Abstract: In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.
Abstract: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have gained tremendous importance, in both Military and Civil, during first decade of this century. In a UAV, onboard computer (autopilot) autonomously controls the flight and navigation of the aircraft. Based on the aircraft role and flight envelope, basic to complex and sophisticated controllers are used to stabilize the aircraft flight parameters. These controllers constitute the autopilot system for UAVs. The autopilot systems, most commonly, provide lateral and longitudinal control through Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controllers or Phase-lead or Lag Compensators. Various techniques are commonly used to ‘tune’ gains of these controllers. Some techniques used are, in-flight step-by-step tuning, software-in-loop or hardware-in-loop tuning methods. Subsequently, numerous in-flight tests are required to actually ‘fine-tune’ these gains. However, an optimization-based tuning of these PID controllers or compensators, as presented in this paper, can greatly minimize the requirement of in-flight ‘tuning’ and substantially reduce the risks and cost involved in flight-testing.
Abstract: Schools today face ever-increasing demands in their attempts to ensure that students are well equipped to enter the workforce and navigate a complex world. Research indicates that computer technology can help support learning, implementation of various experiments or learning games, and that it is especially useful in developing the higher-order skills of critical thinking, observation, comprehension, implementation, comparison, analysis and active attention to activities such as research, field work, simulations and scientific inquiry. The ICT in education supports the learning procedure by enabling it to be more flexible and effective, create a rich and attractive training environment and equip the students with knowledge and potential useful for the competitive social environment in which they live. This paper presents the design, the development, and the results of the evaluation analysis of an interactive educational game which using real electric vehicles - toys (material) on a toy race track. When the game starts each student selects a specific vehicle toy. Then students are answering questionnaires in the computer. The vehicles' speed is related to the percentage of right answers in a multiple choice questionnaire (software). Every question has its own significant value depending of the different level of questionnaire. Via the developed software, each right or wrong answers in questionnaire increase or decrease the real time speed of their vehicle toys. Moreover the rate of vehicle's speed increase or decrease depends on the difficulty level of each question. The aim of the work is to attract the student’s interest in a learning process and also to improve their scores. The developed real time game was tested using independent populations of students of age groups: 8-10, 11-14, 15-18 years. Standard educational and statistical analysis tools were used for the evaluation analysis of the game. Results reveal that students using the developed real time control game scored much higher (60%) than students using a traditional simulation game on the same questionnaire. Results further indicate that student's interest in repeating the developed real time control gaming was far higher (70%) than the interest of students using a traditional simulation game.
Abstract: This paper discusses a new heavy tailed distribution based data hiding into discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients of image, which provides statistical security as well as robustness against steganalysis attacks. Unlike other data hiding algorithms, the proposed technique does not introduce much effect in the stegoimage-s DCT coefficient probability plots, thus making the presence of hidden data statistically undetectable. In addition the proposed method does not compromise on hiding capacity. When compared to the generic block DCT based data-hiding scheme, our method found more robust against a variety of image manipulating attacks such as filtering, blurring, JPEG compression etc.
Abstract: In this chapter, we have studied Variation of velocity in incompressible fluid over a moving surface. The boundary layer equations are on a fixed or continuously moving flat plate in the same or opposite direction to the free stream with suction and injection. The boundary layer equations are transferred from partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations. Numerical solutions are obtained by using Runge-Kutta and Shooting methods. We have found numerical solution to velocity and skin friction coefficient.
Abstract: Paleoclimate was reconstructed by the clay mineral
assemblages of shale units of Pabdeh (Paleocene- Oligocene), Gurpi
(Upper Cretaceous), Kazhdumi (Albian-Cenomanian) and Gadvan
(Aptian-Neocomian) formations in the Bangestan anticline. To
compare with clay minerals assemblages in these formations,
selected samples also taken from available formations in drilled wells
in Ahvaz, Marun, Karanj, and Parsi oil fields. Collected samples
prepared using standard clay mineral methodology. They were
treated as normal, glycolated and heated oriented glass slides. Their
identification was made on X-Ray diffractographs. Illite % varies
from 8 to 36. Illite quantity increased from Pabdeh to Gurpi
Formation. This may be due to dominant dry climate. Kaolinite is in
range of 12-49%. Its variation style in different formations could be a
marker of climate changes from wet to dry which is supported by the
lithological changes. Chlorite (4-28%) can also be detected in those
samples without any kaolinite. Mixed layer minerals as the mixture
of illite-chlorite and illite-vermiculite-montmorillonite are varied
from 6 to 36%, decreased during Kazhdumi deposition from the base
to the top. This result may be according to decreasing of illite
leaching process. Vermiculite was also determined in very less
quantity and found in those units without kaolinite. Montmorillonite
varies from 8 to 43%, and its presence is due to terrestrial
depositional condition. Stratigraphical documents is also supported
this idea that clay mineral distribution is a function of the climate
changes. It seems, thus, the present results can be indicated a possible
procedure for ancient climate changes evaluation.
Abstract: Dissolved gas analysis has been accepted as a sensitive, informative and reliable technique for incipient faults detection in power transformers and is widely used. In the last few years this method, which has been recommended by IEEE Power & Energy society, has been applied for fault detection in load tap changers. Regarding the critical role of load tap changers in electrical network and essential of catastrophic failures prevention, it is necessary to choose "condition based preventative maintenance strategy" which leads to reduction in costs, the number of unnecessary visits as well as the probability of interruptions and also increment in equipment reliability. In current work, considering the condition based preventative maintenance strategy, condition assessment of an Elin tap changer was carried out using dissolved gas analysis.
Abstract: In this study integral form and new recursive formulas
for Favard constants and some connected with them numeric and
Fourier series are obtained. The method is based on preliminary
integration of Fourier series which allows for establishing finite
recursive representations for the summation. It is shown that the
derived recursive representations are numerically more effective than
known representations of the considered objects.
Abstract: Tufting carpet is a very suitable substrate for growing
microorganism such as pathogenic microbes, due to the direct touch
with human body, long washing periods and laying on the floor; in
fact there are 3 major problems: To risk human health, Prepare bad
odors and Destruction of the products.. In the presented research, for
investigation of presence most common microbes on polyester
tufting, first goods laid in a public place (in the corridor fair) for 30
days and the existence of some microbes were investigate on it with
two methods of enrichment in nutrient environments such as
thioglycolate and noutrunt brath, and shake the dust off the polyester
tufting onto cultivation mediums such as blood agar and noutrunt
agar. After the microorganism colonics are grown, the colonies were
separated and six microbial tests such as cataloes and sitrat were
carried out in five phases on the colonics for identifying the varieties
of bacteria. As a result of tests, 5 type of bacteria, such as
Escherichia coli, staphylococcus saprophytic as were identified. Each
of the mentioned bacteria can be seriously harmful for the heath of
human.
Abstract: In this paper we discuss the development of an Augmented Reality (AR) - based scientific visualization system prototype that supports identification, localisation, and 3D visualisation of oil leakages sensors datasets. Sensors generates significant amount of multivariate datasets during normal and leak situations. Therefore we have developed a data model to effectively manage such data and enhance the computational support needed for the effective data explorations. A challenge of this approach is to reduce the data inefficiency powered by the disparate, repeated, inconsistent and missing attributes of most available sensors datasets. To handle this challenge, this paper aim to develop an AR-based scientific visualization interface which automatically identifies, localise and visualizes all necessary data relevant to a particularly selected region of interest (ROI) along the virtual pipeline network. Necessary system architectural supports needed as well as the interface requirements for such visualizations are also discussed in this paper.
Abstract: A statistical optimization of the saccharification
process of EFB was studied. The statistical analysis was done by
applying faced centered central composite design (FCCCD) under
response surface methodology (RSM). In this investigation, EFB
dose, enzyme dose and saccharification period was examined, and the
maximum 53.45% (w/w) yield of reducing sugar was found with 4%
(w/v) of EFB, 10% (v/v) of enzyme after 120 hours of incubation. It
can be calculated that the conversion rate of cellulose content of the
substrate is more than 75% (w/w) which can be considered as a
remarkable achievement. All the variables, linear, quadratic and
interaction coefficient, were found to be highly significant, other than
two coefficients, one quadratic and another interaction coefficient.
The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.9898 that confirms a
satisfactory data and indicated that approximately 98.98% of the
variability in the dependent variable, saccharification of EFB, could
be explained by this model.
Abstract: Continuously variable transmission (CVT) is a type of
automatic transmission that can change the gear ratio to any arbitrary
setting within the limits. The most common type of CVT operates on
a pulley system that allows an infinite variability between highest and
lowest gears with no discrete steps. However, the current CVT
system with hydraulic actuation method suffers from the power loss.
It needs continuous force for the pulley to clamp the belt and hold the
torque resulting in large amount of energy consumption. This study
focused on the development of an electromechanical actuated control
CVT to eliminate the problem that faced by the existing CVT. It is
conducted with several steps; computing and selecting the
appropriate sizing for stroke length, lead screw system and etc. From
the visual observation it was found that the CVT system of this
research is satisfactory.
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of
mucus production as a biomarker. This was done by exposing the
mussel Perna perna to various sublethal concentrations of Cu.
Mussels are effective as a bioindicator species as they accumulate Cu
in their tissues. Differences in mucus production rates were evaluated
at different Cu concentrations. The findings of this study indicate that
increasing Cu concentrations had a significant effect on the mucus
production rates over a 24 hour exposure. There were also significant
differences between the mucus production rates at different Cu
concentrations (p < 0.05). Thus, mucus is an essential detoxification
mechanism.
Abstract: Success is a European project that will implement several clean transport offers in three European cities and evaluate the environmental impacts. The goal of these measures is to improve urban mobility or the displacement of residents inside cities. For e.g. park and ride, electric vehicles, hybrid bus and bike sharing etc. A list of 28 criteria and 60 measures has been established for evaluation of these transport projects. The evaluation criteria can be grouped into: Transport, environment, social, economic and fuel consumption. This article proposes a decision support system based that encapsulates a hybrid approach based on fuzzy logic, multicriteria analysis and belief theory for the evaluation of impacts of urban mobility solutions. A web-based tool called DeSSIA (Decision Support System for Impacts Assessment) has been developed that treats complex data. The tool has several functionalities starting from data integration (import of data), evaluation of projects and finishes by graphical display of results. The tool development is based on the concept of MVC (Model, View, and Controller). The MVC is a conception model adapted to the creation of software's which impose separation between data, their treatment and presentation. Effort is laid on the ergonomic aspects of the application. It has codes compatible with the latest norms (XHTML, CSS) and has been validated by W3C (World Wide Web Consortium). The main ergonomic aspect focuses on the usability of the application, ease of learning and adoption. By the usage of technologies such as AJAX (XML and Java Script asynchrones), the application is more rapid and convivial. The positive points of our approach are that it treats heterogeneous data (qualitative, quantitative) from various information sources (human experts, survey, sensors, model etc.).
Abstract: Video streaming over lossy IP networks is very
important issues, due to the heterogeneous structure of networks.
Infrastructure of the Internet exhibits variable bandwidths, delays,
congestions and time-varying packet losses. Because of variable
attributes of the Internet, video streaming applications should not
only have a good end-to-end transport performance but also have a
robust rate control, furthermore multipath rate allocation mechanism.
So for providing the video streaming service quality, some other
components such as Bandwidth Estimation and Adaptive Rate
Controller should be taken into consideration. This paper gives an
overview of video streaming concept and bandwidth estimation tools
and then introduces special architectures for bandwidth adaptive
video streaming. A bandwidth estimation algorithm – pathChirp,
Optimized Rate Controllers and Multipath Rate Allocation Algorithm
are considered as all-in-one solution for video streaming problem.
This solution is directed and optimized by a decision center which is
designed for obtaining the maximum quality at the receiving side.
Abstract: Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the hydrologic cycle and its accurate estimation is essential for hydrological studies. In past, various estimation methods have been developed for different climatological data, and the accuracy of these methods varies with climatic conditions. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key variable in procedures established for estimating evapotranspiration rates of agricultural crops. Values of ET0 are used with crop coefficients for many aspects of irrigation and water resources planning and management. Numerous methods are used for estimating ET0. As per internationally accepted procedures outlined in the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization-s Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56(FAO-56), use of Penman-Monteith equation is recommended for computing ET0 from ground based climatological observations. In the present study, seven methods have been selected for performance evaluation. User friendly software has been developed using programming language visual basic. The visual basic has ability to create graphical environment using less coding. For given data availability the developed software estimates reference evapotranspiration for any given area and period for which data is available. The accuracy of the software has been checked by the examples given in FAO-56.The developed software is a user friendly tool for estimating ET0 under different data availability and climatic conditions.
Abstract: A high-performance Monte Carlo simulation, which
simultaneously takes diffusion-controlled and chain-length-dependent
bimolecular termination reactions into account, is developed to
simulate atom transfer radical copolymerization of styrene and nbutyl
acrylate. As expected, increasing initial feed fraction of styrene
raises the fraction of styrene-styrene dyads (fAA) and reduces that of
n-butyl acrylate dyads (fBB). The trend of variation in randomness
parameter (fAB) during the copolymerization also varies significantly.
Also, there is a drift in copolymer heterogeneity and the highest drift
occurs in the initial feeds containing lower percentages of styrene, i.e.
20% and 5%.
Abstract: In this paper, we study statistical multiplexing of VBR
video in ATM networks. ATM promises to provide high speed realtime
multi-point to central video transmission for telemedicine
applications in rural hospitals and in emergency medical services.
Video coders are known to produce variable bit rate (VBR) signals
and the effects of aggregating these VBR signals need to be
determined in order to design a telemedicine network infrastructure
capable of carrying these signals. We first model the VBR video
signal and simulate it using a generic continuous-data autoregressive
(AR) scheme. We carry out the queueing analysis by the Fluid
Approximation Model (FAM) and the Markov Modulated Poisson
Process (MMPP). The study has shown a trade off: multiplexing
VBR signals reduces burstiness and improves resource utilization,
however, the buffer size needs to be increased with an associated
economic cost. We also show that the MMPP model and the Fluid
Approximation model fit best, respectively, the cell region and the
burst region. Therefore, a hybrid MMPP and FAM completely
characterizes the overall performance of the ATM statistical
multiplexer. The ramifications of this technology are clear: speed,
reliability (lower loss rate and jitter), and increased capacity in video
transmission for telemedicine. With migration to full IP-based
networks still a long way to achieving both high speed and high
quality of service, the proposed ATM architecture will remain of
significant use for telemedicine.
Abstract: Power line channel is proposed as an alternative for broadband data transmission especially in developing countries like Tanzania [1]. However the channel is affected by stochastic attenuation and deep notches which can lead to the limitation of channel capacity and achievable data rate. Various studies have characterized the channel without giving exactly the maximum performance and limitation in data transfer rate may be this is due to complexity of channel modeling being used. In this paper the channel performance of medium voltage, low voltage and indoor power line channel is presented. In the investigations orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) with phase shift keying (PSK) as carrier modulation schemes is considered, for indoor, medium and low voltage channels with typical ten branches and also Golay coding is applied for medium voltage channel. From channels, frequency response deep notches are observed in various frequencies which can lead to reduce the achievable data rate. However, is observed that data rate up to 240Mbps is realized for a signal to noise ratio of about 50dB for indoor and low voltage channels, however for medium voltage a typical link with ten branches is affected by strong multipath and coding is required for feasible broadband data transfer.
Abstract: A robust still image face localization algorithm
capable of operating in an unconstrained visual environment is
proposed. First, construction of a robust skin classifier within a
shifted HSV color space is described. Then various filtering
operations are performed to better isolate face candidates and
mitigate the effect of substantial non-skin regions. Finally, a novel
Bhattacharyya-based face detection algorithm is used to compare
candidate regions of interest with a unique illumination-dependent
face model probability distribution function approximation.
Experimental results show a 90% face detection success rate despite
the demands of the visually noisy environment.