Abstract: In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based
Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent
variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic
variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation
rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate.
We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the
widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition
autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of
ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic
forecasting used in academic research and in research and application
by the governmental and other institutions
Abstract: A mathematical model based on a mass and energy
balance for the combustion in a cement rotary kiln was developed.
The model was used to investigate the impact of replacing about
45 % of the primary coal energy by different alternative fuels.
Refuse derived fuel, waste wood, solid hazardous waste and liquid
hazardous waste were used in the modeling. The results showed that
in order to keep the kiln temperature unchanged, and thereby
maintain the required clinker quality, the production capacity had to
be reduced by 1-15 %, depending on the fuel type. The reason for the
reduction is increased exhaust gas flow rates caused by the fuel
characteristics. The model, which has been successfully validated in a
full-scale experiment, was also used to show that the negative impact
on the production capacity can be avoided if a relatively small part of
the combustion air is replaced by pure oxygen.
Abstract: Waste problem is becoming a future problem all over the world. Magnesium wastes which can be used in recycling processes are produced by many industrial activities. Magnesium borates which have useful properties such as; high heat resistance, corrosion resistance, supermechanical strength, superinsulation, light weight, high coefficient of elasticity and so on. Addition, magnesium borates have great potential in the development of ceramic and detergents industry, whisker-reinforced composites, antiwear, and reducing friction additives.
In this study, using the starting materials of waste magnesium and H3BO3 the hydrothermal method was applied at a moderate temperature of 70oC with different reaction times. Several reaction times of waste magnesium to H3BO3 were selected as; 30, 60, 120, 240 minutes. After the synthesis, X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) techniques were applied to products. As a result, the forms of Admontite [MgO(B2O3)3.7(H2O)] and Mcallisterite [Mg2(B6O7(OH)6)2.9(H2O)] were synthesized.
Abstract: Medicinal plants are most suitable crops for ecological production systems because of their role in human health and the aim of sustainable agriculture to improve ecosystem efficiency and its products quality. Calculations include energy output (contents of energy in seed) and energy inputs (consumption of fertilizers, pesticides, labor, machines, fuel and electricity). The ratio of output of the production to inputs is called the energy outputs / inputs ratio or energy efficiency. One way to quantify essential parts of agricultural development is the energy flow method. The output / input energy ratio is proposed as the most comprehensive single factor in pursuing the objective of sustainability. Sylibum marianum L. is one of the most important medicinal plants in Iran and has effective role on health of growing population in Iran. The objective of this investigation was to find out energy efficiency in conventional and low input production system of Milk thistle. This investigation was carried out in the spring of 2005 – 2007 in the Research Station of Rangelands in Hamand - Damavand region of IRAN. This experiment was done in split-split plot based on randomized complete block design with 3 replications. Treatments were 2 production systems (Conventional and Low input system) in the main plots, 3 planting time (25 of March, 4 and 14 of April) in the sub plots and 2 seed types (Improved and Native of Khoozestan) in the sub-sub plots. Results showed that in conventional production system energy efficiency, because of higher inputs and less seed yield, was less than low input production system. Seed yield was 1199.5 and 1888 kg/ha in conventional and low input systems, respectively. Total energy inputs and out puts for conventional system was 10068544.5 and 7060515.9 kcal. These amounts for low input system were 9533885.6 and 11113191.8 kcal. Results showed that energy efficiency for seed production in conventional and low input system was 0.7 and 1.16, respectively. So, milk thistle seed production in low input system has 39.6 percent higher energy efficiency than conventional production system. Also, higher energy efficiency were found in sooner planting time (25 of March) and native seed of Khoozestan.
Abstract: Scolothrips longicornis Priesner is one of the
important predators of tetranychid mites with a wide distribution
throughout Iran. Life table and population growth parameters of S.
longicornis feeding on two-spotted spider mite, Tetranychus
turkestani Ugarov & Nikolski were investigated under laboratory
condition (26±1ºC, 65±5% R.H. and 16L: 8D). To carry of these
experiments, S. longicornis collections reared on cowpea infested
with T. turkestani were prepared. The eggs with less than 24 hours
old were selected and reared. The emerged larvae feeding directly on
cowpea leaf discs which were infested with T. turkestani. Thirty
females of S. longicornis with 24 hours age were selected and
released on infested leaf discs. They replaced daily to a new leaf disc
and the laying eggs have counted. The experiment continued till the
last thrips had died. The result showed that the mean age mortality of
the adult female thrips were between 21-25 days which is nearly
equal life expectancy (ex) at the time of adult eclosion. Parameters
related to reproductive table including gross reproductive rate, net
reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of natural increase and finite rate of
increase were 48.91, 37.63, 0.26 and 2.3, respectively. Mean age per
female/day, mean fertile egg per female/day, gross hatch rate, mean
net age fertility, mean net age fecundity, net fertility rate and net
fecundity rate were 2.23, 1.76, 0.87, 13.87, 14.26, 69.1 and 78.5,
respectively. Sex ratio of offspring also recorded daily. The highest
sex ratio for females was 0.88 in first day of oviposition. The sex
ratio decreased gradually and reached under 0.46 after the day 26 and
the oviposition rate declined. Then it seems that maintenance of
rearing culture of predatory thrips for mass rearing later than 26 days
after egg-laying commence is not profitable.
Abstract: S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies.
However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead
to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology
forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be
discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other
forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in
technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages,
disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on
3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the
results will be discussed.
Abstract: This paper presents the system identification by
physical-s law method and designs the controller for the Azimuth
Angle Control of the Platform of the Multi-Launcher Rocket System
(MLRS) by Root Locus technique. The plant mathematical model
was approximated using MATLAB for simulation and analyze the
system. The controller proposes the implementation of PID
Controller using Programmable Logic Control (PLC) for control the
plant. PID Controllers are widely applicable in industrial sectors and
can be set up easily and operate optimally for enhanced productivity,
improved quality and reduce maintenance requirement. The results
from simulation and experiments show that the proposed a PID
Controller to control the elevation angle that has superior control
performance by the setting time less than 12 sec, the rise time less
than 1.6 sec., and zero steady state. Furthermore, the system has a
high over shoot that will be continue development.
Abstract: In the last decade, carbohydrates have attracted great
attention as renewable resources for the chemical industry.
Carbohydrates are abundantly found in nature in the form of
monomers, oligomers and polymers, or as components of
biopolymers and other naturally occurring substances. As natural
products, they play important roles in conferring certain physical,
chemical, and biological properties to their carrier molecules.The
synthesis of this particular carbohydrate glycomonomer is part of our
work to obtain biodegradable polymers. Our current paper describes
the synthesis and characterization of a novel carbohydrate
glycomonomer starting from D-glucose, in several synthesis steps,
that involve the protection/deprotection of the D-glucose ring via
acetylation, tritylation, then selective deprotection of the aromaticaliphatic
protective group, in order to obtain 1,2,3,4-tetra-O-acetyl-
6-O-allyl-β-D-glucopyranose. The glycomonomer was then obtained
by the allylation in drastic conditions of 1,2,3,4-tetra-O-acetyl-6-Oallyl-
β-D-glucopyranose with allylic alcohol in the presence of
stannic chloride, in methylene chloride, at room temperature. The
proposed structure of the glycomonomer, 2,3,4-tri-O-acetyl-1,6-di-
O-allyl-β-D-glucopyranose, was confirmed by FTIR, NMR and
HPLC-MS spectrometry. This glycomonomer will be further
submitted to copolymerization with certain acrylic or methacrylic
monomers in order to obtain competitive plastic materials for
applications in the biomedical field.
Abstract: Multimedia security is an incredibly significant area of concern. The paper aims to discuss a robust image watermarking scheme, which can withstand geometric attacks. The source image is initially moment normalized in order to make it withstand geometric attacks. The moment normalized image is wavelet transformed. The first level wavelet transformed image is segmented into blocks if size 8x8. The product of mean and standard and standard deviation of each block is computed. The second level wavelet transformed image is divided into 8x8 blocks. The product of block mean and the standard deviation are computed. The difference between products in the two levels forms the watermark. The watermark is inserted by modulating the coefficients of the mid frequencies. The modulated image is inverse wavelet transformed and inverse moment normalized to generate the watermarked image. The watermarked image is now ready for transmission. The proposed scheme can be used to validate identification cards and financial instruments. The performance of this scheme has been evaluated using a set of parameters. Experimental results show the effectiveness of this scheme.
Abstract: As German companies roll out their standardized
production systems to offshore manufacturing plants, they face the
challenge of implementing them in different cultural environments.
Studies show that the local adaptation is one of the key factors for a
successful implementation. Thus the question arises of where the line
between standardization and adaptation can be drawn. To answer
this question the influence of culture on production systems is
analysed in this paper. The culturally contingent components of
production systems are identified. Also the contingency factors are
classified according to their impact on the necessary adaptation
changes and implementation effort. Culturally specific decision
making, coordination, communication and motivation patterns
require one-time changes in organizational and process design. The
attitude towards rules requires more intense coaching and controlling.
Lastly a framework is developed to depict standardization and
adaption needs when transplanting production systems into different
cultural environments.
Abstract: It has been proven that early establishment of
microbial flora in digestive tract of ruminants, has a beneficial effect
on their health condition and productivity. A probiotic compound,
made from five bacteria isolated from adult bovine cattle, was dosed
to 15 Holstein newborn calves in order to measure its capacity of
improving body weight gain and reduce diarrhea incidence. The test
was performed in the municipality of Cajicá (Colombia), at 2580
m.a.s.l., throughout rainy season, with environmental temperature
that oscillated between 4 to 25 °C. Five calves were allotted to
control (no addition of probiotic). Treatments 1, and 2 (5 calves per
group) received 10 ml Probiotic mix 1 and 2, respectively. Probiotic
mixes 1 and 2 where similar in microbial composition but different in
production process. Probiotics were added to the morning milk and
dosed on a daily basis by a month and then on a weekly basis for
three additional months. Diarrhea incidence was measured by
observance of number of animals affected in each group; each animal
was weighed up on a daily basis for obtaining weight gain and rumen
fluid samples were extracted with oro-esophageal catheter for
determining level of fiber and grain consumption.
Abstract: Since IEC61850 substation communication standard represents the trend to develop new generations of Substation Automation System (SAS), many IED manufacturers pursue this technique and apply for KEMA. In order to put on the market to meet customer demand as fast as possible, manufacturers often apply their products only for basic environment standard certification but claim to conform to IEC61850 certification. Since verification institutes generally perform verification tests only on specific IEDs of the manufacturers, the interoperability between all certified IEDs cannot be guaranteed. Therefore the interoperability between IEDs from different manufacturers needs to be tested. Based upon the above reasons, this study applies the definitions of the information models, communication service, GOOSE functionality and Substation Configuration Language (SCL) of the IEC61850 to build the concept of communication protocols, and build the test environment. The procedures of the test of the data collection and exchange of the P2P communication mode and Client / Server communication mode in IEC61850 are outlined as follows. First, test the IED GOOSE messages communication capability from different manufacturers. Second, collect IED data from each IED with SCADA system and use HMI to display the SCADA platform. Finally, problems generally encountered in the test procedure are summarized.
Abstract: This article gives a short preview of the new software
created especially for palletizing process in automated production
systems. Each chapter of this article is about problem solving in
development of modules in Java programming language. First part
describes structure of the software, its modules and data flow
between them. Second part describes all deployment methods, which
are implemented in the software. Next chapter is about twodimensional
editor created for manipulation with objects in each
layer of the load and gives calculations for collision control. Module
of virtual reality used for three-dimensional preview and creation of
the load is described in the fifth chapter. The last part of this article
describes communication and data flow between control system of
the robot, vision system and software.
Abstract: The tubes in an Ammonia primary reformer furnace
operate close to the limits of materials technology in terms of the
stress induced as a result of very high temperatures, combined with
large differential pressures across the tube wall. Operation at tube
wall temperatures significantly above design can result in a rapid
increase in the number of tube failures, since tube life is very
sensitive to the absolute operating temperature of the tube. Clearly it
is important to measure tube wall temperatures accurately in order to
prevent premature tube failure by overheating.. In the present study,
the catalyst tubes in an Ammonia primary reformer has been modeled
taking into consideration heat, mass and momentum transfer as well
as reformer characteristics.. The investigations concern the effects of
tube characteristics and superficial tube wall temperatures on of the
percentage of heat flux, unconverted methane and production of
Hydrogen for various values of steam to carbon ratios. The results
show the impact of catalyst tubes length and diameters on the
performance of operating parameters in ammonia primary reformers.
Abstract: In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural
Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms
training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product
growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted
regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the
initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum
weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The
forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive
model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting
results outperform significant those of autoregressive model.
Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving
Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the
training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be
replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.
Abstract: Benchmarking cleaner production performance is an
effective way of pollution control and emission reduction in coal-fired
power industry. A benchmarking method using two-stage
super-efficiency data envelopment analysis for coal-fired power plants
is proposed – firstly, to improve the cleaner production performance of
DEA-inefficient or weakly DEA-efficient plants, then to select the
benchmark from performance-improved power plants. An empirical
study is carried out with the survey data of 24 coal-fired power plants.
The result shows that in the first stage the performance of 16 plants is
DEA-efficient and that of 8 plants is relatively inefficient. The target
values for improving DEA-inefficient plants are acquired by
projection analysis. The efficient performance of 24 power plants and
the benchmarking plant is achieved in the second stage. The two-stage
benchmarking method is practical to select the optimal benchmark in
the cleaner production of coal-fired power industry and will
continuously improve plants- cleaner production performance.
Abstract: We present a prototype interactive (hyper) map of strategic, tactical, and logistic options for Supply Chain Management. The map comprises an anthology of options, broadly classified within the strategic spectrum of efficiency versus responsiveness, and according to logistic and cross-functional drivers. They are exemplified by cases in diverse industries. We seek to get all these information and ideas organized to help supply chain managers identify effective choices for specific business environments. The key and innovative linkage we introduce is the configuration of competitive forces. Instead of going through seemingly endless and isolated cases and wondering how one can borrow from them, we aim to provide a guide by force comparisons. The premise is that best practices in a different industry facing similar forces may be a most productive resource in supply chain design and planning. A prototype template is demonstrated.
Abstract: Prickly pear (Opuntia spp) fruit has received renewed
interest since it contains a betalain pigment that has an attractive
purple colour for the production of juice. Prickly pear juice was
prepared by homogenizing the fruit and treating the pulp with 48 g of
pectinase from Aspergillus niger. Titratable acidity was determined
by diluting 10 ml prickly pear juice with 90 ml deionized water and
titrating to pH 8.2 with 0.1 N NaOH. Brix was measured using a
refractometer and ascorbic acid content assayed
spectrophotometrically. Colour variation was determined
colorimetrically (Hunter L.a.b.). Hunter L.a.b. analysis showed that
the red purple colour of prickly pear juice had been affected by juice
treatments. This was indicated by low light values of colour
difference meter (CDML*), hue, CDMa* and CDMb* values. It was
observed that non-treated prickly pear juice had a high (colour
difference meter of light) CDML* of 3.9 compared to juice
treatments (range 3.29 to 2.14). The CDML* significantly (p
Abstract: This paper presents a model for an unreliable
production line, which is operated according to demand with constant
work-in-process (CONWIP). A simulation model is developed based
on the discrete model and several case problems are analyzed using
the model. The model is utilized to optimize storage space capacities
at intermediate stages and the number of kanbans at the last stage,
which is used to trigger the production at the first stage. Furthermore,
effects of several line parameters on production rate are analyzed
using design of experiments.
Abstract: Dill (Anethum graveolens L.) is a popular herb used in
many regions, including Baltic countries. Dill is widely used for
flavoring foods and beverages due to its pleasant spicy aroma. The
aim of this work was to determine the best blanching method for
processing of dill prior to microwave vacuum drying based on
sensory properties, color and volatile compounds in dried product.
Two blanching mediums were used – water and steam, and for part of
samples microwave pretreatment was additionally used. Evaluation of
dried dill volatile aroma compounds, color changes and sensory
attributes was performed. Results showed that blanching significantly
influences the quality of dried dill. After evaluation of volatile aroma
compounds, color and sensory properties of microwave vacuum dried
dill, as the best method for dill pretreatment was established
blanching at 90 °C for 30 s.