Detection of Linkages Between Extreme Flow Measures and Climate Indices
Large scale climate signals and their teleconnections can influence hydro-meteorological variables on a local scale. Several extreme flow and timing measures, including high flow and low flow measures, from 62 hydrometric stations in Canada are investigated to detect possible linkages with several large scale climate indices. The streamflow data used in this study are derived from the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network and are characterized by relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions with a minimum of 40 years of record. A composite analysis approach was used to identify linkages between extreme flow and timing measures and climate indices. The approach involves determining the 10 highest and 10 lowest values of various climate indices from the data record. Extreme flow and timing measures for each station were examined for the years associated with the 10 largest values and the years associated with the 10 smallest values. In each case, a re-sampling approach was applied to determine if the 10 values of extreme flow measures differed significantly from the series mean. Results indicate that several stations are impacted by the large scale climate indices considered in this study. The results allow the determination of any relationship between stations that exhibit a statistically significant trend and stations for which the extreme measures exhibit a linkage with the climate indices.
[1] Abdul Aziz, O.I. and Burn, D.H. 2006. Trends and variability in the
hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin. J. Hydrology 319:
282-294.
[2] Andrea I. P. and Depetris, P.J. 2007. Discharge trends and flow
dynamics of South American rivers draining the southern Atlantic
seaboard: An overview. J. Hydrology 333, 385- 399.
[3] Burn, D.H. 1994. Hydrological effects of climatic change in west-central
Canada. J. Hydrology 160, 53-70.
[4] Burn, D.H., Hag Elnur, M. A. 2002. Detection of hydrologic trend and
variability. J. Hydrology 255: 107-122.
[5] Burn, D.H., Cunderlik, J. M., and Pietroniro, A. 2004a. Hydrological
trends and variability in the Liard River Basin. Hydrological Sciences
Journal 49(1), 53-67.
[6] Burn, D.H., Abdul Aziz, O. I., and Pietroniro, A. 2004b. A comparison
of trends in hydrometeorological variables for two watersheds in the
Mackenzie River Basin. Canadian Water Resources Journal 29(4), 283-
298.
[7] Burn, D. H., Hag Elnur, M. A. 2002. Detection of hydrologic trend and
variability. J Hydrology 255: 107-122
[8] Burns, D. A., Klaus, J., and Mchale, M. R. 2007. Recent climate trends
and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region,
New York, USA. Journal of Hydrology, 336, 155- 170
[9] Cayan, D. R., Redmond, K. T., Riddle, L. G. 1999. ENSO and
hydrologic extremes in the western United States, J. Climate, 12, 2881-
2893.
[10] Cayan, D. R., Kammerdiener, S. A., Dettinger, M. D., Caprio, J.M.,
Peterson, D. H. 2001. Changes in the onset of spring in the western
United States, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82 (3),
399-415.
[11] Chen, H., Guo, S., Chong, yu. Xu., Singh, V.P. 2007. Historical
temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to
climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in
the Hanjiang basin. J. Hydrology, 344, 171- 184.
[12] Dery, S. J., Wood, E.F. 2004. Teleconnection between the Arctic
Oscillation and Hudson Bay river discharge. Geophysical Research
Letters 31, L18205. Doi:10.1029/2004GL020729.
[13] Dery, S. J., Wood, E.F. 2005. Decreasing river discharge in nortern
Canada. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L10401.
Doi:10.1029/2005GL022845.
[14] Dettinger, M. D., D. R. Cayan, H. F. Diaz, Meko, D. M. 1998. Northsouth
precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual -
to-decadal timescales, J. Climate, 11, 3095-3111.
[15] Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M., Knoll, C. N. 2000. Trends in flood and
low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J.
Hydrology, 240, 90- 105.
[16] Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., Trimble, P. J. 2001. The Atlantic
multidecadal oscillation and it-s relation to rainfall and river flows in the
continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077- 2080.
[17] Fleming, S. W., Clarke, G. K. C. 2003. Glacial control of water
resources and related environmental responses to climatic warming:
empirical analysis using historical streamflow data from Northwestern
Canada. Canadian Water Resources Journal 28(1), 69-86.
[18] Fleming, S.W., Moore, R.D., Clarke, G.K.C. 2006. Glacier-mediated
streamflow teleconnections to the Arctic Oscillation. International J.
Climatology 26, 619-636.
[19] Garen, D. C. 1998. ENSO indicators and long-range climate forecasts:
usage in seasonal streamflow volume forecasting in the western United
States, Eos Trans. AGU, 79(45), Fall Meet. Suppl., F325.
[20] Gershunov, A., Barnett, T.P. 1998. ENSO influence on intraseasonal
extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United
States: Observations and model results. J. Climate, 11, 1575-1586
[21] Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P. 1999. Columbia River streamflow
forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals. J. Water Res.
Plann. and Manage., 125 (6), 333-341.
[22] Hamlet, A.F., Huppert, D. Lettenmaier, D. P. 2002. Economic value of
long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower, J.
Water Res. Plann. Manage., 128, 91- 101.
[23] Harvey, K.D., Pilon, P.J. and Yuzyk, T.R. 1999. Canada-s Reference
Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN). In Partnerships in Water
Resources Management. Proceedings of the CWRA 51st Annual
Conference, Nova Scotia.
[24] Helsel, D.R., Hirsch, R.M. 1992. Statistical methods in water resources.
Elsevier, Amsterdam, 522 pp.
[25] Hess, A., Iyer, H., Malm, W. 2001. Linear trend analysis, a comparison
of methods. Atmospheric Environment 35, 5211-5222.
[26] Higgins, R. W., A. Leetmaa, Y. Xue, Barnston, A. 2000, Dominant
factors influencing the seasonal predictability of U.S. precipitation and
surface air temperature, J. Climate, 13, 3994-4017.
[27] Hodgkins, G.A., Dudley, R.W., Huntington, T.G. 2003. Changes in the
timings of high river flows in New England over the 20th century. J.
Hydrology 278, 244-252
[28] Hodgkins, G.A., Dudley, R.W. 2006. Change in the timings of winterspring
streamflows in eastern North America, 1913-2002. Geophysical
Research Letters 33, L06402
[29] Hoerling, M.P., Kumar, A., Zhong, M. 1997. El Nin˜o, La Nin˜a, and the
nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate 10, 1769-1786.
[30] Hua, C., Guo, S., Xu, Chong-yu, Singh, V. P. 2007. Historical temporal
trends of hydroclimatic variables and runoff response to climatic
variability and their relevance in water resource management in the
Hanjiang basin. J. Hydrology, 344, 171- 184.
[31] Hurrell, J.W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., Visbeek, M. (Eds.), 2003. The
North Atlantic Oscillation: climate significance and environmental
impact. Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 134. AGU, Washington,
DC.
[32] Kahya, E., Dracup, J. A. 1993. U.S. streamflow patterns in relation to El
Nin˜o/Southern Oscillation, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2491-2503.
[33] Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank Correlation Measures, Charles Griffin,
London, UK.
[34] Knight, J.R., Folland, C.K., Scaife, A. A. 2006. Climate impacts of the
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 33,
L17706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026242.
[35] Kundzewicz, Z.W., Robson, A.J. 2004.Change detection in hydrological
records-a review of the methodlogy.Hydrological Sciences, 49 (1),7-19
[36] Lindstrom, G., Bergstrom, S., 2004. Runoff trends in Sweden 1807-
2002. Hydrological Sciences, 49 (1), 69-83.
[37] Lin, H., Derome, J. 1998. A three-year lagged correlation between the
North Atlantic Oscillation and winter conditions over the North Pacific
and North America. Geophysical Research Letters 25, 2829-2832.
[38] Lins, H.F., 1997. Regional streamflow regimes and hydro-climatology of
the United States. Water Resources Research 33 (7), 1655-1667.
[39] Mann, H.B. 1945. Non-parametric tests against trend, Econometrica 13:
245-259.
[40] Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., Francis, R.C. 1997.
A pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon
production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (6),
1069-1079.
[41] Maurer, E.P., Lettenmaier, D.P., Mantua, N.J. 2004. Variability and
potential sources of predictability of North American runoff. Water
Resources Research 40, W09306. doi:10.1029/2003WR002789
[42] McCabe, G. J., Dettinger, M.D. 1999. Decadal variations in the strength
of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western U.S., Int. J.
Climatol., 19, 1399- 1410.
[43] Neal, E.G., Walter, M.T., Coffeen, C. 2002. Linking the pacific decadal
oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in southeast Alaska. J.
Hydrology 263, 188-197.
[44] Novotny, E.V., Stefan, H. G. 2007. Stream flow in Minnesota: Indicator
of climate change. J. Hydrology 334, 319- 333
[45] Serreze, M.C., Bromwich, D.H., Clark, M.P., Etringer, A.J., Zhang, T.,
Lammers, R. 2003. Large-scale hydro-climatology of the terrestrial
Arctic drainage system. Journal of Geophysical Research 107, 8160.
doi:10.1029/2001JD000919.
[46] Singh, P., Kumar, V., Thomas, T., and Arora, M. 2008. Basin-wide
assessment of temperature trends in northwest and central India.
Hydrological Science Journal, 53(2), 421-433
[47] Stewart, I.T., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D. 2005. Changes towards
earlier streamflow timing across western North America. J. Climate 18,
1136-1155
[48] von Storch, H., Zwiers, F.W. 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate
Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[49] Westmacott, J.R., Burn, D.H. 1997. Climate change effects on the
hydrologic regime within the Churchill-Nelson River Basin. J.
Hydrology 202, 263-279.
[50] Whitfield, P.H., 2001. Linked hydrologic and climatic variations in
British Columbia and Yukon. Environmental Monitoring and
Assessment 67(1-2), 217-238.
[51] Woolhiser, D. A., T. O. Keefer, Redmond, K.T. 1993. Southern
oscillation effects on daily precipitation in the southwestern united
States, Water Resour. Res., 29, 1287-1295.
[52] Yue, S., Pilon, P.J., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. 2002. The influence
of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. J.
Hydrological Processes 16(9): 1807-1829.
[53] Zhang,Q., Liu,C., XU, C.Y., XU, Y.P., Jiang, T. 2006. Observed trends
of water level and Streamflow during past 100 years in the Yangtze
River basin, China, J. Hydrolgy 324 (1-4).255-265
[54] Zhang,X., Harvey, K.D., Hogg, W.D., Yuzyk, T.R. 2001. Trends in
Canadian streamflow. Water Resouces Research 37 (4), 987-998.
[55] Zhang Q, Liu C, Xu CY, Xu YP, Jiang, T. 2006. Observed trends of
water level and streamflow during past 100 years in the Yangtze River
basin, China. J. Hydrology 324 (1-4): 255-265
[1] Abdul Aziz, O.I. and Burn, D.H. 2006. Trends and variability in the
hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin. J. Hydrology 319:
282-294.
[2] Andrea I. P. and Depetris, P.J. 2007. Discharge trends and flow
dynamics of South American rivers draining the southern Atlantic
seaboard: An overview. J. Hydrology 333, 385- 399.
[3] Burn, D.H. 1994. Hydrological effects of climatic change in west-central
Canada. J. Hydrology 160, 53-70.
[4] Burn, D.H., Hag Elnur, M. A. 2002. Detection of hydrologic trend and
variability. J. Hydrology 255: 107-122.
[5] Burn, D.H., Cunderlik, J. M., and Pietroniro, A. 2004a. Hydrological
trends and variability in the Liard River Basin. Hydrological Sciences
Journal 49(1), 53-67.
[6] Burn, D.H., Abdul Aziz, O. I., and Pietroniro, A. 2004b. A comparison
of trends in hydrometeorological variables for two watersheds in the
Mackenzie River Basin. Canadian Water Resources Journal 29(4), 283-
298.
[7] Burn, D. H., Hag Elnur, M. A. 2002. Detection of hydrologic trend and
variability. J Hydrology 255: 107-122
[8] Burns, D. A., Klaus, J., and Mchale, M. R. 2007. Recent climate trends
and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region,
New York, USA. Journal of Hydrology, 336, 155- 170
[9] Cayan, D. R., Redmond, K. T., Riddle, L. G. 1999. ENSO and
hydrologic extremes in the western United States, J. Climate, 12, 2881-
2893.
[10] Cayan, D. R., Kammerdiener, S. A., Dettinger, M. D., Caprio, J.M.,
Peterson, D. H. 2001. Changes in the onset of spring in the western
United States, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82 (3),
399-415.
[11] Chen, H., Guo, S., Chong, yu. Xu., Singh, V.P. 2007. Historical
temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to
climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in
the Hanjiang basin. J. Hydrology, 344, 171- 184.
[12] Dery, S. J., Wood, E.F. 2004. Teleconnection between the Arctic
Oscillation and Hudson Bay river discharge. Geophysical Research
Letters 31, L18205. Doi:10.1029/2004GL020729.
[13] Dery, S. J., Wood, E.F. 2005. Decreasing river discharge in nortern
Canada. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L10401.
Doi:10.1029/2005GL022845.
[14] Dettinger, M. D., D. R. Cayan, H. F. Diaz, Meko, D. M. 1998. Northsouth
precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual -
to-decadal timescales, J. Climate, 11, 3095-3111.
[15] Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M., Knoll, C. N. 2000. Trends in flood and
low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J.
Hydrology, 240, 90- 105.
[16] Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., Trimble, P. J. 2001. The Atlantic
multidecadal oscillation and it-s relation to rainfall and river flows in the
continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077- 2080.
[17] Fleming, S. W., Clarke, G. K. C. 2003. Glacial control of water
resources and related environmental responses to climatic warming:
empirical analysis using historical streamflow data from Northwestern
Canada. Canadian Water Resources Journal 28(1), 69-86.
[18] Fleming, S.W., Moore, R.D., Clarke, G.K.C. 2006. Glacier-mediated
streamflow teleconnections to the Arctic Oscillation. International J.
Climatology 26, 619-636.
[19] Garen, D. C. 1998. ENSO indicators and long-range climate forecasts:
usage in seasonal streamflow volume forecasting in the western United
States, Eos Trans. AGU, 79(45), Fall Meet. Suppl., F325.
[20] Gershunov, A., Barnett, T.P. 1998. ENSO influence on intraseasonal
extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United
States: Observations and model results. J. Climate, 11, 1575-1586
[21] Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P. 1999. Columbia River streamflow
forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals. J. Water Res.
Plann. and Manage., 125 (6), 333-341.
[22] Hamlet, A.F., Huppert, D. Lettenmaier, D. P. 2002. Economic value of
long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower, J.
Water Res. Plann. Manage., 128, 91- 101.
[23] Harvey, K.D., Pilon, P.J. and Yuzyk, T.R. 1999. Canada-s Reference
Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN). In Partnerships in Water
Resources Management. Proceedings of the CWRA 51st Annual
Conference, Nova Scotia.
[24] Helsel, D.R., Hirsch, R.M. 1992. Statistical methods in water resources.
Elsevier, Amsterdam, 522 pp.
[25] Hess, A., Iyer, H., Malm, W. 2001. Linear trend analysis, a comparison
of methods. Atmospheric Environment 35, 5211-5222.
[26] Higgins, R. W., A. Leetmaa, Y. Xue, Barnston, A. 2000, Dominant
factors influencing the seasonal predictability of U.S. precipitation and
surface air temperature, J. Climate, 13, 3994-4017.
[27] Hodgkins, G.A., Dudley, R.W., Huntington, T.G. 2003. Changes in the
timings of high river flows in New England over the 20th century. J.
Hydrology 278, 244-252
[28] Hodgkins, G.A., Dudley, R.W. 2006. Change in the timings of winterspring
streamflows in eastern North America, 1913-2002. Geophysical
Research Letters 33, L06402
[29] Hoerling, M.P., Kumar, A., Zhong, M. 1997. El Nin˜o, La Nin˜a, and the
nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate 10, 1769-1786.
[30] Hua, C., Guo, S., Xu, Chong-yu, Singh, V. P. 2007. Historical temporal
trends of hydroclimatic variables and runoff response to climatic
variability and their relevance in water resource management in the
Hanjiang basin. J. Hydrology, 344, 171- 184.
[31] Hurrell, J.W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., Visbeek, M. (Eds.), 2003. The
North Atlantic Oscillation: climate significance and environmental
impact. Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 134. AGU, Washington,
DC.
[32] Kahya, E., Dracup, J. A. 1993. U.S. streamflow patterns in relation to El
Nin˜o/Southern Oscillation, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2491-2503.
[33] Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank Correlation Measures, Charles Griffin,
London, UK.
[34] Knight, J.R., Folland, C.K., Scaife, A. A. 2006. Climate impacts of the
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 33,
L17706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026242.
[35] Kundzewicz, Z.W., Robson, A.J. 2004.Change detection in hydrological
records-a review of the methodlogy.Hydrological Sciences, 49 (1),7-19
[36] Lindstrom, G., Bergstrom, S., 2004. Runoff trends in Sweden 1807-
2002. Hydrological Sciences, 49 (1), 69-83.
[37] Lin, H., Derome, J. 1998. A three-year lagged correlation between the
North Atlantic Oscillation and winter conditions over the North Pacific
and North America. Geophysical Research Letters 25, 2829-2832.
[38] Lins, H.F., 1997. Regional streamflow regimes and hydro-climatology of
the United States. Water Resources Research 33 (7), 1655-1667.
[39] Mann, H.B. 1945. Non-parametric tests against trend, Econometrica 13:
245-259.
[40] Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., Francis, R.C. 1997.
A pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon
production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (6),
1069-1079.
[41] Maurer, E.P., Lettenmaier, D.P., Mantua, N.J. 2004. Variability and
potential sources of predictability of North American runoff. Water
Resources Research 40, W09306. doi:10.1029/2003WR002789
[42] McCabe, G. J., Dettinger, M.D. 1999. Decadal variations in the strength
of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western U.S., Int. J.
Climatol., 19, 1399- 1410.
[43] Neal, E.G., Walter, M.T., Coffeen, C. 2002. Linking the pacific decadal
oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in southeast Alaska. J.
Hydrology 263, 188-197.
[44] Novotny, E.V., Stefan, H. G. 2007. Stream flow in Minnesota: Indicator
of climate change. J. Hydrology 334, 319- 333
[45] Serreze, M.C., Bromwich, D.H., Clark, M.P., Etringer, A.J., Zhang, T.,
Lammers, R. 2003. Large-scale hydro-climatology of the terrestrial
Arctic drainage system. Journal of Geophysical Research 107, 8160.
doi:10.1029/2001JD000919.
[46] Singh, P., Kumar, V., Thomas, T., and Arora, M. 2008. Basin-wide
assessment of temperature trends in northwest and central India.
Hydrological Science Journal, 53(2), 421-433
[47] Stewart, I.T., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D. 2005. Changes towards
earlier streamflow timing across western North America. J. Climate 18,
1136-1155
[48] von Storch, H., Zwiers, F.W. 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate
Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[49] Westmacott, J.R., Burn, D.H. 1997. Climate change effects on the
hydrologic regime within the Churchill-Nelson River Basin. J.
Hydrology 202, 263-279.
[50] Whitfield, P.H., 2001. Linked hydrologic and climatic variations in
British Columbia and Yukon. Environmental Monitoring and
Assessment 67(1-2), 217-238.
[51] Woolhiser, D. A., T. O. Keefer, Redmond, K.T. 1993. Southern
oscillation effects on daily precipitation in the southwestern united
States, Water Resour. Res., 29, 1287-1295.
[52] Yue, S., Pilon, P.J., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. 2002. The influence
of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. J.
Hydrological Processes 16(9): 1807-1829.
[53] Zhang,Q., Liu,C., XU, C.Y., XU, Y.P., Jiang, T. 2006. Observed trends
of water level and Streamflow during past 100 years in the Yangtze
River basin, China, J. Hydrolgy 324 (1-4).255-265
[54] Zhang,X., Harvey, K.D., Hogg, W.D., Yuzyk, T.R. 2001. Trends in
Canadian streamflow. Water Resouces Research 37 (4), 987-998.
[55] Zhang Q, Liu C, Xu CY, Xu YP, Jiang, T. 2006. Observed trends of
water level and streamflow during past 100 years in the Yangtze River
basin, China. J. Hydrology 324 (1-4): 255-265
@article{"International Journal of Architectural, Civil and Construction Sciences:55698", author = "Mohammed Sharif and Donald Burn", title = "Detection of Linkages Between Extreme Flow Measures and Climate Indices", abstract = "Large scale climate signals and their teleconnections can influence hydro-meteorological variables on a local scale. Several extreme flow and timing measures, including high flow and low flow measures, from 62 hydrometric stations in Canada are investigated to detect possible linkages with several large scale climate indices. The streamflow data used in this study are derived from the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network and are characterized by relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions with a minimum of 40 years of record. A composite analysis approach was used to identify linkages between extreme flow and timing measures and climate indices. The approach involves determining the 10 highest and 10 lowest values of various climate indices from the data record. Extreme flow and timing measures for each station were examined for the years associated with the 10 largest values and the years associated with the 10 smallest values. In each case, a re-sampling approach was applied to determine if the 10 values of extreme flow measures differed significantly from the series mean. Results indicate that several stations are impacted by the large scale climate indices considered in this study. The results allow the determination of any relationship between stations that exhibit a statistically significant trend and stations for which the extreme measures exhibit a linkage with the climate indices.
", keywords = "flood analysis, low-flow events, climate change, trend analysis, Canada", volume = "3", number = "12", pages = "495-6", }
