Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Using Percentage Change as the Universe of Discourse

Since the pioneering work of Zadeh, fuzzy set theory has been applied to a myriad of areas. Song and Chissom introduced the concept of fuzzy time series and applied some methods to the enrollments of the University of Alabama. In recent years, a number of techniques have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy set theory methods. These methods have either used enrollment numbers or differences of enrollments as the universe of discourse. We propose using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. In this communication, the approach of Jilani, Burney, and Ardil is modified by using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. We use enrollment figures for the University of Alabama to illustrate our proposed method. The proposed method results in better forecasting accuracy than existing models.

A Power-Controlled Scheduling Scheme Using a Directional Antenna in Smart Home

This paper proposes a power-controlled scheduling scheme for devices using a directional antenna in smart home. In the case of the home network using directional antenna, devices can concurrently transmit data in the same frequency band. Accordingly, the throughput increases compared to that of devices using omni-directional antenna in proportional to the number of concurrent transmissions. Also, the number of concurrent transmissions depends on the beamwidth of antenna, the number of devices operating in the network , transmission power, interference and so on. In particular, the less transmission power is used, the more concurrent transmissions occur due to small transmission range. In this paper, we considered sub-optimal scheduling scheme for throughput maximization and power consumption minimization. In the scheme, each device is equipped with a directional antenna. Various beamwidths, path loss components, and antenna radiation efficiencies are considered. Numerical results show that the proposed schemes outperform the scheduling scheme using directional antennas without power control.

Dynamic of Aggressive Behavior at the Context of Reflective Process

The paper which is dedicated to describing the effect made by the “significant other", presents the new model of interrelation between self-reflection, the “significant other" phenomenon and aggression. Tendencies of direction and type frustration response developments in detail are discussed. New results have been received through designing of the original experiment. It is based on modifications of the “Picture – Frustration Study" test by S. Rosenzweig.

Productivity and Energy Management in Desert Urban

Growing world population has fundamental impacts and often catastrophic on natural habitat. The immethodical consumption of energy, destruction of the forests and extinction of plant and animal species are the consequence of this experience. Urban sustainability and sustainable urban development, that is so spoken these days, should be considered as a strategy, goal and policy, beyond just considering environmental issues and protection. The desert-s climate has made a bunch of problems for its residents. Very hot and dry climate in summers of the Iranian desert areas, when there was no access to modern energy source and mechanical cooling systems in the past, made Iranian architects to design a natural ventilation system in their buildings. The structure, like a tower going upward the roof, besides its ornamental application and giving a beautiful view to the building, was used as a spontaneous ventilation system. In this paper, it has been tried to name the problems of the area and it-s inconvenience, then some answers has pointed out in order to solve the problems and as an alternative solution BADGIR (wind-catcher) has been introduced as a solution knowing that it has been playing a major role in dealing with the problems.

Numerical Investigation of Baffle Effect on the Flow in a Rectangular Primary Sedimentation Tank

It is essential to have a uniform and calm flow field for a settling tank to have high performance. In general, the recirculation zones always occurred in sedimentation tanks. The presence of these regions may have different effects. The nonuniformity of the velocity field, the short-circuiting at the surface and the motion of the jet at the bed of the tank that occurs because of the recirculation in the sedimentation layer, are affected by the geometry of the tank. There are some ways to decrease the size of these dead zones, which would increase the performance. One of the ways is to use a suitable baffle configuration. In this study, the presence of baffle with different position has been investigated by a finite volume method, with VOF (Volume of Fluid) model. Besides, the k-ε turbulence model is used in the numerical calculations. The results indicate that the best position of the baffle is obtained when the volume of the recirculation region is minimized or is divided to smaller part and the flow field trend to be uniform in the settling zone.

Credit Risk Management and Analysis in an Iranian Bank

While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s timely payback in Karafarin bank.

Predicting the Impact of the Defect on the Overall Environment in Function Based Systems

There is lot of work done in prediction of the fault proneness of the software systems. But, it is the severity of the faults that is more important than number of faults existing in the developed system as the major faults matters most for a developer and those major faults needs immediate attention. In this paper, we tried to predict the level of impact of the existing faults in software systems. Neuro-Fuzzy based predictor models is applied NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in C programming language. As Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. So, CFS is used for the selecting the best metrics that have highly correlated with level of severity of faults. The results are compared with the prediction results of Logistic Models (LMT) that was earlier quoted as the best technique in [17]. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provide a relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the modeling of the level of impact of faults in function based systems.

Improving TNT Curing Process by Using Infrared Camera

Among the chemicals used for ammunition production, TNT (Trinitrotoluene) play a significant role since World War I and II. Various types of military weapon utilize TNT in casting process. However, the TNT casting process for warhead is difficult to control the cooling rate of the liquid TNT. This problem occurs because the casting process lacks the equipment to detect the temperature during the casting procedure This study presents the temperature detected by infrared camera to illustrate the cooling rate and cooling zone of curing, and demonstrates the optimization of TNT condition to reduce the risk of air gap occurred in the warhead which can result in the destruction afterward. Premature initiation of explosive-filled projectiles in response to set-back forces during gunfiring cause by casting defects. Finally the study can help improving the process of the TNT casting. The operators can control the curing of TNT inside the case by rising up the heating rod at the proper time. Consequently this can reduce tremendous time of rework if the air gaps occur and increase strength to lower elastic modulus. Therefore, it can be clearly concluded that the use of Infrared Cameras in this process is another method to improve the casting procedure.

Multiclass Support Vector Machines for Environmental Sounds Classification Using log-Gabor Filters

In this paper we propose a robust environmental sound classification approach, based on spectrograms features driven from log-Gabor filters. This approach includes two methods. In the first methods, the spectrograms are passed through an appropriate log-Gabor filter banks and the outputs are averaged and underwent an optimal feature selection procedure based on a mutual information criteria. The second method uses the same steps but applied only to three patches extracted from each spectrogram. To investigate the accuracy of the proposed methods, we conduct experiments using a large database containing 10 environmental sound classes. The classification results based on Multiclass Support Vector Machines show that the second method is the most efficient with an average classification accuracy of 89.62 %.

Identifying Corruption in Legislation using Risk Analysis Methods

The objective of this article is to discuss the potential of economic analysis as a tool for identification and evaluation of corruption in legislative acts. We propose that corruption be perceived as a risk variable within the legislative process. Therefore we find it appropriate to employ risk analysis methods, used in various fields of economics, for the evaluation of corruption in legislation. Furthermore we propose the incorporation of these methods into the so called corruption impact assessment (CIA), the general framework for detection of corruption in legislative acts. The applications of the risk analysis methods are demonstrated on examples of implementation of proposed CIA in the Czech Republic.

Microwave Imaging by Application of Information Theory Criteria in MUSIC Algorithm

The performance of time-reversal MUSIC algorithm will be dramatically degrades in presence of strong noise and multiple scattering (i.e. when scatterers are close to each other). This is due to error in determining the number of scatterers. The present paper provides a new approach to alleviate such a problem using an information theoretic criterion referred as minimum description length (MDL). The merits of the novel approach are confirmed by the numerical examples. The results indicate the time-reversal MUSIC yields accurate estimate of the target locations with considerable noise and multiple scattering in the received signals.

Characterisation and Classification of Natural Transients

Monitoring lightning electromagnetic pulses (sferics) and other terrestrial as well as extraterrestrial transient radiation signals is of considerable interest for practical and theoretical purposes in astro- and geophysics as well as meteorology. Managing a continuous flow of data, automisation of the detection and classification process is important. Features based on a combination of wavelet and statistical methods proved efficient for analysis and characterisation of transients and as input into a radial basis function network that is trained to discriminate transients from pulse like to wave like.

Optimal Digital Pitch Aircraft Control

In this paper a controller for the pitch angle of an aircraft regarding to the elevator deflection angle is designed. The way how the elevator angle affects pitching motion of the aircraft is pointed out, as well as, how a pitch controller can be applied for the aircraft to reach certain pitch angle. In this digital optimal system, the elevator deflection angle and pitching angle of the plane are considered to be input and output respectively. A single input single output (SISO) system is presented. A digital pitch aircraft control is demonstrated. A simulation for the whole system has been performed. The optimal control weighting vectors, Q and R have been determined.

H∞ Approach to Functional Projective Synchronization for Chaotic Systems with Disturbances

This paper presents a method for functional projective H∞ synchronization problem of chaotic systems with external disturbance. Based on Lyapunov theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) formulation, the novel feedback controller is established to not only guarantee stable synchronization of both drive and response systems but also reduce the effect of external disturbance to an H∞ norm constraint.

Breakdown of LDPE Film under Heavy Water Absorption

The breakdown strength characteristic of Low Density Polyethylene films (LDPE) under DC voltage application and the effect of water absorption have been studied. Mainly, our experiment was investigated under two conditions; dry and heavy water absorption. Under DC ramp voltage, the result found that the breakdown strength under heavy water absorption has a lower value than dry condition. In order to clarify the effect, the temperature rise of film was observed using non contact thermograph until the occurrence of the electrical breakdown and the conduction current of the sample was also measured in correlation with the thermograph measurement. From the observations, it was shown that under the heavy water absorption, the hot spot in the samples appeared at lower voltage. At the same voltage the temperature of the hot spot and conduction current was higher than that under the dry condition. The measurement result has a good correlation between the existence of a critical field for conduction current and thermograph observation. In case of the heavy water absorption, the occurrence of the threshold field was earlier than the dry condition as result lead to higher of conduction current and the temperature rise appears after threshold field was significantly increased in increasing of field. The higher temperature rise was caused by the higher current conduction as the result the insulation leads to breakdown to the lower field application.

Effects of PEG and NaCl Stress on Two Cultivars of Corn (Zea mays L.) at Germination and Early Seedling Stages

To study on effect of PEG and NaCl stress on germination and early seedling stages on two cultivar of corn, two separated experiment were laid out at physiology laboratory, faculty of Agriculture, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran in 2009. This investigation was performed as factorial experiment under Complete Randomized Design (CRD) with three replications. Cultivar factor contains of two varieties (sweet corn SC403 and Flint corn SC704) and five levels of stress (0, -2, -4, -6 and -8 bar). The principal aim of current study was to compare the two varieties of maize in relative to the stress conditions. Results indicated that significant decrease was observed in percentage of germination, germination rate, length of radicle and plumule and radicle and plumule dry matter. On the basis of the results, NaCl as compared with PEG had more effect on germination and early seedling stage and sweet corn had more resistant than flint corn in both stress conditions.

More on Gaussian Quadratures for Fuzzy Functions

In this paper, the Gaussian type quadrature rules for fuzzy functions are discussed. The errors representation and convergence theorems are given. Moreover, four kinds of Gaussian type quadrature rules with error terms for approximate of fuzzy integrals are presented. The present paper complements the theoretical results of the paper by T. Allahviranloo and M. Otadi [T. Allahviranloo, M. Otadi, Gaussian quadratures for approximate of fuzzy integrals, Applied Mathematics and Computation 170 (2005) 874-885]. The obtained results are illustrated by solving some numerical examples.

Using the Schunt Active Power Filter for Compensation of the Distorted and Umbalanced Power System Voltage

In this paper, we apply the PQ theory with shunt active power filter in an unbalanced and distorted power system voltage to compensate the perturbations generated by non linear load. The power factor is also improved in the current source. The PLL system is used to extract the fundamental component of the even sequence under conditions mentioned of the power system voltage.

An Ant-based Clustering System for Knowledge Discovery in DNA Chip Analysis Data

Biological data has several characteristics that strongly differentiate it from typical business data. It is much more complex, usually large in size, and continuously changes. Until recently business data has been the main target for discovering trends, patterns or future expectations. However, with the recent rise in biotechnology, the powerful technology that was used for analyzing business data is now being applied to biological data. With the advanced technology at hand, the main trend in biological research is rapidly changing from structural DNA analysis to understanding cellular functions of the DNA sequences. DNA chips are now being used to perform experiments and DNA analysis processes are being used by researchers. Clustering is one of the important processes used for grouping together similar entities. There are many clustering algorithms such as hierarchical clustering, self-organizing maps, K-means clustering and so on. In this paper, we propose a clustering algorithm that imitates the ecosystem taking into account the features of biological data. We implemented the system using an Ant-Colony clustering algorithm. The system decides the number of clusters automatically. The system processes the input biological data, runs the Ant-Colony algorithm, draws the Topic Map, assigns clusters to the genes and displays the output. We tested the algorithm with a test data of 100 to1000 genes and 24 samples and show promising results for applying this algorithm to clustering DNA chip data.

Hand Written Digit Recognition by Multiple Classifier Fusion based on Decision Templates Approach

Classifier fusion may generate more accurate classification than each of the basic classifiers. Fusion is often based on fixed combination rules like the product, average etc. This paper presents decision templates as classifier fusion method for the recognition of the handwritten English and Farsi numerals (1-9). The process involves extracting a feature vector on well-known image databases. The extracted feature vector is fed to multiple classifier fusion. A set of experiments were conducted to compare decision templates (DTs) with some combination rules. Results from decision templates conclude 97.99% and 97.28% for Farsi and English handwritten digits.