, electrical
conductivity, major anions (HCO3
-, Cl-, SO4
2-
, NO3
-
, ,) and major
cations (NH4
+, Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+. Both dew and rain water are in
conformity with the WHO directives for potability except Mg2+.
Using existing roofs and refurbishing the abandoned impluviums to
permit dew collection could then provide a useful supplementary
amount of water, especially during the dry season.
Abstract: To simulate heating systems in buildings, a research oriented computer code has been developed in Sharif University of Technology in Iran where the climate, existing heating equipment in buildings, consumer behavior and their interactions are considered for simulating energy consumption in conventional systems such as heaters, radiators and fan-coils. In order to validate the computer code, the available data of five buildings was used and the computed consumed energy was compared with the estimated energy extracted from monthly bills. The initial heating system was replaced by the alternative system and the effect of this change was observed on the energy consumption. As a result, the effect of changing heating equipment on energy consumption was investigated in different climates. Changing heater to radiator renders energy conservation up to 50% in all climates and changing radiator to fan-coil decreases energy consumption in climates with cold and dry winter.
Abstract: The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are
apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs
missions is often non-adequate or partly missing.
In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support
system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision
makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with
different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical
ones.
The statistical prediction approach is based on a large
climatological data base and the special analog method which is able
to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to
apply them during the forecasting procedure.
The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs
twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast
for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based
system can give important weather information over the Carpathian
basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via
internet connection.
Abstract: The Chichiawan stream in the Wulin catchment in
Taiwan is the natural habitat of Formosan landlocked salmon. Human
and agriculture activities gradually worsen water quality and impact
the fish habitat negatively. To protect and manage Formosan
landlocked salmon habitat, it is important to understand a variety
land-uses affect on the watershed responses to storms. This study
discusses watershed responses to the dry-day before a storm event and
a variety of land-uses in the Wulin catchment. Under the land-use
planning in the Wulin catchment, the peak flows during typhoon
events do not have noticeable difference. However, the nutrient
exports can be highly reduced under the strategies of restraining
agriculture activities. Due to the higher affinity of P for soil than that
of N, the exports of TN from overall Wuling catchment were much
greater than Ortho-P. Agriculture mainly centralized in subbasin A,
which is the important source of nutrients in nonpoint source discharge.
The subbasin A supplied about 26% of the TN and 32% of the Ortho-P
discharge in 2004, despite the fact it only covers 19% area of the
Wuling catchment. The subbasin analysis displayed that the
agricultural subbasin A exports higher nutrients per unit area than
other forest subbasins. Additionally, the agricultural subbasin A
contributed a higher percentage to total Ortho-P exports compares to
TN. The results of subbasin analysis might imply the transport of
Ortho-P was similar to the particulate matter which was mainly
influenced by the runoff and affected by the desorption from soil
particles while the TN (dominated as nitrate-N) was mainly influenced
by base-flow.
Abstract: The paper presents a modelling methodology for
small scale multi-source renewable energy systems. Using historical
site-specific weather data, the relationships of cost, availability and
energy form are visualised as a function of the sizing of photovoltaic
arrays, wind turbines, and battery capacity. The specific dependency
of each site on its own particular weather patterns show that unique
solutions exist for each site. It is shown that in certain cases the
capital component cost can be halved if the desired theoretical
demand availability is reduced from 100% to 99%.
Abstract: Ground-level tropospheric ozone is one of the air
pollutants of most concern. It is mainly produced by photochemical
processes involving nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds
in the lower parts of the atmosphere. Ozone levels become
particularly high in regions close to high ozone precursor emissions
and during summer, when stagnant meteorological conditions with
high insolation and high temperatures are common.
In this work, some results of a study about urban ozone
distribution patterns in the city of Badajoz, which is the largest and
most industrialized city in Extremadura region (southwest Spain) are
shown. Fourteen sampling campaigns, at least one per month, were
carried out to measure ambient air ozone concentrations, during
periods that were selected according to favourable conditions to
ozone production, using an automatic portable analyzer.
Later, to evaluate the ozone distribution at the city, the measured
ozone data were analyzed using geostatistical techniques. Thus, first,
during the exploratory analysis of data, it was revealed that they were
distributed normally, which is a desirable property for the subsequent
stages of the geostatistical study. Secondly, during the structural
analysis of data, theoretical spherical models provided the best fit for
all monthly experimental variograms. The parameters of these
variograms (sill, range and nugget) revealed that the maximum
distance of spatial dependence is between 302-790 m and the
variable, air ozone concentration, is not evenly distributed in reduced
distances. Finally, predictive ozone maps were derived for all points
of the experimental study area, by use of geostatistical algorithms
(kriging). High prediction accuracy was obtained in all cases as
cross-validation showed. Useful information for hazard assessment
was also provided when probability maps, based on kriging
interpolation and kriging standard deviation, were produced.
Abstract: Atmospheric stability plays the most important role in
the transport and dispersion of air pollutants. Different methods are
used for stability determination with varying degrees of complexity.
Most of these methods are based on the relative magnitude of
convective and mechanical turbulence in atmospheric motions.
Richardson number, Monin-Obukhov length, Pasquill-Gifford
stability classification and Pasquill–Turner stability classification, are
the most common parameters and methods. The Pasquill–Turner
Method (PTM), which is employed in this study, makes use of
observations of wind speed, insolation and the time of day to classify
atmospheric stability with distinguishable indices. In this study, a
model is presented to determination of atmospheric stability
conditions using PTM. As a case study, meteorological data of
Mehrabad station in Tehran from 2000 to 2005 is applied to model.
Here, three different categories are considered to deduce the pattern
of stability conditions. First, the total pattern of stability classification
is obtained and results show that atmosphere is 38.77%, 27.26%,
33.97%, at stable, neutral and unstable condition, respectively. It is
also observed that days are mostly unstable (66.50%) while nights are
mostly stable (72.55%). Second, monthly and seasonal patterns are
derived and results indicate that relative frequency of stable
conditions decrease during January to June and increase during June
to December, while results for unstable conditions are exactly in
opposite manner. Autumn is the most stable season with relative
frequency of 50.69% for stable condition, whilst, it is 42.79%,
34.38% and 27.08% for winter, summer and spring, respectively.
Hourly stability pattern is the third category that points out that
unstable condition is dominant from approximately 03-15 GTM and
04-12 GTM for warm and cold seasons, respectively. Finally,
correlation between atmospheric stability and CO concentration is
achieved.
Abstract: To develop a process of extracting pixel values over the using of satellite remote sensing image data in Thailand. It is a very important and effective method of forecasting rainfall. This paper presents an approach for forecasting a possible rainfall area based on pixel values from remote sensing satellite images. First, a method uses an automatic extraction process of the pixel value data from the satellite image sequence. Then, a data process is designed to enable the inference of correlations between pixel value and possible rainfall occurrences. The result, when we have a high averaged pixel value of daily water vapor data, we will also have a high amount of daily rainfall. This suggests that the amount of averaged pixel values can be used as an indicator of raining events. There are some positive associations between pixel values of daily water vapor images and the amount of daily rainfall at each rain-gauge station throughout Thailand. The proposed approach was proven to be a helpful manual for rainfall forecasting from meteorologists by which using automated analyzing and interpreting process of meteorological remote sensing data.
Abstract: In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short-term temperature forecasting (STTF) Systems for Kermanshah city, west of Iran was explored. One important architecture of neural networks named Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to model STTF systems is used. Our study based on MLP was trained and tested using ten years (1996-2006) meteorological data. The results show that MLP network has the minimum forecasting error and can be considered as a good method to model the STTF systems.
Abstract: Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from
atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated
hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational
in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather
prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km
have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF.
In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast
precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined.
The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn
State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed
rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification
indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low
and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.
Abstract: In recent years Malaysia has included renewable
energy as an alternative fuel to help in diversifying the country-s
energy reliance on oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower with
biomass and solar energy gaining priority. The scope of this paper is
to look at the designing procedures and analysis of a solar thermal
parabolic trough concentrator by simulation utilizing meteorological
data in several parts of Malaysia. Parameters which include the
aperture area, the diameter of the receiver and the working fluid may
be varied to optimize the design. Aperture area is determined by
considering the width and the length of the concentrator whereas the
geometric concentration ratio (CR) is obtained by considering the
width and diameter of the receiver. Three types of working fluid are
investigated. Theoretically, concentration ratios can be very high in
the range of 10 to 40 000 depending on the optical elements used and
continuous tracking of the sun. However, a thorough analysis is
essential as discussed in this paper where optical precision and
thermal analysis must be carried out to evaluate the performance of
the parabolic trough concentrator as the theoretical CR is not the only
factor that should be considered.
Abstract: Large scale climate signals and their teleconnections can influence hydro-meteorological variables on a local scale. Several extreme flow and timing measures, including high flow and low flow measures, from 62 hydrometric stations in Canada are investigated to detect possible linkages with several large scale climate indices. The streamflow data used in this study are derived from the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network and are characterized by relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions with a minimum of 40 years of record. A composite analysis approach was used to identify linkages between extreme flow and timing measures and climate indices. The approach involves determining the 10 highest and 10 lowest values of various climate indices from the data record. Extreme flow and timing measures for each station were examined for the years associated with the 10 largest values and the years associated with the 10 smallest values. In each case, a re-sampling approach was applied to determine if the 10 values of extreme flow measures differed significantly from the series mean. Results indicate that several stations are impacted by the large scale climate indices considered in this study. The results allow the determination of any relationship between stations that exhibit a statistically significant trend and stations for which the extreme measures exhibit a linkage with the climate indices.
Abstract: The deficit of power for electricity demand reaches
almost 30% for consumers in the last few years. This reflects with
continually increasing the price of electricity, and today the price for
small industry is almost 110Euro/MWh. The high price is additional
problem for the owners in the economy crisis which is reflected with
higher price of the goods.
The paper gives analyses of the energy needs for real agro
complex in Macedonia, private vinery with capacity of over 2 million
liters in a year and with self grapes and fruits fields. The existing
power supply is from grid with 10/04 kV transformer. The
geographical and meteorological condition of the vinery location
gives opportunity for including renewable as a power supply option
for the vinery complex.
After observation of the monthly energy needs for the vinery, the
base scenario is the existing power supply from the distribution grid.
The electricity bill in small industry has three factors: electricity in
high and low tariffs in kWh and the power engaged for the
technological process of production in kW. These three factors make
the total electricity bill and it is over 110 Euro/MWh which is the
price near competitive for renewable option. On the other side
investments in renewable (especially photovoltaic (PV)) has tendency
of decreasing with price of near 1,5 Euro/W. This means that
renewable with PV can be real option for power supply for small
industry capacities (under 500kW installed power).
Therefore, the other scenarios give the option with PV and the last
one includes wind option. The paper presents some scenarios for
power supply of the vinery as the followings:
• Base scenario of existing conventional power supply from the
grid
• Scenario with implementation of renewable of Photovoltaic
• Scenario with implementation of renewable of Photovoltaic and
Wind power
The total power installed in a vinery is near 570 kW, but the
maximum needs are around 250kW. At the end of the full paper some
of the results from scenarios will be presented. The paper also
includes the environmental impacts of the renewable scenarios, as
well as financial needs for investments and revenues from renewable.