Abstract: A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.
Abstract: This research investigates the distribution of food
demand for animal food and the optimum amount of that food
production at minimum cost. The data consist of customer purchase
orders for the food of laying hens, price of food for laying hens, cost
per unit for the food inventory, cost related to food of laying hens in
which the food is out of stock, such as fine, overtime, urgent
purchase for material. They were collected from January, 1990 to
December, 2013 from a factory in Nakhonratchasima province. The
collected data are analyzed in order to explore the distribution of the
monthly food demand for the laying hens and to see the rate of
inventory per unit. The results are used in a stochastic linear
programming model for aggregate planning in which the optimum
production or minimum cost could be obtained. Programming
algorithms in MATLAB and tools in Linprog software are used to get
the solution. The distribution of the food demand for laying hens and
the random numbers are used in the model. The study shows that the
distribution of monthly food demand for laying has a normal
distribution, the monthly average amount (unit: 30 kg) of production
from January to December. The minimum total cost average for 12
months is Baht 62,329,181.77. Therefore, the production planning
can reduce the cost by 14.64% from real cost.
Abstract: This study was aimed to investigate the effect of
various organic supplements on growth and development of
Dendrobium discolor’s protocorms and seedlings growth of
Dendrobium Judy Rutz. Protocorms of Dendrobium discolor with 2.0
cm. in diameter and seedlings of Dendrobium Judy Rutz at the same
size (0.5 cm. height) were sub-cultured on Hyponex medium
supplemented with cow milk (CM), soy milk (SM), potato extract
(PE) and peptone (P) for 2 months. The protocorms were developed
to seedlings in all treatments after cultured for 2 months. However,
the best results were found on Hyponex medium supplemented with
P was the best in which the maximum fresh and dry weight and
maximum shoot height were obtained in this treatment statistically
different (p ≤ 0.05) to other treatments. Moreover, Hyponex medium
supplemented with P also stimulated the maximum mean number of
5.7 shoots per explant which also showed statistically different (p ≤
0.05) when compared to other treatments. The results of growth of
Dendrobium Judy Rutz seedlings indicated the medium
supplemented with 100 mL/L PE enhanced the maximum fresh and
dry weigh per explants with significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) in fresh
weight from other treatments including the control medium without
any organic supplementation. However, the dry weight was not
significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) from medium supplemented with
SM and P. There was multiple shoots induction in all media with or
without organic supplementation ranging from 2.6 to 3 shoots per
explants. The maximum shoot height was also obtained in the
seedlings cultured on medium supplemented with PE while the
longest root length was found in medium supplemented with SM.
Abstract: This article presents a monitoring indicators system
that predicts whether a local government in Taiwan is heading for
fiscal distress and identifies a suitable fiscal policy that would allow
the local government to achieve fiscal balance in the long run. This
system is relevant to stockholders’ interest, simple for national audit
bodies to use, and provides an early warning of fiscal distress that
allows preventative action to be taken.
Abstract: Overbooking is an approach of selling more goods or services than available capacities because sellers anticipate that some buyers will not show-up or may cancel their bookings. At present, many airlines deploy overbooking strategy in order to deal with the uncertainty of their customers. Particularly, some airlines sell more cargo capacity than what they have available to freight forwarders with beliefs that some of them will cancel later. In this paper, we propose methods to find the optimal overbooking level of volume and weight for air cargo in order to minimize the total cost, containing cost of spoilage and cost of offloaded. Cancellations of volume and weight are jointly random variables with a known joint distribution. Heuristic approaches applying the idea of weight and volume independency is considered to find an appropriate answer to the full problem. Computational experiments are used to explore the performance of approaches presented in this paper, as compared to a naïve method under different scenarios.
Abstract: The dry-storage systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan have become one of the major safety concerns. There are two steps considered in this study. The first step is the verification of the TRACE by using VSC-17 experimental data. The results of TRACE were similar to the VSC-17 data. It indicates that TRACE has the respectable accuracy in the simulation and analysis of the dry-storage systems. The next step is the application of TRACE in the dry-storage system of Kuosheng NPP (BWR/6). Kuosheng NPP is the second BWR NPP of Taiwan Power Company. In order to solve the storage of the spent fuels, Taiwan Power Company developed the new dry-storage system for Kuosheng NPP. In this step, the dry-storage system model of Kuosheng NPP was established by TRACE. Then, the steady state simulation of this model was performed and the results of TRACE were compared with the Kuosheng NPP data. Finally, this model was used to perform the safety analysis of Kuosheng NPP dry-storage system. Besides, FRAPTRAN was used tocalculate the transient performance of fuel rods.
Abstract: Vehicular Ad hoc Network (VANET) is a special case of Mobile Ad hoc Network (MANET) used to establish communications and exchange information among nearby vehicles and between vehicles and nearby fixed infrastructure. VANET is seen as a promising technology used to provide safety, efficiency, assistance and comfort to the road users. Routing is an important issue in Vehicular Ad Hoc Network to find and maintain communication between vehicles due to the highly dynamic topology, frequently disconnected network and mobility constraints.
This paper evaluates the performance of two most popular proactive routing protocols OLSR and DSDV in real city traffic scenario on the basis of three metrics namely Packet delivery ratio, throughput and average end to end delay by varying vehicles density and transmission range.
Abstract: Microalgae due to the ability to accumulate high levels of practically valuable polyunsaturated fatty acids attract attention as a promising raw material for commercial products. The features of the growth processes of cells green protococcal microalgae Oocystis rhomboideus, Scenedesmus obliquus, Dictyochlorella globosa at cultivation in different nutritional mediums were determined. For the rapid accumulation of biomass, combined with high productivity of total lipids fraction yield recommended to use the Fitzgerald medium (Scenodesmus obliquus, Oocystis rhomboideus) and/or Bold medium (Dictyochlorella globosa). Productivity of lipids decreased in sequence Dictyochlorella globosa > Scenodesmus obliquus > Oocystis rhomboideus. The bulk of fatty acids fraction of the total lipids is unsaturated fatty acids, which accounts for 70 to 83% of the total number of fatty acids. The share of monoenic acids accounts from 18 to 34%, while the share of unsaturated fatty acids - from 44 to 62% of the total number of unsaturated fatty acids fraction. Among the unsaturated acids dominate α-linolenic acid (C18:3n-3), hexadecatetraenic acid (C16:4) and linoleic acid (C18:2).
Abstract: Cloud outsource storage is one of important services in cloud computing. Cloud users upload data to cloud servers to reduce the cost of managing data and maintaining hardware and software. To ensure data confidentiality, users can encrypt their files before uploading them to a cloud system. However, retrieving the target file from the encrypted files exactly is difficult for cloud server. This study proposes a protocol for performing multikeyword searches for encrypted cloud data by applying k-nearest neighbor technology. The protocol ranks the relevance scores of encrypted files and keywords, and prevents cloud servers from learning search keywords submitted by a cloud user. To reduce the costs of file transfer communication, the cloud server returns encrypted files in order of relevance. Moreover, when a cloud user inputs an incorrect keyword and the number of wrong alphabet does not exceed a given threshold; the user still can retrieve the target files from cloud server. In addition, the proposed scheme satisfies security requirements for outsourced data storage.
Abstract: Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.
Abstract: Utilizing solar energy in producing electricity can minimize environmental pollution generated by fossil fuel in producing electricity. Our research was base on the extraction of dye from Roystonea regia fruit by using methanol as solvent. The dye extracts were used as sensitizers in Dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSCs). Study was done on the electrical properties from the extracts of Roystonea regia fruit as Dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSCs). The absorptions of the extracts and extracts with dye were determined at different wavelengths (350-1000nm). Absorption peak was observed at 1.339 at wavelength 400nm. The obtained values for methanol extract Roystonea regia extract are, Imp = 0.015mA, Vmp = 12.0mV, fill factor = 0.763, Isc= 0.018 mA and Voc = 13.1 mV and efficiency of 0.32%. .The phytochemical screening was taken and it was observed that Roystonea regia extract contained less of anthocyanin compared to flavonoids. The nanostructured dye sensitized solar cell (DSSC) will provide economically credible alternative to present day silicon p–n junction photovoltaic.
Abstract: A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.
Abstract: The research work covered in this study includes the morphological structure and optical properties of TiO2-coated silk fibroin (SF) filters at 2.5% wt. TiO2/vol. PVA solution. SEM micrographs revealed the fibrous morphology of the TiO2-coated SF filters. An average diameter of the SF fiber was estimated to be approximately 10µm. Also, it was confirmed that TiO2 can be adhered more on SF filter surface at higher TiO2 dosages. The activity of semiconductor materials was studied by UV-VIS spectrophotometer method. The spectral data recorded shows the strong cut off at 390 nm. The calculated band-gap energy was about 3.19 eV. The photocatalytic activity of the filter was tested for gaseous formaldehyde removal in a modeling room with the total volume of 2.66 m3. The highest removal efficiency (54.72 ± 1.75%) was obtained at the initial formaldehyde concentration of about 5.00 ± 0.50ppm.
Abstract: This paper presents a wireless sensor network protocol for a car parking monitoring system. A wireless sensor network for the purpose is composed of multiple sensor nodes, a sink node, a gateway, and a server. Each of the sensor nodes is equipped with a 3-axis AMR sensor and deployed in the center of a parking space. The sensor node reads its sensor values periodically and transmits the data to the sink node if the current and immediate past sensor values show a difference exceeding a threshold value. The operations of the sink and sensor nodes are described in detail along with flow diagrams. The protocol allows a low-duty cycle operation of the sensor nodes and a flexible adjustment of the threshold value used by the sensor nodes.
Abstract: The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.
Abstract: Numerous amounts of metallurgical dusts and sludge containing iron as well as some other valuable elements such as Zn, Pb and C are annually produced in the steelmaking industry. These alternative iron ore resources (fines) with unsatisfying physical and metallurgical properties are difficult to recycle. However, agglomerating these fines to be further used as a feed stock for existing iron and steelmaking processes is practiced successfully at several plants but for limited extent.
In the present study, briquettes of integrated steelmaking industry waste materials (namely, BF-dust and sludge, BOF-dust and sludge) were used as feed stock to produce direct reduced iron (DRI). Physical and metallurgical properties of produced briquettes were investigated by means of TGA/DTA/QMS in combination with XRD. Swelling, softening and melting behavior were also studied using heating microscope.
Abstract: In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme
Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set
of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is
calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the
performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage
tests and loss functions. Our results show that “fattailedness” alone of
the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach.
The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor.
This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes
occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with
extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock
Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past
than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes
(Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone
produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics
of the data.
Abstract: In the article are considered the problems arising at increasing of transferring from rolling stock axles on rail loading from 210 KN up to 270 KN and is offered for rail strength analysis definition of rail force loading complex integral characteristic with taking into account all affecting force factors that is characterizing specific operation condition of rail structure and defines the working capability of structure.
As result of analysis due mentioned method is obtained that in the conditions of 270 KN loading the rail meets the working assessment criteria of rail and rail structures: Strength, rail track stability, rail links stability and its transverse stability, traffic safety condition that is rather important for post-Soviet countries railways.
Abstract: We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.
Abstract: Modern day stock markets have almost entirely became automated. Even though it means increased profits for the investors by algorithms acting upon the slightest price change in order of microseconds, it also has given birth to many ethical dilemmas in the sense that slightest mistake can cause people to lose all of their livelihoods. This paper reviews one such event that happened on May 06, 2010 in which $1 trillion dollars disappeared from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We are going to discuss its various aspects and the ethical dilemmas that have arisen due to it.