Simulating and Forecasting Qualitative Marcoeconomic Models Using Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed

Creativity: A Motivational Tool for Interest and Conceptual Understanding in Science Education

This qualitative, quantitative mixed-method study explores how students- motivation and interest in creative hands-on activities affected their conceptual understanding of science. The objectives of this research include developing a greater understanding about how creative activities, incorporated into the classroom as instructional strategies, increase student motivation and their learning or mastery of science concepts. The creative activities are viewed as a motivational tool, a specific type of task, which have an impact on student goals. Pre-and-post tests, pre-and-post interviews, and student responses measure motivational-goal theory variables, interest in the activity, and conceptual change. Implications for education and future research will be discussed.

A Comparison of Grey Model and Fuzzy Predictive Model for Time Series

The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Personal Health Assistance Service Expert System (PHASES)

In this paper the authors present the framework of a system for assisting users through counseling on personal health, the Personal Health Assistance Service Expert System (PHASES). Personal health assistance systems need Personal Health Records (PHR), which support wellness activities, improve the understanding of personal health issues, enable access to data from providers of health services, strengthen health promotion, and in the end improve the health of the population. This is especially important in societies where the health costs increase at a higher rate than the overall economy. The most important elements of a healthy lifestyle are related to food (such as balanced nutrition and diets), activities for body fitness (such as walking, sports, fitness programs), and other medical treatments (such as massage, prescriptions of drugs). The PHASES framework uses an ontology of food, which includes nutritional facts, an expert system keeping track of personal health data that are matched with medical treatments, and a comprehensive data transfer between patients and the system.

M-band Wavelet and Cosine Transform Based Watermark Algorithm Using Randomization and Principal Component Analysis

Computational techniques derived from digital image processing are playing a significant role in the security and digital copyrights of multimedia and visual arts. This technology has the effect within the domain of computers. This research presents discrete M-band wavelet transform (MWT) and cosine transform (DCT) based watermarking algorithm by incorporating the principal component analysis (PCA). The proposed algorithm is expected to achieve higher perceptual transparency. Specifically, the developed watermarking scheme can successfully resist common signal processing, such as geometric distortions, and Gaussian noise. In addition, the proposed algorithm can be parameterized, thus resulting in more security. To meet these requirements, the image is transformed by a combination of MWT & DCT. In order to improve the security further, we randomize the watermark image to create three code books. During the watermark embedding, PCA is applied to the coefficients in approximation sub-band. Finally, first few component bands represent an excellent domain for inserting the watermark.

Exploring Perceptions and Practices About Information and Communication Technologies in Business English Teaching in Pakistan

Language Reforms and potential use of ICTs has been a focal area of Higher Education Commission of Pakistan. Efforts are being accelerated to incorporate fast expanding ICTs to bring qualitative improvement in language instruction in higher education. This paper explores how university teachers are benefitting from ICTs to make their English class effective and what type of problems they face in practicing ICTs during their lectures. An in-depth qualitative study was employed to understand why language teachers tend to use ICTs in their instruction and how they are practicing it. A sample of twenty teachers from five universities located in Islamabad, three from public sector and two from private sector, was selected on non-random (Snowball) sampling basis. An interview with 15 semi-structured items was used as research instruments to collect data. The findings reveal that business English teaching is facilitated and improved through the use of ICTs. The language teachers need special training regarding the practices and implementation of ICTs. It is recommended that initiatives might be taken to equip university language teachers with modern methodology incorporating ICTs as focal area and efforts might be made to remove barriers regarding the training of language teachers and proper usage of ICTs.

Mechanism of Alcohol Related Disruption of the Error Monitoring and Processing System

The error monitoring and processing system, EMPS is the system located in the substantia nigra of the midbrain, basal ganglia and cortex of the forebrain, and plays a leading role in error detection and correction. The main components of EMPS are the dopaminergic system and anterior cingulate cortex. Although, recent studies show that alcohol disrupts the EMPS, the ways in which alcohol affects this system are poorly understood. Based on current literature data, here we suggest a hypothesis of alcohol-related glucose-dependent system of error monitoring and processing, which holds that the disruption of the EMPS is related to the competency of glucose homeostasis regulation, which in turn may determine the dopamine level as a major component of EMPS. Alcohol may indirectly disrupt the EMPS by affecting dopamine level through disorders in blood glucose homeostasis regulation.

How Efficiency of Password Attack Based on a Keyboard

At present, dictionary attack has been the basic tool for recovering key passwords. In order to avoid dictionary attack, users purposely choose another character strings as passwords. According to statistics, about 14% of users choose keys on a keyboard (Kkey, for short) as passwords. This paper develops a framework system to attack the password chosen from Kkeys and analyzes its efficiency. Within this system, we build up keyboard rules using the adjacent and parallel relationship among Kkeys and then use these Kkey rules to generate password databases by depth-first search method. According to the experiment results, we find the key space of databases derived from these Kkey rules that could be far smaller than the password databases generated within brute-force attack, thus effectively narrowing down the scope of attack research. Taking one general Kkey rule, the combinations in all printable characters (94 types) with Kkey adjacent and parallel relationship, as an example, the derived key space is about 240 smaller than those in brute-force attack. In addition, we demonstrate the method's practicality and value by successfully cracking the access password to UNIX and PC using the password databases created

A New Method for Estimation of the Source Coherency Structure of Wideband Sources

Based on the sources- smoothed rank profile (SRP) and modified minimum description length (MMDL) principle, a method for estimation of the source coherency structure (SCS) and the number of wideband sources is proposed in this paper. Instead of focusing, we first use a spatial smoothing technique to pre-process the array covariance matrix of each frequency for de-correlating the sources and then use smoothed rank profile to determine the SCS and the number of wideband sources. We demonstrate the availability of the method by numerical simulations.

On the Determination of a Time-like Dual Curve in Dual Lorentzian Space

In this work, position vector of a time-like dual curve according to standard frame of D31 is investigated. First, it is proven that position vector of a time-like dual curve satisfies a dual vector differential equation of fourth order. The general solution of this dual vector differential equation has not yet been found. Due to this, in terms of special solutions, position vectors of some special time-like dual curves with respect to standard frame of D31 are presented.

Matlab/Simulink-Based Transient Stability Analysis Of A Sensorless Synchronous Reluctance Motor

This paper deals with stability analysis for synchronous reluctance motors drive. Special attention is paid to the transient performance with variations in motor's parameters such as Ld and Rs. A study of the dynamic control using d-q model is presented first in order to clarify the stability of the motor drive system. Based on the experimental parameters of the synchronous reluctance motor, this paper gives some simulation results using MATLAB/SIMULINK software packages. It is concluded that the motor parameters, especially Ld, affect the estimator stability and hence the whole drive system.

A Review on Terrestrial Multimedia Communication using OFDM Technology

The development of wireless communication technologies has changed our living style in global level. After the international success of mobile telephony standards, the location and time independent voice connection has become a default method in daily telecommunications. As for today, highly advanced multimedia messaging plays a key role in value added service handling. Along with evolving data services, the need for more complex applications can be seen, including the mobile usage of broadcast technologies. Here performance of a system design for terrestrial multimedia content is examined with emphasis on mobile reception. This review paper has accommodated the understanding of physical layer role and the flavour of terrestrial channel effects on the terrestrial multimedia transmission using OFDM keeping DVB-H as benchmark standard.

Objects Extraction by Cooperating Optical Flow, Edge Detection and Region Growing Procedures

The image segmentation method described in this paper has been developed as a pre-processing stage to be used in methodologies and tools for video/image indexing and retrieval by content. This method solves the problem of whole objects extraction from background and it produces images of single complete objects from videos or photos. The extracted images are used for calculating the object visual features necessary for both indexing and retrieval processes. The segmentation algorithm is based on the cooperation among an optical flow evaluation method, edge detection and region growing procedures. The optical flow estimator belongs to the class of differential methods. It permits to detect motions ranging from a fraction of a pixel to a few pixels per frame, achieving good results in presence of noise without the need of a filtering pre-processing stage and includes a specialised model for moving object detection. The first task of the presented method exploits the cues from motion analysis for moving areas detection. Objects and background are then refined using respectively edge detection and seeded region growing procedures. All the tasks are iteratively performed until objects and background are completely resolved. The method has been applied to a variety of indoor and outdoor scenes where objects of different type and shape are represented on variously textured background.

Facebook Lessons for E-Business Startups

This paper addresses the fundamental requirements for starting an online business. It covers the process of ideation, conceptualization, formulation, and implementation of new venture ideas on the Web. Using Facebook as an illustrative example, we learn how to turn an idea into a successful electronic business and to execute a business plan with IT skills, management expertise, a good entrepreneurial attitude, and an understanding of Internet culture. The personality traits and characteristics of a successful e-commerce entrepreneur are discussed with reference to Facebook-s founder, Mark Zuckerberg. Facebook is a social and e-commerce success. It provides a trusted environment of which participants can conduct business with social experience. People are able to discuss products before, during the after the sale within the Facebook environment. The paper also highlights the challenges and opportunities for e-commerce entrepreneurial startups to go public and of entering the China market.

Pharmaceutical Microencapsulation Technology for Development of Controlled Release Drug Delivery systems

This article demonstrated development of controlled release system of an NSAID drug, Diclofenac sodium employing different ratios of Ethyl cellulose. Diclofenac sodium and ethyl cellulose in different proportions were processed by microencapsulation based on phase separation technique to formulate microcapsules. The prepared microcapsules were then compressed into tablets to obtain controlled release oral formulations. In-vitro evaluation was performed by dissolution test of each preparation was conducted in 900 ml of phosphate buffer solution of pH 7.2 maintained at 37 ± 0.5 °C and stirred at 50 rpm. At predetermined time intervals (0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 20 and 24 hrs). The drug concentration in the collected samples was determined by UV spectrophotometer at 276 nm. The physical characteristics of diclofenac sodium microcapsules were according to accepted range. These were off-white, free flowing and spherical in shape. The release profile of diclofenac sodium from microcapsules was found to be directly proportional to the proportion of ethylcellulose and coat thickness. The in-vitro release pattern showed that with ratio of 1:1 and 1:2 (drug: polymer), the percentage release of drug at first hour was 16.91 and 11.52 %, respectively as compared to 1:3 which is only 6.87 % with in this time. The release mechanism followed higuchi model for its release pattern. Tablet Formulation (F2) of present study was found comparable in release profile the marketed brand Phlogin-SR, microcapsules showed an extended release beyond 24 h. Further, a good correlation was found between drug release and proportion of ethylcellulose in the microcapsules. Microencapsulation based on coacervation found as good technique to control release of diclofenac sodium for making the controlled release formulations.

Comparative Finite Element Simulation of Nonlinear Vibrations and Sensor Output Voltage of Smart Piezolaminated Structures

Two geometrically nonlinear plate theories, based either on first- or third-order transverse shear deformation theory are used for finite element modeling and simulation of the transient response of smart structures incorporating piezoelectric layers. In particular the time histories of nonlinear vibrations and sensor voltage output of a thin beam with a piezoelectric patch bonded to the surface due to an applied step force are studied.

Modeling Directional Thermal Radiance Anisotropy for Urban Canopy

one of the significant factors for improving the accuracy of Land Surface Temperature (LST) retrieval is the correct understanding of the directional anisotropy for thermal radiance. In this paper, the multiple scattering effect between heterogeneous non-isothermal surfaces is described rigorously according to the concept of configuration factor, based on which a directional thermal radiance model is built, and the directional radiant character for urban canopy is analyzed. The model is applied to a simple urban canopy with row structure to simulate the change of Directional Brightness Temperature (DBT). The results show that the DBT is aggrandized because of the multiple scattering effects, whereas the change range of DBT is smoothed. The temperature difference, spatial distribution, emissivity of the components can all lead to the change of DBT. The “hot spot" phenomenon occurs when the proportion of high temperature component in the vision field came to a head. On the other hand, the “cool spot" phenomena occur when low temperature proportion came to the head. The “spot" effect disappears only when the proportion of every component keeps invariability. The model built in this paper can be used for the study of directional effect on emissivity, the LST retrieval over urban areas and the adjacency effect of thermal remote sensing pixels.

Virtual Reality Models used on the Visualization of Construction Activities in Civil Engineering Education

Three-dimensional geometric models have been used to present architectural and engineering works, showing their final configuration. When the clarification of a detail or the constitution of a construction step in needed, these models are not appropriate. They do not allow the observation of the construction progress of a building. Models that could present dynamically changes of the building geometry are a good support to the elaboration of projects. Techniques of geometric modeling and virtual reality were used to obtain models that could visually simulate the construction activity. The applications explain the construction work of a cavity wall and a bridge. These models allow the visualization of the physical progression of the work following a planned construction sequence, the observation of details of the form of every component of the works and support the study of the type and method of operation of the equipment applied in the construction. These models presented distinct advantage as educational aids in first-degree courses in Civil Engineering. The use of Virtual Reality techniques in the development of educational applications brings new perspectives to the teaching of subjects related to the field of civil construction.

Determination of Non Uniform Sinusoidal Microstrip Leaky-Wave Antenna Radiating Performances in Millimeter Band

Here we have considered non uniform microstrip leaky-wave antenna implemented on a dielectric waveguide by a sinusoidal profile of periodic metallic grating. The non distribution of the attenuation constant α along propagation axis, optimize the radiating characteristics and performances of such antennas. The method developped here is based on an integral method where the formalism of the admittance operator is combined to a BKW approximation. First, the effect of the modeling in the modal analysis of complex waves is studied in detail. Then, the BKW model is used for the dispersion analysis of the antenna of interest. According to antenna theory, a forced continuity of the leaky-wave magnitude at discontinuities of the non uniform structure is established. To test the validity of our dispersion analysis, computed radiation patterns are presented and compared in the millimeter band.

Modeling and Identification of Hammerstein System by using Triangular Basis Functions

This paper deals with modeling and parameter identification of nonlinear systems described by Hammerstein model having Piecewise nonlinear characteristics such as Dead-zone nonlinearity characteristic. The simultaneous use of both an easy decomposition technique and the triangular basis functions leads to a particular form of Hammerstein model. The approximation by using Triangular basis functions for the description of the static nonlinear block conducts to a linear regressor model, so that least squares techniques can be used for the parameter estimation. Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) technique has been applied to separate the coupled parameters. The proposed approach has been efficiently tested on academic examples of simulation.