Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods

 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Parameters Affecting the Elasto-Plastic Behavior of Outrigger Braced Walls to Earthquakes

Outrigger-braced wall systems are commonly used to provide high rise buildings with the required lateral stiffness for wind and earthquake resistance. The existence of outriggers adds to the stiffness and strength of walls as reported by several studies. The effects of different parameters on the elasto-plastic dynamic behavior of outrigger-braced wall systems to earthquakes are investigated in this study. Parameters investigated include outrigger stiffness, concrete strength, and reinforcement arrangement as the main design parameters in wall design. In addition to being significantly affect the wall behavior, such parameters may lead to the change of failure mode and the delay of crack propagation and consequently failure as the wall is excited by earthquakes. Bi-linear stress-strain relation for concrete with limited tensile strength and truss members with bi-linear stress-strain relation for reinforcement were used in the finite element analysis of the problem. The famous earthquake record, El-Centro, 1940 is used in the study. Emphasize was given to the lateral drift, normal stresses and crack pattern as behavior controlling determinants. Results indicated significant effect of the studied parameters such that stiffer outrigger, higher grade concrete and concentrating the reinforcement at wall edges enhance the behavior of the system. Concrete stresses and cracking behavior are too much enhanced while less drift improvements are observed.

Social Media Research and Its Effect on Our Society

Social media refers to the means of interactions among people in which they create share, exchange and comment contents among themselves in virtual communities and networks. Social media or "social networking" has almost become part of our daily lives and being tossed around over the past few years. It is like any other media such as newspaper, radio and television but it is far more than just about sharing information and ideas. Social networking tools like Twitter, Facebook, Flickr and Blogs have facilitated creation and exchange of ideas so quickly and widely than the conventional media. This paper shows the choices, communication, feeling comfort, time saving and effects of social media among the people.

A Virtual Grid Based Energy Efficient Data Gathering Scheme for Heterogeneous Sensor Networks

Traditional Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) generally use static sinks to collect data from the sensor nodes via multiple forwarding. Therefore, network suffers with some problems like long message relay time, bottle neck problem which reduces the performance of the network. Many approaches have been proposed to prevent this problem with the help of mobile sink to collect the data from the sensor nodes, but these approaches still suffer from the buffer overflow problem due to limited memory size of sensor nodes. This paper proposes an energy efficient scheme for data gathering which overcomes the buffer overflow problem. The proposed scheme creates virtual grid structure of heterogeneous nodes. Scheme has been designed for sensor nodes having variable sensing rate. Every node finds out its buffer overflow time and on the basis of this cluster heads are elected. A controlled traversing approach is used by the proposed scheme in order to transmit data to sink. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is verified by simulation.

Ultra Wideband Breast Cancer Detection by Using SAR for Indication the Tumor Location

This paper presents breast cancer detection by observing the specific absorption rate (SAR) intensity for identification tumor location, the tumor is identified in coordinates (x,y,z) system. We examined the frequency between 4-8 GHz to look for the most appropriate frequency. Results are simulated in frequency 4-8 GHz, the model overview include normal breast with 50 mm radian, 5 mm diameter of tumor, and ultra wideband (UWB) bowtie antenna. The models are created and simulated in CST Microwave Studio. For this simulation, we changed antenna to 5 location around the breast, the tumor can be detected when an antenna is close to the tumor location, which the coordinate of maximum SAR is approximated the tumor location. For reliable, we experiment by random tumor location to 3 position in the same size of tumor and simulation the result again by varying the antenna position in 5 position again, and it also detectable the tumor position from the antenna that nearby tumor position by maximum value of SAR, which it can be detected the tumor with precision in all frequency between 4-8 GHz.

Production Planning for Animal Food Industry under Demand Uncertainty

This research investigates the distribution of food demand for animal food and the optimum amount of that food production at minimum cost. The data consist of customer purchase orders for the food of laying hens, price of food for laying hens, cost per unit for the food inventory, cost related to food of laying hens in which the food is out of stock, such as fine, overtime, urgent purchase for material. They were collected from January, 1990 to December, 2013 from a factory in Nakhonratchasima province. The collected data are analyzed in order to explore the distribution of the monthly food demand for the laying hens and to see the rate of inventory per unit. The results are used in a stochastic linear programming model for aggregate planning in which the optimum production or minimum cost could be obtained. Programming algorithms in MATLAB and tools in Linprog software are used to get the solution. The distribution of the food demand for laying hens and the random numbers are used in the model. The study shows that the distribution of monthly food demand for laying has a normal distribution, the monthly average amount (unit: 30 kg) of production from January to December. The minimum total cost average for 12 months is Baht 62,329,181.77. Therefore, the production planning can reduce the cost by 14.64% from real cost.

General Regression Neural Network and Back Propagation Neural Network Modeling for Predicting Radial Overcut in EDM: A Comparative Study

This paper presents a comparative study between two neural network models namely General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) are used to estimate radial overcut produced during Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM). Four input parameters have been employed: discharge current (Ip), pulse on time (Ton), Duty fraction (Tau) and discharge voltage (V). Recently, artificial intelligence techniques, as it is emerged as an effective tool that could be used to replace time consuming procedures in various scientific or engineering applications, explicitly in prediction and estimation of the complex and nonlinear process. The both networks are trained, and the prediction results are tested with the unseen validation set of the experiment and analysed. It is found that the performance of both the networks are found to be in good agreement with average percentage error less than 11% and the correlation coefficient obtained for the validation data set for GRNN and BPNN is more than 91%. However, it is much faster to train GRNN network than a BPNN and GRNN is often more accurate than BPNN. GRNN requires more memory space to store the model, GRNN features fast learning that does not require an iterative procedure, and highly parallel structure. GRNN networks are slower than multilayer perceptron networks at classifying new cases.

Organization’s Ethics, Job Performance Satisfaction and Effects on Employees’ Engagement and Commitment

This research paper aimed to find out how was the ethical climate in an organization and job performance satisfaction of employees affected employees’ engagement and commitment by using the case study of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Thailand. The population of this research was 4,383 Thai employees of PTTEP, Thailand. From a total of 420 questionnaires sent out, 345 respondents replied. The statistics utilized was mean score and Multiple Regression Analysis. The findings revealed that the respondents had opinion towards ethical climate of their organization, job performance satisfaction and organization engagement and commitment at a high level. The test of hypothesis disclosed the determinant attributes of job performance satisfaction that affected the respondents’ overall level of organization engagement and commitment. The set of these determinant attributes consisted of employees’ responsibilities for duties, organization’s policies and practice, relationship with organization’s commanders, work security and stability, job description, career path and relationship with colleagues. These variables were able to predict the employees’ organization engagement and commitment at 50.6 percent.

A Study of the Growth of Single-Phase Mg0.5Zn0.5O Films for UV LED

Single-phase, high band gap energy Zn0.5Mg0.5O films were grown under oxygen pressure, using pulse laser deposition with a Zn0.5Mg0.5O target. Structural characterization studies revealed that the crystal structures of the ZnX-1MgXO films could be controlled via changes in the oxygen pressure. TEM analysis showed that the thickness of the deposited Zn1-xMgxO thin films was 50–75 nm. As the oxygen pressure increased, we found that one axis of the crystals did not show a very significant increase in the crystallization compared with that observed at low oxygen pressure. The X-ray diffraction peak intensity for the hexagonal-ZnMgO (002) plane increased relative to that for the cubic-ZnMgO (111) plane. The corresponding c-axis of the h-ZnMgO lattice constant increased from 5.141 to 5.148 Å, and the a-axis of the c-ZnMgO lattice constant decreased from 4.255 to 4.250 Å. EDX analysis showed that the Mg content in the mixed-phase ZnMgO films decreased significantly, from 54.25 to 46.96 at.%. As the oxygen pressure was increased from 100 to 150 mTorr, the absorption edge red-shifted from 3.96 to 3.81 eV; however, a film grown at the highest oxygen pressure tested here (200 mTorr).

Morphological Study of Trichomes in Indigofera wightii Grah. ex Wigh & Arn., Indigo Dye Species, Traditionally Used by “Thaisongdam” Thailand

The study aimed to collect morphological data of secretory structures that contribute to taxonomy of Indigofera. Detail features of trichomes occurrence in vegetative and reproductive organs of Indigofera wightii Grah. ex Wigh & Arn., a species traditionally used as source of indigo to dye “Thaisongdam” clothing were investigated. Examination through light microscopy and scanning electrom microscopy were done. Non secretory, T-shaped trichomes appeared throughout surfaces of stems, leaves, flowers and fruits. Secretory or glandular trichomes occurred in two types; one has big cylindrical head and short peduncle, distributed on adaxial surface of sepals and around the pedicel, whereas another possesses smaller cylindrical head but long peduncle. The latter was found on apical surface of immature pods. No phenolic and lipophilic compounds were detected from these glands.

Effects of Molybdenum on Phosphorus Concentration in Rice (Oryza sativa L.)

A hydroponic trial was carried out to investigate the effect of molybdenum (Mo) on uptake of phosphorus (P) in different rice cultivars. The experiment was conducted using a randomized complete-block design, with a split-plot arrangement of treatments and three replications. Four rates of Mo (0, 0.01, 0.1 and 1 mg L−1) and five cultivars (MR219, HASHEMI, MR232, FAJRE and MR253) provided the main and sub-plots, respectively. Interaction of molybdenum×variety was significant on shoot phosphorus uptake (p≤0.01). Highest and lowest shoot phosphorus uptake were seen in Mo3V3 (0.6% plant-1) and Mo0V3 (0.14% plant-1) treatments, respectively. Molybdenum did not have a significant effect on root phosphorus content. According to results, application of molybdenum has a synergistic effect on uptake of phosphorus by rice plants.

Propagation of Nonlinear Surface Waves in Relativistically Degenerate Quantum Plasma Half-Space

The nonlinear self-interaction of an electrostatic surface wave on a semibounded quantum plasma with relativistic degeneracy is investigated by using quantum hydrodynamic (QHD) model and the Poisson’s equation with appropriate boundary conditions. It is shown that a part of the second harmonic generated through self-interaction does not have a true surface wave character but propagates obliquely away from the plasma-vacuum interface into the bulk of plasma.

Reliability-Based Life-Cycle Cost Model for Engineering Systems

The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life-cycle cost of an electric motor.

Influence of Culture Conditions on the Growth and Fatty Acid Composition of Green Microalgae Oocystis rhomboideus, Scenedesmus obliquus, Dictyochlorella globosa

Microalgae due to the ability to accumulate high levels of practically valuable polyunsaturated fatty acids attract attention as a promising raw material for commercial products. The features of the growth processes of cells green protococcal microalgae Oocystis rhomboideus, Scenedesmus obliquus, Dictyochlorella globosa at cultivation in different nutritional mediums were determined. For the rapid accumulation of biomass, combined with high productivity of total lipids fraction yield recommended to use the Fitzgerald medium (Scenodesmus obliquus, Oocystis rhomboideus) and/or Bold medium (Dictyochlorella globosa). Productivity of lipids decreased in sequence Dictyochlorella globosa > Scenodesmus obliquus > Oocystis rhomboideus. The bulk of fatty acids fraction of the total lipids is unsaturated fatty acids, which ac­counts for 70 to 83% of the total number of fatty acids. The share of monoenic acids accounts from 18 to 34%, while the share of unsaturated fatty acids - from 44 to 62% of the total number of unsaturated fatty acids fraction. Among the un­saturated acids dominate α-linolenic acid (C18:3n-3), hexadecatetraenic acid (C16:4) and linoleic acid (C18:2).

Catalytic Cracking of Butene to Propylene over Modified HZSM-5 Zeolites

Catalytic cracking of butene to propylene was carried out in a continuous-flow fixed-bed reactor over HZSM-5 catalysts modified by nickel and phosphorus. The structure and acidity of catalysts were measured by N2 adsorption, NH3-TPD and XPS. The results revealed that surface area and strong acid sites both decreased with increasing phosphorus loadings. The increment of phosphorus loadings reduced the butene conversion but enhanced the propylene selectivity and catalyst stability.

Na Promoted Ni/γ-Al2O3 Catalysts Prepared by Solution Combustion Method for Syngas Methanation

Ni-based catalysts with different amounts of Na as promoter from 2 to 6 wt % were prepared by solution combustion method. The catalytic activity was investigated in syngas methanation reaction. Carbon oxides conversion and methane selectivity are greatly influenced by sodium loading. Adding 2 wt% Na remarkably improves catalytic activity and long-term stability, attributed to its smaller mean NiO particle size, better distribution, and milder metal-support interaction. However, excess addition of Na results in deactivation distinctly due to the blockage of active sites.

Fast Accurate Detection of Frequency Jumps Using Kalman Filter with Non Linear Improvements

In communication systems, frequency jump is a serious problem caused by the oscillators used. Kalman filters are used to detect that jump, despite the tradeoff between the noise level and the speed of the detection. In this paper, an improvement is introduced in the Kalman filter, through a nonlinear change in the bandwidth of the filter. Simulation results show a considerable improvement in the filter speed with a very low noise level. Additionally, the effect on the response to false alarms is also presented and false alarm rate show improvement.

Methanation Catalyst for Low CO Concentration

A Ni-based catalyst supported by γ-Al2O3 was prepared by impregnation method, and the catalyst was used in a low CO and CO2 concentration methanation system. The effect of temperature, pressure and space velocity on the methanation reaction was investigated in an experimental fixed-bed reactor. The methanation reaction was operated at the conditions of 190-240°C, 3000-24000ml•g-1•h-1 and 1.5-3.5MPa. The results show that temperature and space velocity play important role on the reaction. With the increase of reaction temperature the CO and CO2 conversion increase and the selectivity of CH4 increase. And with the increase of the space velocity the conversion of CO and CO2 and the selectivity of CH4 decrease sharply.

Women’s Rights in Conflict with People’s Cultural Autonomy: Problems of Cultural Accommodation

The paper explores the cultural rights accommodation by the state which has left many unresolved problems. The cultural rights sometimes violate the basic individual rights of the members inside the community like women. The paper further explicates certain cultural norms and practices which violates the rights of women inside the community in the name of culture.

Optical Properties of WO3-NiO Complementary Electrochromic Devices

In this study, we developed a complementary electrochromic device consisting of WO3 and NiO films fabricated by rf-magnetron sputtered. The electrochromic properties of WO3 and NiO films were investigated using cyclic voltammograms (CV), performed on WO3 and NiO films immersed in an electrolyte of 1 M LiClO4 in propylene carbonate (PC). Optical and electrochemical of the films, as a function of coloration–bleaching cycle, were characterized using an UV-Vis-NIR spectrophotometer and cyclic voltammetry (CV). After investigating the properties of WO3 film, NiO film, and complementary electrochromic devices, we concluded that this device provides good reversibility, low power consumption of -2.5 V in color state, high variation of transmittance of 58.96%, changes in optical density of 0.81 and good memory effect under open-circuit conditions. In addition, electrochromic component penetration rate can be retained below 20% within 24h, showing preferred memory features; however, component coloring and bleaching response time are about 33s.