Time Series Forecasting Using a Hybrid RBF Neural Network and AR Model Based On Binomial Smoothing

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

An Interactive 3D Experience for the Creation of Personalized Styling

This research proposes an Interactive 3D Experience to enhance customer value in the fantasy era. As products reach maturity, they become more similar in the range of functions that they provide. This leads to competition via reduced retail price and ultimately reduced profitability. A competitive design method is therefore needed that can produce higher value products. An Enhanced Value Experience has been identified that can assist designers to provide quality products and to give them a unique positioning. On the basis of this value opportunity, the method of Interactive 3D Experience has been formulated and applied to the domain of retail furniture. Through this, customers can create their own personalized styling via the interactive 3D platform.

Practical Method for Digital Music Matching Robust to Various Sound Qualities

In this paper, we propose a practical digital music matching system that is robust to variation in sound qualities. The proposed system is subdivided into two parts: client and server. The client part consists of the input, preprocessing and feature extraction modules. The preprocessing module, including the music onset module, revises the value gap occurring on the time axis between identical songs of different formats. The proposed method uses delta-grouped Mel frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCCs) to extract music features that are robust to changes in sound quality. According to the number of sound quality formats (SQFs) used, a music server is constructed with a feature database (FD) that contains different sub feature databases (SFDs). When the proposed system receives a music file, the selection module selects an appropriate SFD from a feature database; the selected SFD is subsequently used by the matching module. In this study, we used 3,000 queries for matching experiments in three cases with different FDs. In each case, we used 1,000 queries constructed by mixing 8 SQFs and 125 songs. The success rate of music matching improved from 88.6% when using single a single SFD to 93.2% when using quadruple SFDs. By this experiment, we proved that the proposed method is robust to various sound qualities.

An Empirical Formula for Seismic Test of Telecommunication Equipments

Antiseismic property of telecommunication equipment is very important for the grasp of the damage and the restoration after earthquake. Telecommunication business operators are regulating seismic standard for their equipments. These standards are organized to simulate the real seismic situations and usually define the minimum value of first natural frequency of the equipments or the allowable maximum displacement of top of the equipments relative to bottom. Using the finite element analysis, natural frequency can be obtained with high accuracy but the relative displacement of top of the equipments is difficult to predict accurately using the analysis. Furthermore, in the case of simulating the equipments with access floor, predicting the relative displacement of top of the equipments become more difficult. In this study, using enormous experimental datum, an empirical formula is suggested to forecast the relative displacement of top of the equipments. Also it can be known that which physical quantities are related with the relative displacement.

Measurement of Rainwater Chemical Composition in Malaysia based on Ion Chromatography Method

Air quality in Setapak district of Kuala Lumpur was studied by analysing the rainwater chemical composition using ion chromatography method. Twelve sampling sites were selected and 120 rainwater samples were collected in the period of 10 weeks. The results of this study were compared to the earlier published data and the evaluation showed that the NO3 - ion concentration increased from 0.41 to 3.32 ppm, while SO4 2- ion concentration increased from 0.39 to 3.26 ppm over the past two decades that is mostly due to rapid urban development of the city. However, it was found that the chemical composition for both residential and industrial areas does not have significant difference. Most of the rainwater samples showed alkaline pH (pH > 5.6). The possible factors for such alkaline pH in rainwater samples are assumed to be the marine sources, biomass burning and alkaline character of soil particles.

Influence of Turbulence Model, Grid Resolution and Free-Stream Turbulence Intensity on the Numerical Simulation of the Flow Field around an Inclined Flat Plate

The flow field around a flat plate of infinite span has been investigated for several values of the angle of attack. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to examine the effect of turbulence model and grid resolution on the resultant aerodynamic forces acting on the plate. Also the influence of the free-stream turbulence intensity, at the entrance of the computational domain, has been investigated. A full campaign of simulations has been conducted for three inclination angles (9°, 15° and 30°), in order to obtain some practical guidelines to be used for the simulation of the flow field around inclined plates and discs.

Comprehensive Evaluation on Land Supply System Performance: In Terms of System Transformation

This evaluation of land supply system performance in China shall examine the combination of government functions and national goals in order to perform a cost-benefit analysis of system results. From the author's point of view, it is most productive to evaluate land supply system performance at moments of system transformation for the following reasons. The behavior and input-output change of beneficial results at different times can be observed when the system or policy changes and system performance can be evaluated through a cost-benefit analysis during the process of system transformation. Moreover, this evaluation method can avoid the influence of land resource endowment. Different land resource endowment methods and different economy development periods result in different systems. This essay studies the contents, principles and methods of land supply system performance evaluation. Taking Beijing as an example, this essay optimizes and classifies the land supply index, makes a quantitative evaluation of land supply system performance through principal component analysis (PCA), and finally analyzes the factors that influence land supply system performance at times of system transformation.

A Fuzzy System to Analyze SIVD Diseases Using the Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

The paper proposes a methodology to process the signals coming from the Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) in order to identify the pathology and evaluate the therapy to treat the patients affected by demency diseases. In particular, a fuzzy model is developed to identify the demency of the patients affected by Subcortical Ischemic Vascular Dementia (SIVD) and to measure the effect of a repetitive TMS on their motor performances. A tool is also presented to support the mentioned analysis.

Development for the Evaluation Index of an Anesthesia Depth using the Bispectrum Analysis

The linear SEF (Spectral Edge Frequency) parameter and spectrum analysis method can not reflect the non-linear of EEG. This method can not contribute to acquire real time analysis and obtain a high confidence in the clinic due to low discrimination. To solve the problems, the development of a new index is carried out using the bispectrum analyzing the EEG(electroencephalogram) including the non-linear characteristic. After analyzing the bispectrum of the 2 dimension, the most significant power spectrum density peaks appeared abundantly at the specific area in awakening and anesthesia state. These points are utilized to create the new index since many peaks appeared at the specific area in the frequency coordinate. The measured range of an index was 0-100. An index is 20-50 at an anesthesia, while the index is 90-60 at the awake. New index could afford to effectively discriminate the awake and anesthesia state.

The Study of Chain Initiation Effect on the Direct Initiation of Detonation

In this research, effect of combustion reaction mechanism on direct initiation of detonation has been studied numerically. For this purpose, reaction mechanism has been simulated by using a three-step chemical kinetics model. The reaction scheme consists sequentially of a chain-initiation and chainbranching step, followed by a temperature -independent chaintermination. In a previous research, the effect of chain-branching on the direct initiation of detonation is studied. In this research effect of chain-initiation on direct initiation of detonation is investigated. For the investigation, first a characteristic time (τ) for each step of mechanism, which includes effect of different kinetics parameters, is defined. Then the effect of characteristic time of chain-initiation (τI) on critical initiation energy is studied. It is seen that increasing τI, causes critical initiation energy to be increased. Drawing detonation's shock pressure diagrams for different cases, shows that in small value of τI , kinetics has more important effect on the behavior of the wave.

Abrupt Scene Change Detection

A number of automated shot-change detection methods for indexing a video sequence to facilitate browsing and retrieval have been proposed in recent years. This paper emphasizes on the simulation of video shot boundary detection using one of the methods of the color histogram wherein scaling of the histogram metrics is an added feature. The difference between the histograms of two consecutive frames is evaluated resulting in the metrics. Further scaling of the metrics is performed to avoid ambiguity and to enable the choice of apt threshold for any type of videos which involves minor error due to flashlight, camera motion, etc. Two sample videos are used here with resolution of 352 X 240 pixels using color histogram approach in the uncompressed media. An attempt is made for the retrieval of color video. The simulation is performed for the abrupt change in video which yields 90% recall and precision value.

A Similarity Measure for Clustering and its Applications

This paper introduces a measure of similarity between two clusterings of the same dataset produced by two different algorithms, or even the same algorithm (K-means, for instance, with different initializations usually produce different results in clustering the same dataset). We then apply the measure to calculate the similarity between pairs of clusterings, with special interest directed at comparing the similarity between various machine clusterings and human clustering of datasets. The similarity measure thus can be used to identify the best (in terms of most similar to human) clustering algorithm for a specific problem at hand. Experimental results pertaining to the text categorization problem of a Portuguese corpus (wherein a translation-into-English approach is used) are presented, as well as results on the well-known benchmark IRIS dataset. The significance and other potential applications of the proposed measure are discussed.

Characterization of Electrohydrodynamic Force on Dielectric-Barrier-Discharge Plasma Actuator Using Fluid Simulation

Wall-surface jet induced by the dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) has been proposed as an actuator for active flow control in aerodynamic applications. Discharge plasma evolution of the DBD plasma actuator was simulated based on a simple fluid model, in which the electron, one type of positive ion and negative ion were taken into account. Two-dimensional simulation was conducted, and the results are in agreement with the insights obtained from experimental studies. The simulation results indicate that the discharge mode changes depending on applied voltage slope; when the applied voltage is positive-going with high applied voltage slope, the corona-type discharge mode turns into the streamer-type discharge mode and the threshold voltage slope is around 300 kV/ms in this simulation. The characteristics of the electrohydrodynamic (EHD) force, which is the source of the wall-surface jet, also change depending on the discharge mode; the tentative peak value of the EHD force during the positive-going voltage phase is saturated by the periodical formation of the streamer-type discharge.

Is Cognitive Dissonance an Intrinsic Property of the Human Mind? An Experimental Solution to a Half-Century Debate

Cognitive Dissonance can be conceived both as a concept related to the tendency to avoid internal contradictions in certain situations, and as a higher order theory about information processing in the human mind. In the last decades, this last sense has been strongly surpassed by the former, as nearly all experiment on the matter discuss cognitive dissonance as an output of motivational contradictions. In that sense, the question remains: is cognitive dissonance a process intrinsically associated with the way that the mind processes information, or is it caused by such specific contradictions? Objective: To evaluate the effects of cognitive dissonance in the absence of rewards or any mechanisms to manipulate motivation. Method: To solve this question, we introduce a new task, the hypothetical social arrays paradigm, which was applied to 50 undergraduate students. Results: Our findings support the perspective that the human mind shows a tendency to avoid internal dissonance even when there are no rewards or punishment involved. Moreover, our findings also suggest that this principle works outside the conscious level.

Solving the Economic Dispatch Problem using Novel Particle Swarm Optimization

This paper proposes an improved approach based on conventional particle swarm optimization (PSO) for solving an economic dispatch(ED) problem with considering the generator constraints. The mutation operators of the differential evolution (DE) are used for improving diversity exploration of PSO, which called particle swarm optimization with mutation operators (PSOM). The mutation operators are activated if velocity values of PSO nearly to zero or violated from the boundaries. Four scenarios of mutation operators are implemented for PSOM. The simulation results of all scenarios of the PSOM outperform over the PSO and other existing approaches which appeared in literatures.

Preliminary Chaos Analyses of Explosion Earthquakes Followed by Harmonic Tremors at Semeru Volcano, East Java, Indonesia

Successive event of explosion earthquake and harmonic tremor recorded at Semeru volcano were analyzed to investigate the dynamical system regarding to their eruptive mechanism. The eruptive activity at Semeru volcano East Java, Indonesia is intermittent emission of ash and bombs with Strombolian style which occurred at interval of 15 to 45 minutes. The explosive eruptions accompanied by explosion earthquakes and followed by volcanic tremor which generated by continuous emission of volcanic ash. The spectral and Lyapunov exponent of successive event of explosion and harmonic tremor were analyzed. Peak frequencies of explosion earthquakes range 1.2 to 1.9 Hz and those of the harmonic tremor have peak frequency range 1.5 — 2.2 Hz. The phase space is reconstructed and evaluated based on the Lyapunov exponents. Harmonic tremors have smaller Lyapunov exponent than explosion earthquakes. It can be considerably as correlated complexity of the mechanism from the variance of spectral and fractal dimension and can be concluded that the successive event of harmonic tremor and explosions are chaotic.

Operation Stability Enhancement in Once-Through Micro Evaporators

Equipment miniaturisation offers several opportunities such as an increased surface-to-volume ratio and higher heat transfer coefficients. However, moving towards small-diameter channels demands extra attention to fouling, reliability and stable operation of the system. The present investigation explores possibilities to enhance the stability of the once-through micro evaporator by reducing its flow boiling induced pressure fluctuations. Experimental comparison shows that the measured reduction factor approaches a theoretically derived value. Pressure fluctuations are reduced by a factor of ten in the solid conical channel and a factor of 15 in the porous conical channel. This presumably leads to less backflow and therefore to a better flow control.

A Testbed for the Experiments Performed in Missing Value Treatments

The occurrence of missing values in database is a serious problem for Data Mining tasks, responsible for degrading data quality and accuracy of analyses. In this context, the area has shown a lack of standardization for experiments to treat missing values, introducing difficulties to the evaluation process among different researches due to the absence in the use of common parameters. This paper proposes a testbed intended to facilitate the experiments implementation and provide unbiased parameters using available datasets and suited performance metrics in order to optimize the evaluation and comparison between the state of art missing values treatments.

Constrained Particle Swarm Optimization of Supply Chains

Since supply chains highly impact the financial performance of companies, it is important to optimize and analyze their Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The synergistic combination of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Monte Carlo simulation is applied to determine the optimal reorder point of warehouses in supply chains. The goal of the optimization is the minimization of the objective function calculated as the linear combination of holding and order costs. The required values of service levels of the warehouses represent non-linear constraints in the PSO. The results illustrate that the developed stochastic simulator and optimization tool is flexible enough to handle complex situations.

Design and Analysis of MEMS based Accelerometer for Automatic Detection of Railway Wheel Flat

This paper presents the modeling of a MEMS based accelerometer in order to detect the presence of a wheel flat in the railway vehicle. A haversine wheel flat is assigned to one wheel of a 5 DOF pitch plane vehicle model, which is coupled to a 3 layer track model. Based on the simulated acceleration response obtained from the vehicle-track model, an accelerometer is designed that meets all the requirements to detect the presence of a wheel flat. The proposed accelerometer can survive in a dynamic shocking environment with acceleration up to ±150g. The parameters of the accelerometer are calculated in order to achieve the required specifications using lumped element approximation and the results are used for initial design layout. A finite element analysis code (COMSOL) is used to perform simulations of the accelerometer under various operating conditions and to determine the optimum configuration. The simulated results are found within about 2% of the calculated values, which indicates the validity of lumped element approach. The stability of the accelerometer is also determined in the desired range of operation including the condition under shock.